USD US Dollar Daily and Weekly Charts; W-Pattern Bottom; Inverted H&S; Long-Term Sideways Channel; Pope Powell Controls Direction on 10/29/25

Everyone has written the last song for the greenback and expects nothing but downside ahead. Instead, the dollar has rebounded, as the previous chart with possie d forecasted, albeit the dixie remains in a sideways funk. Markets are news and emotion driven currently as the US stock market likely prints a historic major top. Technically, the dollar was set to recover more over the last 3 months but alas, a sideways funk is in motion due to the daily King Donnie bloviations and drama, along with Pope Powell's comments on rate cuts that send the buck wildly one way or the other.

At Jackson Hole in August, Chairman Powell waved the rate cut flag and it was off to the races. The dollar dropped and gold popped and the stock market ran higher to new all-time highs. America's wealthy class dances with glee watching their stock holding catapult higher with no effort on their part. Too bad one-half of the country does not own a single share of stock. The have's celebrate America's crony capitalism filth system throwing confetti and watching their stock holdings increase by the minute, while the have-not's slave away working daily, many with multiple jobs, and unable to pay all their monthly bills.

The have-not's must also pay higher electricity bills so the AI millionaires and billionaires can become more wealthy. The privileged elite, that control the crony capitalism filth, ask why is everyone so glum when things are great.

Anyhoo, the dollar bottoms in the summer when traders and investors were guaranteeing that the dollar is complete toast and an all-out collapse is occurring. That is when it bounced also receiving the possie d launch (green lines). Price is stalling at 99 as the ROC rolls over with neggie d. The other chart indicators, however, on the weekly basis, are long and strong so price will want to make higher highs on a weekly basis even if this week is soggy. Watch the RSI to see if it moves above 50% into bull territory that will lock in more upside.

The blue inverted H&S (head and shoulders) pattern is in play let us call the head at 96.90 and the neckline at 99.10. That is a 2.20 difference. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the dollar will seek 101.30 as the upside target if price moves above 99.10 (light blue neckline). The 101.30-ish level is price resistance and will also form a confluence with the 50-week MA at 101.98 and dropping.

The dark blue lines show the ongoing multi-year sideways channel at 100-108. The buck broke out higher at the end of last year and early this year but price collapsed lower back into the safety of the channel. The greenback then collapsed out the bottom of the channel as the talk of rate cuts became more prominent and expected.

The USD daily chart is shown above because of the W-pattern bottom one of the most powerful patterns in stock trading. Of course, the dollar is susceptible to Fed and Donnie talk so it is a special animal. W-pattern bottoms on the daily charts will typically forecast lots of upside ahead for that stock or index. Let's say the bottom of the W is 96.5 and top is 99.5 to make the math easy that is a 3 difference so the upside target will be 102.5 if price pops above 99.5.

Keystone knew a trader for many years that traded his client's portfolios mainly with W-pattern bottoms and he did quite well. If the W forms below the 50-day MA or 200-day MA it will be a stronger move higher, and if it is under both it will be a very robust move higher. The W above cuts through the 50 but is under the 200 so it should have oomph to it and the expectation from all the mumbo-jumbo above is that the dollar will probably be above 100 perhaps at 101-102 in a month's time (remember, Pope Powell speaks on Wednesday and he controls the show).

Keystone is not playing currencies long or short currently. The dollar could be played long but it is likely best to wait for Pope Powell on Wednesday when he brings the tablets down from On High to announce the rate cut. Traders will be listening for confirmation for the next 12/10/25 rate cut, or if Powell backs off the promise of more rate cuts ahead.

The previous GTX chart shows how goods inflation is on the rise again, driven last week by a big pop in oil prices, but any jump in inflation is going to worry the Fed that they are cutting into an economy experiencing increased inflation, especially as tariffs are now kicking-in for the US consumer, and that will create rampant out of control Trumpflation like the Bidenflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. That was a long sentence.

The fate of the dollar, gold and US stock market is in the hands of Pope Powell on hump day. Money. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/30/25: Dixie moves higher to 99.53 making a bounce or die decision at the top of the W pattern. Does the dollar bounce and start moving higher from here (yes, probably), or, will it be spanked back down and die? The dollar may not be as weak because Pope Powell decreed that a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a done deal.

Note Added Saturday, 11/1/25: USD pops to 99.73 with a HOD up to 99.84 a hair from one hundo that will get everyone's attention.