Friday, January 11, 2013

Keystone's Midday Market Action 1/11/13

Brent is 110.36 and WTIC oil keeps teasing 93. This 93 test is key, if 93 fails, the equity markets will sell off, if oil holds 93 support and heads higher, equities will rallyThe 10-year yield is 1.92% so some money is flowing out of Treasuries. Equity markets are flat to begin the day. Tech is not leading the downside so this is bull friendly. TRIN is 1.50 which favors the sell side today. UTIL and GTX remain bearish.  RTH, JJC and VIX remain bullish, so the five parameters say status quo. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which signals bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. SPX S/R is 1476, 1474.51 (intraday high in 2012), 1472, 1468, 1466, 1465.77 (closing high for 2012), 1465, 1461, 1460 and 1457. The euro continues an upside orgy to 1.3352.  Keystone bot EUO opening up a new long position which is short the euro.

Note Added 1/11/13 at 9:50 AM:  The SPX 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts are setting up with negative divergence; they may want to play around at these levels for a couple more hours into lunch time but should top out and roll over. The broad indexes like to move up after the European close at 11:30 AM, like yesterday. The Fed is typically in there pumping in the 10 to 11 AM hour as well to help the bulls so the late morning trade will be interesting. WTIC oil is 93.00, on a tight rope, it has to make a decision, what say you oil, which way do you want to move?

Note Added 1/11/13 at 12:37 PM:  Oil fell under 93 along with the SPX losing the strong 1468 support but both have since recovered. This is an important pivot pair to remember moving forward.  Markets are flat and once again, there is a move higher occurring after the 11:30 AM European close, the SPX moved 2 1/2 points in one-half hour. If the SPX can print 1472 that would lock in the universal negative divergence for the hour and minute charts and create a roll over to the down side. These charts are already negatively diverged over the several day time frame but still have some very short term momo (think minutes and maybe an hour or two). Copper is takin' the pipe today. Watch to see if JJC drops under 46 which would be a feather in the bears cap and create downside market momo. Friday afternoon's tend to be buoyant as short traders pare back positions in front of the weekend, however, the new moon may continue today's negativity. The data shows an increase in inflows into funds but that should come as no surprise since it is the beginning of the year. The question is what do the money managers plan on doing with the money, and, if this is the start of a trend or a one-off. Traders remain uber bullish, note how the broad indexes did not fall after the WFC results this morning, the futures simply remained flat. The bulls do not want to sell the market, the vast consensus fully expects the SPX to be above 1500 at anytime and the upside to continue all year long. Investors Intelligence Survey shows bullish sentiment at notable highs. This clicks with the low VIX and low CPC put/call that verify rampant complacency. The TRIN is 1.32 which favors sellers. Yesterday the TRIN stayed under 0.60 which is uber bullish, despite the flat markets, and sure enough, by the end of the day the markets floated higher. Today is the opposite.  The TRIN favors sellers today so perhaps the sell side will appear this afternoon. This action would jive with the set-ups on the hourly and minute charts.

Note Added 1/11/13 at 1:03 PM:  Oil is 93.31 well above 93. SPX is 1469.61 above the strong 1468 support. Price is simply playing in between the 1468-1472 S/R. The XEU chart shows the euro launching from 130.30 to 133.65, a 2.6% gain, in less than two days time, a phenomenal move for a currency. Draghi has the touch, when he speaks, markets rally. Keystone added more EUO to this long trade that was opened today. The EUO minute and hourly charts hint at a move up from here, 18.52, due to positive divergence, and, conversely, the XEU euro chart and SPX charts show negative divergence in the same time frames.

Note Added 1/11/13 at 1:21 PM:  The 10-year yield is 1.87%. It was 1.92% when today's equity session started.  Quite a move.  If folks are placing their money into Treasuries, that is money not flowing into stocks.

Note Added 1/11/13 at 2:31 PM:  WTIC oil now at 93.55, oil is moving up. The SPX is at 1471, perhaps it can finally squeeze out the 1472 to lock in the negative divergence on the hourly and minute charts, then the SPX can roll over in earnest. Bulls are pumping oil to try and keep the markets buoyant.  Oil now 93.65, look at it go.

Note Added 1/11/13 at 3:43 PM:  Oil is 93.75 creating market buoyancy. The SPX took all day but came up to 1472. Wow, what a set-up, the SPX monthly, weekly, daily, 2-hour, 1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute charts are all in negative divergence with the higher price high at 1472 now occurring.  This is an inflection where you either believe in an upside explosive move to occur, or, a pullback. The charts clearly say pull back.  The trader sentiment and bullish sentiment clearly believe in an upside rocket launch. It is very impressive to see negative divergence on the SPX across all time frames which means trouble ahead. The markets are going to give everyone something to think about over the weekend, but, come Monday, will there still be time to prepare? It appears prudent to pare back long positions, add shorts or buy insurance thru puts, and raise cash. In fact, it is time to soul-search again.  Study each long position you own and, search your soul, asking yourself, would you be content in owning that long position for a couple years (if a serious market sell-off occurs)?

Note Added 1/11/13 at 4:09 PM:  The SPX closes at the strong 1472 S/R for the second day in a row adding to the drama.  Copper, JJC, will be key next week. Commodities, oil and copper movement will be dictated Sunday night by any news out of China.  If copper and oil take another drop come Monday morning, that will create market negativity and serve as a catalyst for the downside.  Conversely, if China releases happy talk and copper and commodities explode higher overnight Sunday, then the upside orgy move for markets may be on tap surprisingly rewarding the traders that are in a bullish euphoric hypnotic haze. At this juncture, the markets are all set up to roll over at the opening bell on Monday and sell off. A feather is all that is required to push the markets over the edge. With the negative divergence set up with the SPX charts, if there ever was a time for a major market event to occur, Monday would be a likely candidate. Watch oil and copper overnight Sunday. Time for a slice of apple pie, or two.

20 comments:

  1. Not intraday but SPY hit 147.43 after hours yesterday, equivalent of a hair under SPX 1474.50. My short at 147.44 didn't fill so I get credit for the gap down this morning.

    Perhaps better short opportunities before Tuesday close. Right now looks to be more value in short Euro or long Treasuries rather than short stocks.

    New moon at 2:44 Eastern this afternoon.

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    1. The new moon timing is very interesting, with one hour of trading remaining in the day.

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  2. Great week for trading opportunities in Gold. I had couple decent trades in oil today. Got some GT @ 13.75 and MOS early on the open missed my sell stop by a few pennys now that's drawn down by two dimes but I'll hold in here for a little while parity is nearing. VIX has droped from 13.75 and the metals and oil appear to be basing so we should as you say KS stumble sideways.

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  3. Sounds good MCAP, VIX looks like it wants to start moving up again, we shall see. TRIN is 1.35 liking the sell side today so that may provide oomph for bears.

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  4. Dear KS - what's the significance of new moon. Is it bullish or bearish for the market? Thank you!

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  5. You will hear technicians and seasonality folks tout both sides of the new and full moon projections. But Keystone's data, which will need updated in the weeks ahead for the last year or two, showed that markets tend to be bearish the day or so in front of the new moon about 66% of the time, and that markets tend to be bullish in front of the full moon about 66% of the time. It is not something to put a lot of credence into but sometimes it is helpful since it is a tool that tells you the subtle background current in the markets.

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  6. Last 16 NM's effect on the SPX -
    2 - up 1% then down the next few days
    11 - flat then down or immediately down
    3 - up, however, SPX was in significant down trend so the NM created a reversal.
    Since we are in an uptrend, history of NM favors a move down.......not sure how long?

    Also, the last 16 NM's vs FM's if you sold short or went to cash on the NM and held until the FM, then went long on the FM and held until the next NM, you made money 26 out 32 times! - 80%.........

    VOODOO.....

    Chart -

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62771557902&a=235869990&r=1349742974899&cmd=print

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    1. Interesting stuff Dan, especially playing the cycle you describe. Something that is repeatable like that can be used say for 10% of the portfolio, and simply followed as a standard continuous trade, thereby, it would reduce the overall risk of the entire portfolio, simply using that as an ongoing trade.

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    2. KS,
      I figured in addition to many other indictors it could be useful.....for instance, right now I am n the correction camp and that agrees with going bearish this afternoon for the NM......
      Thanks.

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    3. Hello Daniel or KS,
      I am still learning TA, do you mind to tell me what is NM and FM stand for? Thx!

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    4. Dan is just using that to abbreviate new moon and full moon, NM and FM, respectively. The trading technique is very intriguing and thinking about it, perhaps a period that would maintain the short side until the day after the new moon, then flip long, then ride that into the day after the full moon where the flip to the short side occurs. Very interesting, it would all have to be studied and back tested.

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    5. Hi Guys, the link to the chart I included above gives about 1.5 years worth of data. It also includes NYMO Bollinger bands so you can watch when the bands are penetrated to the up or downside, another interesting signal. (The chart was copied off another blog.....it is not my chart.)

      KS, Thanks for giving us your wisdom about the markets and for this blog!!!

      DW

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  7. KS, does the current melt up have the feel of January last year? There was no pull back at all in that melt up. I don't think the SPX or RUT ever retraced back to the middle BB after violation in that melt up.

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    1. Last year was Operation Twist in late summer 2011, then the ECB got into the quantitative easing act with LTRO1 and 2, they turned the steam on in December 2011, that created the thrust into and thru early 2012, the AAPL earnings the second or third week of January catapulted the markets since the earnings were blow out and Apple is such a huge portion of the Nasdaq and SPX. So, we have QE this year, although the ECB's OMT is on hold since Spain has not yet asked for a bailout. The Fed's QE3 and QE4 is in play. Apple earnings will likely not have the impact that they did last year, the competition has already caught them. Markets feel like a significant top, uber confidence and bullishness, no worry about downside, folks do not even want to buy cheap insurance with the low VIX, they figure it is nothing but wine and roses ahead. The move lower may be quite dramatic. Copper, JJC, will likely be very important next week. Likewise financials, XLF, and retail, RTH. As you say, the upper BB violations also need to see a pull back. The indications stack up that a top is here, but the markets continue higher. That's trading.

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  8. Hy KS,

    I know you (and others) certainly have a lot more trading experience than me or others but I think that China will not announce anything this weekend (RRR cut or something else) mainly due to the high inflation data announced today.
    This market is one of the slickest thing I've ever seen... but mainly due to the clear setup of a fall in markets it won't happend now.
    The "surpise" element is missing, the market uses to eat the weak hands taking them by surprise ... a pullback down to 1452-1455 might appear, but not a sell-off certainly .... this is my take.

    V.

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    1. one more thing: can you please tell us what was CPC level as per today (at the end of Friday) ?

      Thank you in advance,
      V.

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    2. V, you can check the CPC put/call each day on www.stockcharts.com by typing in $CPC and the chart will come up. Friday's close shows a drop from 0.78 down to a closing price at 0.72, uber complacency. Traders are simply convinced that markets will not go down. Even with the VIX in the cellar, traders see no reason to buy the cheap protection since markets will never go down again. A CPC at 0.72 places a smile on anyone's face that is short the markets. Sometimes it takes a few days but a big sell off should be at the doorstep now. It may take on the form of a sharp and quick down move, folks are surprised, so they jump from longs and jump into the short side now that they see the markets can drop quickly, then whammo, reverse and strong up again, crushing all new shorts entering, then traders jump on the long side saying it all was simply a quickie scare and there is no worries now, then hard down for an extended period of time to crush the longs. The other path would be simply extended down from here. Lots of wildness is ahead no doubt.

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    3. Thank you, KS

      V.

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  9. KS, here's one of the comments from your Tom DeMark article link:

    DeMark Trend Exhaustion Sequential™ (red 13 arrow on the chart) sell
    signals were registered today for both S&P futures and cash.
    http://i50.tinypic.com/2vrvinq.png

    This would jive with your across the board negative divergence on the SPX at the close today. What do you think KS? Bears have been disappointed before. I just can't think of any event that would sell this market off though. It all sounds too easy as V. says. I think the upside orgy will continue next week.

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    1. That is very interesting, thus, Europe and now the SPX in the States have triggered the sell signals. Sometimes markets do not need a catalyst, they can simply collapse on their own hype. Tom now shows exhaustion in place so this places into question how much juice would be available for a move up form here, probably not much. In markets anything can happen, but it feels very ripe now, and with the CPC at 0.72 and folks refusing to buy protection, well, hang on to your hat.

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