Thursday, August 16, 2012

AAPL Apple Weekly Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence

The tight Bollinger Bands are highlighted, all resulting in the BB squeezing out large upside moves. The move now may have a bit more upside due to the squeeze.  Price has touched the upper BB today so this opens the door to a pullback to at least the middle BB which is the 20-week MA at 588. The chart is ugly. The thick red lines show the negative divergence clear as a bell, now that price has printed a higher high.  Note, however, that over the last two months with this ongoing mini-rallly, there is momo in the indicators that want to see another higher high near term (green lines). Therefore, price should receive a spank down now, then will want to come back up to this level or higher, then all indicators should be firmly lined up with negative divergence and the momo will be burned off, so a roll over would be expected. Note the low volume participation s price moves higher.

Interestingly, the iPhone5 launch is 9/12/12, a month away, so there will be four candles printed up into all that hooplah and excitement.  Analysts, and long holders of AAPL, are already shouting the merits of the new release and how Apple will blow out to the sky. Perhaps they are right, but the chart is not setting up that way.  Projection is for a move lower but price should then recover again, with AAPL you cannot rule out 640-680, but that should be the peak with the nasty negative divergence remaining in place, and a roll over would be expected. The 630-680 range is perhaps the price peak that AAPL will ever see in its existence. This will be interesting to watch as the iPhone5 release nears. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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