Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers for Trading the Week of 8/6/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week:  Draghi (ECB) turned out to be more bark than bite last week.  Traders are waiting to see the formal request by Spain for a bailout. This will open the door for funding help and rumors of the request caused the majority of the Friday stock market rally. The problem is that if Spain is saved, the ESM, EFSF and other funds simply have no further money available should contagion strike with other nations especially Italy. Continue watching the 10-year yields for Spain and Italy.  Bank runs and European riot worries remain a concern. Stress tests addressing the Spain situation, performed by an independent auditor, are due the following week, around 8/15/12. The ECB rate decision and press conference is 9/6/12. The European news flow directly dictates global market direction. The Fed drama will take center stage at Jackson Hole on 8/31/12 and then the FOMC meeting, rate decision and press conference on 9/12/12. Congress is on recess (vacation) for about five weeks which is bullish for markets.  Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets. Earnings season remains in full swing. Many companies warned so the bar is low enough to provide easier beats. The trend continues with beats on the bottom line but the top line revenue numbers continue to miss showing that the overall economy remains sick underneath the surface. Companies do not need to hire workers if sales are decreasing. At the same time, laying off more workers will boost the bottom line EPS numbers. Do you notice a trend?  Earnings to watch this week include DIS, the uranium miners to gauge the nuclear industry, shipping to gauge the global economy-watch DRYS, rubber-CTB, and retailers (such as M, RL, KSS and JWN-gauge the wealthy spending) to see if there are any cracks forming with consumer spending.  The Retail Sales number occurs a week from now. Note that there is an absence of significant economic data this week, and also the earnings are relatively void of heavy hitters, except for the Mouse House on Tuesday, so the European tape bombs (news) will take on added importance and impact the markets more forcibly.

·         Monday, 8/6/12: Chairman Bernanke speaks 9 AM. Watch Spain. Earnings: AWR, BXP, CF, CHK, CLNE, CUR, CUTR, DDS, RAIL, FTEK, HCA, HEK, LORL, MDR, MR, OPXA, PRGN, SIGA, SOHU, THQI, TIE, TSN, URZ, VNO.

·         Tuesday, 8/7/12: 3-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Chairman Bernanke speaks 2:30 PM.  Consumer Credit 3 PM. Earnings: AMLN, ANTH, BID, CRZO, CDE, CREE, DCTH, DIS, EMR, ETP, ENOC, EXPD, FOSL, GMO, HL, INVE, JAZZ, KOPN, LRAD, MUX, MELA, MYRG, NAT, ODP, OREX, PCLN, KWK, RAX, RENN, SIRI, THC, URS, XNPT, Z.

·         Wednesday, 8/8/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Earnings: ALXA, ALJ, ANR, AMRN, ATRS, CCC, CLH, CYTX, DF, DISH, DRYS, EGLE, ECTE, FSYS, GXP, HFC, KERX, LGND, M, NRG, PANL, RL, SJT, SODA, SFUN, SPPI, TDW, WFR.

·         Thursday, 8/9/12: International Trade and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Wholesale Trade 10 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction 1 PM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: AAP, ARNO, BDSI, CPST, CFN, CECE, CDXS, CEP, CTB-rubber makes the world go ‘round, CRTX, DV, ELX, EVEP, FIO, HOGS, IDIX, JRCC, KSS, LGF, LUNA, NABI, NKTR, JWN, NVDA, OSIS, QTWW, RICK, RGLD, TK, TGP, TGX, VPHM.

·         Friday, 8/10//12: Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM.  Treasury Budget 2 PM. Earnings: ALTI, JCP-the debacle, OXGN, SOL, RTK, SDT, SYNM, URRE, XIN.

·         Tuesday, 8/14/12: PPI and Retail Sales 8:30 AM.

·         Wednesday, 8/15/12: Spanish stress tests due from independent auditor. CPI 8:30 AM.  Industrial Production 9:15 AM.

·         Thursday, 8/16/12: Jobless Claims and Housing Starts 8:30 AM. Philly Fed 10 AM.

·         Friday, 8/17/12: Consumer Sentiment 10 AM.

·         Wednesday, 8/22/12: Existing Home Sales 10 AM. FOMC Minutes 2 PM.

·         Thursday, 8/23/12: Jobless Claims and New Home Sales 10 AM.

·         Friday, 8/24/12: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM.

·         Tuesday, 8/28/12: Consumer Confidence 10 AM.

·         Friday, 8/31/12: Consumer Sentiment 10 AM. Jackson Hole Fed drama begins-listen for news from Chairman Bernanke hinting at QE3, or not. EOM.

·         Monday, 9/3/12: U.S. Markets are Closed in Observance of Labor Day.

·         Tuesday, 9/4/12: U.S. Markets Reopen for Trading.

·         Thursday, 9/6/12: ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference—Draghi drama. 

·         Wednesday, 9/12/12: FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference—Bernanke drama. AAPL releases new iPad details.