Thursday, April 19, 2012

Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator Signals DISINFLATION

The CRB falling under 300 is a big deal and will lead to many sleepless nights for Chairman Bernanke. The copper weakness as well.  When Dr. Copper is sick so are the markets. This, along with the lower 10-year Treasury yields signal disinflation.

CRB/10-Yr Price = 298.52/100.375 = 2.97

Over 4 = Inflation (last seen during the commodities bubble top summer 2008)
Between 3 and 4 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists fight it out (with the food inflation over the last couple years as well as Mother Nature turmoil, and also Chairman Bernanke's easy money, the indicator had been as high as 3.5 and 3.6 in recent months but turned back down)
Between 2.9 and 3.0 = Disinflation (this occurs as commodity markets drift lower due to lack of demand, a global economic slowdown occurs)
Under 2.90 = Deflation (this is the big worry of Chairman Bernanke, a scholar on the Great Depression, he wants to avoid this area at all costs, QE 3 will occur as the indicator drops under 2.90 which is consistent with the CRB dropping under 270)

Keystone's indicator shows the economy now in Disinflation. Quantitative easing is the only remedy since the globe cannot grow out of the funk, but this simply kicks the can down the road again as we have witnessed for over three years now. At some point the chicken's come home to roost. Watch the CRB like a hawk, under 300 is very bearish for equities markets

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