Keystone's Midday Market Action 8/31/12; EOM; Chairman Bernanke Talks from Jackson Hole Symposium

SPX moves up thru the 20-day MA at 1407.60, a feather in the bulls cap, and moves up to 1410 to signal the all clear for more upside, but considering the Bernanke talk is only minutes away, price is idling for now. Copper, JJC, moved above 43.70, now printing 43.78, so the bulls are determined to have a happy weekend. With JJC above 43.70, today will belong to the bulls. Chicago PMI slightly disappoints. Consumer Sentiment is 9:55 AM then Bernanke and Factory Orders at 10 AM. Consensus is that Bernanke will not offer much today. Hang on to your hat, it is time to venture into the lion's den.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 9:49 AM:  JJC loses 43.70 now printing 43.63, this is more important than what you see in the broad markets, it signals bearishness today but lots of fits and starts should occur over the coming minutes.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 9:55 AM:  Note the back kiss of the SPX 20-day MA at 1407.45. Consumer Sentiment is better than expected. Keystone needs his heart pills as the palpatations increase. Nurse Cratchett is wheeling the difibrillator closer to the computer.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 10:30 AM: Keystone wants a refund form the Jackson Hole Symposium. As usual, an event can never live up to its high expectations. Bernanke says a whole lot of nothing. Markets sold off a few points but are now traveling sideways. Tech is not leading higher today so the upside does not have oomph.  Copper remains weak with JJC at 43.47. The 8 MA remains below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which is bearish for the hours and days ahead.  The TRIN is printing uber lows this morning, now at 0.41, so this will beg for a snap back move of broad market selling either this afternoon or on Tuesday. NYAD printed +1900 today, high, but not uber high, it does show bullish enthusiasm, so there remains many complacent traders afoot. Watch the key parameters today, since JJC is under 43.70, the market bears only need one of the following to cooperate, SOX 390, VIX 18.35, UTIL 464 or NYA 7836, but alas, all four continue to prefer the bull camp, so the market sideways malaise continues. The 20-day MA is an important support and resistance (S/R) level for all tickers and indexes, use it for all your plays. The SPX 20-day MA is 1407.45 and the current print is 1407.54.  The price action above or below the 20-day MA is important.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 11:07 AM:  Markets move higher with the SPX testing the strong resistance at 1413 but JJC remains bearish.  Tech and the broad markets are up the same amount so tech continues to not lead the markets higher. Looks like a hazy lazy day of summer is shaping up as traders think about the weekend barbeque and potentially sneaking out the back door when no one is looking. Markets are stumbling sideways but if JJC moves above 43.70, the SPX will run towards 1419. VIX is at 17 printing a LOD of 16.92.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 11:21 AM:  The 8 MA is coming up to cross up thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, perhaps over the next hour, which would be a feather in the bull's cap for the coming hours and days. The ony way the bears can stop the upward move in the 8 MA would be if the SPX price sharply reversed to the downside now. JJC is at 43.60, bearish by ten cents and preventing the markets from moving higher. TRIN is down at 0.36. The prior times that TRIN was this low marked the top in the SPX in mid-June and the top in the SPX in late July.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 1:37 PM:  The SPX is dancing around the strong 1403 S/R level. JJC is at 43.69 playing around at that 43.70 level. UTIL is at 467.36, remember, Keystone said to watch for 467.35 at 4 PM (since this number is important for next week), perhaps the utilities are already setting up that fight.  The 8 MA moved up thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart at 12 noon, bullish, but the 8 MA is now curled back down again. Watch this chart thru the close to see if the bears wrestle back control, or not.  The SPX is under the 20-day MA at 1407.27 which is bear friendly. Tech continues to move with the broad markets, both are up about 0.3% today, not providing an advantage to either market direction. JJC 43.70 is important, the fight continues. Gold obviously believes in QE3 catapulting higher to 1690 today.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 3:30 PM: The pre-holiday upward bias continues. JJC is sitting directly on top of 43.70.  The 8 and 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart are on top of each other now as well. The resolution of these two tools will tell a lot for the set up for next week.  Also, if UTIL closes under 467.35, that portends bearishness when markets begin trading again on Tuesday.

Note Added 8/31/12 at 4:07 PM:  JJC closes at 43.71, bullish. The 8 finishes above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, bullish. UTIL closes above 467.35, bullish to start next week (watch this number all next week). Helicopter Ben, pre-holiday happiness, the blue moon tonight, it is all coming up roses for the bulls today. The entire week the SPX moved sideways thru the 1399-1413 range, thus, the move from this range will be significant. SPX closed below the 20-day MA at 1407.40, bearish. Gold hits the highest level in five months at 1694 breaking out, moving up and away from the descending triangle pattern and now far above its important 65-week MA. Bernanke pushed the dollar lower today which pushes gold, commodities and equities higher. Happy Labor Day. Time to light the barbeque.