CPC CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

Now just a doggone minute. That stick of dynamite is ridiculously long. JJ would always say, "Dy-no-mite." The rampant complacency and euphoric optimism continues for the last three months as evidenced by the low put/call ratios signaling a significant top. Everybody and his bro is long the market and bullish. There are no bears. That stick of TNT is going to explode the stock market to the downside.

The CPC is uncharacteristic behavior so it is super interesting. The stock market should have already topped-out and continuing a downtrend but instead the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36. Does the behavior mean the drop will be a doozy when she does roll over?

Joe Retail, Carlos Sixpack, Antoine Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka are very active in the stock market, caught up in the AI hype and other happy talk, buying stocks like crazy. Sure, these four always end up holding the bag at the top but a lot of you young folks are savvy these days. Since the big money from young people with good jobs, especially in the tech sector, may be instrumental in extending this stock market top with atypical behavior, will the young folks jumping ship create a downdraft in stocks not seen for many years? A crash?

A lot of young people buying in this rally are all looking like Einsteins. They have nice profits especially since many likely bot several tech stocks for their holdings. A lot of these young people may not want to stick around either. Nowadays, the young folks may want to trade more ignoring the old buy and hold philosophy heralded by Warren Buffet. Grandpa Warren says buy a stock and if you wait 50 years, it will be worth a lot of money. US demographics go against a future buy and hold philosophy.

Since we are in the Godot Recession, where there is a housing, labor and manufacturing recession for over 2 years, but not an overall recession yet, it is missing, like Godot, we may as well have a Godot stock market top.

This is exciting stuff. It is comical to see the laissez-faire attitude by investors, traders, commentators, media talking heads, strategists, analysts, the Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman. Bears are extinct and now only talked about around a campfire when an elder is telling stories about the old days. There are not even any bears at the zoo anymore.

This is big, folks. It is fascinating to watch. The stock market is going to crack open like an egg going forward. If the retail crowd that jumped into the rally, and now have big profits, decide to take those profits and jump ship getting out of all their stocks, it could be a spectacular crash on tap. For now, the multi-month stock market top continues through, say, SPX 6200-6700.

Keybot the Quant remains long currently and is tracking copper and commodities as the two key drivers of stock market direction. S&P futures are down -5 points Sunday evening on the East Coast call it flat. What was that? Did you hear it? It sounded like a growl. Something hairy is moving in those bushes and its not Uncle Dave.

Plan accordingly because this may be one of those times where you wake up in the morning and it is too late. We need some Jimmy Reed since the market will have everyone running, hiding, going up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll. Baby What You Want Me To Do. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/23/25, at 3:16 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6698.88 and new all-time closing high at 6693.75. It is a 2-day Apple rally pumping AAPL over +8% higher sending indexes skyward to new record highs. In addition, NVDA announces a deal with OpenAI so the tech crowd goes wild. Humorously, at the same time, a circle-jerk is exposed where NVIDIA makes investments in small tech firms and those companies take the money and buy NVDA chips. Sure, that will end well. The last couple days of stock market euphoria are purely due to Apple.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.