Sunday, January 13, 2013

SPX Monthly Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence QE's Follow Reverse Fibonacci Sequence

The SPX charts across all time frames are lined up with negative divergence, something that does not occur that often. Typically, there is always a time frame out of sync but now they are all lined up negatively which is very encouraging for bears.  The red rising wedge is bearish. The stochastics are overbot. The indicators are in universal negative divergence now after the matching price high was printed on Friday.  The bulls are trying to push the RSI and MACD line higher to eek out some more short term upside but the action appears exhausted.  The apex of the wedge tops out in this 1460-1500 zone.

Price is at levels not seen since the 2007 market top and note how strong the S/R is at this important 1460-1480 zone.  As mentioned several times over recent weeks, the quantitiative easing actions are following a Fibonacci Sequence in reverse; 13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1. QE1 in March 2009 lasted 13 months, QE2 was 8 months, Operation Twist and LTRO 1 and 2 was 5 months, ECB's OMT and QE3 Infinity is 3 months (this past summer), and now, QE4 Infinity and Beyond, 2 months, mid November to now. There is no further juice in the Fibonacci machine, perhaps a couple one month rally bounces as the markets top out early this year and roll over. Pay attention to the 10 and 12-month MA's, both are very key signal lines and the 12-month MA is one of Keystone's Cyclical Turn Signals. If the SPX should drop under the 12-month MA, the cliff, or the waterfall, whatever you prefer, at 1400, the markets drop into a cyclical bear market pattern and are in huge long-term trouble.

Projection is for price to collapse out of the rising wedge at anytime, now thru February, and for extended downside for the weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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