Saturday, August 10, 2013

Keystone's SPXA150R Daily Chart Indicator

Keystone's SPXA150R indicator is regularly updated on the Short-Term Market Signals page. Price has dropped under 85 which is a feather in the bear's cap.  As equities rally and move higher, the SPXA150R will move higher to reflect the market strength, showing that more and more stocks are moving above their 150-day MA's. When price moves above 80, the markets are in rally mode and moving higher, but, you have to become leery of the upside. When price moves above 85, a strongly bearish signal occurs since markets are becoming toppy. When price moves above 90, it reflects uber bullish euphoria, an easy gift to short the markets without worry, such as at the April and May tops. The recent move higher almost tagged 90 but could not make it up and over. As equities print new all-time highs from May to now, note that the SPXA150R is negatively diverged with less stocks above their 150-day MA's despite the rally (view this as bearish action).

The interplay of price above and below these key 80, 85 and 90 levels provide a great gauge for market behavior and direction. Price is between 85-90 for the last month unable to choose a direction. Above 90 simply sets up an excellent place to short the markets while a move under 85 shows that the bears are already seizing control to the downside. On Wednesday, price dropped under 85. Thus, if price continues to drop and falls under 80, the bears will be running on all cylinders and markets will be moving firmly south. The bulls must push the SPXA150R back above 85 to regain market control. Even if the bulls manage a short recovery move again, the 4-1/2 year rally is long in the tooth, and a move towards 90 will simply signal time to increase short positions.  Considering the recent prices above 90 on the chart, and how the SPXA150R is now trailing lower as equities print new all-time highs, the equity markets have all the appearances of a significant top in place.  Projection is for sideways to sideways lower prices ahead for the broad indexes for weeks and months forward. So, for next week, watch the 85 and 80 levels. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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