October and Q4 begins with a new euphoric all-time record high at 6731.94 and new all-time closing high at 6715.35 both on 10/2/25 (today). The Godot stock market top continues (it is supposed to be here but it is missing). Every time the neggie d spanks price lower over the last few weeks, there is always a stick-save ready to save the day including the ongoing hype on Fed rate cuts, the euphoric AI party, robust consumer spending by the wealthy that raped the country for all its worth over the last five decades, analyst calls for SPX 7K, tame inflation data, etc...
The stock market complacency is verified by the low put/call ratios that have been in place for many weeks; it is atypical behavior further reinforcing the idea that the current historic top is likely on par with the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble top and other major tops. Even the vicar is getting in on the action buying a 3x long ETF with the collection basket money and other church funds. During the homily, he said the church will be able to afford the new addition this year because the stock market is unstoppable. Praise the Lord. You know, all you have to do, is send ten dollars to the church of the sacred bleeding heart of Jesus, located somewhere in Los Angeles, California. Far Away Eyes.
When September started, the business media were talking doom and gloom because of stock market seasonality. The worst was expected and it turned out to be a bigtime bullish month. For October, the month when major crashes tend to occur, the media is not talking doom and gloom. Quite the contrary. The Wall Street consensus remains for SPX 7K and nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead. Some opine about a pullback but they say it will be short-lived and a great buying opportunity (bullish sentiment off the charts).
Despite the likely historic stock market top printing right now in real-time, with a serious drawdown expected going forward, the following analysts say all is groovy with lots more record highs ahead including SPX 7K; Evercore's Emanuel, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Blackrock's Rieder, Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus, Fundstrat's Lee, Yardeni, CNBC's Cramer, Citi's Chronett, Principal Asset's Shah, Federated Hermes Chiavarone, Oaktree's Marks, Renaissance Macro's deGraaf, JPM is telling everyone to buy the dips going forward, TPW's Pelosky, HSBC's Kettner, Goldman Sach's Kostin, Truist Wealth's Lerner, Deutsche Bank's permabull Binky Chadha, Barclay's strategists say buy, Wells Fargo strategists are bullish, permabull Wharton Professor Siegel proclaims that stocks will continue far higher, and BMO calls for SPX 7K by the end of the year.
Do you get the feeling that everybody and his bro is super bullish and long the stock market expecting to get out easy if something was to happen? If you are a smart person, you always look to see where the exits are whenever you enter a room.
Maybe these Wall Street bigwigs are correct? The bulls are walking around with SPX 6.7K hats and the screenprinter is excited already imprinting the SPX 6.8K hats for delivery in a couple days. He is also receiving orders for SPX 6.9K and SPX 7.0K hats. Harry the hatman says he hopes that King Donnie's tariffs do not hold-up his shipment of cheap red hats from China that he hopes to imprint.
It is time for another spankdown for the stock market and then we will find out if a stick-save occurs again. The very short term 2-hour and short-term daily charts are shown above. Both are cooked with neggie d. The hype above can perform the stick-save and buoy the price to another high, but the same underlying sickness remains and the the neggie d will form again, like now.
The SPX is ready to fall in both the hourly and daily time frames so perhaps from tomorrow through all of next week. The charts were poised for the US Monthly Jobs Report number tomorrow morning but the corrupt demopublicans and republocrats shut the government down to screw common people. King Donnie brags that he will sh*t-can thousands of employees permanently. Good luck to those families. Ironically, many of those people receiving pink slips voted for Trumpski and even gave him 20 bucks to place a campaign sign in their front yards. Sucka's.
Let's drill down on the charts a little bit. On the 2-hour, the red lines show the neggie d in place that created the smackdown four candlesticks (8 trading hours) ago. Price is buoyant again as would be expected with a new quarter starting when new money gets put to work. This activity typically creates lift in the stock market. A couple days are in the bag already for October, so the new money buoyancy will fade away.
Check for continued negative divergence if price rallies tomorrow after the opening bell. The 2-hour prints a candlestick at 9:30 AM EST, 10 AM and 12 noon so by munchtime stocks will already be falling lower or the 3 new candlesticks will tell you the story (the high may be delayed until after lunchtime). The top deviation band is violated so the middle band at 6673, and rising, and the lower band at 6613, and rising, are on the table, to start the downside fun.
The 2-hour and daily charts compliment each other with their ugliness. The daily chart is the same dealio as the 2-hour. The universal negative divergence wants to see a spankdown begin and run for a few days. Can it be stick-saved this time? It will likely drop for 3 or 4 days before we find that answer so that puts us probably at mid-week next week to see if intervention occurs to keep the stock market buoyant.
The monthly charts have new candlesticks so it would be a good time to see how those tops are progressing (not well, the SPX weekly and monthly charts remain neggie d). How cool would it be if this is THE top (for many years)? Maybe a Black Friday tomorrow will kick it off? That would be super cool.
The bears have a turn at bat starting tomorrow so we shall see if they can finally start the downside and lock the historic Godot top into place.
Keybot the Quant remains longs through this major topping saga the last few weeks at 6200-6700 now call it 6200-6800. The robot is fixated on volatility, banks and commodities as the three main drivers of the stock market currently. Watch XLF 53.12 and VIX 16.87. If the banks fail and volatility spikes, stocks will drop like rocks, and the downside kicked-in by the neggie d above and rampant complacency will have legs to the downside. If VIX remains below 16.87 and XLF above 53.12, the bulls are fine.
All of you are ready for the fun, right? While we wait, and then watch the rollover tomorrow and next week, we can groove to some Green Onions at harvest season here in Pennsylvania. Booker T and Daryl do a great job. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday, 10/5/25: More AI hype creates an upside Friday morning. Wheee! Whoopie! However, stocks roll over at munch time giving up the gains. VIX spiked above the critical 16.87 line in the sand only to reverse just as fast. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6750.87 and new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Friday did a good job of keeping long hands in the stock market and encouraging dip-buying, as the bigwigs tiptoe past the guard dogs and sneak out the back door, to let Joe Retail, Anita Sucka, and Carlos Bagholder hold the bag. Maybe a Black Monday? The news from the Middle East is happy with the terrorist group Hamas supposedly releasing all Israeli hostages, dead or alive, in the coming days, so that may create an up lift to stocks to start the week, but the pile of sh*t stock market can only be propped-up for so long.
Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.