The vertical side of the triangle is about 3.8 so 1417.35-ish + 3.8 = 1421-1422 as the target for the ascending triangle breakout. The day ended so the final chapter of the story was not written, the bell told everyone to place pencils down. Price should back kiss the 1417.35 due to the multiple attempts at a break thru; the price action respected this level with no less than about one dozen touches since yesterday afternoon. So time ran out with the price wanting to target 1421-1422 and also needing to perform a back test of 1417.35. Traders can think about that one all weekend long. Remember, the closing high for the year, and intraday high, are 1419.04 and 1422.38, respectively.
In April this year, as the highs were occurring, an interesting drama played out. The SPX came up to test the 1426.63 closing high from May 2008. As price kept moving higher, most traders, including Keystone, thought the 1226.63 should be taken out no problemmo, but it was not. Price came up to print the 1422.38 on 4/2/12, falling short of its goal, then falling on its sword. Perhaps the sequel will occur early next week. It appears a done deal for price to test the April 2012 highs, and the ascending triangle above is cheering the bulls on, but, will price move over 1419, or not? Rest assured, if price hits 1419, bells, whistles, even sirens will go off, clowns and dancing ponies will march in a parade. This tension sets up for an interesting Monday. Key resistance levels to watch are the closing price 1418.16, the HOD 1418.71, 1419.04, 1422.38, 1424, and 1426.63. The key item to address now is a slice of key lime pie. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Good post its hard to take position in this market always seems like its never going end until it does
ReplyDeleteThat's very true MCAP, the VIX should tell the story, August is typically the lows, and up appears the only logical path here forward, so, time will tell. We will have to be on SPX 1419 watch next week. Pehaps a European official will release a news bomb this weekend.
ReplyDeleteThe mid 1420s level with possible overshoot would be exactly in line with a wave IV of 5 target of 1415-1425. Fyi: The move of 1330 in late July to 1390 is wave 1. The move from 1390 to 1355 is then wave 2.
ReplyDeleteThe move early august from there to 1407 is wave 3, with the sideways BS of the past week or so a wave 4 (wave 4s are often a mess and volume drops, which is exactly what happened) now wave 5 is underway. It probably started around 1400. Since wave 3 can never be the shortest wave, wave 5 is limited in length and less than 55 points and targeted at the 1425ish level with possible overshoot to 1430s. Keep an eye on volume, it should rapper off and be less than that during wave 1 and 3.
Top will be on 3 Sep 2012. 83 years from 3 Sep 1929. A Jupiter return.
ReplyDeleteThat is interesting, markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday on 9/3, so that would instead target Bernanke's 8/31 Friday talk as an inflection point, or on Tuesday when trading resumes 9/4/12.
DeleteReally love all input from this blog s thnaks KS and to all tht contribute
ReplyDeleteCant back space on an iPad pardon typos
ReplyDeleteLol, the "great" apple device doesn't even have the simplest of typing functions... Stock over prized?
DeleteSome people call the top mid nxt week. I don't call tops, just price levels.
Given that this market is running on hopium it might as well keep on grinding higher.
The funny thing is that regardless if you are a bull or a bear, from an EWT perspective almost all counts I am aware off have a significant market top project any time soon. Heavy selling will soon come. Either as a C wave, a 3rd wave or 4th etc etc. it's going to be sell baby sell.