Thursday, August 11, 2011

Keystone's Inflation Deflation Indicator -- NEUTRAL

The last couple days, the indicator shows that we slipped into disinflation with a low reading yesterday at 2.92.  Alas, in these fast moving markets, as yields rise today and prices fall for the 10-year note, the indicator moves back into the neutral battle zone where inflation and deflation battle for control. Clearly, the indicator remains closer to disinflation than to inflation. The markets are moving fast so who knows what tomorrow brings?

Keystone's Inflation Deflation Gauge = CRB/10-year price = 326.30/98.203 = 3.3

Over 4 = Inflation
Between 3 and 4 = Neutral; inflation and deflation battle
Betwen 2.9 and 3.0 = Disinflation
Under 2.9 = Deflation

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