Tuesday, August 7, 2012

VIX Volatility Daily and Weekly Charts Significant Market Top Developing


The VIX is another useful fear gauge like the CPC. The daily chart shws the falling wedg in play and the VIX now printing a 15 handle.  The March market top was marked by the 14 and 15 prints.  This low VIX shows complacency and a complete lack of fear by traders--exactly when tops occur.  The 10 MA crossed above the 21 MA in early April verifying the market top and selloff in progress.  The market bottom occurred in early June at the spike VIX high of 27-ish, and the 10 MA dropping back under the 21 MA.  The 10 MA crossed back above the 21 MA a few days ago so keep an eye on that; it is a bearish signal for the broad indexes.

The daily chart can still print lower numbers to further satisfy the falling wedge but note the universal positive divergence that occurred in late June-early July which is not demanding to see lower prints ahead. Thus, this is favorable to VIX moving up from here which would be in concert with markets sellling off. The small purple circles show hw the indicators actually want to see a high print than 21 which would definitely correlate to a market sell off ahead.

On the weekly chart, the correlation is obvious.  The red circles at VIX 15 says its time to place a significant market top and sell off, while the green circles show the higher spikes in VIX that identify when the shorts should be covered and long positions quickly brought on as a rally is imminent.  Now, down at 15, what do you think will happen on this weekly basis moving forward? (Answer: In the days/weeks ahead, at anytime, a large spike will occur in the VIX that will correspond to a broad market selloff). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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