Gold has been the big winner this year up +65%. The gold bugs finally have their day. Humorously, gold was always bought as a hedge against the Fed and other central bankers that cannot stop printing fiat money, but at the same time the central bankers are creating the big money gains for the gold bugs due to their buying and demand.
Global central banks are losing confidence in the flood of paper money in circulation around the world and have been focused on building gold reserves to support their currencies and countries. Central banks begin purchasing gold in force in 2022 and 2023. You would think by 2025, that most of those purchases were finished and the gold was safely stored in each central bank's mini Fort Knox's, but tell that to the gold price that goes parabolic.
With the US stock market at an epic and historic major top currently, gold and bitcoin have become the favorite flavors of the day. Further, as evidenced in recent price action, bitcoin lags. People want tangible real things that can be held in the hand or owned like gold, silver, real estate, etc... Obviously, gold is the big winner.
The Diwali Festival started a couple days ago and a lot of gold is bought in this time period that may be providing that final boost higher in recent days.
Besides the central bank buying launch pad in 2022/2023, there is the Jackson Hole meeting in August a couple months ago. Pope Powell hiked to the top of the Wyoming mountain, avoiding bear and elk, and returned from On High with the tablets that told traders how to trade. Powell declared rate cuts for as far as the eye can see so the dollar immediately collapsed and gold shot up like a rocket in this parabolic phase that commodities are known for. It can be called the Jackson Holeshot for gold.
The blue ascending triangle pattern is bullish and it came through in spades. Looking at a couple different break-out lines one at 3350 and one at 3450. The base of the vertical side is 3K so a 350 difference added to 3350 is 3700 and gold blew through that target. A 450 difference for the 3450 base line provides an upside target at 3900 also achieved so the ascending triangle pattern was validated and played-out. There would be not much more upside expected but gold keeps rocketing higher as the stock market and global affairs become shakier by the day.
The red circle shows a textbook Tweezer Top (the long candlestick shadows resemble tweezers and typically identify a top). GOLD PRINTS AN ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH AT 4381.58. Congrats to the gold bugs.
The top comes with negative divergence (red lines) except for the MACD line. This tells you that there remains fuel in the tank on the weekly basis with the MACD to bring price back up for another look at the high. Will this occur? It is hard to say because the markets have been running more on news and emotion the last couple months than technicals.
The upper band is violated so a move back down to the middle band at 3566, and rising, is on the table. That tight band squeeze (green arrows) launched price higher. When bands tighten like that, it means a huge move is on tap but the direction is not forecasted. This time it was a launch move.
Gold received the spankdown because of the neggie d on the daily chart. Price is testing the 20-day MA at 4057 and will make a bounce or die decision. The daily chart may want a few more days of sogginess but the weekly chart still has the long and strong MACD so keep that in mind.
The gold monthly chart remains constructive for more new highs on the monthly basis but for now, going forward from here, the top is either in now, or will be in a couple weeks if the MACD on the weekly basis is satisfied, and a multi-week down move would be expected ahead. That means the US dollar, the dixie, DXY or USD, will strengthen ahead and continue recovering.
That triangle baseline range of 3350-3450 is key and the expectation would be that gold would come back to show it respect. Interestingly, the 50-week MA is at 3191 moving higher and over the next month or so you can see it moving up into the 3350-3450 range giving this area further street cred. If a gold bull, consider taking profits. You could scale-out and that way would not miss more price appreciation if the fuel in the MACD tank pushes gold back up for a matching all-time high at 4382.
Keystone is not playing gold long or short currently and has not for the last couple years. The commodities have become dicey after oil turned negative and other wild stuff occurred during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. With all the precious metal talk, it is time to groove to the Black Keys and Gold on the Ceiling. The Ohio boys done good. A great concert. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Tuesday, 10/28/25: Gold collapses to 3886 from the peak in only 6 days. When something, many times a commodity, goes parabolic up, it typically retreats the same way. Gold was almost at 4400 last Tuesday, 4.4K, a week ago, and now sports a 3.8K handle.
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