By K E Stone (Keystone)
The coronavirus (COVID-19; covid) pandemic is spinning out
of control in the United States and getting worse. The numbers keep moving
higher before the article can be finished. The US reports 250,173 daily new
cases yesterday, 12/16/20, the highest ever. Oh my. Tragically, 3,561 Americans
die from covid yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Dear Lord. Where’s
Trump? Bueller? Donnie? Nearly 318K Americans have perished from the
coronavirus pandemic. 1 in 1,000 Americans have died of coronavirus! The tragedy will be at its worst when President Trump
leaves office in January. Hospitalizations are over 113K, no, check that, over
114K, a new record for the United States and ICU’s in southern Texas and New
Mexico are operating at 102% capacity.
President-elect Biden prepares to enter office on 1/20/21
while President “Sore Loser” Trump continues to tell the hat check girl, his
banker and the cop directing traffic on the street corner that he won the
election. Christmas is only eight days away and the holiday mood is somber.
Congress remains deadlocked at providing fiscal stimulus for desperate
Americans while they eat gourmet dinners and sleep on satin sheets each
evening; the New Gilded Age.
Over 10 million Americans are out of work for months.
Another 10 million are gig workers. Cars line up for miles at food banks.
Evictions and bankruptcies will destroy many Americans in early 2021. The
airline, hospitality, hotel, restaurant, fitness and gym businesses are in
shambles. The US Jobless Claims are rising for three consecutive weeks and
counting. While Trump, Mnuchin, McConnell, Pelosi and Schumer mud wrestle each
other fighting for their own tribal agendas, they trample the huddled masses
below.
Too many cooks are stirring the same sour-tasting fiscal stimulus
brew. Politicians are playing games since they will not know who has power in
the Senate until the Georgia state runoff election on 1/5/21. Americans want
action now. Folks are desperate. They are having a hard time paying rent or a
mortgage. Some families cannot put food on the table after the government-imposed
shutdowns. Retail sales weaken as consumers run out of money. Americans become weary
of the rigged crony capitalism system.
People care about the pandemic instead of America’s garbage
tribal politics. Americans are worried about their lives, spouses, elderly
family members, their jobs and careers, and of course the kids. The pressure is
mounting, and people are snapping, as evidenced anecdotally by crazy aggressive
drivers and road rage incidents.
Sadly, suicides are rising. If you are experiencing these
dire straits and sad thoughts, seek out people to talk to; it’s the only way
through it. Avoid the prescription drugs if possible. If you do not know many
people, talk to a neighbor, someone in the grocery store, the mailman, anybody,
even just to say hello and enjoy a wink and a nod. Join a club or volunteer where you will interact and talk with people. There are also folks on the internet willing to provide an ear so never feel alone and realize there are many other people that have worked through the same types of feelings. Talking, vocalizing, even upheaving your
anguish and concerns will release the pain from your body and get you through those pits of despair; there is no
other way.
The public will face the realization that they are living
through the worst of the pandemic in January and February. On the bright side,
the vaccine news is the most positive development of the entire pandemic.
The Pfifzer/BioNTech vaccinations started Monday, 12/14/20,
a couple days ago, and are proceeding in an orderly fashion as planned.
However, a nor’easter (bad winter storm moving northeast up the East Coast) is
hitting New York, New Jersey, northern Pennsylvania and points north that may hamper
the vaccine deliveries for a day but it is no biggie. Any day, the FDA is
expected to provide the final-final blessing for the Moderna vaccine, for
emergency use, and those shots will begin any day.
The states are commenting that they are not receiving the proper
amount of vaccine doses. Secretary Azar says there are production problems at
the Pfizer plant. Pfizer immediately disputes the comment and says they have
vaccine ready to ship in the warehouse and it is the United States that told
them to hold off. Isn’t it something? All those months to prepare and the bozo
left hand does not know what the bozo right hand is doing. The latest story is
that the US government only shipped half now and the other half is on its way.
Why didn’t they tell the states? Many states probably spent twice the money on
freezer capacity that they do not need. This clown stuff does not create public
confidence in the handling of the pandemic, or the vaccines. Where’s Donnie?
Bueller? Donnie?
The Pfizer vaccine requires a -94 F (-70 C) freezer for cold
storage. F is the American Fahrenheit temperature system. C is the centigrade
system for Europe and elsewhere. The freezer compartment in your refrigerator
in the kitchen is 0 degrees F (-18 C). The Moderna vaccine requires -4 F (-20
C) cold storage temperature so the kitchen freezer can handle that; simply turn
the knob to the lowest setting. The Pfizer requires a higher tech freezer that
can produce colder temperatures. The Moderna vaccine can also remain fresh for
up to 30 days in the daily use compartment of the refrigerator. The Moderna
vaccine is easier to implement, however, time will tell if it creates more, or
less side effects, as compared to the Pfizer vaccine. Some doctors are
recommending that the elderly with comorbidities may want to hold off on taking
the vaccine for a little while.
Dry ice maintains the cold temperatures during shipping. Dry
ice is frozen carbon dioxide at a temperature of -109 F (-79 C). Do not ever
touch dry ice with your fingers since dangerous ice burns will occur. As the
dry ice cubes melt, carbon dioxide gas is emitted and is generally harmless
unless you are in an enclosed space. Thus, you need thoughtful people handling
this stuff not bozo’s.
10% of Americans may have had covid already, and a recent
study is suggesting up to 15%. Thus, 50% to 60% of Americans will need to be
vaccinated to achieve the 60% to 70% herd immunity goal next year and snuff out
the virus; and this is the bare bones estimate. The vaccination percentage must
actually be higher since some folks may not return for the second shot.
If 70% of the 330 million Americans receive the mRNA vaccine
(Pfizer or Moderna; the non-mRNA vaccines remain in development and are not
available), that is 231 million people. Since both vaccines require two doses,
that is a total of 462 million doses needed to achieve herd immunity in the
United States and this is based on all 231 million souls taking the two shots.
May as well call it 500 million doses.
It is an uphill battle ahead for the medical industry. Next
summer and Fall, the United States may be realizing that herd immunity remains
elusive. Next year will likely look a lot like this year; vaccines or no
vaccines. Typically, viruses run an 18-month to two-year time frame and then
flitter away so America is about half-way through this sick coronavirus
nightmare. The medical folks and Whitehouse task force said everyone in the US
would have access to a vaccine by April. Starting a couple weeks ago, the
doctors and scientists are saying May. Over
the last few days, the talking point is that vaccines should be available to
everyone by June-July.
Americans are also being told, carefully, that masks will
still be needed after they are vaccinated. Say what?! The doctors want everyone
to continue the mask-wearing, social distancing and hand washing guidelines
until everyone is vaccinated. How long will that take? Biden may be sorry he
won the election a year from now.
Complicating the vaccine rollout, are the conspiracy
theorists saying that RFID chips are planted inside the vaccines and will be
used to track and trace you with the new 5G network. You would think the
concern over the mRNA altering the DNA and your bloodline forward would be the
major worry but it is not. People’s eyes glaze over when RNA and DNA technology
is mentioned, but a chip in the vaccine is easy to understand.
Vaccines typically contain many nasties such as animal
proteins, aluminum, tracers and preservatives such as mercury, that doctors do
not want to discuss. Flu vaccines contain Thimerosal which is mercury and it is
amazing how the vast majority of people receiving flu shots do not know they
are injected with mercury each time. The doctors say no worries but it is best
to be informed so you can make your own decision. The mRNA is said to not alter
DNA based on a few limited animal studies.
Vaccines will prevent the patient from becoming ill with
coronavirus but it is unsure if a person can be infected and pass the virus on
asymptomatically. There is a lot of unknowns around the vaccine such as how
long will it last, how effective is it for the mass population, how will it
work on the mutations which there may be as many as 17 and counting, and will
the mRNA technology cause any long-term auto-immune disease problems? All these
questions remain unanswered.
Although the two mRNA vaccines made it into people’s arms by
the end of this year, enabling President Trump to brag and take credit, the
more standard-style vaccines could not meet that challenge. Russia’s Sputnik vaccine was the first; at
least that is what the murdering dirtbag Dictator Putin says. The efficacy of
the vaccine remains questionable. The AstraZeneca, J&J and Novavax vaccines
are in trials currently.
Adding to the upbeat vaccine narrative, the FDA approves the
first at-home test for COVID-19 that provides results quickly. It is
manufactured by Ellume, an Aussie company. The following day, the Abbott Binaxnow
Rapid test is approved for home use with a prescription. The tests cost $30 and
$25, respectively, which is cost-preventative for folks of modest means;
perhaps Congress can find a way to provide aid for poor folks that want to test
from home. Covid tests like this were needed months ago. Perhaps the huge
pandemic ocean liner is finally making the wide-sweeping turn to calmer, and
less sick, seas ahead.
The hydroxychloroquine rhetoric reappears after a few weeks
of calm with people talking past each other about the drug’s efficacy, again. The
common drug does help battle the virus if taken before the onset of covid or in
the early stages of the illness. Once a
patient becomes more seriously ill, however, hydroxychloroquine is of no use.
Many stereotypical republicans, that are anti-mask, tout the
use of hydroxychloroquine as a miracle cure. Conversely, many stereotypical democrats,
that are pro-mask, ridicule and internet-shame anyone that says the drug is
useful. Two sides talking past each other. Both sides are correct and both are
incorrect. The USA is a divided nation where Americans cannot simply shake
hands in the middle and both agree to what is true; hydroxychloroquine can help
in the early stages of coronavirus but not in the later stages. People have
lost their way blindly supporting heretic political tribes ahead of their
beloved country. When they finally see the light, it will probably be too late;
the class war will be well underway.
Ivermectin, a horse deworming drug, may be effective in
treating covid. The FDA is warning against the use of ivermectin for covid
although it is used to treat worms in humans. The FDA is coy in not saying
whether they are currently considering the drug as a covid treatment. Big
pharma wants you to spend big bucks on prescription drugs, that is why they got
all of you hooked on pills every day. Each office visit is ka-ching, ka-ching. Treatments
that cost pennies on the dollar are not welcomed by the crony capitalism club. A
very successful coronavirus treatment protocol is the MATH+ hospital treatment
protocol for COVID-19 which makes use of ivermectin.
Remember, with the advice of your physician, consider taking
a zinc tablet each day which has been shown to battle the virus. It is
absolutely disgraceful that doctors and scientists do not tell people during
all the television airtime to simply take zinc and vitamins A, C and D-3 daily
to keep their immune systems strong. It is that simple folks but all this will
only cost you a couple bucks.
The studies on mask use continue to produce mixed results,
both for and against, since there are too many variables to control. If
healthcare workers wear masks, that tells you they are useful, but to what
degree for the general public? Overweight and old folks have trouble breathing
so it is unfair to have them strap on a mouth diaper. The strain on their
hearts and lungs may be worse than worrying about covid.
Others walk around with their nose sticking out of the mask
so snot and boogers dribble down the front of the cloth. Few are washing masks
each day. Some p[people are using the same mask each day they used in April.
This is reality. People are constantly sneezing, coughing, itching and
fidgeting, wiping eyes, picking noses, picking whatever, adjusting glasses and
stroking hair. How efficient can masks be with these antics taking place?
Breathing your own carbon dioxide exhalation from a paper bag may be okay if
calming yourself during a panic attack, but breathing in carbon dioxide during
mask use is not the way the body is supposed to operate.
Some macho men want to show the world how tough they are so
they walk into stores mask-less. These liberty-believing folks stare down
anyone that dares suggest they wear a mask. Some are conmen looking for trouble
so they can pursue a lawsuit and receive some dough. In Congress, the key
sticking point for a fiscal stimulus deal on the republican side is insistence
that companies be afforded legal protection from covid lawsuits. On the other
side, the democrats want piles of cash, under the guise of covid, to bail out
states that were mismanaged for decades.
The coronavirus pandemic is simultaneously at a happy and
sad place. Happy that vaccines are available and the vaccination program is
underway which hints that the future will be wine and roses. Sad that the first
couple-few months of the year will be covid Hell. Uncle Sam may be on a
ventilator come Valentine’s Day. Can America survive the bridge to next summer?
If the virus escalates in the weeks ahead, which appears
likely, the draconian lockdown measures will likely increase killing the
economy. There will be numerous bankruptcies in 2021. Ditto evictions.
Unemployment is ending for many Americans. The picture is by no means bright
but the stock market is at all-time record highs. President-elect Biden is
charged with the task of forging a bridge from January to July without the
economy collapsing while hoping that the herd immunity scenario plays out as
planned. As they say in Brooklyn, “Good luck wit dat.”
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), spawned at the two bioweapons
biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected over 75 million people around the world
killing 1.67 million souls. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party), led by dirtbag
Dictator Xi, who has no respect for the sanctity and dignity of life, unleashes
bioterrorism upon the planet; even on their own Chinese people. 53 million
people have recovered worldwide (70%; 7 in 10 people in the world that were
infected with covid have recovered; this number increases by 1% over the last
week).
The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, has attacked and sickened over
17 million Americans (5.2% of the 330 million US population; this number jumps
+0.6% over the last week and was up +0.7% week-on-week last week; 1 in every 19
US citizens have been infected with COVID-19), the highest number of cases in
the world, murdering nearly 318K United States citizens. One American is dying
every 30 seconds from covid. US daily deaths exceed 2,250 for 14 of the last 16
days. The deadliest covid day in the US is 3,561 deaths on 12/16/20. Deaths
exceed 3K per day for 4 of the last 7 days; a 9-11 is occurring every day.
Where’s Donnie? Bueller? Donnie? Trump is spending a lot of time on the golf
course telling the driving range manager and ball boy that he won the election.
Over 10 million Americans have recovered from covid (58%;
this number is down -1% after moving up +1% a week ago; 3 out of every 5
Americans that were infected with covid have recovered). Take the good news
where you can get it.
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but
has one-fifth (23.2%; up +0.8% over the last week and up +1.4% over the couple
weeks before that so perhaps the trend, or rate of change, is softening) of the
coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19%) of the deaths.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 15 million followed by India (9.95 million a hair from the dreaded
10 club), Brazil (7.0), Russia (2.7), France (2.4), Turkey (1.9), Italy (1.9),
UK (1.7), Spain (1.8), Argentina (1.5), Colombia (1.4), Germany (1.4), Mexico
(1.3), Poland (1.16), Iran (1.13), Peru (988K), Ukraine (920K), South Africa (874K),
Netherlands (640), Indonesia(636K), Belgium (611K), Czechia (594K), Iraq (579K),
Chile (577K), and Romania (572K). Bangladesh is a hair away from joining the
500K club. The 25 nations above have over 500K total virus cases. 14 of the 25
countries have over 1 million total cases. Five nations are over 2 million
cases. This month, both the USA and India will have over 10 million total virus
cases the two worst coronavirus nations on earth. It is overwhelming. In the
future, China must pay dearly for its bioterrorism experiment.
Spain’s rate of infections is decreasing and it happily
slips three places on the list. Germany is now biting at Colombia’s heels.
Netherlands worsens by four slots. Indonesia leapfrogs Belgium. Czechia worsens
by two places. Turkey jumps from 800K
total cases to 1.9 million in the last 10 days perhaps that is a data issue,
otherwise, the country is going downhill fast. The latter is true since Turkey
reports 235 deaths yesterday the worst ever. Daily new cases are running at the
highest levels ever in Turkey for the last three weeks. Turkey jumps five slots
higher on the list.
11 of the countries in the list of 25 above are in Europe;
almost half. In America, 20 states have over 300K total coronavirus cases. The
US obviously fails at handling the pandemic and the virus will be at its worse
when Trump leaves office on 1/20/21. Coronavirus was Donnie’s Waterloo.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the
Keystone Model for short, uses the daily new cases to project when the active
cases chart will flatten and roll over which signals an end to the pandemic. A
couple words about charts. The daily new cases charts are the bar charts
typically shown on cable news television and in internet articles. The daily
new cases bar chart helps identify the virus waves and is used to project when
the peak in the active cases chart will occur.
The active cases chart is the most important chart since
this is the curve that needs to flatten and then roll over to the downside to
create the bell shape, hence the term, “flattening the curve.” The flattening
of the active cases curve represents the maximum strain on the healthcare
system subsiding and then the active cases curve dropping off on the right-hand
side, to form the bell shape, verifies that the virus is being defeated. Alas,
the US active cases chart above is a sick pup and explained below.
The daily deaths charts are presented in a bar chart format
like the daily new cases. The total deaths are represented as a cumulative
curve that continues higher representing the human tragedy that China has
stricken upon America. The cumulative death curve needs to flatten to show that
the dying has ended. The misery continues if the death curve continues higher
as it currently is in America and elsewhere.
The Keystone Model identifies the peak date in new daily
cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active cases bell curve will
then peak 1 to 4 weeks later, signaling that the pandemic is subsiding and
weakening, depending on how the virus situation is handled.
If the country, region, locality or state is well-prepared,
the active cases chart will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases
peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days typically
holds true for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments,
such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they
receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia,
Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as
the initial wave. Australia, however, is the only current shining example on
how to defeat the virus.
Japan is getting hit hard with a third wave now and may not
be able to weather this covid storm. Ditto South Korea that is held out as a blueprint
to follow but they just reported the highest number of daily new cases ever
with a third wave hitting hard. South Korea is not a blueprint. Time will tell
if they can control the pandemic in the 11-day window. Ireland also handled the
pandemic quickly early this year but is having difficulty now with the active
cases curve continuing higher.
If the country is not well-prepared, free, non-communist,
like the US and other Western nations, non-authoritarian, the active cases will
peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to
the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when
the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell
curve where the strain on the medical systems and personnel is at a peak). Citizens
in Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to
control a pandemic. Israel is of course a key part of the Free World but PM
Netanyahu’s authoritarian style aids the country in maintaining quick control
over the virus.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher
daily new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of
new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case
peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus
better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The
behavior of higher daily new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping
higher, signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all
nations and regions want their daily new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart
is important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple
weeks after the new cases increase (which makes January and February appear
ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under
doctor’s care with fatigue, shortness of breath, and other symptoms, after they
recover from the worst of the virus, which creates an ongoing demand on the
healthcare system.
Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other
medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted in the hospitalization
data but they remain a strain on the medical system. Some patients continue
therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this continues to require
medical staff and supplies. A couple of athletes that have recovered from covid
drop over on the sports field and basketball court. The lingering symptoms of
shortness of breath are causing doctors to suggest that athletes have heart
imaging performed to make sure all is normal.
The healthcare demands will remain robust for the next couple
years before this sick covid pandemic is in the rearview mirror. God Bless the
healthcare workers, nurses, doctors and first responders especially since they
are about to go from the frying pan into the fire over the next two months.
Americans are partying and trading covid kisses under the mistletoe currently.
Humans need loving. Some will become sick in January. Some will die. A big
spike in daily new cases will occur in early to mid-January.
The coronavirus pandemic is under control and defeated when
the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner.
The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the
US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases,
hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.
The US daily new cases bar chart is shown above with the
current peak in daily new cases at 250K (the numbers are fluctuating in
real-time from 248KK to 251K) on 12/16/20. The Friday data is typically the
record-setting data so watch the 12/18/20 data like a hawk. The 7-day moving
average line (which smooths the data out so a trend can be identified)
continues higher. The covid pain continues as long as the daily new cases keep
moving higher and remain above 230K daily cases.
The pink circles show the holiday party periods (Easter,
Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving and
Christmas/New Year’s) which lead to more new cases. The Christmas and New
Year’s holidays will lead to a spike in daily new cases into mid-January.
The US active cases curve above shows the United States is
in a third wave; it is an exponential wave (parabolic; vertical). The highest
number of new daily cases occurs on Wednesday, 12/16/20, at 250,173 cases. A
quarter-of-a-million Americans are becoming infected with covid daily. The US
breached the 200K level for the first time on 11/20/20 and is now at 250K new
cases per day. No wonder the active cases chart moves ever higher slapping the
healthcare workers in the face for many weeks to come.
The daily new case rate crossed 100K per day on 10/30/20. It
took about 8 months to go from zero to 100K cases and then it took only 21 days
to tag 200K, and then another 25 days to approach 250K cases per day. The US
went above 150K daily new cases on 11/12/20. The US daily new virus cases are above
145K per day for every single day for 36 days running!
At 250K positive tests per day, in one week that is 1.8
million new coronavirus infections; almost 2 million over the last week!
Dividing 330 million, the US population, by 1.8 yields an astounding
conclusion. 1 IN EVERY 183 AMERICANS BECAME INFECTED WITH COVID-19 OVER THE
LAST WEEK!!!
As per the Keystone Model, adding 28 days to the new case
peak date of 12/17/20 is 1/14/21. Sadly, the first chance that America has at
flattening the active cases curve will be in mid-January. That’s terrible. And
this outcome is only in play if the daily new cases do not exceed 230K (8%
below the peak at 247K) which is likely foolish thinking. If the daily new
cases continue higher remaining above 230K, the flattening of the active cases
curve will be pushed even further out into the new year.
The US active cases chart shows the current trajectory of
the virus with the blue dotted-line and the projected peak on 1/14/21. The red
dotted-line shows the projection forward factoring in all the drunken kisses
under the mistletoe and wild new year’s celebrations. A surge in daily new
cases will occur in January which will pump the active cases chart higher with
the earliest chance of flattening the curve in mid-February. Do not kill the
messenger. Keystone is often the bearer of somber news based on statistics. He
is not invited to many parties.
America blew it this year. Trump’s handling of the pandemic
is disastrous. The US needed the leadership to tell everyone to stick it out
for two more weeks back in late May and nix the Memorial Day celebrations and
the year would have been drastically different. We would be nowhere near this
mess going on currently. The US is in serious trouble right now and most people
are whistling past the graveyard.
Patterns repeat and a spike in cases will occur after the
holidays just like after Thanksgiving. January will be covid Hell. Ditto
February. Maybe March. The virus spreads when folks party at events, concerts,
bars and in small home settings but there are many other reasons. The Boston
business conference early in the year, the Sturgis motorcycle rally in August,
Whitehouse parties and events, Trump campaign rallies, and large protests and
riots in American cities are superspreader events. Perhaps the light bulb is
finally going off in people’s minds since lame-duck Secretary of State Pompeo
invited 1,000 guests to a party at the State Department but only a few dozen
attended. Pompeo cancelled his speech (likely to avoid embarrassment).
Interestingly, however, placing the superspreading activity
aside, the main way that covid is spreading currently is through asymptomatic
family contact. The asymptomatic nature of coronavirus makes it extremely
difficult to eradicate.
The US daily deaths bar chart is shown above. 3,561
Americans die from COVID-19 on 12/16/20 the most ever.
The US total coronavirus deaths chart is shown above with
the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections. The US covid
death count is at 318K dead on 12/17/20. The current projection by IHME is 562K
dead by 4/1/21. The worst case scenario is in red at 714K dead by 4/1/21 if the
mandates are eased. This exceeds the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic that took 675K
lives. The blue line is 540K dead by 4/1/21 if the vaccines are rolled out
quickly. The brown line is 505K dead by 4/1/21 if a universal mask mandate is implemented.
Anyway you slice it, it is tragic. The US will probably double the death count over
the next four months. The US is at over 300K dead now and may be near 600K dead
come May, or sooner.
The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating
covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus,
with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on
the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these
days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the death
rate will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher.
Germany’s daily new cases chart is shown above and the
Deutschland reports 29K new cases the most ever. Ditto Sweden’s chart that tops
8.8K daily new cases its worst ever. Sweden received a lot of attention early
on in the pandemic for approaching the virus with herd immunity in mind but it
was never a true test of the concept since most Swedes chose to mask-up and
socially distance anyway.
New York’s daily new cases chart is shown above. New York is
back in the covid firing line reporting over 11K daily new cases on par with
the worst two days of the pandemic in April. Good luck Cuomo. California’s
daily new cases chart is shown; another disaster. The Golden State reports 62K
daily new cases on 12/16/20. People are migrating out of California chased away
by high taxes and a spreading virus. Tennessee’s daily new cases chart is also
shown above with a record setting 11.4K cases. Obviously, the pandemic is
spiraling out of control. Trump is hiding in the closet of the Lincoln Bedroom
his orange face only lit by the glow of his smartphone as he tweets a message
that he won the election.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the
story forward. We are into the holiday season but many folks are joyless since
the US coronavirus active cases curve (above) is heading higher with no signs
of flattening. This tells you that more COVID-19 sickness, sadness and tragedy
is ahead and 2021 will begin on a down beat.
This is Article 28 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This twenty-eighth article is published on Thursday,
12/17/20. Only two weeks remain in this virus-stricken year but the worst of
the pandemic is yet to come in January.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it
occurs in real-time, from the beginning, experiencing the daily virus
zeitgeist, good or bad, devoid of political correctness. This is not
revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring
and recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing
$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive
Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising;
India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for
Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras,
Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are
in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12
published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana,
Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress
Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US
Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming
the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in
Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell
Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a
Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,
Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the
Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K
Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;
Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in
New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,
Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress
Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;
AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to
Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;
Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases
Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,
Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including
US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,
Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into
COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely
Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on
10/14/20.
The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States
Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active
Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says
Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas,
Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma,
Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,
Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to
Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,
Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading
Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;
US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10
Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23
published on 10/24/20.
The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds
118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe Under
Lockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US Presidential
Election Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins Reports
America Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows
Tests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K Highest
Ever; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President Trump
Refuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;
Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188K
on 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a
couple-few days.
The increase in daily new cases has to stop and level off,
hopefully decrease, before there is any hope that the medical systems and
personnel will receive relief about four weeks in the future. Realistically, US
healthcare services will likely have to be rationed going forward. Doctors may
be faced with difficult decisions about who lives, and who dies, in the weeks
ahead. Unfortunately, by the end of the year, everyone, not just the poor folks
and those of color, will know a family member, friend, relative, or guy down
the street, that has died from covid.
The following nations are success stories that have beaten-back
the latest virus waves. The active cases curves have flattened and rolled over
creating the bell shape verifying that the virus is defeated for these
countries; New Zealand, Australia, India, Peru, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi
Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar, Philippines (data is messy), Oman, Guatemala, China (the
bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus bioweapon), Venezuela, Singapore, El
Salvador (but trouble brewing for another wave), Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic
data), Iraq, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, Nepal, Argentina (keep an eye on it), Switzerland,
Austria, Armenia, Jordan, Morocco, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Romania and Iran.
Colombia falls from grace with daily cases spiking so it is
tossed into the troubled list below. Ditto South Africa that sees a big spike
in daily new cases. Nigeria took a turn for the worse and is kicked out of the nice
list above and sent to the naughty list below. Czechia is also back in the sick
covid soup.
Congrats to Portugal that rolled its active cases curve over
creating the bell shape so the virus is being defeated and folks will soon be
out eating grilled sardines and enjoying bull fights again. Congratulations is
also in order for Italy. The boot-shaped nation has rolled its active cases
chart over creating the bell curve and the Italians are on their way to
defeating the virus. The healthcare workers will notice an easier workload with
each passing day. Pasta parties may be in the not-too-distant future although
other neighboring nations are slip-sliding down an icy virus slope.
Poland is finally wrestling covid under control with its
active cases chart peaking and moving lower. Ditto Romania. In the Middle East,
Iran bends its active cases curve over so better times are ahead in the desert.
All the countries listed above are doing better at handling
the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may
or may not be reporting truthfully). The 41 worst global hotspots, that have
not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected
peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment
and systems), based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards
the bottom of the list are in the worst trouble currently.
Ireland (Second Wave-Third Wave
Likely Starting) (problematic data hampers analysis)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases are in October)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in late October early November but daily cases may be
starting to rise again which means potential trouble ahead and a third wave)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever; cases spike 12/16/20 keep an eye on it)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve continues higher)
11/28/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/27 and 11/21/28)
12/26/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 12/7/20)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve moves higher)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/6/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/7/20 New
Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
1/4/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest since July)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave on 11/29, 12/4 and 12/10/20)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/3, 12/9, 12/10 and 12/11/20)
12/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Kazakhstan (Second Wave)
12/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave over last 2 weeks)
1/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in December)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/15/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur over last 2 weeks)
12/26/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 7/29 and 12/16/20)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20
New Case Peak Date
12/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever during last couple weeks)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
12/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever at 250K!!!)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases except for August)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Lebanon
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases 11/5, 11/6, 11/18 and 12/16/20)
1/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date (bad
news; highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Netherlands collapses into the covid rabbit hole with daily
cases exploding higher. The data above is horrible. The 12/16/20 and 12/17/20 data
show big spikes in daily new cases for many countries and this spells nothing
but trouble when a week or two ago things appeared to be subsiding in regions
such as Europe. Things now have the potential to escalate out of control
everywhere and that will surely sink the global economy. From France, news
wires say President Macron tests positive for coronavirus.
Sweden reports the highest daily cases ever (see chart
above) unfortunately the Swedes are skiing into the covid-infected woods. The
King of Sweden criticizes the herd immunity strategy saying it has failed. King
Carl XVI Gustaf proclaims, “We have a large number of people that have died and
that is terrible.” In fairness, as mentioned above, Sweden never truly followed
the herd immunity concept since people voluntarily masked-up and socially
distanced. Coronavirus is simply a highly contagious virus that is difficult to
stop.
The UK reports the highest daily cases in a month. Germany
takes a turn for the worse reporting 29K daily new cases (see chart above) the
highest ever and over 25K Germans dead. Denmark cuts its economic outlook
blaming covid. Japan reports the highest daily new cases ever.
South Korea is not a blueprint for anything these days. It
handled the virus quickly during waves one and two but the wave three active
cases chart has gone parabolic and is spinning out of control on the Korean
Peninsula. South Korea reports 1,075 daily new cases the highest ever.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 42 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active
cases rise with new waves. At least this is better than 3 weeks ago when all 50
states were on the list below with new cases rising and the active cases curves
not flattening.
The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their
new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all of America is in the
same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs. An increase in new
cases leads to higher active cases and hospitalizations which then leads to
more deaths. As CDC Director Redfield said two weeks ago, the worst of the
pandemic is ahead in December, January and February. US hospitalizations are
over 114K.
The following eight states have rolled their active cases
curve over to form, or start forming, the bell shape and verify that the virus
is defeated, however, the data is sketchy; Minnesota, North Dakota, South
Dakota, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Iowa. Several states show peaks
in the active cases curves over the last few days (see list below) but a few
more days are needed to make sure the active cases curve is rolling over.
Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve continues higher)
11/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 12/9/20 give it a few more days)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 12/12/20)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 11/13 and 11/19/20)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 12/8/20)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 12/14/20)
12/1/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/29/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur in November and December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/1 and 12/3/20)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/14, 12/3 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/6/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/23, 12/8 and 12/10/20)
1/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/12/20)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/12/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/9 and 12/12/20)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/9 and 12/12/20)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is choppy and messy)
12/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/7, 12/4, 12/5 and 12/13/20)
1/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/11, 12/12 and 12/13/20)
1/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave 12/12 and 12/14/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/7 and 12/14/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/12 and 12/14/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/8 and 12/14/20)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/12 and 12/16/20)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 4/4, 4/15 and 12/17/20)
1/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Tennessee and Maine take a turn for the worse with daily new
cases spiking to the highest ever. Ditto Georgia with 7,777 daily new cases
today. Also, Arkansas, California (see chart above), Texas, New York (see chart
above) and West Virginia report the highest daily new cases ever over the last
two days. These are the worst hotspots in the United States. New York’s daily
new cases are at April record highs. There are no ICU beds available in Los
Angeles county, California; 1 in 50 are infected with covid within the county. Los Angeles County Health Services Director Ghaly exclaims, "Our hospitals are under siege!"
24 US states report the highest daily cases ever over the
last week! One-half the country! Hospitalizations are over 114K and moving
higher. Pennsylvania’s positivity test rate is a ridiculous 39% (2 out of every
5 tests are positive for coronavirus). Two Americans are dying every minute of
coronavirus. The virus is spreading out of control in Mexico and the southern
US states are reporting ICU beds at over capacity.
The pandemic is spiraling out of control and the United
States is leaderless with the orange man continuing to moan from the Lincoln
Bedroom that he lost the election. Get with it, Donnie. You are in office
another 33 days and the country is getting sucked down the covid rabbit hole.
It’s casino redux (Trump drove the East Coast casino’s he owned into bankruptcy
years ago due to incompetent management). Trump’s zest for the presidency has
evaporated and he appears more concerned about his future than America’s.
The states at the bottom of the list are the worst since
their daily new cases are spiking in real-time. New York is in serious trouble.
Governor Cuomo wrote a book bragging about how well he managed the pandemic
this year, ignoring the thousands of nursing home folks that perished due to
the bonehead decision-making, so maybe he can reference his book to plot a path
forward.
Georgia is at the center of US politics currently with two
senatorial runoff elections occurring on 1/5/21. The US Senate has 100 members,
two from each state. After the 11/3/20 election, the democrats occupy 48 seats
and the republicans (often called the GOP which stands for Grand Old Party which
is republicans and conservatives) occupy 50 seats. If the democrats win both
races, the senate will be 50-50 equally-divided so the tie-breaking vote for
all legislation is by the leader which is the vice president democrat Kamala
Harris. Thus, if the democrats win both seats, they can take over control of
the senate, they already have the House and presidency, so the full-on democrat
agenda would rule the roost for America going forward.
The races are a toss-up but Georgia is a red state
(republican), despite President Trump’s election loss there, and a betting man
would say the republicans take both seats. It would be a big win for democrats
to split and take one race since there are republican sympathizers in the
senate such as Mitt Romney that will sometimes side with the democrats. If the
democrats take both seats, it is a permanent game-changer in American politics.
This political theatre occurs with people protesting and
attending rallies, of course many mask-less and few social distancing, thus,
Georgia is at the bottom of the covid list and that will continue for another
three weeks. it would not be surprising to see Georgia as not so peachy and
instead perhaps the worst coronavirus state in the union come January. Georgia
is a sick Hell hole intersection of crony capitalism politics and the
coronavirus.
The data above is disturbing. The spikes in daily cases
verify that Thanksgiving was a superspreader event. Ditto after Halloween. Taking
Oklahoma as an example, big spikes in cases occur eight to 17 days after Turkey
Day; call it two weeks, and the experts have referenced this couple-week
incubation period after a holiday party weekend this year. It is confirmed by
the data. Thus, extrapolating this forward, and lumping Christmas and New
Year’s together since it a one-week party, a huge spike in daily new cases will
occur in the US between 1/9/21 and 1/18/21. That’s not good.
It is likely that the US will be going into covid panic mode
just as President-elect Biden is sworn into office. The US hospital system will
likely be collapsing. If you have a heart attack in January or February, you
had better be at peace with your Maker, since you may be seeing the Almighty in
quick order. Hospitals will be completely overrun and it will be difficult to
receive care. Doctors will have to ration care early in the new year. 'Rationing care' will become part of the daily lexicon come January and February. Did you ever think you would hear this in America? Where's Donnie? Bueller? Donnie?
As per the Keystone Model, the tragedy is that the active
cases curve, which tells you when the virus is defeated, will not even flatten,
let alone dropping off, until 28 days after the spike in daily cases due to the
holidays, which is in the mid-February period (red line in the US active cases
chart above). Wake up folks. The coronavirus pandemic in 2021 is going to look
a lot like 2020.
The medical community is becoming alarmed about the growing
trend of vaccine hesitancy. In this age of the internet and social media, there
are wild stories floating around about covid, vaccines, China, the CDC, WHO, NIH, Pfizer, RFID chips, virus treatments, all kinds of topics and talk. Over the last couple weeks, the scientific talking
heads are referencing the ’25 years of mRNA development’ as a key talking point
to boost public confidence in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (they want the public to view the mRNA vaccines as a multi-decade culmination in technology not a new technology that was hobbled together over the last few weeks and months; which do you think it is?).
Politicians and doctors are receiving shots live on
television to boost public confidence. In this age of phoniness, however, they
could simply be receiving a harmless saline injection while they tell the
guinea pigs to step forward. The Lone Ranger is telling Tonto, his person of
color sidekick, that “we must take the vaccine.” Tonto looks at the Lone Ranger
and says, “What’s this ‘we’ stuff, Kemosabe?”
The vaccine stuff may not end well. The AstraZeneca, Novavax
and J&J vaccines are non-mRNA and it is important they come to market since
many folks avoiding the new mRNA technology may be more agreeable to taking the
other vaccines. As a few weeks pass, everyone will note any side effects on the
folks vaccinated, and this will likely build confidence in taking the vaccine.
A poll this week has bummed-out many medical professionals.
It reports that one-third of healthcare workers will get the vaccine, one-third
will not and another one-third are thinking about it. If you cannot get 70%
plus of the healthcare workers to enthusiastically roll up their sleeves, good
luck with the public. The vaccine makers are throwing a big party but no one
may come. Instead, people may want to par-tay with the good band that is
playing at the mask-less gala where social distancing is shunned. 2021 is going
to look a lot like 2020; perhaps worse.
Two healthcare workers in Alaska were stuck and both had bad
reactions to the Pfizer vaccine 10 minutes after the shot. The workers, now
patients, are shot with adrenaline to bring them back. Two people in the UK had a
similar reaction. With two occurring in Alaska, it may be a batch, or perhaps
storage and handling, problem. These occurrences need to be small in number if
the public is going to build trust in vaccines, and so far they are.
Healthcare workers are at the breaking point and they have not seen the worst as yet. The medical professionals and first responders are contracting covid but equally important is the stress-related sicknesses occurring. Healthcare workers are exhausted and burned-out after 10 months and there is no end in sight, in fact, as explained with the charts above, it is going to become far worse.
Retired nurses are coming back into service. Older nurses that have been performing desk duties in recent years are pressed back into hands-on patient services. The US does not have enough ICU doctors and nurses to handle the January and February projected coronavirus work load. Ambulances are already backed up at several hospitals around the nation where it is taking a few hours to admit patients. Rationed care will be a given in early 2021.
Soon, all of America will feel the covid wrath. The
entire United States is a hot spot; there is no other way to describe it. The ‘highest
new cases ever’ notations for each state above are jaw-dropping and proof
positive that the Trump administration blew the handling of the pandemic
bigtime. The Whiner-in-Chief put all his eggs in the vaccine basket and walked
away from handling the pandemic on a daily basis. It is clearly a flawed
strategy and yielding disastrous results to begin the new year.
On the economic front, the battle over fiscal stimulus continues and both sides say a deal is coming. So is Christmas. The politicians should think of stimulus as disaster relief. Upper middle-class America and the wealthy elite are completely out of touch with how the huddled masses live and work each day in America, or, for millions this year, don’t work.
Major US stock indexes are at all-time record highs pumped
higher on vaccine happy hype and on hopes of a fiscal stimulus bill. There are
millions of people out of work. The restaurant industry is being treated like
lepers in ancient times. People cannot pay rent. Food lines are miles long. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is the index most-watched by the public
(the S&P 500 Index is the US stock market), tops 30,000 for the first time
in industry and the S&P 500 tops 3.7K. Congress may play games with the
stimulus bill until the Georgia 1/5/21 election. That would be shameful. The US
already has the presidency absent from doing his job and now Congress may want
to hide until the new year. It is sickening and the huddled masses will not
forget. Payback over the coming years is going to be a bitch (rich versus poor
class war).
Coronavirus preferentially kills obese people and those with
diabetes, hypertension and high blood pressure. Age is also a factor since
anyone under 69 years old that is healthy should beat the disease but anyone
over 70 has one foot in the casket.
Avoiding people is the key. Shop once per week. Limit your
interaction with the public. If you are not a list-maker, now is the time to
begin. Write down the items you need or errands to perform and do it all in one
day, if possible, using plenty of hand sanitizer. Remember to keep your immune
system at the maximum strength possible by taking zinc, vitamins A, C and D-3,
and turmeric, each day. Check with doc but this regimen will maintain your body
at maximum strength. Walmart and other stores are already out of zinc like the
springtime.
Cities and states are ordering body bags and refrigerated trailers. Do you understand what is coming in the new year folks? It is not wine and roses.
Note Added Friday Morning, 12/18/20: In a dog and pony show
to instill public confidence, Vice President Pence receives the Pfizer vaccine.
The shot is comical since the syringe only appeared to have the tiniest bit of
vaccine. It was probably just a saline injection. Saline is mixed with the
vaccine for the actual shot so there is no way to tell what is in the syringe.
But taken on face value, Pence is doing his part to try to bolster public
confidence so good on him. Trump says he is not going to take the vaccine right
now citing his doctors just like he cites his lawyers. Donnie says he had the
virus so he may hold off on the vaccine for a while. For a guy that put all his
eggs in the vaccine basket, it is a strange twist to not see him roll up his
sleeve first. Trump is not taking the vaccine since he want to maintain his
base of support, an ongoing cash cow, and some of them are anti-vaccine folks. Trump
could have attended the event for moral support and to bolster public
confidence but he chooses not to; that’s Our Donnie. The adolescent antics are
getting way old. Sore loser Trump has been crying, whining and moaning about
the election for six weeks; not a good look for a grown man. President-elect
Biden is scheduled to receive the vaccine next week. Ditto Dr Fauci.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 12/18/20: Congress may not be
able to strike a deal for covid relief or to avoid a government shutdown at
midnight. The incompetent boobs point fingers at each other, protecting their
tribes, while they spit on the huddled masses. Medical professionals are
worried about the public losing confidence in the vaccines. Politicians better
worry about the public losing confidence in the country. The stock market
remains at record highs. The drug makers are slapped back from their big gains
this year as traders sell the news. PFE (Pfizer) loses 8% this week. BNTX
(BioNTech) drops -18% this week. MRNA (Moderna) pukes -11% this week. Ford and General
Motors say they will not mandate vaccinations for workers. Democrat House
Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader McConnell both receive their first dose
of the Pfizer vaccine. Interior Secretary Bernhardt tests positive for
coronavirus and, since he visited there, the Washington Monument is closed for
the next three days.
Note Added Friday Evening, 12/18/20: Another Alaskan has an adverse reaction to the Pfizer vaccine and is treated at the hospital. This is the third person in Alaska and two in the UK. So far, Pfizer has to be happy with the results. About 20K Americans have been injected with the vaccine (including the drug trials) and a handful or less of adverse reactions is a good statistic. In the UK, 140K people have received their first Pfizer shot, and only two had an adverse reaction and they were EpiPen users (had a predisposition for a reaction). So far, the vaccine is tolerated well although the jury remains out concerning the long-term impact. Moderna receives FDA approval. The CDC will provide guidelines on the distribution. Fauci says people may be receiving the Moderna vaccine on Monday and Tuesday. The Moderna vaccine has the advantage of not requiring as cold a storage temperature. The confusion around the Pfizer vaccine shipping and logistics continues. States are now told that they will not receive the allotments of vaccine they were promised. Pfizer says the vaccines are ready to go in the warehouse but they have not received any shipping instructions. The government had months to plan the vaccine distribution logistics and they could not get the job done. Where's Donnie? Bueller? He's telling a secret service agent that he won the election.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 12/19/20: Yesterday's data brings new tragedy. 254,686 Americans are diagnosed with coronavirus on 12/18/20 the highest ever. The US active cases curve, that blue line shown above in the chart, continues higher and higher with no leveling-off whatsoever. 2,794 US citizens die of covid yesterday. It was 3,400 the day before and 3,561 the day before that the deadliest day of the pandemic thus far. 21 US states have over 300K total coronavirus cases almost one-half the country. Trump remains MIA continuing to sulk like a school boy about the election loss on Twitter. Trump does not acknowledge or talk about the pandemic. Is that his plan for the last 32 days in office? The CDC suggests patients 16 years old and above receive the Moderna vaccine versus 18 and above for the Pfizer vaccine. Drug trials on children started 12/9/20 with results expected early in the new year. There are 28 days between the two shots for the Moderna vaccine versus a 21 day span for the Pfizer vaccine.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 12/19/20: Congress is working all weekend on the fiscal stimulus deal. The country is dysfunctional with a bleary-eyed king barricaded in the Lincoln Bedroom refusing to come out or even comment on the escalating pandemic. Americans are desperate for jobs and money. They have to work no matter what the health guidelines say so the spread of the virus continues. The government shut down people's businesses and they had to send workers home but will not provide aid to the people; isn't America great? Health officials in Los Angeles, California, are in panic mode. There are no ICU beds available and hospitals are at capacity. Los Angeles is a pandemic epicenter much like New York was in the springtime. Mexico remains a covid hotbed like the US. Mexico City imposes strict new lockdown measures. The UK identifies a coronavirus variant that may spread faster and could become the predominant strain. It is unknown, however, if it is less, or more deadly. UK PM Johnson calls an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the strain. India joins the United States in the tragic 10 million total cases club; a club no one wants to belong. Drug chains Walgreens and CVS are helping the states shoot the vaccines into arms. US hospitalizations will tag 115K today the seventh record-setting day in a row.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 12/19/20: US General Gustave Perna blew it. He only had over one-half a year to prepare the logistics plan to distribute the vaccines; and he blew it. The confusion over the number of Pfizer vaccines supplied to states is clarified. Perna and the gang told the states how many doses to expect but now say they overestimated what would be available which accounts for the shortages. Everywhere you look in America these days there is incompetence. The excuse still seems flimsy. Pfizer says it has vaccine stacked up in the warehouse; get the stuff shipped to the states idiot! Chop chop. All they need is a shipping label. The boneheaded mistakes and confusion each day around the virus continues. What a mess. This behavior does not instill confidence in the public that is expected to step up and receive shots. Europe is facing its own vaccine hesitancy problem with the public even a bit more so than the US. In Hungary and Poland, 40% (2 of every 5 people) say they will not take the vaccine. Two more Alaskans experience an adverse reaction to the Pfizer vaccine; they may want to check that batch. Five people in Alaska have experienced a negative reaction. Scientists surmise that the polyethylene glycol (PEG) chemical present in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may be the culprit. A Chicago hospital is pausing the Pfizer shots after four people experience elevated heart rates and tingling sensations. A nurse receiving the vaccine in Tennessee faints after the shot. Later, a story is fed to the press that she has a condition that causes her to faint when she feels pain. That's a new one. The public are going to become leery about getting the vaccination. As the articles have explained, the US may be in the July and August time frame next year and unable to create herd immunity (if not enough of the public is willing to take the vaccine). Then, the country may dictate mandatory vaccines which would explode in social unrest. The quiet way to do it is to have employers require employees to be vaccinated as a condition of employment and voila, the EEOC has released a statement that such actions would not violate the Americans With disabilities Act of 1990. The US government is paving the way for this potential mandatory vaccination outcome next year. It's 1984, A Brave New World and Animal Farm all rolled up into one.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 12/20/20: Congress has supposedly agreed on a fiscal stimulus bill that will be voted on today. It is sickening watching the sausage being made. Two corrupt political parties trying to out-screw each other only seeking to further their own self-interests rather than doing what is best for America. There will be payback against the wealthy class in the coming months and years. UK PM Johnson takes on the Grinch role this Christmas pushing 20 million Brits into a Tier 4 lockdown (the most draconian measures). Christmas is cancelled in the UK as the government nixes family get-togethers. In the future, China must pay dearly for unleashing the coronavirus bioweapon on the world. The United States crosses 18 million total covid cases with over 323K Americans dead. It is astounding. Over 270K Americans are given the Pfizer vaccine. That's impressive. The FDA and others continue pointing fingers at each other about the mix-up in the amounts of doses given to states versus what they were told they would receive. Things appear on track so they should ditch the squabbling and keep their eyes on the ball. There are nine adverse reactions which is nothing when nearly 300K people have been vaccinated.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 12/20/20: Congress agrees to a $900 billion stimulus bill but the final voting will not take place until tomorrow. US stock index futures are flat to slightly positive so the stimulus bill may be settign up as a sell the news event for stocks. 500K Americans receive the Pfizer vaccine. That's impressive. Worries increase over the new UK virus strain. European nations stop travel to and from the UK. Then Russia halts travel with UK. Ditto Canada. Ditto Turkey. UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock proclaims, "The new mutation is out of control."
Note Added Monday Morning, 12/20/20, at 4:00 AM EST: European travel stocks are whacked from -4% to -9% lower. Europe and the UK are panicking and in emergency mode currently. The French shut down the Eurotunnel (Chunnel)! This is a big deal! The new strain has everyone on edge. Christmas has taken a back seat. US stock futures are sliding down the rabbit hole broadly down about -1.2%. S&P futures are down -40 points and the Dow is off -300 points. Amazon's New Jersey warehouse is closed for a few days after an employee tests positive for the virus. Sydney, Australia, tightens restrictions on residents as a spike in local cases occurs. Australia is one of the few nations that have a handle on the virus. The daily new cases are only four dozen people nowhere near the wave one and wave two cases but they are smart and trying to nip it in the bud which is key with the highly contagious coronavirus.
Note Added Monday Morning, 12/21/20, at 5:00 AM EST: European stock indexes are tanking. A recession across Europe becomes more likely which would likely drag the entire globe in the same direction. European medical authorities are providing approvals for the Pfizer vaccine which may be shot in arms within a week. DAX (Germany) collapses -2.7%. CAC (France) -2.8%. FTSE (UK) -1.9%. MIB (Italy) -2.5%. S&P futures drop -57 points, -1.5%. Dow futures lose -380 points, -1.3%. Nasdaq futures are down -125 points, -1.0%. Russell small cap futures are down -39 points, collapsing -2.0%. The euro is weakening and the US dollar strengthening. A flight to safety is occurring. US 10-year yield 0.89%. The VIX pops up through 28 (fear increases in the stock market). The Nasdaq exchange is investigating connectivity problems with the computer systems. Houston, we have a problem. There's a wild day ahead on Wall Street. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Donnie? Trump files another Supreme Court case claiming problems with the Pennsylvania election. No one is paying attention. Folks are focused on the pandemic that is spinning out of control, the vaccinations and now the deteriorating markets that flash yellow and red. Yesterday is a tragic day in the UK that reports 35,928 daily new cases; 36K infected people identified in one day the highest ever. UK PM Johnson has his hands full imposing the strict Tier 4 lockdown measures.
Note Added Monday Morning, 12/21/20, at 5:35 AM EST: S&P futures tank -81 points, -2.2%. Dow futures plummet -540 points, -1.8%. Nasdaq futures lose -185 points, -1.5%. Russell futures are down -62 points mini-crashing -3.1%. The VIX jumps above 30 as fear increases. Germany's DAX crashes -4%. CAC -3.6%. FTSE -3%. Euro Stoxx 600 Index crashes -3.3%. Is the new UK virus strain the butterfly that is flapping its wings a la chaos theory?
Note Added Monday Morning, 12/21/20, at 6:00 AM EST: S&P futures tank -97 points, -2.5%. Dow futures plummet an ominous -666 points, -2.2%. Nasdaq futures lose -207 points, -1.7%. Russell futures are mini-crashing -80 points, -4.0%. The VIX pops to the 31.13 palindrome. 10-year yield 0.88%. US dollar 90.90. Euro 1.216. Gold 1875. Silver 26.00. Oil crashes -6%. Copper -2.1%. Markets are bleak despite the stimulus bill. Dr Birx, that told everyone to remain only with their immediate family household on Thanksgiving, joined her relatives at a vacation property in Delaware. America is in a New Gilded Age where the upper middle class and elite wealthy live by a different set of rules than the stupid huddled masses. The examples of 'do as I say not as I do' by politicians, doctors and public officials only serves to rot away the public's trust. Birx provided an excuse that the house was being winterized but now says she is the caregiver for the family. Why can't people admit that they are simply telling you to do things they do not plan to do?
Note Added Monday Evening, 12/21/20: US stocks sell off but end the session flat. Investors and traders remain euphorically bullish on the stock market. The UK virus mutation receives worldwide attention. New York Governor Cuomo is concerned about the variant entering the US via his state. Scientists say the mutation may already be in the US and of course the media is quick to whip things into a frenzy of fear. The sensationalism attracts eyeballs which attracts advertising money. President-elect Biden receives the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Sleepy Joe gives credit to King Donnie for Operation Warp Speed. The Moderna vaccinations begin today. Trump continues sulking and whining in the Whitehouse strategizing on how he could overturn the election. Bazaar times. The president ignores the pandemic. Congress passes the stimulus bill but it will only limp the country into March. Biden says the bill is a "down payment." Wall Street loves that talk since more easy money from the government, and from the Federal Reserve, pumps the stock market higher. The privileged class owns large stock portfolios.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/22/20: The world crosses 1.7 million deaths from coronavirus. China's bioweapon, experiment-gone-bad, intentional or unintentional release, or whatever you want to call it, of the coronavirus from the Wuhan laboratories, is a crime against humanity. China (the dirtbag CCP) murders over 1.7 million global citizens during 2020. They are not going to get away with that but the world has to recover first. WHO says the coronavirus is not mutating as fast as regular seasonal influenza and the current vaccines in use and under development are able to handle all the current mutations identified. Dr Slaoui repeats this message saying the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be effective against the UK's variant strain. Mexico remains a hotbed of covid infections with daily new cases elevated sending its active cases curve higher and higher. This outbreak impacts the southern US states bordering Mexico with many hospitals at capacity. Japan's active cases curve has gone parabolic after reporting ongoing daily new cases at or near 3K per day for the last week. Tragically, there were more suicides in Japan last month than over the last year. Japan reports 2,900 total deaths from covid this year a miniscule amount compared to the USA but the island nation is in a big fight with the current wave three outbreak. US total coronavirus cases are almost 18.5 million with nearly 327K dead. 10.8 million Americans have recovered. California's active cases curve has gone parabolic after reporting 62K daily new cases on 12/16/20 the highest ever. New York's active cases chart has gone parabolic after reporting 13K daily new cases on 12/18/20 the highest ever. The near-term picture into early 2021 continues looking bleak. America is trying to bridge the gap from now until summer time when the vaccinations should finally help tamp down the virus. A few months can be an eternity.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 12/22/20: NIH Director Collins, a positive chap, receives the vaccine and tells people to think of it like a tetanus shot. The doctors are trying hard to alleviate public fears and mistrust with the vaccines. Herd immunity by next summer and Fall will be a pipe dream if Americans are unwilling to roll up their sleeves. The public will likely come around to receiving the shot as long as they do not see wide-scale adverse reactions over the coming weeks. Dr Fauci receives the Moderna vaccine. His protégé, Dr Birx, known for her colorful scarves, announces her retirement as the Trump administration comes to an end. Previously, she was open to staying on with the Biden administration. The Thanksgiving weekend escapades partying with relatives while telling everyone else to stay home creates Twitter and Facebook shame. In this age of social internet shaming, some people fold like a cheap scarf. Officials must practice what they preach, otherwise, with all the cameras and smartphones everywhere nowadays, they will be busted. House Speaker Pelosi was getting her hair done a few weeks ago after shutting down salons. California Governor Newsom closes restaurants as he dines on fancy French cuisine with his nose in the air. Leadership is telling the people you lead that you would never ask them to do anything that you are not willing to do yourself; this is how you gain respect and trust and then people will choose to follow you. Children used to be taught this type of thing a few decades ago. Taiwan reports a coronavirus infection the first positive case since April for the island nation. The dirtbag communists on China's mainland will invade Taiwan some day forward; will the CCP play dirty tricks and purposely infect Taiwan? The Wuhan bioweapon laboratories may have been developing the virus to handle the Hong Kong social unrest. The dissention was permanently crushed and Hong Kong is just another communist city now. The US must decide in the future if it will defend Taiwan; and America will. The Taiwanese are fantastic people. President-elect Biden speaks telling Americans that "experts think it (coronavirus) could get worse before it gets better." Sleepy Joe tells citizens to remain vigilant and says the "vaccines likely won't stop the deaths of tens of thousands of people in the months to come." West Virginia is on target to vaccinate all the nursing home residents in the state by the end of the year. France and England are rectifying the closed border situation by implementing virus testing protocols. There are about 40 nations limiting travel to and from the UK due to the new virus strain. The UK becomes the leper of the world. Scientists and doctors in Germany, and the USA, including Fauci, and Surgeon General Adams, say it is likely that new strain is already in their nations but the vaccines should remain effective. The new virus strain was first identified in September.
Note Added Wednesday, 12/23/20: The fiscal stimulus bill hits a snag. President Trump steps out of his hiding place in the Lincoln Bedroom, and says he wants a $2,000 payment to Americans not the $600 in the bill. This would total $4,000 for a couple. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is representing the president so the rug is pulled out from under that stoolie. Trump chose not to involve himself in the talks but now wants attention. The president is in line with the democrats instead of his own party; Pelosi is agreeable to $2,000 payments. Donnie is the best at creating theatrics and drama. He wants to go out as someone that wanted to provide more money to Americans; this stance will help him in his future Hollywood, radio or network ambitions. However, Americas will become angry if the bill is not approved quickly. Trump will probably sign the bill saying he wants to help people so there is no choice but he will also be able to say he wanted to give more money to people which will maintain his popularity; everything is a calculated game. In crony America, the politicians always pursue their own, sometimes tribal, interests, ahead of what is good for the huddled masses and nation as a whole. Surprisingly, Russia worsens with daily new cases remaining elevated and the active cases curving spiking higher. Dictator Putin has his hands full. Where's your Sputnik vaccine, dude? It was likely just another Russian lie. Russia reports over 600 covid deaths on 12/11/20 and 12/18/20 the two deadliest days ever and there is no end in sight. America crosses 330K coronavirus deaths. 3,376 Americans die from covid yesterday a spike higher after a few days of moderation. That is a lot of people. Where's Trump? Bueller? Donnie? He is injecting himself into the stimulus talks after they were finished, pardoning folks that helped him over the last few years, and continuing to ignore the pandemic. Trump will not say if or when he will be vaccinated. The president's Johnny-come-lately request for stimulus bill changes should tank futures but the stock market remains at euphoric record highs and wants to go higher. Traders and investors are drunk as skunks off Federal Reserve wine and vaccine champagne.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 12/23/20: The CDC is suggesting that everyone 74 years and older and front-line workers receive the vaccine first, which makes sense. Several states are breaking from the guidelines, however. The pandemic is a mess continually in chaos and confusion due to lack of leadership. Texas and Florida are states wanting to do their own thing and instead vaccinate the older population ahead of a 'kid in his 20's that is a medic'. States need to realize that with the pandemic spiraling out of control currently and about to get far worse in January, the big concern is the hospitals and their staffing. Healthcare workers are already at the breaking point and will be faced with the toughest challenges yet over the next two months. It is an ugly picture ahead. By vaccinating the medics and healthcare workers you can keep them on the job as things get out of hand. If states do their own thing and vaccinate the elderly instead, once the healthcare workers become sick, there will be trouble. There are no easy answers; everyone is flying by the seat of their pants. It is a novel, or new, virus. The major problem is the complete lack of leadership on the federal level (Trump). A pandemic is the one thing that the federal government should handle and organize and yet Trump remains disinterested in covid; and he had it!
Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/24/20: Christmas Eve. Medical professionals are pulling their hair out as Americans ignore covid guidelines and choose to travel and visit relatives and family during the Christmas and New Year's holidays. The foot traffic through airports is the most since the coronavirus pandemic began. It all but guarantees a future spike in daily new cases in the 1/11/21 through 1/31/21 time frame. This dire news will force the active cases curve higher and not create a potential flattening and rolling over of the curve until mid-February. January and February are going to be ugly and the hospitals will be in chaos. The pandemic will be at its worst when Trump leaves office. Donnie failed bigtime. Over 1 million Americans are vaccinated with the first shot which is a great milestone but there are already 9 million doses shipped. The Whitehouse promised that 20 million people would be vaccinated by the end of the year so they have one week to stick another 19 million. Even if they miss the goal, the president deserves credit for the mRNA vaccine accomplishment although the more conventional vaccines were not developed by the end of the year. Much of America remains in an anti-vaccine frame of mind but many will choose to receive the non-mRNA vaccines so it is important that they are available quickly. Whitehouse Task Force Dr Slaoui voices disappointment that the rollout of the vaccine did not occur faster. Slaoui says, "Exactly how fast the ramp-up of immunizations, shots in arms, is slower than we thought it would be." He says they are helping the states accelerate their efforts and he downplays the 20 million vaccination goal by the end of the year opining that it is "unlikely to be met." Army General Perna says they are doing a good job on distributing the vaccine and learning each day. Another new virus strain is discovered in South Africa and is detected in the UK. Oh dear Lord. Yesterday, the UK reports 39,237 daily new cases the highest ever and 744 deaths the highest of the second wave and not seen since April. The UK is in a bad spot and the controversial Brexit deal (exiting the European Union (EU) for the last four years) is ongoing at the same time. Biden-Harris adviser Michael Osterholm, that often espouses dire outcomes ahead for the pandemic, says the vaccines should be able to handle the variants so that is good news. However, Osterholm worries about the hospitalizations which will expand greatly in January; the hospitals will be under siege and the healthcare workers are exhausted and burned-out. On CNBC, Kaiser Permanente's Dr Stephen Parodi pleads with Americans to change their behavior and not travel or congregate at parties during Christmas and New Year's. He says this behavior will lead to a wave of cases in January and "hospitals will be beyond the breaking point, that's what we're really facing." California crosses above 2 million total coronavirus cases, the first state to cross this horrible milestone, with the hospitals busting at the seams. Over 119K Americans are hospitalized another record. Moderna is confident that its vaccine will provide broad protection against all variants including the UK variant. Russia and Mexico remain covid hotbeds. Dirtbag Dictator Putin is clamping down on the media and press even more forcefully than normal to hide the coronavirus pandemic tragedy sweeping the nation. Yesterday, Mexico reports 12,511 daily new cases the highest ever! China has unleashed horror upon the world; a crime against humanity of epic proportions.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 12/24/20: Christmas Eve. China's Siniovac Biotech CoronaVac vaccine results should be released soon. Officials hint at a 50% or more efficacy nowhere near the US's mRNA vaccines but suitable for emergency use. CoronaVac is under testing in several nations such as Brazil and there are games being played with the data. You cannot trust anything that the filthy Chinese communists are involved in. President Trump has placed the fiscal stimulus bill in limbo and is golfing. Americans will not forget the Washington, DC, dysfunction and payback will be severe during the approaching class war. Millions of Americans are the 'have-not's' that are short on food, cannot pay the rent or mortgage, and cannot find a job. They watch the elite privileged class, the 'have's', that dine on fine cuisine each evening and sleep on satin sheets, decide their futures. The New Gilded Age is upon us a la the 1920's.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/24/20: Christmas Eve. Fauci turns 80 years old and DC Mayor Bowser proclaims today as 'Dr Anthony S Fauci Day'. The medical community remains concerned about lack of participation in the vaccination program. This will not be an issue in these early days of vaccinations but may raise its ugly head in the February through May time frame. If not enough Americans become vaccinated, the herd immunity level will not be attained and life will not return to normal. Let's say about 15% of Americans have had coronavirus either officially or unofficially at home fighting the disease on their own, and recovering. 75% to 90% of the population needs to either be vaccinated or have had covid to create herd immunity. Thus, 60% to 75% of the population needs vaccinated and this is if everyone joyfully agrees to roll-up their sleeves and take the shot. But humans do not do that. Some will not return for the second shot. Other situations will arise where people will drop out of the vaccination program; let's call that 10%. Thus, to achieve the 60% to 75% vaccination goal, America needs to actually vaccinate 70% to 85% of the population. Fauci says 70% to 85% of Americans need vaccinated to achieve herd immunity next year which jives with the above numbers. Fauci originally said 60% to 70% of Americans needed vaccinated but has ratcheted-up this estimate over the last couple months. There are 330 million Americans so between 230 and 280 million (70% to 85%, respectively) Americans need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity and for society to return to normalcy. 1 million have been vaccinated so far and the Whitehouse is admitting that the 20 million goal by the end of the year will likely be missed. Fear not America since any journey, no matter how far, always begins with one step, and that is already behind us. The main problem with the entire pandemic mess in 2020 is the complete lack of leadership. Competent leadership in America these days is as rare as hen's teeth. Donald Trump's America is a 3-mile long line of cars at the food bank while he golfs and tweets, ignoring the virus. More Americans slip into poverty each day. Russia reports 30K daily new cases today the worst day ever. 635 Ruskies perish from covid yesterday the deadliest day ever. Russia is a covid Hell hole. Mexico reports 12.5K daily new cases for two of the last three days the worst ever. Russia and Mexico are the two most underreported coronavirus tragedies occurring around the world. The virus will be difficult to tamp down in the southern states bordering Mexico (California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas) but as is the case all year long, the pandemic has no leadership, and states are bumbling around trying to do the best they can putting out covid brush fires everyday.
Note Added Friday Morning, 12/25/20: Christmas Day. Pope Francis offers a virtual mass and asks nations to distribute the vaccines equally among all people especially the needy. The US now requires travelers from the UK to present a negative test before departure. The new UK virus strain shows up in northern Ireland. President Trump continues to hold the fiscal stimulus bill hostage. Republicans are not happy since they thought Mnuchin represented the president but in reality Trump may veto his own bill. Millions of Americans are trying to enjoy a bleak Christmas under the covid shadow as Trump golfs and Pence, who heads the Whitehouse virus task force, skis in Colorado. Trump's obstinance delays $9 billion in vaccine funding. It's nice to want to vaccinate everyone but somebody has to pay the bill. Over 120K Americans are hospitalized with new records occurring daily. Deaths are rising in 18 states. IHME predicts 567K Americans dead by 4/1/20 although 40K can be saved if everyone increased mask use. A January surge in virus cases appears inevitable due to the holiday traveling. Despite medical officials telling folks to stay home, few are listening. 1.2 million Americans moved through airports two days ago a pandemic record. 1 million people are traveling through US airports each day since last weekend. If you drive along suburban neighborhood streets, there are many cars parked. These are obviously visitors and house guests that are partying on the holiday. The Christmas rush is on with people throwing caution to the wind rushing inside grocery stores for last minute food items. The obese Americans are standing elbow to elbow in check-out lines, cradling hams and turkeys in their arms like they were newborns, masks are sitting below noses, the clerk wipes her nose with an open palm. Healthcare workers finish another exhausting day, heading home to pass out for a while, but along the way they witness mask-less people partying, drinking, having fun and ignoring social distancing guidelines. The pandemic creates different perceptions by different people depending on your situation. The typical human does not worry about things until their butt is in the sling. Once sick, they drop to their knees, even non-believers, and start praying to the Almighty. Always remember, there are no atheist's in foxholes.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 12/26/20: People that have had plastic surgery receiving facial fillers are experiencing swelling and adverse reactions from the Moderna vaccine. The Botox folks will likely avoid the Moderna vaccine until medical professionals figure things out. The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are both based on the new mRNA technology so doctors are unsure why the swelling is appearing from the Moderna vaccine but not Pfizer's. 130 doctors sign a letter urging the UK and other world governments to embrace vitamin D as part of a coronavirus prevention and treatment protocol. Shockingly, nearly all the doctors that have perished from COVID-19 in the UK are black, Asian or other minorities of color. This hints that a vitamin D deficiency may be negatively impacting people of color and is one of the reasons that the minority folks are dying in larger numbers. Of course the medical community pooh-pooh's such ideas because they are committed to the prescription drugs cash cow. You should be taking zinc and vitamin D-3 daily to make sure your immune system is beefed-up. The US government should be distributing bottles of zinc and D-3 to inner city folks and the rural poor. The supplements are dirt cheap and it would help people of color get through this pandemic tragedy. At the least the people should be educated in these concepts, as all the coronavirus articles in this series do, but the medical community does not cheerlead the simple measures (taking zinc and vitamins A, C and D-3 daily; and turmeric is always a good idea) that can help prevent or battle covid since they cannot make money on these cheap supplements. The new virus strain in the UK is showing up in France and Japan. South Korea and Japan, once shining examples of handling the virus, continue to struggle with their third waves. South Korea is struggling with its contact tracing program since the infections are onesies and twosies compared to the prior larger groups and clusters that were easier to track and tamp down. Japanese hospitals are filling up fast and the island nation is considering stricter lockdown measures. The Pfizer vaccine is being distributed across Europe and doctors are confident that the shot will remain effective against the new UK variant. 7 million Americans travel through airports over the last week, which is only 30% compared to last year, however, it is the most robust week of travel during the entire pandemic. People are not staying home. Instead, they choose to par-tay. You only live once.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 12/26/20: Los Angeles County, California, is in a severe hospital bed emergency, as is the entire state, with one covid patient dying every 10 minutes over the last couple days. This is America. Donnie is golfing.
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