Keystone's Morning Wake Up 12/30/11

The sun rises on the last day of trading for 2011.  The broad indexes are in a sideways move currently.  The SOX remains under 368.60 so this prevents any significant bullish upside for the indexes.  XLF remains over 12.80 so this creates continual bulilsh market buoyancy. One of these two characters, semiconductors or financials, is going to flinch, and that will show you the broad market direction.  Until then, we travel along sideways.

SPX 1257.64 is the starting number from one year ago and today we find out if the year is positive or negative.  The Dow Industrials are positive on the year receiving oomph from the divvy chasers.  This feeds the ongoing dividend stock bubble. Window dressing continues to pump stocks such as MCD to new highs pumping the divvy bubble higher.

Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator is at 304.55/100.891 = 3.02 which is only a hair from indicating that the U.S. is in Disinflation, but its close enough to call it Disinflation now.

The futures are green. The S&P and Nasdaq futures are tracking together at about +0.15% so this promotes sideways movement for the indexes. If the SPX, starting at 1263, gains a half-buck to get over 1263.50, the bulls will control today and the SPX will finish on the bullish side, positive on the year.  Key SPX S/R is 1285, 1281.21 (12-month MA Keystone's Secular Signal), 1277, 1276.11 (10-month MA), 1268, 1267.71 (50-week MA), 1267, 1261, 1258.90 (200-day MA), 1258, 1257.64 (starting year number for 2011), 1257, 1252, 1247, 1242.61 (20-day MA), 1240.

Note Added 12/30/11 at 11:00 AM:  XLF remains above 13 far from the 12.80 danger. SOX punched thru 367 for a couple minutes but pulled back down, still a buck and a half from the 368.60 which would signal an all-clear for market bulls.  So, markets stumble along sideways as the trading year draws to a close. SPX four range today from 1260.22 to 1264.12.  The 1263.50 will trigger a bullish thrust today, this level was pierced a few minutes after 10 AM but it did not hold.  If SPX takes out the 1263.50 it will result in a big run-up into the close.

Note Added 12/30/11 at 6:07 PM:  XLF is at 13 and SOX 364.44 so markets stumbled sideways all day long. The final five minutes of trading provided high drama as the SPX collapsed from 1259.75 to 1257.60 to finish negative on the year.  The 2011 starting year number was 1257.64. The 2011 close for the year is 1257.60.  The SPX lost 4 pennies this year, -0.003%. The circus tent folds on 2011.  But if you listen real close, you can hear a caliope, and here comes the 2012 circus wagon now.  Happy New Year everyone and see you at the 2012 sideshow come Tuesday.