Sunday, December 6, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 12/6/20; 67 MILLION GLOBAL CORONVIRUS CASES; 14 COUNTIRES OVER 1 MILLION CASES; 25 NATIONS OVER 500K CASES; 1.54 MILLION GLOBAL DEATHS; 15 MILLION US CORONAVIRUS CASES; 17 US STATES OVER 300K CASES; US EXCEEDS 145K DAILY NEW CASES FOR 23 DAYS RUNNING; 288K US DEATHS; US DEATHS EXCEEDING 2,250 PER DAY FOR 5 DAYS RUNNING; 1 AMERICAN DYING OF COVID-19 EVERY 30 SECONDS; US HOSPITIALIZATIONS TOP 101K; Coronavirus Attacking North America; United States Descending Into COVID-19 Hell; Blacks and Latinos Dying at 3 Times the Rate of Whites; Delusional President “Sore Loser” Trump Continues Ignoring and Mismanaging Pandemic; Hospitals at Capacity; Healthcare Workers Completely Burnt-Out; Medical System on Verge of Collapse While Americans Enjoy Virus-Spreading Holiday Parties and Political Rallies; Vaccines are Promising but Too Slow to Stop Exponential Outbreak; 3,260 DIE IN US ON 12/9/20 DEADLIEST DAY OF PANDEMIC; OVER 302K AMERICANS DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS A GRUESOME MILESTONE; Pfizer Vaccinations Begin; US REPORTS 246,761 DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US Hospitalizations Above 108K; Over 1.6 Million Earthlings Dead from COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 27








 

By K E Stone (Keystone)

China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected nearly 67 million people around the world killing 1.53 million souls. Dirtbag Dictator Xi is responsible for this crime against humanity. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet; even on their own Chinese people. To be a communist is to have no respect for the sanctity of life.  Over 46 million people have recovered worldwide (69%; 7 in 10 people in the world that were infected with covid have recovered; this number slips 1% over the last week).

The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, or Kung Flu (the self-appointed racist police have labeled this humorous play-on-words from the 1970’s Kung Fu television show as unacceptable for present-day society), has attacked and sickened 15 million Americans (4.6% of the 330 million US population; this number jumps +0.7% over the last week; 1 in every 22 US citizens have been infected with COVID-19), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 288K United States citizens (this number jumps by 22K deaths since Thanksgiving only 10 days ago). One American is dying every 30 seconds from covid. US daily deaths exceed 2,250 for 5 days running. The peak death day in the US is 2,921 covid bodies on 12/3/20; almost 3K dead in one day.

President Trump ignores the pandemic instead continuing to claim he won the election. Trump is focusing on pardons for himself and his family before he leaves office as the pandemic takes nearly 3,000 American lives daily. The deaths preferentially hurt the communities of color, the poor and disadvantaged folks, and people with health conditions and comorbidities, such as diabetes, obesity and heart and lung disease. On the positive side of all the ongoing pandemic devastation, 8.8 million Americans have recovered (59%; this number is up +1% over the last week which is a good thing; 3 out of every 5 Americans that were infected with covid have recovered).

The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but has one-fifth (22.4%; up +1.4% over the last couple weeks verifying that things are getting worse) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19%) of the deaths.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at 15 million followed by India (9.6 million), Brazil (6.6), Russia (2.4), France (2.3), Spain (1.7), Italy (1.7), UK (1.7), Spain (1.7), Argentina (1.5), Colombia (1.4), Germany (1.2), Mexico (1.2), Poland (1.05), Iran (1.03), Peru (973K), Ukraine (813K), South Africa (810K), Turkey (798K), Belgium (590K), Indonesia(576K), Iraq (563K), Chile (559K), Netherlands (550), Czechia 544K) and Romania (508K). These 25 nations have over 500K total virus cases. 14 of the 25 countries have over 1 million total cases. Five nations are over 2 million cases. This month, both the USA and India will have over 10 million total virus cases the two worst nations on earth. It is overwhelming. In the future, China must pay dearly for its bioterrorism experiment.

UK and Italy switch positions. Spain worsens. Germany leapfrogs Mexico. Poland leapfrogs Peru and becomes a member of the dreaded 1 million club. Peru will tag 1 million within two weeks. Unfortunately, Iran also becomes a member of the 1 million total cases club. Conditions remain dire in Ukraine as it worsens by two positions on the list. Turkey appears on the list so conditions are worsening in that region perhaps creating further virus spread from western Asia into the northern Middle East and eastern Europe. Iraq worsens leapfrogging Chile. Indonesia moves up one slot on the list with new and total cases climbing higher. Netherlands appears on the list. 11 of the countries in the list of 25 above are in Europe. In America, 17 states have over 300K total coronavirus cases. The US obviously fails at handling the pandemic.

The United States is in a third wave; it is an exponential wave (parabolic; vertical). The highest number of new daily cases occurs on Friday, 12/4/20, at 237,372 cases. Dear Lord. A quarter-of-a-million Americans are becoming infected with covid daily. The US breached the 200K level for the first time on 11/20/20 and now above 200K for the last four days running.

The daily new case rate crossed 100K per day on 10/30/20. It took about 8 months to go from zero to 100K cases and then it took only 21 days to tag 200K. The US went above 150K daily new cases on 11/12/20. The daily new cases are above 145K every single day for 23 days running!

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model for short, uses the daily new cases to project when the active cases chart will flatten and roll over. A couple words about charts. The daily new cases charts are the bar charts typically shown on cable news television and in internet articles. The daily new cases bar chart helps identify the virus waves. The active cases chart is the most important chart since this is the curve that needs to flatten and then roll over to the downside to create the bell shape, hence the term, “flattening the curve.” The flattening of the active cases curve represents the maximum strain on the healthcare system subsiding and then the active cases curve dropping off on the right side, to form the bell shape, verifies that the virus is being defeated. Alas, the sick US active cases chart above is explained below.

The daily deaths are presented in a bar chart format like the daily new cases. The total deaths are represented as a cumulative curve that continues higher representing the human tragedy that China has stricken upon America.

The Keystone Model identifies the peak date in new daily cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active cases bell curve will then peak 1 to 4 weeks later depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region, locality or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days typically holds true for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave (although Japan and South Korea are both currently dealing with a nasty third wave).

Ireland handled the initial springtime 2020 wave quickly, like others in the 11-day grouping, but currently is unable to stop the second wave and escalation in active cases; therefore, Ireland is now in the 28-day grouping like the US. Thus, a nation that originally handles the virus well and in quick order, may not necessarily be able to handle subsequent waves as well. Japan and South Korea are in the spotlight over the next month.

If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like the US and other Western nations, non-authoritarian, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve where the strain on the medical systems and personnel is at a peak). Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Israel is of course a key part of the Free World but PM Netanyahu’s authoritarian style aids the country in maintaining control over the virus, however, a fourth wave just beginning is testing the Jewish nation again.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher daily new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher daily new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher, signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their daily new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple weeks after the new cases increase (which makes December and January appear ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms, after they recover from the worst of the virus, which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. Some patients continue therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this continues to require medical staff and supplies.

The coronavirus pandemic is under control and defeated when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.

The US daily new cases bar chart is shown above with the current peak in daily new cases at 237K on 12/4/20. The Thanksgiving data skewed the 7-day moving average line (which smooths the data out so a trend can be identified) lower but then a big jump higher occurs as the new case data plays catch-up after the holiday. The 7-day MA is the most vertical in the history of the pandemic which is an extremely bad signal. A dire omen.

The pink circles show the holiday parties from left to right; Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Halloween and Thanksgiving. Christmas and New Years are on the come. The daily new cases either continue in an ongoing uptrend after the holiday parties or, if not in an uptrend and instead moving flat, the uptrend resumes within two weeks. People are going to want to congregate with loved ones and friends during this holiday season so the joyful hugging, kissing, singing and dancing will only lead to darkness, death, sickness and sorrow in the year ahead.

Pay attention to the Friday data, which is typically higher, so it tells a lot about the pandemic path ahead. The daily new cases on Friday, 12/11/20, are very important. If the daily new cases can flatten and fall off, there is hope. If the daily new cases continue higher above 218K, there is no hope.

As per the Keystone Model, adding 28 days to 12/4/20 is 1/1/21. Sadly, the first chance that America has at flattening the active cases curve will be at the end of this month and early January 2021. That’s terrible. And this outcome is only in play if the daily new cases do not exceed 218K. If the daily new cases continue higher, the flattening of the active cases curve will be pushed further out into the future. Folks, to put it in layman’s terms, we are in a world of sh*t.

The US active cases chart is shown above. The blue dotted-line shows the best-case scenario for America and the current best path forward. This blue path only continues if the daily new cases do not exceed 218K so keep an eye on the data. If the daily new cases rise, the active cases chart will follow the red dotted-line instead which extends covid misery into and likely through January. As the holiday parties continue, and fat Gary in Accounting snatches the last cashew off the banquet table, the brown dotted-line may be America’s destiny. This is the worst-case scenario where the flattening of the curve will not be possible until February or later.

This dire outcome represents an American medical system in complete collapse. If you have a heart attack at home while you are watching Jeopardy, or viewing the grandchildren’s photographs on Facebook, you may as well call the morgue instead of the hospital since you likely won’t make it. Patients will be stacked up in hospital hallways and make-shift tents in the parking lot. Freezer trucks are in high demand these days the mobile morgues are needed in even only moderately-populated cities and towns. The bodies are stacking-up.

Complicating this somber message further, the parties will continue through New Year’s which is 26 days away. President Trump has washed his hands of the pandemic mess he created through ineptitude and incompetence and is more concerned about his potential Hollywood future so do not look for any guidance from the weak leader. President-elect Biden cannot implement his plan until inauguration on 1/20/21. Therefore, everything presented in this report may need right-translated one month, or more, once the drunken virus spread is assessed after January 1. On New Year’s Eve, there’s a lot of lovin’, touchin’ and squeezin’ goin’ on, as Journey would sing. Humans need their lovin’. One thing is for certain. The coronavirus will be celebrating the most come January 1.

December and January are going to be the worst months of the pandemic. Pray that the path forward does not become even more disastrous come February. The vaccines will be rolled out for the general public from April forward but it takes a month after the first shot to build immunity. Time keeps getting pushed forward and pain and misery is linked to time. America is already changing as the corrupt crony capitalism system crumbles, however, the brown dotted-line likely represents fundamental changes occurring in the US at breakneck speed. The country will be in complete chaos under that scenario. Hold on to your hats over the next two months and realize that your destiny for the rest of your life likely depends on the days and few weeks ahead.

The pink circles show the major holiday party times as mentioned above. Again, similar to the daily cases bar chart, note that the active cases curve continues moving higher, or if flat, starts moving higher within a month’s time after every holiday. Sadly, you would expect trends to continue so after the Christmas/New Yea’s stupor, the active cases chart would be expected to be moving higher, or if flat, begin moving higher again. This is the tragic brown dotted-line outcome. If the worst-case scenario occurs, prayer will be the only option available.

The orange dotted-lines show where America blew it and failed to create the bell curve this year. The key was Memorial Day. The US only had to maintain the lockdown rules for a couple more weeks, through Memorial Day, and the whole year, and right now, would be vastly different. Instead, President Trump was panicking about the stock market and economy so he told everyone to open businesses, party it up on the holiday and the virus is over, by Donnie decree. That fateful Memorial Day weekend creates America’s sad destiny up through the present day. It also looked like the virus was defeated in September and October but Labor Day parties and summer beach fun and events send the active cases curve into the parabolic phase.

The US daily deaths bar chart is shown above. 2,921 souls perished at the hands of the China Flu on 12/3/20; the deadliest day ever. It’s an ugly chart and represents a lot of mothers and fathers, sisters and brothers, aunts and uncles, grandma’s and grandpap’s and sadly, sons and daughters.

The US total coronavirus deaths chart is shown above. The US covid death count is at 288K and the curve takes a hitch higher. The IHME death projections curves are referenced the most by media which offer four different scenarios; current path, increased mask use, rapid vaccine rollout and easing restrictions. The Institute for Health Metrics says 539K Americans will be dead by 4/1/21 based on the current path. If the vaccine is rolled out rapidly, the IHME predicts 528K deaths by April. If Americans can be encouraged to wear masks with greater participation, and Sleepy Joe Biden says he will ask citizens to wear masks during his first 100 days (January 20 to May 1) in office, the death count will be 473K by April. The warmer spring weather in April and May may help defeat the virus but this remains four months away. America is rowing upstream in the treacherous covid waters for the next two to four months.

The IHME worst-cases scenario is if mandates are eased and businesses reopened across the board is 770K dead which would surpass the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic that took 675K lives in the United States. Will the Chinese Flu, coronavirus, ever approach that number or sadly exceed it? COVID-19 is the worst pandemic in the United States in over 100 years and it is spinning out of control.

The CDC predicts as many as 19.5K covid deaths by the end of Christmas week. They may as well have rounded the number to 20K. The CDC groups many models together and predicts as many as 329K dead by 12/26/20.

The yellow dotted-line on the death chart is the Keystone Model simply curve-fitting the existing data. Interestingly, the yellow path predicts a bit more deaths by the end of Christmas week at about 340K and then about 410K dead come April Fool’s Day. Obviously, the high death count will not be funny then. The joke will be on America delivered by the filthy CCP. Keystone could tell you stories about what is going on in communist China right now that would make many of you physically ill. Communists defile humanity. China will pay for their deed.

Under the cover of darkness, the CDC releases information on deaths. Blacks and Latinos are dying at three times the rate of whites as compared to these many months when America was told it was two times. Same-o with Native Americans that die at about 2-1/2 times that of whites when previously America was told it was about 1-1/2 times. Congress needs to get aid to these communities of color pronto. The coming class war in America will be bad enough but inequality this blatant is going to create lasting violence and class hatred.

The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus, with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the death rate will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher. Unfortunately, you can see that ugly hitch higher the last few days in that orange death curve.

California’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Yesterday, Saturday, 12/5/20, California reports 25,320 daily new cases the highest ever. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls. Overnight, stricter lockdowns are imposed but the pandemic is spiraling out of control in the not-so Golden State. The lockdowns will incite further protests. It is amazing the pandemic has developed into such a mess. Where’s Donnie? Bueller? Donnie?

Mexico’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Yesterday, Saturday, 12/5/20, Mexico reports 12,127 daily new cases the highest ever. Canada reports the highest new cases ever. Ditto the USA.  The coronavirus pandemic is attacking North America. Batten down the hatches.

Russia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Russia is a covid sh*thole and the greatest untold pandemic story currently. The hospital system is likely in collapse but of course the news is suppressed. Putin is keeping himself within a bubble because of his weakened immunity system due to battling cancer and the onset of Parkinson’s. Russia is bragging that its vaccine program is ramping up. Putin does not want his enemies, or even his friends for that matter, to know that the country may be in a weakened state currently.

An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the story forward. Thanksgiving was the last update but as seen by the charts above there is nothing to be thankful for when it comes to COVID-19.

This is Article 27 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically in the United States as well as internationally. This twenty-seventh article is published on Sunday, 12/6/20.

Keystone’s coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning in March 2020 and sooner, through the present day, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring and recorded in real time.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on 9/24/20.

The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected; Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on 10/4/20.

The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers; Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.

The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America; US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10 Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23 published on 10/24/20.

The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe UnderLockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US PresidentialElection Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins ReportsAmerica Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff MeadowsTests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K HighestEver; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President TrumpRefuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188Kon 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.

The twenty-fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/15/20; US Reports 188K Daily New Cases Highest Ever; 40 US States Report Highest Daily New Cases Ever; US Coronavirus Cases Top 11 Million and Deaths Exceed 251K; 29 Worst Countries Include Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Turkey, United States, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea; Europe and North America in Various Lockdown Stages; Global Coronavirus Cases Near 55 Million and Deaths Exceed 1.3 Million; President ‘Sore Loser’ Trump Refuses to Concede to President-Elect Biden Almost 2 Weeks After Election Threatening the Transition of Power and New US COVID-19 Response Plan; Medical Staff Shortages; Americans Begin Hoarding Again; CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY; US Coronavirus Cases Exceed 12 Million; US Reports 192K Daily New Cases Highest Ever; US REPORTS OVER 204K DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US DEATHS EXCEED 260K; US DAILY DEATHS EXCEED 2K;  Coronavirus Article 25 published on 11/15/20.

The twenty-sixth article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/26/20; Thanksgiving Day;GLOBAL CORONVIRUS CASES EXCEED 60 MILLION; 22 NATIONS HAVE OVER 500K CASES;GLOBAL DEATHS EXCEED 1.4 MILLLION; US COVID-19 CASES EXCEED 13 MILLION; 15 USSTATES HAVE OVER 300K CASES; US EXCEEDS 150K NEW CASES PER DAY FOR 15 DAYSRUNNING; US DEATHS EXCEED 266K; US DEATHS EXCEED 2K PER DAY; President-ElectBiden Transitioning to Power; Hospitals and Healthcare Workers Strained butWorse is Yet to Come; United States Descends into Covid Hell; Vaccines arePromising but Remain Months Away; US REPORTS 235,272 DAILY NEW CASES ON 12/4/20WORST EVER; 2,921 AMERICANS DIE ON 12/3/20 THE DEADLIEST DAY OF THE PANDEMIC; 1AMERICAN DIES OF COVID-19 EVERY 30 SECONDS; US HOSPITIALIZATIONS TOP 101K;Coronavirus Article 26 published on 11/26/20.

The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple-few days.

The increase in daily new cases has to stop and level off, hopefully decrease, before there is any hope that the medical systems and personnel will receive relief about four weeks in the future. Realistically, US healthcare services will likely have to be rationed going forward. Doctors may be faced with difficult decisions about who lives, and who dies, in the weeks ahead. Unfortunately, by the end of the year, everyone, not just the poor folks and those of color, will know a family member, friend, relative, or guy down the street, that has died from covid.

The following nations are success stories that have beaten-back the latest virus waves. The active cases curves have flattened and rolled over creating the bell shape verifying that the virus is defeated for these countries; New Zealand, Australia, India, Colombia (but messy data), Peru, South Africa (but new cases starting to move higher starting a second wave), Chile, Bangladesh (but new cases starting to move higher), Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar, Philippines (data is messy), Oman, Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus bioweapon), Australia, Venezuela, Nigeria (new cases moving higher), Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic data), Iraq, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia (may be trouble ahead), Nepal, Argentina, Switzerland, Austria, Czechia, Armenia, Jordan and Morocco.

Brazil drops from the happy list to the sad list below as a second wave is now well underway. Rio de Janeiro take heed. Brazil turned the active cases chart over quickly for the first wave so the jury is out if they can resolve the second wave as fast. Panama experiences a huge spike higher in new cases over the last couple days and moves to the list below. Central America is under siege. Israel begins a fourth wave. Will PM Netanyahu step in with draconian lockdowns again? The strategy appears to work for Israel but it only beats back the virus for a month or so before it reconstitutes itself and increases again. Coronavirus is like a bad dream; it keeps coming back. UAE drops from the list above as it falls into a third wave.

All the countries listed above are doing better at handling the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may or may not be reporting truthfully). China is quiet. Did they already have a vaccine available for the bioweapon they released?

The 43 worst global hotspots, that have not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems), based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards the bottom of the list are in the worst trouble currently.

Ireland (Second Wave) (problematic data)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever are 4/10, 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve contitnues higher)
 
Spain (Second Wave) (limited and changing data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever in late October early November)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 11/22/20)
 
France (Second Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve continues higher)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Italy (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 11/22/20)
 
Lebanon
11/18/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases 11/5, 11/6 and 11/18/20)
11/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; peak on 11/29/20 Keystone Model nailed that one; see if it holds)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve continues higher)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Poland (Third Wave) (data may be problematic)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 11/23/20)
 
Malaysia (Second Wave) (data may be problematic)
11/24/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 11/24/20)
 
Romania (Second Wave)
11/25/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur in November)
12/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 11/28/20)
 
Dominican Republic (Second Wave Starting)
11/26/20 New Case Peak Date (highest since August)
12/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
11/27/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Ukraine (First Wave)
11/28/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/27 and 11/21/28)
12/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur over last 2 weeks)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Brazil (Second Wave Underway)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
12/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Indonesia (Second Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Belize (Second Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
UAE (Third Wave Underway)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
12/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Serbia (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
12/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Hong Kong (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave on 11/29 and 12/4/20)
12/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/19 and 12/4/20)
12/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
United States (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever at 237K!!!)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Pakistan (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave on 12/3 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Japan (Third Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur over last 2 weeks)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
South Korea (Third Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave on 12/4 and 12/5/20)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Moldova (Second Wave; the data is flawed)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur over last 3 days)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Albania (Third Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Panama (Third Wave Underway)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Egypt (Second Wave Starting)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Kazakhstan (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave over last 2 weeks)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Georgia (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Denmark (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur over last 5 days)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Mexico (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Following the flow of the countries above, Europe appears to be getting over the worst hump of the current wave but they will need to maintain diligence to keep the positivity going. There are pockets of trouble in Europe, but the eastern Europe, western Asia and northern Middle east region is a hotbed of infections.

North America is now also in the covid crosshairs with the USA, Canada and Mexico at the bottom of the list. Asia nations such as Indonesia, Japan and South Korea are also trouble spots to watch. Japan’s third wave is serious business all the charts spiking higher with the worst numbers ever.

Spain and Portugal may be getting a handle on the latest virus wave which would be good news for Europe. Ditto Italy where the active cases curve is starting to roll over. Georgia, the country, is in bad shape getting worse by the minute. Ditto Albania and Belarus; the western Asia eastern Europe region mentioned above. Denmark is taking a bad turn for the worse. Russia is a mess as explained above.

Egypt is steadily worsening so they would be smart to try and nip things in the bud. In another week or so, the new and active cases charts will be ramping bigtime higher in the pyramid country.

North America is in trouble. Canada, US and Mexico are sloshing around in the same covid-infected pickle barrel. Misery loves company. All three free nations post the highest daily new cases ever over the last couple days. The US and Mexico daily new cases charts are shown above. Where’s Donnie? Bueller? There is no one steering the covid ship that is adrift in the pandemic sea of despair. Where are the leaders?

A huge spike in daily new cases occurs in Belize so perhaps the wealthy are taking their money and running from the States. Lots of wealthy Americans have second homes in Belize. It is a relatively safe place to live, most people speak English, folks are friendly and there are many US banks available to handle funds and transactions. It is funny, although you never want to laugh at anyone sick, that a few hundred wealthy Americans all decided to head down to their Belize getaway at the same time but they probably brought the disease with them.

For America, California retook the first and worst position from Texas for the total number of coronavirus cases. The two turds keep flip-flopping positions. The worst states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, New York, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Carolina, Indiana, New Jersey, Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, Alabama and Colorado.

President Trump addresses the pandemic in the long-term with vaccines but he forgot about the short-term. Conditions are deteriorating in the United States and North America rapidly. Americans are stocking up again with stores limiting purchases. Some people are freaking-out like the springtime but others are displaying a laissez-faire attitude walking around mask-less.

The troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 42 US states have failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active cases rise with new waves. At least this is better than 10 days ago when all 50 states were on the list below with new cases rising and the active cases curves not flattening.

The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all of America is in the same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs. An increase in new cases leads to higher active cases and hospitalizations which then leads to more deaths. As CDC Director Redfield said a few days ago, the worst of the pandemic is ahead in December, January and February. US hospitalizations are at 101.5K on the way to 102K.

The following eight states have rolled their active cases curve over to form, or start forming, the bell shape and verify that the virus is defeated, however, the data is sketchy; Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Iowa. The active cases curves are shown to peak out at the same time as the daily new cases which is mathematically impossible. Maybe the data will settle out over the next couple weeks but do not be surprised if some of the eight show up on the naughty list below again.

Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
11/16/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Mexico (Third Wave)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever 11/13 and 11/19/20)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
11/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Hawaii (Second Wave)
11/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since Sept)
12/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Connecticut (Second Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Kansas (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy)
 
Washington (Third Wave)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Tennessee (Second Wave)
11/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Louisiana (Third Wave)
12/1/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Texas (Second Wave)
12/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/24 and 12/2/20)
12/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever occur in November and December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Vermont (Third Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/1 and 12/3/20)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Maine (Second Wave)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Alabama
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/2 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Oregon (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Jersey (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arkansas
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Idaho (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/27 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/1 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Delaware (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Oklahoma
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Indiana (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/3 and 12/4/20)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Georgia (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Maryland (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Mississippi (Third Wave)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is choppy and messy)
 
California (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Alaska (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Nevada (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arizona (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy)
 
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Florida (Third Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave occur over last 2 weeks)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/23, 11/25 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Kentucky
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/1 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/4 and 12/5/20)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
West Virginia (Third Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
12/5/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New York (Second Wave)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave on 12/4 and 12/5/20)
1/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

It’s déjà vu all over again as Yogi Berra would quip. California, Arizona, Florida and Texas are all in big trouble again. Remember when they were the center of attention months ago? The pandemic is a mess and the covid circle jerk keeps making its way around the world, and the US, in waves of misery.

The United States is a mess. There is no other way to put it. Healthcare workers are at the breaking point and they have not seen the worst as yet. The pandemic will become far worse through December with the first chance at flattening the US active cases curve not likely until late December early January. Then there is a worry of another spike occurring due to the Christmas and New Year’s parties. It is exasperating for the medical workers. Soon, all of America will feel the covid wrath.

The entire United States is a hot spot; there is no other way to describe it. The ‘highest new cases ever’ notations for each state above are jaw-dropping and proof positive that the Trump administration blew the handling of the pandemic bigtime. Trump put all his eggs in the vaccine basket and walked away from handling the pandemic on a daily basis. December and January are going to be ugly months. President-elect Biden appears to want to take a more hands-on approach in handling the virus but by the time 1/20/21 rolls around, the country may be in shambles.

The vaccine news remains positive but there are hiccups. Pfizer stuttered on its data providing clarifications and then a few days later said the December goals on vaccine development would be missed. The public is listening and watching. Each little misstep builds mistrust and lack of confidence in the vaccine program. The Whitehouse needs to communicate in a direct manner not the constant rosy talk that always results in missed deadlines and disappointing final information.

Whitehouse task force advisor Dr Slaoui is interviewed on CNN and slides in a comment that the vaccines will be available for the general public in May-June. It was April. These little baby things with changing dates are not going to cut it. If the public will not receive the vaccine until summertime tell them that now.

If the vaccine is going to make people sick like they have the flu for a couple days tell them that do not sugar coat it or watery down the symptoms. Tell them the percentage chance that it will happen to them. If you level with people, you will find that they will follow. If you lie and talk jackass talk, people will never follow you and in fact strive to do the opposite. The officials involved with the pandemic are likely scared sh*tless at what they see coming and the vaccines remain out of reach.

The black community remains skeptical concerning the vaccine. Less than half of blacks plan on taking the vaccine and they are in the high-risk group. Perhaps many are smart like others and they plan on simply waiting to see what happens to the guinea pigs.

Covid disbelief is occurring across the US. Some Americans believe coronavirus is a hoax no doubt in part due to the president's behavior and communications these many months. The covid disbelief may filter into vaccine disbelief. The medical community has an uphill struggle ahead. The US will be lucky if herd immunity is achieved one year from now. In other words, the way your life is now will likely continue for another year.

On the economic front, the major US stock indexes are at all-time record highs pumped higher on vaccine happy hype and on hopes of a fiscal stimulus bill. US futures are flat Sunday evening as investors wait to see if Congress announces a deal tonight or in the morning. Common Americans are screwed beyond belief. There are millions of people out of work. The restaurant industry is being treated like lepers in ancient times. 1 in 6 renters cannot pay rent. 1 in 4 businesses cannot keep their doors open. Food lines are miles long. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is the index most-watched by the public (the S&P 500 Index is the US stock market), tops 30,000 for the first time in industry. Trump came out of hiding for one minute to herald the Dow 30K number calling it a “sacred” event.

Congress has to sh*t or get off the pot with the fiscal stimulus bill drama. If a deal is going to happen by the end of the year, it has to happen now because time will be needed legislatively to finalize the bill. There are only days remaining, say this coming week, where Congress can agree to a spending bill, otherwise, the much-needed fiscal stimulus, to help common people, will not occur until February. America's coming class war may begin even faster than expected.

President Trump is in office for only 53 more days so the pandemic can become far worse before there is organization provided to right the covid ship. There is the potential for military action before Trump leaves office which may leave a hot mess in Biden’s lap and complicate the handling of the pandemic. The new moon peaks on the morning of 12/14/20 so if the US launches any covert raids or performs a military strike it will likely occur between 12/9/20 and 12/20/20. If military action does not occur by 12/20/20, then things should be quiet through the inauguration.

President Trump held a campaign rally in Georgia for the Senate republican candidates ahead of the 1/5/21 runoff election. A few thousand people assembled at an airport hangar nearly the entire crowd was mask-less. The guy that is supposed to be managing the pandemic is hosting another superspreader event. It is a hoot to watch the Trump groupies assemble at airport hangars. The president has never gone out of his way for these folks. He flies into an airport, walks to a podium, talks for an hour or so, then walks back to the airplane, and takes off. Trump does not visit local businesses or diners to find out what is going on in that community. He could not care less. The Donnie show is what matters. It’s comical.

Trump claims he won the election like senile Uncle John in the room at the end of the hall. He says Georgia is corrupt with crooked elections (even though multiple vote counts, both hand and machine, still show Biden as the winner with the same relative margin) but republicans must vote for the Senate races; another goofball message. Trump is playing games saying he won the election so his groupies will keep sending in dough to a slush fund. The donors think they are donating to fight election fraud when the fund can be used for virtually anything he wants. The booty is up to about $210 million so Donnie keeps saying he won and the election is a fraud as he says, “ka-ching, ka-ching,” under his breath followed by, “what sucka’s.” Teflon Don is stuffing piles of cash into his pockets while America becomes sickened with covid. We are watching the final throes of crony capitalism in the months and few years ahead.

In a late development, the covid-infected nest at the Whitehouse claims another victim with Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani testing positive for covid. He is 74 years old and will likely receive the privileged class treatment for the virus like the president. Giuliani has been glad-handing people in close quarters all around Washington, DC, and elsewhere in recent days. Call him "Typhoid Rudy." When you play with fire (ignoring the seriousness of the virus), you get burned.

Remember to keep your immune system at the maximum strength possible by taking zinc, vitamins A, C and D-3, and turmeric, each day. Check with doc but this regimen will have your body’s immune shield at full force when an obese guy with diabetes coughs on you at the grocery store or when a coworker shakes your hand after he picks his nose.

The simultaneous rise in daily new cases to peak numbers for all of North America (USA, Canada and Mexico) gets your attention. Countries cannot offer medical aid to one another since all are in the fight of their nation’s lives. The same goes for the individual states. Rural hospitals and communities are going to get hit hard over the next couple months. You really have to wonder how healthcare workers are going to make it through the next two months. Many probably will not. Some will quit due to the extreme stress while others may perish from covid. Try to stay home if you are financially able to do so. The pandemic worsens going forward. Pray for better times.

Note Added Monday Morning, 12/7/20: Dr Birx warns that the pandemic in the United States is the "worst event that the country will face, not just from a public health side." 10's of millions of Californians are in lockdown this morning. 85% of California is under some type of restriction due to the virus. A female restaurant owner's outrage goes viral after she is locked down and not allowed to operate when in the parking lot next door tents are constructed for workers to eat and congregate during a movie production. The rules are complete nonsense. The restaurant spent big money to produce the same environment deemed safe but only for one class of business. Restaurateurs are treated like lepers. This is not a healthy path America is following; it is the Primrose path. Protests increase around the nation against draconian rules at the same time the virus is spinning out of control.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 12/7/20: US States used old data to estimate how many vaccinations are needed. The count of healthcare workers are off. After all these months, a problem like this surfaces. Another black mark appears against the vaccines. Dr Fauci, probably after considering Keystone's active cases chart above, says the period "from the Thanksgiving holiday season to the Christmas holiday season, it is going to be challenging." From the chart above that brown dotted-line in the active cases chart is disaster, and with each passing day, it becomes a little more likely. It's a shame.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/8/20: A 90-year old UK woman is first to receive the Pfizer vaccine in a non-clinical setting. Thousands have participated in trials but she is the first public person to receive the "jab" in her arm. It will be interesting to see if the flu-like symptoms, which may or may not appear, will impact the people over 70 years old taking the vaccine. Trial data is released today and tomorrow and the vaccine appears very successful. Interestingly, about 90% of the people in the cities, the cosmopolitan settings, are quick to agree to use masks and receive the vaccines. In US rural areas, however, and many communities of color, only about 50% are willing to take the vaccine and they are more skeptical about using masks. Medical officials will need to boost the public's confidence if they want people to participate in the vaccine program. The CDC, or other medical professionals, or the Whitehouse, should have a scrolling vaccine web site where people can email questions about the vaccine 24/7 and all are answered one after another. Everyone could go there to learn and come up to speed with the vaccine program. It could build interest and excitement. But, that probably seems like too much effort for folks, and besides, Donnie does not want to miss a tee time. America's 'can-do attitude' is only a shell of what it used to be 50 years ago.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 12/8/20: Coronavirus naysayers will comment on the pneumonia deaths and flu deaths that occur each year in the US and how they are likely called covid deaths nowadays. Of course some of that will be true since the illnesses overlap but there are about 50 million pneumonia deaths and 50 or 60 million flu deaths per year in the US so that may account for a 100K dead but the COVID-19 total is approaching 300K dead so obviously coronavirus is responsible for cutting down humanity with its death scythe.

Note Added Wednesday, 12/9/20: US hospitalizations are over 103K. President-elect Biden continues piling on tasks for the first 100 days now proclaiming that 100 million vaccines will be distributed in that time period. Doctors are concerned over vaccine supplies. Trump turned down the offer from Pfizer for millions of doses of vaccines over the last few months not once but several times. Trump has committed to other vaccines as well a Pfizer but his decision is questioned since Pfizer says the US may not receive additional vaccine until the late spring or summer. The US will have to rely on Moderna. Donnie's a poor manager. The pandemic is a mess. The UK says a couple of people that received the vaccine yesterday are having significant allergic reactions. Medical professional say anyone predisposed to reactions from flu shots or anesthesia should delay taking the vaccine. People are going to lose confidence in the vaccines hearing this stuff. Pfizer said everything was rosy. Canada approves the Pfizer vaccine for public use.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 12/9/20: Singapore is implementing a "cruise to nowhere" program so boost the flailing cruise line industry. A ship set off with over 1,000 passengers but an elderly man tests positive for covid from a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) test. Obviously the trip turns into a hassle. People are quarantined. The boat turns around and heads back to dock. The man is then found to test negative in two additional tests. The first test was a false positive. The world is a mess after China released its coronavirus bioweapon. Note that the country doing the best economically right now is China. The CCP must pay for its bioterrorism. UK regulators say folks that have allergies are not recommended to take the vaccine. US hospitalizations are over 104K. The US reports 226,762 daily new cases today. The US REPORTS 3,260 DEAD TODAY THE DEADLIEST DAY OF THE PANDEMIC.

Note Added Thursday, 12/10/20: Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf tests positive for covid. South Korea's medical system is under siege as the pandemic worsens. South Korea was a shining example of how to properly handle the pandemic months ago but coronavirus keeps returning. The FDA is supposed to provide approval for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine today, however, the allergic reactions in patients in the UK may create concern, perhaps delay? There are millions of vaccine doses ready to ship as soon as the FDA provides the blessing. US hospitalizations are at 104,600. Protests against the covid restrictions are increasing around the US. People do not want to wear masks and think the virus is not a big deal (in part due to Trump's antics the last few months). In Montana, protestors are in front of health officer Matt Kelley's residence for two weeks with signs that say, "Oxygen is Essential" and "We Refuse to Be Your Experiment." Concerning anyone that is in denial about the pandemic, in a month or two, no one will be in denial. US unemployment claims hit a three-month high. OVER 300K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID A GRUESOME MILESTONE. That is a 9-11 happening each day now. President Trump is on the phone now frantically trying to schedule..... a tee time. No one is steering the covid ship.

Note Added Thursday, 12/10/20: The FDA panel votes 17 to 4, with 1 abstention, to approve the Pfizer vaccine for the US for emergency use. There is concern over people that tend to have allergic reactions from shots, children and pregnant women. The panel approves the vaccine for use for 16 year old's and up. Fauci says test trials for children and pregnant women may begin in January. The FDA and CDC will provide the final-final approval in quick order and vaccine will ship quickly. Folks should receive shots in the US in a manner of days. UPS and FedEx say that vaccine shipments will take priority. President Sore Loser Trump continues hiding in the Whitehouse. First Lady Melania is packing their wares so Trump knows he has to leave in five weeks. 

Note Added Friday, 12/11/20: France extends its lockdown into early January so museums, cinemas and cultural and entertainment facilities remain closed. London imposes stricter measures and wants to implement mass testing of school children. The US pilot's union says they would like to receive priority access for the vaccine. OVER 301K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID. US hospitalizations are above 107K. The US hopes to begin Pffizer/BioNTech covid vaccinations on Monday once the final-final approval is received at any time. Trump and his chief of staff are threatening FDA chief Hahn forcing him to authorize the Pfizer vaccine or resign. Trump tweets; "While my pushing the money drenched but heavily bureaucratic at US FDA saved five years in the approval of NUMEROUS great new vaccines, it is still a big, old, slow turtle. Get the dam vaccines out NOW, Dr. Hahn at SteveFDA. Stop playing games and start saving lives!!!" Damn is spelled wrong. Trump's antics only serve to destroy public confidence in the vaccine. Donnie has his own agenda which is to keep pushing vaccines through so the success is part of his legacy and not Sleepy Joe Biden's. What happens if there are bad reactions or something unforeseen happens due to the mRNA or other vaccines? Will Trump want all that potential future disdain as much as he wants the credit now? Of course not. That's Our Donnie. Trump tweets; "FDA APPROVES PFIZER VACCINE FOR EMERGENCY USE!!!" Four people that receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are experiencing facial paralysis (Bell's palsy). Americans will likely begin receiving the vaccine on Monday or Tuesday as officials cross the last t's and dot the last i's. Congress cannot agree on a stimulus bill so common Americans continue suffering while the upper middle class and wealthy go on with their daily lives. There will be future payback for the rich screwing the American common working class, people of color and the poor. Hahn says he did not receive pressure from the Whitehouse to approve the vaccine. Of course he does.

Note Added Saturday, 12/12/20: OVER 302K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID. Over 16 million Americans are infected with coronavirus and 9.5 million have recovered. THE NEWS BECOMES WORSE. THE US REPORTS 246,761 DAILY NEW CASES THE HIGHEST EVER. May the Lord Have Mercy on Our Souls. A quarter-of-a-million people infected in one day!! The Friday data is typically the worst due to the way numbers are reported and tabulated. America desperately needed the daily new cases (see chart above) to drop yesterday. Instead, the US sets a gruesome record. America is in trouble. The higher high in new daily cases means the active cases chart (see above chart) has no chance of flattening and rolling over until 1/8/21 (as per the Keystone Model that adds 28 days to the peak new cases day to forecast the peak in active cases).This is terrible news. America is screwed over the next two months and the fascinating part of it is that many do not see the covid freight train coming down the tracks; some don't care. With the vaccine joy, some folks now have a false sense of security that the worst is over and wine and roses are ahead. In truth, the United States is actually about to face the worst part of the pandemic going forward. Forget the holiday gifts. Instead, stock your pantry with food and water and buy two of the other things you need. The beginning of 2021 is going to be nutso. Over 1.6 million earthlings are dead from China's Wuhan laboratory virus bioweapon. Over 71 million global citizens are infected with covid and almost 50 million have recovered. Russia remains the worst coronavirus country. Daily new cases almost match the record high from a few days ago and over 27K Ruskies are infected daily. Russia's active cases chart curve continues higher with no signs of leveling off let along dropping to form the bell shape. Russia is in deep trouble and has approached AstraZeneca to see if a combination with their Sputnik vaccine would provide a better cocktail. Remember the Sputnik vaccine was the very first. Dirtbag Putin waves the Russia flag but it is likely all bull sh*t like always. If Sputnik is so great, why is the country the sickest on earth? The Ruskies are dropping like flies with 613 deaths yesterday the deadliest covid day for Russia ever. What do you think of your Chinese buddies now? Mexico is another covid Hell-hole that cannot stop the pandemic. the daily new cases are topping 12K per day the last couple weeks. The active cases chart continues higher and higher. President AMLO is overwhelmed; he was a covid denier months ago but coronavirus now uses him as a punching bag. Mexico, like Russia, is in deep trouble. Mexico approves use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The huge outbreak in Mexico will only migrate north exacerbating America's problems. Vacationers and partiers are on Mexico's beaches, frolicking mask-less. It is surreal. Many humans simply cast aside the covid worries and choose to live life like always. Others choose to hide under the bed. Most are in the middle, confused, receiving conflicting information, from weak leadership, and not knowing what to do. Life in America will be the same one year from now with masks, hand sanitizer and social distancing continuing. Pandemics run about 18 months to 2 years no matter what the smart scientists and doctors do. Thus, COVID-19 may trail off and begin to disappear next summer and perhaps be out of our global lives in late 2021 and early to mid 2022; with or without vaccines. There is a long way to go folks; think of yourself about halfway through the pandemic. The GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi vaccine, which is not a mRNA technology like the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (which is a good thing for those worried about the mRNA vaccines messing with DNA), reports an insufficient immune response in older adults. That's a punch to the gut. The news is released Friday afternoon when not as many people will pay attention. The GSK-Sanofi vaccine program is delayed into 2021. The J&J initial vaccine trials should finish in about a week and then the data tabulated; perhaps Johnny John, as the stock traders call it, will be successful. People of color remain more skeptical about receiving the vaccine than white folks. The vaccine hopes are pinned on Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna right now and the new messenger RNA technology. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, hospitals, that require all employees to receive a flu shot each year, are not requiring employees to receive a covid vaccine. The hospitals are encouraging workers to receive the vaccine but respect the fact that the vaccine was developed quickly and it is new mRNA technology. US deaths are over 3K per day for three days running. US hospitalizations are above 108K.

Note Added Sunday, 12/13/20: The FDA (authorizes use of the vaccine) and CDC (recommends use of the vaccine) approve the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine for emergency use. Shipments to 600 locations begin today and will arrive Monday morning when the workweek begins and facilities have full staffs available. 3 million doses are available and the individual US states decide how to distribute the vaccine. 20 million doses will be available by the end of the year. Dr Slaoui says 100 million Americans will be vaccinated by April. Dry ice must be used to keep the vaccine below -94 F (degrees Fahrenheit) which is -70 C (degrees centigrade). Your kitchen refrigerator is 40 F (4 C) in the daily use compartment and 0 F (-18 C) in the freezer which is not cold enough for the Pfizer vaccine. Therefore, special freezers and dry ice are used to maintain this frigid temperature that is lower than Antarctica's winter temperature. The Moderna mRNA vaccine requires a -4 F (-20 C) storage temperature which is an advantage over Pfizer. A regular refrigerator freezer compartment dial can be turned down to provide the -4 F temperature and easily store the Moderna vaccine until it is needed. German Chancellor Merkel calls a meeting to discuss a potential national lockdown. Germany reports 20K new virus cases yesterday. France reports 14K new cases. Denmark imposes stricter lockdown measures. UK considers more restrictions before Christmas. Europe and North America face a sad Christmas, holiday season and New Year's. The vaccines are hyped, which is great, but people do not realize what is coming at them over the next two months. Coronavirus is raging out of control in North America and vaccines will not make a major dent in handling the pandemic for a few months. People are focused on the rosy vaccine scenario while in the coming weeks and couple-three months, COVID-19 is going to punch them in the face. Famous country singer and legend Charlie Pride, that laid the ground work for many black performers, dies of covid at 86 years old. Kiss an angel good morning, Charlie.

Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 12/13/20: It is Electoral College Eve, and not a creature is stirring, not even a computer mouse. America awaits the big decision tomorrow where the electoral college awards Biden with 306 votes and the winner of the election. Will Donnie finally throw in the towel and concede? Of course not, he is a Trump, a sore loser cry baby. Over 305K Americans are dead from COVID-19. The Johns-Hopkins data lags the Worldometer data by a few days but J-H should announce the move above 300K US covid deaths at any time. The broadcast and cable news outlets reference the J-H data. Trump will not be bragging about the 300K death record, in fact, he will likely never mention it. To identify trends and provide forecasts, the Keystone Model uses the most up-to-date data even if it will be adjusted slightly over time. Mexico reports 12,253 daily new cases yesterday the worst day ever. The coronavirus pandemic tragedy in Mexico will only migrate north into the southern US states. Who's running the covid show? Nobody is in control of the pandemic. No one is steering the coronavirus ship that is stuck on the reef taking on water. The infected crew waves frantically to the Pfizer folks on shore that are holding vaccine syringes, but the healthcare workers can do nothing to stop the current worsening storm and the sinking covid ship. Millions of US citizens are in peril until springtime. Comically, the Whitehouse staff and cabinet, that have refused to wear masks or socially distance all these many months, as per their boss's orders, say they will receive the vaccine in the days ahead. The liberal-leaning media slams the announcement and after a couple hours, Trump buckles and tweets that the Whitehouse people "should receive the vaccine somewhat later in the program, unless specifically necessary." Trump says he will take the vaccine "at the appropriate time." In Donnie speak, that means he may or may not ever take the vaccine. All other living former president's have been on record for the last couple months unequivocally saying they will take the vaccine, including President-elect Biden. 

Note Added Monday Morning, 12/14/20: The Pfizer vaccine begins arriving at medical facilities across the United States. Everyone is excited about the vaccine, as they should be, but hey dummie, look behind you; do you see the covid freight train coming at you? You better start running. The coronavirus news becomes more dire each day and the pandemic will be at its worse when Trump leaves office on 1/20/21; that is an abject failure of leadership. Trump could not do anything for one year to stop or slow the virus; after all, it would have interrupted his tee times. Over 306K Americans are dead as per the Worldometer data and the Johns-Hopkins data will cross 300K deaths today and likely accelerate higher. The FDA may approve the Moderna vaccine by Friday. NIH Director Collins pleads with the public telling them not to 'wait and see' with the vaccine but instead get in line and take it since it is safe. Collins says do not get caught up in any "conspiracy theories." Germany begins a new hard lockdown due to underestimating the persistence of the virus. The UK identifies a new variant of the coronavirus which causes US stocks to stutter after a joyful start to the day due to the vaccine distribution. A nurse in New York is first to receive the vaccine. US hospitalizations top 109K.

Note Added Tuesday, 12/15/20: The FDA is pushing the Moderna vaccine approval process along quickly and authorization for emergency use is likely within days. The Pffizer vaccines continue for healthcare workers. The medical industry Einstein's show black nurses (a female and male) receiving the shot as a means to encourage the communities of color to take the vaccine. Blacks are the most skeptical of the vaccine. Instead of television antics, politicians and the medical community need to be educating the people in a more direct hands-on manner. Get into the inner city alleyways and the trenches of the rural poor. It will open your eyes to the true America. It will be an interesting outcome next year when the summer arrives along with the realization that not enough Americans are willing to take the vaccine to create herd immunity. Next year is going to look a lot like this year and with a very terrible start. The conspiracy theories are increasing on the internet and people are not so much worried about any potential changes occurring to their DNA and bloodline (although animal studies thus far show no damage to DNA) but instead are concerned over tracers (such as RFID chips) placed in the vaccine that the new 5G internet capabilities will be able to monitor and track. The only vaccines available now are the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines both are mRNA technology. Other non-mRNA vaccines are not yet available and did not achieve the end-of-year goal (which was not expected by medical professionals). The FDA approves the first COVID-19 test kit for home use that provides quick results. Congrats to Aussie manufacturer Ellume. This is a major positive development and was needed months ago. New York City's famous New Year's party in Times Square will be closed to the public. Congress remains deadlocked in providing a fiscal stimulus bill to hurting Americans.

Note Added Wednesday, 12/16/20: Coronavirus cases tag 74 million worldwide. US covid cases top 17 million with over 311K dead. America is on its way to 400,000 dead. US daily deaths spike higher yesterday with COVID-19 taking 2,981 American souls. Russia remains a covid disaster zone but there is very little international news highlighting the ongoing mayhem. Ditto Mexico that is a covid hotbed that will likely migrate north into the southern US.

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