Friday, April 13, 2012

SPX Weekly Chart 3 1/2-Year Upward Channel

Once price regained the channel by moving up thru the bottom rail to start the year, we have been waiting for the back kiss.  Price is now moving lower to perform that back kiss of this lower rail of the blue channel at 1350-ish. When this occurs, price will decide to either bounce and allow the bulls to throw confetti, since price will want to then stay inside the channel for the foreseable future, or, price will then collapse thru the bottom rail, with markets tumbling lower, and the bears throwing confetti.  Keystone projects the latter as time moves along.

QE1 saved the markets in early 2009 and the intial bullish rally in 2009 established the channel boundaries. In summer 2010, markets were crumbling thru disinflation into deflation and ready to roll over the falls so Chairman Bernnke felt he had to step in with QE2 to save the day. That money pump took markets up into the early 2011 high when copper, commodities and financials rolled over taking the broad markets lower. The July 2011 waterfall crash occurred directly thereafter. This past summer, the Fed reached into the magician's hat once again and pulled out the Operation Twist program, plus keeping rates low thru 2014, plus rumors of housing stimulus plans and other money pumping talk. That helped price come back up to the bottom rail but could not get it up inside the safety of the channel, until the ECB announced LTRO 1and 2 that now has the SPX back up and inside the channel.

The back kiss of the bottom rail at 1350-ish will determine if the 3 1/2-year channel remains in place, or, if it is tossed into the dust bin of market history, ushering in an ugly path for the world moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

9 comments:

  1. You've been about as wrong as can be. Your technical analysis is cognitive dissonance at it's best. Your theories are entertaining but are after the fact, too many watch numbers and meters that change with the wind.

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  2. Hello Anon, perhaps the world wide readership, that studies and follows The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant web sites, would like to comment.

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  3. So now your LONG the markets as of yesterday, not looking so good today. JJC going to put you back short, Keybot blow a fuse? Which way do you go? It would be cool if you just held your position. Cognitive Dissonance allows you to forget and re-adjust by omission the meters and marks that failed then turned around. You move your meters and indexes when they don't hold what you predict. Basic gypsy astrologer practices. When the sun sign doesn't apply, you apply the moon divergence, and rising sun indicator as reason the sun sign is not what it's upposed to be.

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  4. Anon, I have been following KS for long time and I have to say that u can't find a better TA anywhere else and it's all for free! I think u get frustrated easily when ur trades goes wrong, but u can't blame anyone for it. Patience is the key into this market..
    Brian

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  5. Anon, KS is simply the best. I only wish I had found his site sooner before shorting this market. I would not be underwater as I am now. Never blame anyone for trades gone wrong. Always do your due diligence before investing and be patient as Brian mentions above. GLTA...and thank you KS for your guidance to allow us to navigate this wild market successfully.

    Steve

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  6. What? Who said any of my trades went wrong. Quite the contrary believe it or not. I read him for entertainment not to follow his trading or influence mine. I just have been following for a month or two and see that he consistently omits that which doesn't fit into the analysis he last presented. When you track Keybot's indexes, resistance, support they in the end come out in the wash neutral, or maybe up a slight percent. He uses cognitive dissonance very manipulatively. Watching his numbers prove and or support the obvious after the fact. Clever, but just over thought technical analysis.

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  7. Anon, the Nile is not only a river.

    Steve

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  8. Anon, before KS flushes this to the backpages, I just want to say I had a killer of a week, only due to the Keystones blog. Great early in the week, minor damages later in the week. I can live with that. It's not my place to say so, but I doubt anyone would mind of you obtained your information at the places where you find your own great direction. Why you come here and post inane comments is baffling. Quite possibly you are just being lunar. - Ande

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  9. Hello all, thank you for the comments to Keystone's growing army around the world, especially Brian, Steve and Ande. No worries with Anon, he has been identified as a troll. Free speech is a great thing so even jack*sses are allowed and will continue to be permitted to write anything they want on the site. He is harmless. Most trolls simply desire attention, or, very likely, is part of the bigger picture that takes umbrage in a free/donation type site that provides regular Ma and Pa investor the same advantages as the professional traders enjoy every day. Besides, the trolls provide comic relief and make the day interesting.

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