Thursday, April 19, 2012

European Bond Auctions and Yield Summary 4/19/12

U.S. futures are up strongly this morning with the Spain auctions only minutes away, and the France auctions will follow along one-half hour later. The S&P's are up 8.50 points, Dow Industrials are up 73 and Nasdaq up 20. The Spain 10-year yield is drifting ever so slightly lower ahead of the auction now printing 5.80%. The dollar is lower which will boost commodties and equities.  China dangles the quantitative easing carrot overnight saying that triple R cuts are on the table. Brazil lowers rates.

The Spain auctions go off without any problem. Demand for Spain debt rose slightly. The euro hits fresh session highs against the dollar. Dollar down=euro up=commodities and equities up. U.S. futures maintain their elevated levels. France auctions are next.

Note Added 4/19/12 at 4:56 AM EST:  U.S. futures stumble slightly; S&P's up 5, Dow now up 48, Nasdaq up 13. France results imminent.

Note Added 4/19/12 at 5:10 AM EST:  France auctions occur without incident. U.S. futures anticipated positive results from the auctions this morning, with the Brazil easing and potential China easing also helping the bulls.  Futures now moving sideways with the S&P's up 5, Dow up 50 and Nasdaq up 13. The equity bulls are the winners so far this morning. Spain 10-year yield is up to 5.85% but well under the 6% worry level. The auctions were managed well by the ECB operating in the background. U.S. futures pare their pre-auction gains but remain poised for a higher open. BAC and MS bank earnings occur in two hours, about 7 AM EST, followed by Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM.

Note Added 4/19/12 at 5:50 AM EST: The equity bulls are winning today with futures remaining elevated, the dollar is weaker, and euro stronger.  Here is an update of the European Bond Yields.

10-Year Yields:
Greece 21.02%
Portugal 12.44%
Hungary 8.88%
Spain 5.82%
Italy 5.50%
Belgium 3.39%
France 3.02%
Netherlands 2.28%
U.K. 2.18%
Finland 2.14%
U.S. 1.99%
Germany 1.73%

Yields are moving flat across the board despite all the drama over the last couple days.  France requires watching as it moves over 3%Spain remains under 6% and Italy sits at the 5.5% level.  Note that Finland's yield is now lower than the U.K.'s yield. The Spain-Germany Spread is 409 basis points, Italy-Germany Spread is 377 bips and France-Germany Spread is 129 bips. Use these numbers as a gauge of European woes since higher spreads moving forward indicate trouble.

Note Added 4/19/12 at 8:06 AM:  Spain 10-year yield jumped to 5.91% as European markets sold off and U.S. futures fell lower on news of a potential France downgrade by Moody's. Markets are recovering as traders realize this downgrade is not imminent but rather something that may occur down the road. Note how jumpy the markets are as they responded instantaneously to any news or rumors.

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