The 8 MA stabbed down thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours an days ahead. UTIL remains elevated well above 467.24 and the VIX is flat well under 16, however, so the bulls are not worried. With the drop thru SPX 1500 an acceleration lower to 1495-1496 would be expected, however, the dip buyers are tripping over each other to buy and support the market. The TRIN is 1.23 favoring continued selling today. AAPL is flat at 455. Tech is not leading the broad markets lower today so that helps the bulls. The euro remains elevated at 1.3581 which keeps equities elevated. WTIC oil dropped today, now at 97.23. The SPX and oil move in lock-step so lower oil is lower equities or higher oil is higher equities. The 10-year is 1.99% so equity bears are in biz if the yield marches lower, equity bulls are happy if yields rise. Check that, the 10-year yield is down one more tick to 1.98%.
Note Added 1/31/13 at 12:13 PM: Markets meandering sideways. TRIN is 1.22 so this will keep the bears in biz all day long, 1.22 or higher. Keystone bot NEM opening a new long trade. The positive divergence is attractive although price may leak to 42.20, if so, that would serve as an add level. The 42.9 was a gap fill.
Note Added 1/31/13 at 2:38 PM: The bulls are curling the 8 MA on the 30-minute chart upwards and aiming to spoil the bears day. The utilities remain elevated, ditto copper although JJC is down today, and the VIX is flat at 14.25. The bears do not have any oomph to the downside. The bulls are nibbling as the SPX drops under 1500 but they are not self-assured either. TRIN is 1.05 almost directly on the 1.00 neutral line so it does not even want to pick a side today. Markets stumble sideways. Traders are contemplating positions ahead of the Monthly Jobs Report less than 18 hours away.
Note Added 1/31/13 at 3:52 PM: UTIL at 474. VIX 14.35. Keystone bot more NEM.
Note Added 1/31/13 at 4:16 PM: Markets skid out sideways waiting for the Jobs Report. The January Barometer is correct two-thirds of the time and it says as January goes so goes the year. January was a blow-out month for bulls. The bears are content this evening since they pushed the 8 MA under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart to signal bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. UTIL closed at 474 which helps the bulls. Ditto JJC. The VIX did not move higher today to help the bears but it did not move lower either. TRIN is 1.10. Markets are frozen like a deer in the headlights but should break hard, one way or the other, on the Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment and ISM Mfg Index are going to cause additional intensity at 10 AM EST tomorrow. Sure is a lot of folks, in fact everybody and his brother, and his dog also, that figure the market pullback will be shallow.
wow, it's been 10 whole trading days since the 8MA was below the 34MA on the 30min chart; what a bull run!
ReplyDeleteAnd the 10-day run was from the stutter step on 1/15/13 where the bulls would not even permit the bears to shine for one day. So eliminating that slight stutter step, takes the last cross to the 9th, 16 days ago, but yes, the bulls drove the bus for quite a while to start the year.
ReplyDeleteyeah you are right; that's quite the drive... Still thinking here that it wants to see 1520s before an even larger correction will occur. Need (more) negative divergence on the daily; not only hourly an smaller time frames.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Jobs Report at 8:30 AM will be the big decider.
ReplyDeleteKS, hunch jobs will disappoint no matter. 10 year technically ready to go back down to 1.9. UTIL also ready to pause but isn't finished going higher. Financials begging to be shot and sold short here. Feb 1 could be psychological change in calendar to spark a sell off...for 2-3 days
ReplyDeleteMy record of predictions lately is about as poor as Punxsutawney Phil's (39% correct says Wiki!), but I think we could close down today and drop further after a poor jobs report tomorrow morning. But I think you have to buy that dip because of the first-of-the-month and Friday afternoon buoyancy. It also looks as if the utes are being pumped up for next week.
ReplyDeletefrom an EW perspective; this is either a 4 of larger degree 3rd wave; or a larger degree 4th wave. The first will only produce minor pullbacks; more like today; the latter can send the SPX down 30-40points from its 1510 high, but either way new highs above 1510 are to be expected.
ReplyDeleteIt's just consolidation until a turn is confirmed. Would take maybe 1493ish to confirm a small wave 4 down, or 1465ish to confirm something larger.
ReplyDeleteTill then, lots of wave count possibilities to take us to 1520, 1550, 1560.
Or more organically, they wait until John and Jenny IRA jump in before they yank the rug out.