Monday, August 15, 2011

Keystone's Morning Wake Up 8-15-11

Empire Manufacturing data took the pipe minutes ago as all the manufacturing data has this summer. LOW beat on earnings but top line and guidance is not creating enthusiasm. Today will be most afected by news out of Europe.

For today's session, let's keep it simple; watch UTIL, SPX:VIX and SPX support and resistance and ignore the rest of the noise.

The utilities, UTIL, now at 411.21, need to move above 413.67 today to indicate that the broad market bulls have strength to the upside.  If the 413.67 level is not achieved, market bears remain in firm control of these markets.

The SPX:VIX ratio, now with a 32 handle, must move above 35 to favor the broad market bulls, and if the move above 35 is achieved, this will coincide with a large up day for the indexes; the Dow Industrials would move up triple digits. If the ratio remains under 35, the bulls got nothing and the bears remain in full control of the markets.

For the SPX today, starting at 1179, the market bulls need to touch the 1189 handle, if so, the move up for the broad markets will accelerate.  If the market bears can push under a 1171 handle, downside momo will strengthen and if 1170.74 is lost, the selling will be in force with the indexes dropping multiple handles in short order.  A move today thru SPX 1172-1188 is a bull-bear standoff, sideways slop, no resolution day.

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