SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Fibonacci Retracements; US Stock Market Collapses -3% after King Donnie Decrees Tariffs on China

The neggie d spankdown finally occurs. The prior smackdowns over the last few weeks were stick-saved by King Donnie or Pope Powell happy talk. When the slapdowns started, someone would run onto the trading floor and yell, "Rate cuts!" so everyone would buy like mad. Last Friday, the opposite happens, where Trumpski's words were the catalyst to kick in the negative divergence that has been explained across multiple time frames over the last few weeks.

The all-time record high for the S&P 500, the United States stock market, the SPX, is 6764.58 on 10/9/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6753.72 on 10/8/25.

Let's take a look at the SPX daily chart that is the bowl of spaghetti above. You can get dizzy if you stare at it too long. Dizzy by Tommy. Stocks top off in the daily time frame due to the red rising wedge a bearish pattern, overbot RSI and stochastics, and of course the neggie d the main reason (red lines). The divergences are the most important aspect of technical trading for any of you budding analysts.

Interestingly, the Wall Street analysts say the sky is the limit with stocks with targets of SPX 7K and higher. They say over the last month to not worry about a stock market top because before that happens, there will be a period of time for a blow-off top like the dot-com bubble. Therefore, there is nothing to worry about as the SPX drops -3% in 5 hours. Hey jackasses, you just saw the blow-off top; it was the last 2 months.

So down she goes and even though the orange head tried to stick-save the damage he kicked into gear on Friday, it was already gonzo. Price fell all the way to the lower standard deviation band so that places the middle band back on the table that is also the 20-day MA at 6667. Price will likely want to show the 20-day MA respect and come up for a back kiss in the days forward.

However, you can see that the chart indicators remain weak and bleak and wanting more lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis. The RSI is in bear territory below 50%. You can watch the stochastics to see if they go sub 50% that will signal more trouble, or if the stoch's hesitate at going below 50% that will open the door for the back kiss up to the 20.

Price is extended above the moving averages so a pullback was needed. Note how price is near the 50-day MA support at 6530. With a low last week at 6551, the SPX was in the neighborhood so what do you do when you are in the neighborhood of a friend, relative or family member? You knock on the door and say hello and hope you are not interrupting. If the house is a rockin', don't bother knockin', come on in. Stevie Ray. There is some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down. Come on, baby, shake somethin' loose. That guitar was SRV's third arm. Remarkable. The SPX will likely want to test the 50 since it is in the neighborhood and the weak and bleak chart indicators indicate that is the path forward.

What happens quite a bit in the pullbacks is price bouncing off the 100-day MA at 6327 and rising. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why we are never invited to parties, if the 50 support gives way, price is destined for the 100 where it will likely bounce for a relief rally. Pope Powell or King Donnie may provide happy talk to try and bounce stocks out of the gate tomorrow or tonight. Donnie is aware of the futures market so look for him to spew some type of happy talk between 4 PM EST and 6 PM EST today to help create a recovery from his selloff.

Watch the 150-day MA going forward since it is a key bull/bear cyclical market indicator. It went flat in late March and then turned down in April signaling a cyclical bear market, however, the stick-saves occur and by late May, the 150 was sloping higher again signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. She is flattening again so watch it closely and it will help you announce the start of the cyclical bear.

The Fibonacci retracements for the huge rally from April to present are shown above. Keystone mentioned Fibonacci and Mandelbrot at the last party and his red Solo cup was taken away and he was asked to leave. If price falls to the 100-day MA support at 6327 and collapses through, price has a date with the 38% Fib retracement at 6073-ish. This target is at that juicy gap big enough to drive a truck through (orange circle). There are lots of gaps that need filled down below while the bears buttoned-up the top nicely not leaving a gap behind to be concerned about.

The comical thing about the chart above is the never-ending rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness that refuses to die. A -3% mini-crash that wipes out the last month's of gains, and $2 trillion off the stock market cap, in only 5 hours, is viewed as no big deal. Nothing to see here, move along. Naked Gun. Piece of cake. A minor flesh wound. Monty Python. No problemmo say the bulls.

The Aroon green line shows that all the bulls remain bullish the stock market and comically the red line shows that all the bears remain 100% bullish the stock market. The bears are slightly more bullish than the bulls. That is hilarious. Traders are champing at the bit to buy the dips in the week ahead. Traders and investors believe the stock market is at a permanently high plateau and will only go up and never go down again a la Irving Fisher in 1929, and a la the Wall Street analysts now in 2025.

If you are long the stock market, get on your knees and start praying since there is likely many weeks, months and perhaps a few years ahead of lower stock market prices. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:44 PM EST: King Donnie rides to the rescue with happy talk saying the China tariff drama will work out; "it will all be fine." Trumpski slaps dirtbag Dictator Xi with the back of his small orange hand saying that the communist tyrant "had a bad moment" and then threatens China with a depression capitalizing the 'D' in his baby tweet. The happy talk is music to trader's ears and they trip over each other to buy, buy, buy. S&P futures explode a percent higher up +65 points. Everyone is singing Happy Days Are Here Again buying the dip. La, la, la. Wheee. Whooopie! Say, the SPX pops +65 points tomorrow. That would place price at 6618-ish. The 6600-6620 price support for the last month failed on the way down, so it becomes resistance, and price may rebound on the Donnie happy talk to test this resistance and make a bounce or die decision. As per Keybot the Quant, that is now short, watch banks, commodities, volatility and copper.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/13/25: In the Evening, as Zep would sing, the SPX recovers to 6655 with the 20-day MA resistance at 6669 only 14 bucks away. The 50-day MA support is at 6538 and it was not tested although price was real close. The area between the 20 and 50 at 6538-6669 is noise but if price breaks out higher above 6669, the bulls win big going forward. The bears win big if price retreats and falls through 6538. The King Donnie happy talk making nice with China in his latest baby tweets creates the rally that does not recover all the losses from Friday. The stochastics on the daily chart are sub 50% in bear territory wanting price to come back down. The SPX weekly chart has topped-out with neggie d as previously explained so that means a multi-week down move has started. Even if price is buoyant for a day or three, it should roll over to resume the downtrend expected in the weekly timeframe. The SPX is a turd that is circling the bowl and getting flushed. The SPX monthly chart is topped-out except for the MACD line squeezing out a tiny higher high, however, the monthly action continues for another 3 weeks. If stocks are flushed, as per the daily and weekly charts, the MACD line will move lower for the month. Watch it closely because that is how you can call the bigtime top in the stock market. It should be now but if the MACD line can squeeze out a bit more life, THE top would simply be November or December. Look for the negative divergence The stock market is pile of bile, folks. Retail stocks, banks, volatility, commodities and copper are all that matter right now.