Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 1/2/13; First Day of Trading 2013; Fiscal Cliff Averted; PMI; ISM

The fiscal cliff was averted as the House approved the Senate's bill. The republican's are no longer the tax-responsible party, they like taxes just like democrats. Both parties are Keynesian spenders that cannot control themselves. The debt ceiling limit was not addressed in the fiscal cliff bill, as well as spending cuts, so the drama will continue thru January into February.  The large move, perhaps 300 to 500 Dow points, in the markets Monday and on tap today is surprising considering the debt ceiling is not addressed. This type of rally would be more expected if the debt ceiling was part of the bill. Gobal markets are higher on the news, copper is higher.  The European markets are up almost 2%, some of this is catch-up to the wild upside orgy on Monday afternoon in the States. China and India PMI's are encouraging further helping the bulls.

The euro move higher is tame, now at 1.3262. Ditto the dollar, down to 79.4 testing this critical near-term support level. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield moves large up to 1.83% signaling risk on and bullish equity markets. Today is the first day of trading for 2013. New money is put to work to start the year which helps the bulls. Typically, the markets finish the year in the same direction as the first day about 80% of the time. A pattern that typically plays out is that as the first day goes, the first week goes, as the first week goes, the month goes, as January goes, the year goes (January Barometer). Thus, today is an important day. WTIC oil is pushing 93 and Brent oil is over 111 encouraging the bulls with WTIC above the 90 pivot and Brent above the 110 pivot.

Motor Vehicle Sales numbers are on tap today.  Keystone is looking for a weak auto industry in 2013 contrary to all other analysts so today's numbers will be interesting. PMI Manufacturing Index is released a couple minutes before 9 AM. Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing Index are at 10 AM and this will create a market pivot point. ISM is a market mover and should impact the energy markets.

The fiscal cliff was Act One of the Kabuki Theatre. An intermission occurs now as the debt ceiling Act Two will begin shortly. A cliff was avoided but as in all theatrical games, the next challenge is the debt ceiling trash compactor. The walls and ceiling are closing in requiring the president and Congress to continue the political drama thru January into February which provides no real breathing room. Today will be an interesting start to the new year of trading.

2 comments:

  1. Hi KS and Happy New Year. Thanks for all you do for people like me trying to gain an understanding of the markets from a TA perspective. Based on what I look at (as an FYI for anyone intersted: BB, WMA Env 9, +/- 0.5, FS 15,3, RSI 3) Monday created an ideal signal candle and I would normally go in for a short term swing trade, typ 3 - 8 trading days, with confirmation considered as exceeding the high/low of the signal candle. Am nervous with how much of a gap move there is this morning, though. I can't find an example of where SPY went from lower BB on day 1 to near upper on the open of day 2. I'm not looking for investment advice but would appreciate your general thoughts on the need for the market to snap back in the very short term vs being at the very beginning of a strong move from an oversold condition. Thanks!

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  2. Happy New Year Bookie, that is a great question. Keystone posted the SPX chart which shows the BB's and what to look for today. Key resistance above is 1441, 1444, then 1460-1461. So it looks like the mid 1440's will be a battle ground today, and a pivot area.

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