On 3/30/12, Friday, EOM, EOQ1. Hungary 10-year bond yields cross up over 9%. Violence in Spain continues. Eurozone finance ministers agree to temporarily boost the lending capacity of the bailout funds to 700 billion euro’s ($934 billion U.S. dollars). Markets remain concerned that the measures will fall short in stopping contagion fears from spreading to Spain and Italy. During the Eurozone meeting, Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter announced the new firewall measures to the press. Protocol should allow Juncker, the chairman, to announce the firewall news to the press. Juncker was upset and saw no reason for a press announcement saying, “the Austrian finance minister already announced it while the meeting was going on, so there’s no point in the press conference.” Markets are flat to up all day long as end of quarter window dressing helps paint the tape. AAPL finishes the day down ten dollars and under 600. For the first quarter, the SPX is up about 12% logging the best first-quarter results since 1998, over a decade ago. The Nasdaq is up 19% for the first quarter, AAPL’s stellar earnings in mid-January serving as rocket fuel. Tech and financials outperformed as utilities, last year’s darling, stumbled all quarter.
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On 4/1/12, Sunday, the China PMI shows continued expansion now over 53 (50 is the line between expansion and contraction) but the HSBC PMI which is thought to be more reliable, is down towards 48, indicating contraction. Markets choose to believe the rosie scenario and are buoyant.
On 4/2/12, Monday, first day of Q2, the Eurozone PMI’s are released and the news is ugly across the board with lower numbers indicating a contracting Europe; Germany says manufacturing orders are falling. The futures markets lose the overnight gains and move along the flat line. The Madrid market is down over 1.3% today indicating trouble flaring up in Spain. Japan’s Tankan Survey shows unenthusiastic manufacturing sentiment. Earnings estimates for Q1 and guidance by companies is being lowered indicating that caution is needed moving forward. A Wall Street analyst places a price target of $1001 on AAPL, the first pundit to announce the 1000 target level. Is this an omen for Apple and the markets? Markets run higher to start the new week and new quarter, the SPX jumping 11 points, 0.8%.
On 4/3/12, Tuesday, the markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC Minutes at 2 PM EST. The broad indexes immediately sell off on the FOMC Minutes release since the Fed downplayed further use of quantitative easing. The dollar shot up like a rocket gaining nearly one percent in minutes. Gold, oil, commodities, and equities tumbled lower, but, by the end of the session, the markets had recovered the losses. The FOMC Minutes may act as a market turning point and catalyst moving forward.
On 4/4/12, Wednesday, GE and IBM are downgraded. MCD is taken off the GS conviction buy list. John Chambers of CSCO says economic conditions remain weak. The catalyst today is the Spain bond auction that disappoints. Spain yields blow out to the upside and the futures markets tumble lower. Copper starts to cascade lower taking the broad markets lower. The ECB does not change rates at their monthly meeting. As trading begins, the semiconductor sector collapses taking the broad indexes south. The markets sell off all day long but recover during the final couple hours of trading. The SPX drops 14 points, one percent, to 1399, and the Dow Industrials are off 125 points, also one percent, to 13075. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbles 45 points, or 1.5%, to 3068. Gold lost over 50 today. Copper and gold were down about 4% and silver was off almost 7%.
On 4/5/12, Thursday, the last trading day until next week, futures markets are up in the overnight session but begin falling at about 4 AM EST. Concern is growing over Europe as Spain bond yields blow out with the 10-year yield now over 5.75%. Italy jumps towards 5.5%. Portugal blows out over 12% and Hungary is at 9%. The Spain-Germany spread is about 400 basis points matching November 2011 highs. The markets languish sideways all day long and close the week with the worst trading week thus far in 2012.
On 4/6/12, Friday, U.S. markets are closed in Observance of Good Friday. The Jobs Report is a dramatic miss. Consensus estimates were for a gain of over 200K jobs but the report shows a paltry 120K job gain, that does not even keep up with those entering the job market. Futures markets plummeted lower targeting a big drop for markets come Monday morning when trading resumes.
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On 4/9/12, Monday, China CPI. Traders respond to the weaker than expected Jobs Report. Chairman Bernanke speaks in the evening at a conference but traders are listening for any comments on the weak Jobs Report.
On 4/10/12, Tuesday, Wholesale Trade. AA kicks off earnings season after the bell.
On 4/11/12, Wednesday, Import and Export Prices. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Beige Book.
On 4/12/12, Thursday, Jobless Claims. International Trade. PPI. Natty Inventories. GOOG earnings.
On 4/13/12, Friday the 13th, China GDP. CPI. Consumer Sentiment. JPM and WFC earnings. Chairman Bernanke speaks in the evening at a conference.
On 4/16/12, Monday, Retail Sales.
On 4/17/12, Tuesday, Housing Starts. Industrial Production.
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