Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear camp on Friday morning at SPX 5643. The critical bull/bear lines in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market environment is NYA 19335 and SPX 5662. Once these failed, it was lights out. Sayonara. Then XLF 49.76 failed so it was time for Willie to sing that The Party's Over.

Keybot the Quant

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Traders Remain Complacent, Euphoric and Fearless Despite Stock Market Selloff; More Pain On the Way

It is fun watching this market behavior that is one for the record books. Despite the one-month selloff in stocks, it is as if it never happened, traders and investors remain bigtime bullish ready to buy any dip. It is hilarious . Human greed knows no bounds. The bull party is never-ending as the low put/calls verify. It is midnight and the band has to wrap things up but the crowd will not stop groovin'. Million Miles Away. The chicks are swinging and dancing to the beat and do not want the stock market fun to end.

This bull party continues with traders buying any stock with a heartbeat singing and dancing despite the -7% drop in the SPX and loss of -10% and more in the Nazzy indexes. This is when everyone is too liquored-up and the haymakers start flying.

Since the complacency and fearlessness will not subside, the pain level is going to be turned up to 11, a la Spinal Tap. You dummies will have to pay with more stock market losses until you feel panic in your mind and heart. Keystone loves to see the panic and fear in the eyes as he takes the shares away and delivers the heads on a platter. It is fun. People need taught a lesson and brought to heel because they remain too complacent about the stock market; the selling pressure will continue.

In the prior CPC put/call ratio charts when Keystone was calling the top in February, a 200 to 800-point drawdown was expected and it was about 650 points (so far); not too shabby. The bag holders are still shocked they lost -30% of their money over the last month. One idiot said everyone on television said to buy in late February; he did and got hosed. It was a pump and dump, moron. The institutions were distributing shares to you, the sucka, so you can hold the bag. Keystone told the losers to go home and ask Mommy and Daddy for more money and come back and play again. Sucka's. Every stock market needs sucka's.

The last tradeable bottom was November and that low in the SPX was not breached until 10 days ago. The green circles show the bottoms; only one measly bottom due to panic and fear. Those other bottoms occurred due to euphoric bullish traders anxious to buy dips. We may have to go down another 650 points before you are taught a lesson. Would you like that? Well, we are going to go down due to the complacency it is only a question of how much.

Watch the SPX weekly chart. It will form positive divergence over the coming weeks and enable you to call the bottom. It will be interesting to see if it is a tradeable bottom like November with rampant fear and panic (when you want to buy) or if it is another cheesy bottom like the garbage shown above.

The red circles show the tops for the stock market due to the rampant fearlessness and euphoria. Traders must pay with their hides until they kneel in fear and panic, and then a true relief rally with legs will occur. The SPX weekly chart may potentially set up with possie d in 2 to 3 weeks. You do not have to guess; simply watch the chart and it will set up with positive divergence going forward and you can call the bottom on the weekly basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/25/25, at 5:12 AM EST: Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls refuse to stop partying. Everyday is fun and frolic with zero worries that the stock market can ever go down again. It is fun to watch. The put/calls drop like rocks as the SPX catapults 100 points higher after King Donnie proclaims that the tariffs will be lessened. The orange head balked with all his bravado tariff and trade talk over the last couple months. The charts verify that the minute he was elected, commodities ran higher, this is goods inflation, that accounted for the overall inflation buoyancy over the last 4 months. The current on-month data shows inflation subsiding a hair; of course it is because commodities, goods inflation, is pulling back after the 4-month run higher from November. Look at a chart, idiots. Service inflation is bumping along flat so the behavior in goods (commodities) dictates the path of overall inflation going forward. The orange light bulb went off in Donnie's head finally realizing it is the Trump Trade and Tariff War that causes the inflation. Donnie waters down the tariff talk and voila, the stock market rallies and talk of inflation subsides. The CPC drops to 0.76, and CPCE is down to 0.48, on the big up day for equities yesterday with traders and investors becoming MORE complacent and fearless about the stock market. Par-tay! Rock n Roll All Nite and party every day. You folks really need taught a harsh lesson, don't you? This is epic behavior hinting that we are in a major top (the long term SPX monthly chart is topped-out or will be within 2 months) probably far more significant than the dotom bubble of 1999-2002 or the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Perhaps King Donnie, donning his paper crown he got with his Burger King meal, will provide a twofer, becoming the modern-day Neville Chamberlain (World War III) and modern-day Herbert Hoover (Great Depression redux)? It is fascinating watching the final throes of America's crony capitalism system. The next decade will be nutso.

Note Added Saturday, 3/29/25: The SPX mini-crashes on Friday losing 112 points, -2%, dropping to 5581. Of course it did. There is finally a wee bit of fear coming into the stock market. If you keep beating folks, eventually they realize that it is unpleasant, starting to hurt, and they want it to stop. The CPC and CPCE put/calls move higher as expected with the mini-crash but are still not in the all-out capitulative panic mode. Is that on tap next week with a Black Monday or Black Tuesday or Black Wednesday? King Donnie's tariff day is Wednesday, 4/2/25, when the Trump Trade and Tariff War kicks into high gear, so that would be interesting if Trump flushes the US stock market down the toilet on hump day. The important low from 3/13/25 is 5505. The real trouble and mayhem begins below 5505, should it occur.

NVDA NVIDIA Daily Chart; Death Cross

The NVDA death cross was all the rage yesterday on business television and the internet. A death cross! Oh no! Hide the women and children! Anything but the death cross! All hope is lost! Calm down. Don't panic. The death cross is only one arrow in the technical quiver.

The death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses down through the 200-day MA forecasting troubling bearish times and destruction ahead. Conversely, the golden cross is when the 50 pierces up through the 200 to signal happy days and rainbows and puppy dogs ahead. Neither is quite the case because the media does not understand the behavior of the crosses.

When a death cross occurs, it comes after many weeks and months of soggy prices that must roll the 50-day MA over and to the downside to set its sights on the 200. This takes time so typically when the death cross occurs, price bounces. The key is whether price remains below the 50 because, by definition, the 50 can only be dragged lower, and continue its slope lower, if price remains below the 50.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, NVDA already begins bouncing before the death cross occurs. It makes sense since price is trending down for this year after those November and early-year highs. Price is stumbling sideways trying to regain its footing after the beat-down from Valentine's Day to early March. Talk about a jilted lover. Paul at Hyde.

The 50-day MA is 127 and dropping. Both the 50 and 200-day MA's are important so back kisses would be expected going forward. Very simply, when price comes up to back test the downward-falling 50-day MA, probably around 122-125, it will have to make a bounce or die decision. If price continues below the 50-day MA, the death cross remains valid and NVDA will be sick for many weeks forward. If NVDA pops back above the 50-day MA, the stock will stabilize, and then you can watch to see if the golden cross occurs in a few weeks to steer the chip ship around.

The daily chart hints that some additional upward buoyancy will occur with price perhaps to 122-125-ish. The weekly chart hints at a lot of sideways slop and chop ahead. The monthly chart, sorry to say for AI fanboys, is busted for NVDA. Based on the charts now, the path forward will be choppy sideways slop with a consistent downward bias probably through spring and summer into Fall. Thus, the death cross will probably maintain itself for a while.

The AI hype is rampant with daily promises of grandeur and yet no delivery of firm hard solid goods and examples exactly detailing how much money was saved. AI is keeping the softward engineers employed, at least for now. AI will allow call centers to can more employees and make your telephone experience even worse.

Will the billions in investment in AI chips and manhours prove worthwhile, or will companies be left holding the AI chip bag, only left to fry eggs on the overheating chips? The new chip will be called rubin after the scientist but what do you think of when you hear rubin? Of course, a reuben sandwich. Yuck. Nasty. It is an acquired taste. Some folks will crawl over crushed glass for a reuben sandwich but Keystone will pass on that and go with a BLT instead. Concerning the new reuben, er, rubin chip, people may take it or leave it like the sammich.

Keystone is not trading NVDA long or short currently. There is not much of a trade there long or short right now. Perhaps wait for the daily chart to move higher and form neggie d and that would be a potential area for a short; use the 2-hour to enter that if it becomes available. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: NVDA drops to 109.67. The prior low is 3/11/25 at 104.76. If 104.76 is lost, price is likely headed to the 75-95 landing zone.

US COVID-19 Infection Waves (New Cases Per Day) -- Content Sample of Soon-To-Be Published "Coronavirus Chronology" Books

Everyone is glad the COVID-19 pandemic is in the rearview mirror. Keystone continues preparing the Coronavirus Chronology books for publication. Writing the Coronavirus Chronology was a labor of love and done as a service to the United States of America. Keystone wrote for 4 to 6 hours per day, 7 days per week, for 3 years (2020-2023) chronicling each day of the COVID-19 pandemic. Paraphrasing Trotsky, Keystone was not interested in chronicling the pandemic, but the pandemic was interested in him.

The text is 1.2 million words the size of two War and Peace novels. In addition, Keystone provided nearly 1,000 COVID-19 infection charts for all the US states and countries around the world typically during the worst times of their infection waves. The Coronavirus Chronology will serve as the official historical document of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Any research on the pandemic or deep dive into details about the coronavirus saga should begin with the Coronavirus Chronology. The following books will probably be published this year;

Coronavirus Chronology Volume 1 Waves 1 through 4; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 2 Waves 5 and 6; Coronavirus Chronology Volume 3 Waves 7a, 7b and 8; Coronavirus Chronology Overview; Coronavirus Chronology Conclusions; Coronavirus Chronology Endemic Phase February 2023 to 2025; Coronavirus Chronology Timeline 2019 through 2025.

The infection wave chart above for the US daily new cases shows the 8 pandemic waves with wave 6 the worst. The world's daily new cases chart displays 10 waves during the pandemic. It is quite a saga and the only place where the whole sordid tale exists is the Coronavirus Chronology.

Keystone wrote 104 articles during the pandemic spaced at 10-day intervals. After each article was published on The Keystone Speculator blog, updates were provided for each day between each article. You have to be crazy to dedicate 3 years to such a task but Keystone knew it was important work that no one else would do, so he did it, and a little Asperger's high-concentration helps, too.

The chart above is posted to show that the Coronavirus Chronology is unmatched as the official document of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is especially impressive since Keystone had to number the infection waves as they occurred in real-time.

If anyone is currently researching anything concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, and you know what date the event or research item occurred, simply look it up at The Keystone Speculator blog in the archives in the right margin. For example, if you want to know what Dr Fauci said in a speech in May 2021, simply go back in the archives and find that Coronavirus Chronology article in that time frame and it will tell you everything you need to know about what Fauci said and then your research can branch out from there.

Keystone is reading through the entire saga and is about at the halfway point. It is amazing how much you can forget about the heinous pandemic; maybe we do not want to remember.

But there are plenty of funny anecdotal stories, too. For example, when the new Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant was identified as extremely serious, and the WHO needed to give it one of their asinine Greek letter names, the next in line was 'nu' pronounced 'new'. The WHO likely thought that designation would be ridiculed as the "new nu variant" so they went to the next letter that was 'xi'. That was funny because it is dirtbag Dictator Xi's name (communist China) and the WHO did not want to use that letter. So what was the next Greek letter that the WHO chose to call the Botswana/South Africa B11529 variant? Omicron.

The Coronavirus Chronology is the China Virus Bible. It chronicled all the information that you forgot. The Coronavirus Chronology allows you to relive the pandemic from start to finish, if you dare.

The chart above is posted so anyone involved in COVID-19 research can start calling out the 8 infection waves by the same numbers since it all matches the text of the soon-to-be published Coronavirus Chronology.

With a little luck, the first 3 volumes and the 1,000 covid infection charts will likely be published in May, maybe June. Keystone has been retired for a couple of decades and does not want the work to cut into his goof-off time especially since he already dedicated 3 years of his life to properly chronicle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keystone only wanted the United States to have a proper historical record of the once in a century covid pandemic so he did it himself. Hundreds of thousands of international readers followed the Coronavirus Chronology during the pandemic that is, until Keystone was blacklisted and censored, which is all part of the saga as well.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side today at SPX 5667. Commodities jump into the bull camp and the cyclical bull/bear lines in the sand, NYA 19295 and SPX 5666, are taken out to the upside by the bulls that give strength to the relief rally. Chairman Powell is on deck for hump day afternoon so the markets are theatrics until the Fed tells everyone how to trade.

Watch VIX 16.89. If stocks rally, but the VIX cannot fall below 16.89, the rally is garbage and will roll over and die. If VIX drops below 16.89, the relief rally in stocks is locked-in and headed higher. Powell is picking up his dovish wings at the cleaners tonight and also his necktie from the last meeting that had a jelly stain from the free buffet.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

It is comical and standard fare. All the jackasses that did not call the top in the stock market are now calling the bottom--every day. People lost their money because their financial manager did not see the top, but the same fools call the same managers asking them what to do next. The dip-buyers are rabid willing to bet their home on a new rally.

The euphoric bullishness remains off the charts and is especially noticeable since everyone says it is not occurring. Folks may diss the market, but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. Doesn't any of these idiots look at charts? No, they don't.

The red lines show the Keystone top call. It is nothing fancy or hard to do. Price kept making higher highs but ALL the indicators ran out of gas and began sloping down as price made the new highs. This is called negative divergence and is how you call the tops. Once the neggie d forms, there will be a neggie d spankdown in that timeframe. This is a weekly chart so a multi-week down move was forecasted and occurs.

The selloff is 4 weeks along and again, everybody and his bro are buying the dips, one moron after the other wanting to be the hero. Jesse Livermore they ain't. Look at the chart. What do you see? Nasty. The RSI moves below 50% into bear territory and is weak and bleak. Ditto the stochastics. The MACD, histogram and money flow are also weak and bleak. Sure, stocks are set-up for a relief rally in the very short-term looking at the daily chart, but the weekly chart above tells you that many weeks of weakness remain ahead.

Price has stabbed through the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band at 5953 is on the table going forward. The selling volume is massive and it is had to imagine how this would ever be overtaken by buying volume in the future. Institutions are locking in profits and leave Joe Sixpack and Carmelita Sucka holding the bag of excrement at the top. Just think of all the television hype since the Fall with one commentator after another pumping and dumping telling you to, "buy, buy, buy!" Well, anyone that chased stocks above 5800 on the hype, and took the shares that the smart money was distributing, got, "hosed, hosed, hosed."

The pink ADX box shows that the strong trend higher in the stock market ended at the end of last summer around Labor Day. That is another tell of a top. The strong trend higher is gone but the index keeps making higher highs; you know something is amiss.

The Aroon red line is humorous. Another reason for the top, Keystone discussed all this in prior charts when he was calling the top, was that all the bears were 100% bullish on stocks just like the bulls. That was funny. Now the red line spikes to 100% so all the bears are finally bearish again. Equally funny, is the Aroon green line that shows the bulls have not budged an inch. As discussed at the start or this post, the bulls remain super bullish even though the stock market is off about -7% from the record high. The bulls still need taught a lesson because there is no fear in the market. Stocks need to be bludgeoned until the bulls panic so the beatings will continue until moral improves.

The CPC put/call verifies the ongoing uber bullishness in the stock market despite the collapse in equity prices. The CPCE, however, did spike into panic and fear, for one day, creating the runway for the Friday stock market orgy, but is now down in complacent territory again. There are many metrics verifying that the bulls simply remain too bullish so additional spanks, smacks, and slaps are needed on the weekly basis.

The daily chart is set-up with some positive divergence and stocks need at least a dead-cat bounce to catch their breath. The fall from grace has been impressive. Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Wednesday so stocks will likely be in a holding pattern until he flaps either his dovish or hawkish wings and dictates how traders should trade. Typically, stocks are up 80% of the time on Tuesday and Wednesday into the Fed drama.

Happy St Patty's Day. It is springtime so Keystone is letting that famous Irishman, Pat-i-o Furniture, out of the shed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. 

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; 150-Day MA Potentially Rolling Over to Usher-In a Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. If the 150-day is sloping higher, it is a cyclical bull market, like now, and if the moving average slopes lower, it is a a cyclical bear market. Last week, the 150-day MA is starting to flatten in preparation of rolling over.

By definition, the 150-day MA cannot slope lower unless price is below the moving average pulling it lower like a lead anchor. That is happening now. Price is down at 5639 way below the 150-day MA at 5839, two hundo points below, so it continues to pull and tug the 150 lower.

Thus, the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market as per the slope of the SPX 150-day MA but watch it like a hawk since the 150-day MA may roll over and start sloping lower which would usher-in a cyclical bear market.

The critical SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross metrics have both failed ushering in a cyclical bear market. The slope of the 150-day MA does not yet join the party. Come on, little girl, have some fun with the bears. So Caught Up In You, little girl.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, you can verify if the stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern by following the 3 metrics mentioned. If the SPX-12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross turn bullish reversing the cyclical bear back into a cyclical bull market and join the 150-day MA that starts sloping higher again, the future is bright for stocks that will rally to new highs. Bulls will be saved. It seems like a stretch.

If the SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross remain in the cyclical bear market pattern (see the other charts), and the 150-day MA shown above rolls over lower, it is all over but the crying. The cyclical bear market will be confirmed going forward and the carnage will deepen on Wall Street. It looks like the easier path, but Fed Chairman Powell speaks Wednesday so anything can happen.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for the SPX to run above 5839 and the SPX 150-day MA to start sloping higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX 150-day MA flattens (like now) and rolls over lower, to join the already negative SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross, you are going to lose boatloads of money.

After all these many months, the bulls may finally be breaking down. Foggy Mountain Breakdown with humble Master Scruggs holding court. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls. The 150-day MA at 5848 continues sloping slightly higher but the longer that price remains below 5848, it will pull the 150-day MA down and likely flatten it, and roll it over to the downside, creating cyclical bear market pain going forward. Keep watching it.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. The 150-day MA is flattening and just took a slight dip lower at 5852. You are watching the conception of a cyclical bear market going forward.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 12-Mth MA Fails Ushering-In Cyclical Bear Market

 

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the SPX 12-month MA cross. Last week, the SPX collapses through the 12-month MA at 5663 to a low at 5504 and price ended the week at 5639, below the 12-mth MA, ushering-in a cyclical bear market.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for SPX 5663 and higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX remains below 5663 trending lower, you are going to lose a lot of money.

After all these many months, the bears tell the bulls Goodbye to You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: SPX drops to 5581. The prior low is 5505. Bad things would happen below 5505. 

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; 40-Wk MA Fails Ushering-in Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the NYA 40-week MA cross. Last week, the NYA collapses through the 40-week MA at 19259 to a low at 18818 and price ended the week at 19231, below the 40-wk MA, ushering-in a cyclical bear market.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for NYA 19259 and higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the NYA remains below 19259 trending lower, you are going to lose a lot of money.

After all these many months since the October 2023 bottom, it is time for Deliverance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The NYA remains above the critical 40-wk MA at 19300 that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market. The bulls are Stayin' Alive. Great walking music for the NYC streets as you ponder the fate of the markets.

Note Added Sunday, 3/30/25: NYA fails at the 40-wk MA at 19335. Bad things will happen if NYA remains below 19335. It is the conception of a cyclical bear market. 

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Testing the 50-Wk MA Trap-Door at 986

The bulls are standing over the trap-door at the gallows once again. The UTIL 50-wk MA at 985.68 is a key metric for the stock market; call it 985.50-985.70. If price fails at this level, the trap-door opens and the US stock market falls into Hades. Since it has been teasing the trap-door open and shut in recent days, if it fails, it may lock itself into the downside this time.

The fate of the stock market is in the hands of the utes. If UTIL can bounce from here and stay away from the trap-door, and begin to trend higher, the stock market pullback is a run of the mill pullback and should not be a big deal. It does not mean a relief rally will start immediately, just that the rally is on the come and the dire scenario of Armageddon will be avoided.

If UTIL fails at 985.60-ish, it is over. The trap-door will fling open and the stock indexes will be hung, then tossed into Hades and then dragged through the firey pits. That does not sound pleasant. Stop Draggin' My Heart Around. If the trap-door opens, the stock market has a long way lower ahead.

Choose your poison. If you are one of the consensus, and continue to hold all your longs and proclaiming that stocks will recover, as you wipe beads of sweat off your forehead, and the trap-door opens, you are going to lose a lot of money. Bulls root for utilities. Bears root for utes to collapse. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: UTIL teased failure at 986 but the bulls save the day and keep the trap-door shut, for now. UTIL runs higher to 1010. The broad stock market recovers on Friday. For the week ahead, bulls win bigtime with UTIL 1035.53, while bears will begin a new round of market carnage with UTIL 986. The market makers parked price exactly in the middle.

GOLD Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; GOLD HITS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH ABOVE 3,000

Gold is cooked. Stick a fork in it. Say what? The gold bugs scream, "Blasphemy!" How dare you say the yellow metal is topped out? You must be smoking Acapulco Gold. The yellow metal is everyone's fave. It only goes up, never down. Everybody and his bro, including the Uber driver and Betty, the lady in the purple hair net in the cafeteria, say gold is going to the moon and beyond. The chef and the servers in the cafeteria begin singing, "Gold." The cook is tappin' on the cans.

Everyone can continue fantasizing about gold but the weekly chart above is topped-out and should experience multiple weeks of downside ahead. The only thing that can save gold is positive news of some sort that would hit the wires out of the blue. Otherwise, she is going down.

Fundamental-wise, the global central bankers are hoarding gold and want it in their physical possession probably because they know a Great Depression Redux may be on the horizon. This rabid buying behavior by the world's central bankers has sent gold price skyward. How long can that last? There were many festivals in India in recent weeks and those folks love them some gold so perhaps that also accounts for recent gold buying enthusiasm. You have to keep honey happy with some gold.

Keystone last posted a gold chart to call the top in October. Back then, Fed Chairman Powell's comments created gold buying. That is when the news about central bankers buying pallets of gold bars started to become common knowledge. Gold received the neggie d spankdown in the Fall 2024 but recovered on the central banker gold-buying hype into this year's record top at 2974 only 26 bucks from 3K.

The screen printer already delivered the "GOLD 3K" hats to the exchanges but they are kept inside the cardboard boxes for now. Do you think they will be pulled-out anytime soon? Not for a couple months or so, says the peanut gallery.

All of you should know how to read the chart above by now, otherwise, Keystone has failed in his teachings. The red lines show price making higher or matching highs but the indicators went neggie d. She is out of gas and the last 1-1/2 weeks show a directionless gold price waiting for the shoe to drop (a neggie d smackdown).

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. Gold tags the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 2758 and lower band at 2536 are on the table.

The orange circles show that the selling volume 3 weeks ago has outpaced all buying volume going back to the Fall. Price likely wants to come down to that orange area, say 2700-ish, to check that price level since that was the last week with strong buying volume.

The purple arrows show tight bands that forecast huge moves and the gold bulls kept winning the day. Well, the party is over now. Yeah, it's over now. Gold should decline for a few weeks so the remainder of March and into April. The 2600-2760 area may be the first stop and then reassess the charts.

If good news does occur and gold feels some love, like the ladies receiving the gold, price may remain buoyant for a few days or week or so, but the weak chart is not going away, and at that time, gold would be expected to roll over and die, on the weekly basis.

Looking at the gold daily chart, it topped-out on 2/25/25 and receives the neggie d slapdown. Gold stumbles sideways waiting for news. The daily chart is not telling you much, however, the 20-day MA is 2923 and price is 2921 back kissing the 20 from the underside. It is bounce or die time. Gold bulls win big above 2923. Gold bears win big below 2923.

Looking at the gold monthly chart, wow, booooiiiinnngg. It must be on that Viagra stuff. For the last year, gold is a moonshot. Anyone sitting in gold has zero to complain about. The monthly chart makes the higher price high and the chart indicators are neggie d sans the MACD line. Gold bulls rejoice!

Put it all together, remember, trading is playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The daily chart is not tipping its hand except for the bounce or die coming from 2923. The daily chart was/is receiving a neggie d spankdown that morphed into sideways behavior due to the King Donnie drama. The weekly chart is toast. The monthly chart remains bullish because of the long and strong MACD.

Thus, gold is going to receive a multi-week down move maybe into the 2400-2700 area. You will have to watch the progress of the charts.

After the multi-week down move for gold, it will rebound again and come up for a new all-time record high. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down. When gold breached 2800, that places 3200 on the table. The 2880 level leads to 2920 where price sits now. A move to 2980 will open the door to 3020. A move down to 2820 will open the door to 2780.

After the multi-week down move is over, sometime in April, and the rally starts due to possie d on the weekly chart, price will run higher probably to 3200-3240, on the monthly basis, and that may be a mother of a top since the monthly chart would probably top-out with neggie d in say, the May-June time frame. Gold would then be expected to move down for many months if not a couple years or more. But you do not have to think about that until the monthly chart tops-out with neggie d probably around May or June.

Thus, if you are long gold, you can clench your buttocks and ride the move lower now and for the next 3 to 6 weeks, and then back up again for a few weeks, or, you could sell now and reload long in April at the lower prices.

Keystone is not playing gold or its derivatives long or short currently but obviously he would be on the short side now into early April. Gold is at 2914 as this message is finished. Thus, a move below 2920 opens the door to 2880. The 20-day MA resistance ceiling holds for now. Gold on the Ceiling. Hurry-up, you are late for the Black Keys show. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 3/12/25: Gold jumps 33 bucks to 2947 teasing towards the all-time highs. Nothing's changed. Simply watch the neggie d on the weekly. Traders think the Fed is more likely to cut rates sooner due to economic data so gold pops. The Fed meeting is next Wednesday when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell everyone how to trade. The price action until then is somewhat meaningless. In 5 trading days, there will likely be wild moves in Treasuries, stocks, the dollar, gold, bitcoin, etc.... Powell is picking up his white dovish wings at the cleaners so he can wear them next week as he walks on stage for the Q&A. The crony capitalism markets have become a caricature of themselves.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: A gold orgy occurs late in the week sending the yellow metal above 3K now at 3001. The news of a weaker economy and lower consumer sentiment creates angst in markets and recession worries and fears. Traders believe the Fed will have to cut rates sooner and faster due to the flailing economy so gold is bid higher tagging 3,000. Also, the Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff Wars heat-up with the orange head lashing out at everyone that does not bend the knee for thee. The chaos spooks investors so they seek gold as a haven. Central banks keep buying. All that said, nothing has changed. Price has momo due to the happy talk but should top out as described above over the coming days. The breach of 2980 hints that 3020 is on the come so a logical place for the top on the weekly basis, and beginning of the multi-week pullback, would be from 3020-3030 or lower. People may be starting to feel that nothing is worth investing in except gold and silver since they are tangible assets. The Federal Reserve is likely squeezed into a stagflation box. Inflation may not move strongly higher but it may not go down either, so the draining of people's funds continues indefinitely killing family budgets. If the economy weakens, the Fed will want to cut rates, hence that is why stocks and gold pop, but they cannot be too aggressive because they will be making inflation worse further smashing common Americans into dust. Chairman Powell has four days to decide who his master is; inflation or the economy. Sadly, it is probably heads you lose, tails you lose. Gold and stock market enthusiasts fully expect Powell to fly into the press room on Wednesday flapping white dove wings and will be aghast if he shows up with black hawk wings on his back. Hump day is the big day in the week ahead.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts; Fibonacci Retracements for the October 2022 and October 2023 Bottoms

There are two key bottoms after the 2022 lull; October 2022 and October 2023. The stock market orgies continued into the February 2025 top when equities fell off a cliff as forecasted by Keystone and no other analyst. It was nothing fancy, just neggie d as usual.

So down we go and people are finally showing some concern. Stocks keep going down because traders and investors will not lose their bullishness. Everyone is still talking about buying the dip. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

The October 2023 bottom, and what a nice bottom it is, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 5356, the 50% Fib is 5116, and 61.8% Fib is 4876.

The October 2022 bottom, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% retracement to 5151, the 50% Fib is at 4848, and the 61.8% Fib is down at 4544.

What do you notice? Yes, the Fib retracements of the rallies from the two different bottoms share commonality. The 50% fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 5116 and the 38% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 5151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the 5116-5151 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Also, the 62% Fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 4876 and the 50% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 4848. Thus, the 4848-4876 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Of course, the starting points at the October 2022 bottom and October 2023 bottom would be 100% retracements and on the table for a full-fledged historic stock market crash.

So first thing is first. If stocks continue falling apart, the 5356 is the first Fibonacci support level that will try to stop the selling. If it fails, the next line of Fibonacci defense is 5116-5151 and, if it fails, the 4848-4876 Fib's are next in line and, if they fail, and you are still long stocks, do what you would do if your airplane lost both engines. Put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye.

Note how the Fibonacci retracements line-up with the lows from last summer so that gives the 5116-5151 landing zone additional clout (maybe for later this year and 2026).

We shall see if the selloff has Legs to go with those fine bottoms. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: The SPX places a low last week at 5505 and ends the week at 5639 making a bounce or die decision from the 50-week MA at 5656.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

As previously explained, the SPX is in a multi-week down move. Trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The weakness should continue in the weekly time frame until positive divergence forms in that time frame. In the shorter term time frame, the daily chart, you can see she has been trying to set-up with possie d.

A few days ago, all the chart indicators were positively diverged sans the MACD line but as always happens when trying to herd kittens, as you try to wrangle the last one, another one gets away. The money flow has now turned weak and bleak again. The RSI is possie d but never reached oversold territory. The histogram is bottomed and wants to see a relief rally. Ditto the stochastics that are also oversold agreeable to a bounce.

Thus, a jog move of one or two more bottoms are needed to place THE bottom in the daily time frame when the MACD and money flow turn possie d. That means either up-down-up and away, or up-down-up-down-up and away. That lines up the week ahead as the bottom take your pick of the day. You have to wait for the possie d to form for all indicators before you can call the bottom. If stocks bounce on Monday, then slump on Tuesday and you see the MACD and money flow go possie d, you will know the bottom is in on the daily basis.

These markets are erratic and unstable so sometimes what may happen, especially with King Donnie now siding with Putin in the Ukraine War helping Vlad kill Ukrainians, is that price may collapse to begin the week. Maybe a Black Monday or Black Tuesday? If the mood turns sufficiently sour, now that Donnie has tied Zelensky to the mast and is allowing Putin to take target practice, stocks may collapse next week. If this happens, keep looking for possie d to form, but with a big down draft, the daily chart may resign itself to then not bottom until the weekly chart bottoms so keep an eye on the weekly chart to see when possie d forms.

The brown arrows show the tight standard deviation bands that squeeze out humongous moves but they do not predict direction. Down was the obvious direction this time. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 5977, and dropping, is on the table for the relief rally (it will drop a lot more as price moves higher to potentially meet it). 

The 200-day MA at 5733 was all the rage last week especially for chart novices. Everyone becomes a chart expert when stocks tank even those that diss technical analysis. Sure, the 200 is key but the 50-wk MA at 5648 and 12-mth MA at 5674 (cyclical market indicator) are far more important. That is why price came down to the Satanic 5666 for a look-see at this critical 5648-5674 support area that is also a juicy gap from September.

Watch the MACD and money flow to call the bottom on the daily basis. The Fed meeting is next Wednesday, 3/19/25, so if there is more selling it would probably occur in the week ahead and then stocks will likely want to be buoyant next week into the Fed expecting Santa Powell to deliver candy for the wealthy. St Patty's Day is Monday, 3/14/25, so maybe people will be drunk then and buying stocks in a stupor. The full moon peaks for the month this Friday, 3/14/25, so stocks may feel a lift from Thursday into the Fed meeting on hump day.

Trump is causing lots of chaos and turmoil in the stock market so his mouth on Sunday (tomorrow) likely determines what the stock market does on Monday. Isn't that ridiculous? And sickening? What is all that chatter about people not clapping for the boy with cancer? Anyone with a heart should have at least clapped for the young man especially if you have helped someone with a cancer illness, and watched them die.

Keystone did not waste his life watching the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown address Congress in that windbag speech of almost 2 hours. That is hilarious that anyone would sit through that; if so, you need to get a life. Only 1 in 10 Americans watched the Trump speech and most of them likely flipped the channel at some point. Wasn't it all the same Donnie dribble? Why don't you do something productive with your life instead of listening to that verbal diarrhea from the demopublicans and republocrats. One political party is as corrupt as the other.

Keystone was asked an opinion about the boy with cancer at the speech. Keystone ponders the question, using his wisdom gained from the Shaolin masters, to posit one question to all of you corrupt people. Is the worst person the one who did not clap to encourage the sick child, or is the worst person the one who used the child as a prop?

Billy was in Milan, Italy, and hanging out with a street musician, playing an AC/DC tune. The guy asked Billy for a tip (about the music business). Billy told him, "Buy a new guitar." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 3/9/25: S&P futures are down -45 points due to the Donnie Trump Tariff and Trade Wars and the Ukraine War drama. King Donnie, the modern-day Neville Chamberlain, is allowing scumbag Dictator Putin to freely shell Ukraine killing civilians while telling the world that Vlad is an okay guy and wants peace. History rhymes. The sight is disturbing to global markets. Another concern is King Donnie saying a couple hours ago that a US recession may occur this year and higher inflation. That is not what he promised on the campaign trail but when did a politician ever tell the truth? 

Note Added Monday Evening, 3/10/25: The SPX collapses 156 points today, -2.7%, to 5615. The daily chart indicators continue pointing down.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cyclical Stock Market Indicators

Two of Keystone's key cyclical stock market indicators are the SPX monthly chart with 12-mth MA cross and the NYA weekly chart with 40-wk MA cross. Huh? What is he talking about? What language is that? The charts show how the current cyclical bull market started in 2023 and has not looked back.

Both charts, however, are testing their key levels that would usher in an ugly cyclical bear market for US equities. The SPX was flying high but topped-out with negative divergence as explained and forecasted by Keystone before it happened (look back at and study previous charts if you want to learn how to call tops and bottoms).

The SPX 12-month MA is at 5674 and rising. Price makes a low at the ominous and Satanic 5666 but bounces to end the Friday session at 5770. The 12-mth MA ruptures but the bulls recover. If the SPX loses the 5672-5674 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

The NYA is the NYSE Composite a broad measure of US equities. The 40-week MA is 19228 and rising. Price makes a low at 19291 but bounces to end the Friday session at 19573. The 40-wk MA is not yet punctured but price was in the neighborhood. Usually when price is sneaking around the neighborhood looking in windows, it will knock on the 40-wk MA door to test its support strength. If the NYA loses the 19224-19228 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

If both metrics lose their critical moving averages and forecast a cyclical bear market ahead, stocks have a long way to drop.

If utilities drop, a crash may occur. If UTIL loses the 50-wk MA at 983 (see previous chart), and the above two metrics fail, it is highly likely that the US stock market will crash. It's fun.

Watch the SPX and NYA closely and if you see either slip into a cyclical bear market profile, and you remain long the stock market, it is time for you to clench your buttocks, and think of excuses you will tell your wife for losing your children's college fund. Don't Go Back to Rockville. You'll wind up in some factory. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 3/10/25: The SPX collapses 156 points today, -2.7%, to 5615. The SPX loses the 12-mth MA at 5664 and the NYA loses the 40-wk MA at 19260 so stocks fall apart. UTIL, however, did not lose the 986 level. Watch it closely since that would usher in Armageddon.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator; US LABOR RECESSION IS 18 MONTHS ALONG FACING A BIG TEST; US LABOR RECESSION CONTINUES INTO 19 MONTHS AFTER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 4.1%

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 18 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; 1-1/2 YEARS!! The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) started in 2024 and continues in 2025. This link takes you to the prior labor recession article with more detail and it lists the layoffs occurring in 2025.

How can this be? If America is in labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, than it is guaranteed to be in an overall economic recession. Not anymore, buckaroo. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype has spiked the Fed punchbowl creating a stock market orgy so obscene that Caligula would blush.

The 15 years of Federal Reserve money-printing gooses stocks higher enriching the wealthy that own the stock market and only creates a few token jobs. It has created a sick economic environment where price discovery no longer exists.

America is a crony capitalism system that creates the land of the have's and have-not's. 30 million in the elite privileged class, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, screwed the other 300 million Americans over the last 5 decades. The rich are loaded with cash and it is their spending, along with chips and AI hype, that has kept the economy afloat the last year.

The top 10% wealthy Americans, the 30 million, account for nearly one-half the consumer spending in the US. 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. Welcome to the United States, land of crony capitalism, well, not for too much longer.

And we cannot forget King Donnie, the Tariff Man. He promises to slash banking regulations, provide tax cuts, start cutting prices on day one, and provide a chicken in every pot. How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips are moving. Countries are onto Donnie's schtick and willing to call his bluff.

King Donnie brags that he knows Washington, DC, now since he had a first term but what the orange head does not understand is that everyone knows him as well. Donnie may find the path ahead more difficult than he thinks since people will now be willing to call his bluffs since they know him to be a bloviating blowhard. Trump is back pedaling again on the Canada and Mexico tariffs; the situation changes every 10 minutes. Way to create stability, orange head. 

On the good side of the ledger that prevents the overall US recession is chips and AI but that show is getting old and people are less inclined to buy tickets. America's wealthy, that were made filthy rich by the Fed's money-printing, are starting to tighten their wallets and reduce spending. It will not be long before the Mercedes, Escalades and BMW's begin showing up in Aldi, Dollar General and Walmart parking lots. Who does not like a bargain, right?

As Keystone explained in the last article, most businesses sh*t-can their employees in the January through March period since this is when the new yearly budgets begin and it is nice to start with the dead weight gone. The prior article lists the layoffs that occurred this year and it will probably surprise people because the job losses are not as publicized as in the old days. A one-day blurb will say a company is laying workers off and then it disappears.

The 18-month labor recession faces a major test on Friday morning 3/7/25. The unemployment rate is at 4.0%. If the rate remains at 4.0% or higher, the labor recession remains in place. If the rate drops to 3.9% or lower, wow, the labor recession ends and the labor recovery begins, which would be surprising, but who knows nowadays? Another month's data would be needed to confirm the direction change since sometimes the one data point will only be a blip and not matter. The time has come to decide. Beds Are Burning.

The stage is set for a pivotal US Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST Friday morning. A 4.0% rate and higher means pain and misery is ahead. A 3.9% rate and lower means that the analysts saying the economy is strong are correct.

Do you hear that? The BLS jobs circus is coming back to town. If you listen close, you can hear the calliope. Will the unemployment rate remain at 4.0% and higher telling you that recession is on the come, or will it be 3.9% and lower signaling that better times are ahead or at least a stasis? Choose your poison.

Note Added 8:27 AM EST: The Challenger Job Report lays an egg. US companies announce over 172K layoffs for last month a big +245% increase from January. For 172,000 families, there is a brown egg in that Easter basket. About one-third of the cuts, 62K, are the federal job cuts by Emperor Musk and DOGE. Yesterday, the ADP Jobs data was weaker than expected reporting only 77K jobs. People are becoming nervous about the labor picture so the build-up to the big US Monthly Jobs Report in 24 hours intensifies.

Note Added 8:31 AM EST: US Jobless Claims are 221K below the prior 242K and continuing the zombie sideways funk week after week and month after month. Unemployment Claims are not going up, and not going down. Continuing claims are 1.897 million above the expected 1.874 million. The roadies are setting-up the circus tents for tomorrow morning's big jobs carnival act where American lives will be juggled in the air by Uncle Sam balancing himself on stilts. The band is getting ready with the music and all look forward to the arrival of the Ringmaster BLS.

Note Added 5:47 PM EST: HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, takes the pipe in the afterhours the stock in collapse down -19%. HPE is axing 5% of its workforce or 2,500 people. Happy Easter. These employees in their fleece vests did not know they were giving up their jobs for Lent. Now grab a box from the copy room, pack up your family vacation pictures, the potted plant that needs watered, the wall plaques including the certificate from that worthless career-building seminar, and the change in the top desk drawer for the vending machine, and get out. Oh yeah, leave your door card with Betty and you will not be permitted access in these offices or the building again. Thanks for your dedication to the company, and giving up your kid's soccer games to kiss our arse, and for working weekends and evenings without pay, and ratting on other employees behind their backs thinking it would get you ahead, we appreciate all that hard work, now get the hell out. The talk up and down Wall Street this evening is the big US Monthly Jobs Report. Will it be 4.0% or 3.9%? For now, the evening's entertainment continues with dancing bee girl. Give her some encouragement. No Rain.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 4:22 AM EST: The jobs circus is in full swing this morning with analysts walking the tightrope making predictions on the headline jobs number and unemployment rate. Last month's numbers were 143K jobs, a drop to a 4.0% unemployment rate (see above chart), average hourly earnings at 0.5% month on month and 4.1% year on year. Average weekly hours were 34.1. The consensus estimate for this month, with the numbers dropping in 4 hours, is 160K jobs, a steady 4.0% rate, average hourly earnings at 0.3% month on month and 4.1% year on year. Average weekly hours are expected to come in at 34.2. Note that the annual wages number is 4.1% illustrating the Fed's difficulty in finding a path through the current financial and economic maze. When wages start running above 4% or so, steady or rising inflation is guaranteed. If wages are below 4%, that can keep inflation in check. If people are not getting raises, they are not spending as much money, so less money is chasing goods and services. At 4.1% wages, it is another number in no-man's land where it can teeter either way. As explained above, however, the unemployment rate is what matters this morning. A rate of 4.0% and higher is gloom, despair, and agony on thee with bad stuff ahead. A rate of 3.9% and lower paves the way to the end of the 18-mth labor recession and start of a labor recovery that means the economy is stronger than the naysayers think.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 5:18 AM EST: With about 3 hours remaining before the big Jobs Report, S&P futures are up +18, meaningless until the jobs numbers, VIX is at 24.83 creating market angst, US dollar index 103.59, WTIC oil 67.20, Brent 70.37, and copper is down -0.6%. The yields are; 2-year 3.96%, 5-year 4.04%, 10-year 4.27%, 30-year 4.57%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 31 bips, not inverted. European indexes are taking the pipe down from -0.5% to -1.5% playing catch-up to the bloodbath in the US stock indexes yesterday. King Donnie's Tariff and Trade Wars create market chaos.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 8:34 AM EST: The Labor Recession continues with the unemployment rate moving higher to 4.1%. Interestingly, the rate was a hair away from rounding-up to 4.2%. The Jobs Report is 151K jobs, a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1% rate, average hourly earnings at 0.3% month on month and 4.0% year on year. The year on year is below the 4.1% expected. Average weekly hours are steady at 34.2. The  U-6 rate is 8.0% popping from 7.5%. The labor participation rate is 62.4% down from the prior 62.6%.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 8:38 AM EST: S&P +15. VIX 24.10. USD 103.69. WTIC oil 67.36. Brent 70.53. Futures pop higher on the report since people expect more rate cuts in a recession that will goose stocks higher to make the wealthy class richer. The yields are; 2-year 3.91%, 5-year 4.01%, 10-year 4.24%, 30-year 4.56%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 33 bips. The short end yields move down more than the long end widening the spread by a couple bips. The circus is over for another month, and the wagons are rolling out of town. Wagon Wheel. The carnival will be back, however, on April 4th after the King Donnie Tariff War explodes on 4/2/25. Uncertainty and market confusion rules the day until 4/2/25. If you squint, and look way off in the distance, you can see what looks like the Godot Recession coming into view. 

Note Added Saturday, 3/8/25, at 5:00 AM EST: The stock market staggers around on Friday, like a drunk in Times Square, finishing up +0.6% to 5770 above the 200-day MA at 5733 but dipping down to a LOD at 5666 stabbing at the gap from last September. Price bounced off the 50-wk MA at 5648 that creates strong support along with the price action during July, August and September. Most importantly, since it is a cyclical bear market signal, is the 12-month MA at 5674 also where price bounced. It can get real ugly if SPX 5650 fails and the stock market will likely crash. There is no joy, as Jade sings. Isn't it funny how everyone becomes a chartist when markets tank even folks that constantly diss technical trading. Now is no different. Idiots talking about a subject they do not understand. Watch the 50-wk and especially the 12-mth instead of the 200, jackasses. King Donnie is doing a good job of creating chaos in the US and around the world, and now he has blood on his small pale white hands. Trump is screwing our ally Ukraine cutting off intelligence leaving them defenseless. Dirtbag Dictator Putin continues sending missiles killing Ukrainians. The murderer Putin launches 40 strikes onto Ukraine soil over the last day while Donnie holds Zelensky's hands behind his back. Way to go, Donnie, you now have the blood of 23 dead Ukrainians on your hands (the Russian missiles would have been shot down if Trump was not screwing Ukraine). People are wondering why prices are going up when the orange head promised to drop prices from day one. You be stupid if you believed the lie. The stock market is watching the Donnie Trump Tariff and Trade Wars and the Ukraine War to see if the orange head continues kissing Putin's behind while he kills Ukrainians. What a mess. Hey, is that the Godot Recession coming down Main Street? The American circus continues led by 76 Trombones in the big parade, with a hundred and ten cornets close at hand, also followed by rows and rows, of the finest virtuosos.

Note Added Saturday, 3/8/25, at 12:00 PM EST: The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator continues forecasting the ongoing Labor Recession as explained above since the unemployment rate is back up to 4.1%, however, trading is all about what have you done for me lately? What about next month? Looking at the Keystone Model for the next US Monthly Jobs Report on 4/4/25, the unemployment rate can drop to 4.0% and the Labor Recession will still be in play, by a hair, but it still will be ongoing. Of course, any rate that comes in at 4.0% and higher on 4/4/25 means bad things for the economy going forward. The Labor Recession will stop and become a recovery if the unemployment rate drops to 3.9% or lower on 4/4/25. Do you think it is likely that the rate will drop to 3.9% when the rate is now at 4.1% and with a little more oomph yesterday it could have easily been 4.2%? And the impact from the DOGE losses are not yet fully realized. If making a reasonable prognostication, the unemployment rate next month will likely be 4.1%-4.3% so guess what? The Godot Recession parade is now on full display for everyone to see marching past the post office, bank and super market and now approaching the Town Square, where a monument to Keystone exists, the Thinker on the toilet. It does not look good from here forward, folks. Time to gird your loins for the recession. The gifted, and mentally-disturbed writer Ernest Hemingway, when asked about going bankrupt, he said, "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." He said at first it was gradual and did not feel any different, but then it was sudden and jarring and his life changed forever, kind of like what happens when a recession arrives suddenly, and the unemployment rate explodes higher like a rocket ship over a quick 2 or 3 jobs reports.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 3/9/25: S&P futures are down -45 points due to the Donnie Trump Tariff and Trade Wars and the Ukraine War drama. King Donnie, the modern-day Neville Chamberlain, is allowing scumbag Dictator Putin to freely shell Ukraine killing civilians while telling the world that Vlad is an okay guy and wants peace. History rhymes. The sight is disturbing to global markets. Another concern is King Donnie saying a couple hours ago that a recession may occur this year and higher inflation. That is not what he promised on the campaign trail but when did a politician ever tell the truth? A memo is sent to the VA warning of mass layoffs beginning in June. The Donnie and Elonnie Show is creating government employees that will be less productive. If you think you will be on the chopping block in June, you may as well collect a paycheck and goof-off until then, right? It is a shame it is the VA because the veterans always get screwed. It will be interesting to see how much damage is done by mass axing of employees without performing a more detailed analysis to make sure you do not lose really good people. The daily news about DOGE and people being fired and tossed to the curb in this Easter season impacts more folks than the people that are now on the internet filing for unemployment compensation. It impacts all employees in the US. Psychology 101 teaches you that when daily news of mass firings and layoffs occur, everyone will tighten their purse strings going forward afraid they may lose their jobs even though their position is in no jeopardy at all. It is human nature. The problem is that the economy then sputters as business fades, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of thinking something bad would happen and oh no, it happened, so something worse will happen. The coming weeks will be interesting. There it is. Keystone was waiting for the classic picture and video of the employee carrying a storage box out of the government office, with a sad sullen face, perhaps with a small tear under one eye, walking down the lonely sidewalk into an unknown future. Those are the images that start to scare people. Are you next to receive the dreaded news from the boss? In the week ahead, will you walk the Green Mile to the boss's office to receive your pink slip? And the next stop is the copy room to find an empty box, and then fill it with your house plant, wall plaques, coffee mug, family pictures, and desk figurine, and then walk the Green Mile down the lonely sidewalk, carrying your career in a cardboard storage box, into an unknown future.