SPX S/R Week of 12-5-11

Price moved up on Friday to pierce the strong resistance cluster at 1258-1261 and failed.  The SPX closed below the starting year number of 1257.64. Thus, the SPX remains negative on the year, albeit by a hair.  The major S/R levels are 1287, 1258, 1235, 1220, 1204 and 1192.

For Monday trading, if the SPX touches the 1260 handle, then the bulls will be running stronger to the upside and that 1258-1261 resistance cluster will likely give way, paving the way to 1268. At the lower end, the market bears have the wind at their back since the indexes closed near the lows. If the SPX loses the 1243 handle, the selling will accelerate and a move to test 1240 will occur quickly, with a further move down to the strong 1235 support likely. A move thru 1244-1258 is sideways action.

Critical moving averages (MA's) currently are 1279.65 (12 month MA--one of Keystone's Secular Signals), 1274.24 (10 month MA), 1269.23 (50 week MA), 1264.95 (200 day MA), 1247.17 (150 day MA), 1226.31 (20 day MA), 1210.26 (50 day MA), and 1208.35 (20 week MA). Note how price closed under the critical 150 day MA which is a feather in the bear's caps.

·        1296

·        1295

·        1293

·        1292

·        1289

·        1287

·        1286

·        1285

·        1282

·        1280

·        1278

·        1277

·        1275

·        1272 (LT S/R)

·        1270

·        1268

·        1267

·        1263

·        1262

·        1261

·        Friday HOD 1260.08

·        1260

·        1258 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)

·        1257 (3/16/11)

·        1254

·        1253

·        1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)

·        1249 (LOD 3/16/11; failure at this level 8/4/11)

·        1247

·        Friday Close 1244.28

·        1244

·        Friday LOD 1243.35

·        1242

·        1240

·        1238

·        1235 (12/15/10; HOD 12/7/10 large volume)

·        1233 (LOD 12/16/10)

·        1229

·        1227 (HOD 11/9/10)

·        1225

·        1224 (12/7/10 large volume)

·        1220 (HOD 4/26/10)

·        1219

·        1216

·        1215

·        1210

·        1209 (HOD 4/29/10)

·        1207 (4/29/10 Top)

·        1206

·        1204

·        1201

·        1199

·        1198

·        1196

·        1195

·        1192-1193 (9/15/08 post-LEH bk)

·        1191

·        1189

·        1188

·        1183

·        1181

·        1179