Tuesday, December 1, 2020

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; SPX Prints All-Time Record High at 3678



Wheeee! Whooopie! Whheeee!. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3676.22. Lame-duck Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell are testifying before the Senate today promising more easy money for as far as the eye can see. Stocks go wild. A bipartisan task force in Congress pushes forward a stimulus bill for $900 billion for consideration so bullish traders are tripping over each other buying stocks at the ask. What a glorious and most joyous par-tay. The Fed wine is flowing like water.

There is only one problem. The joy comes with negative divergence, overbot conditions and a rising wedge pattern that say a spankdown is on tap in this 2-hour time frame. The chart just started the current candlestick at 12 PM EST, noon, sammich time. The next candlestick begins at 2 PM and then one will print at the close.

It would be fantastical if the stock market topped out here. Why? The S&P 500 placed its low March 2009 at the infamous 666 and closing low at 676. Fast forward 11-1/2 years, and after all the insane Keynesian money-printing that has made the wealthy class filthy rich, the HOD today is 3676 and perhaps a closing price at 3666.

The expectation is for a top right now and pullback to begin from here. We shall see if the neggie d on the daily and weekly charts kick in although that MACD on the weekly is creeping higher. The bears are ready to make a run for it; here they come. Do they have any juice? Mnuchin and Powell are starting to talk faster and are waving their arms wildly proclaiming that they will provide any amount of money necessary to keep the stock market turd floating. The politicians have sold their souls and all become caricatures of themselves. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:24 PM EST: Powell burps from a slice of peperoni and it sounds like he said stimulus so the SPX is up 47 points, +1.3%, to 3669. All Praise, Honor and Glory to Pope Powell and all Central Bankers; Modern-Day Money God's They Are. So let it be written, so let it be done.

Note Added 12:33 PM EST: .SPX 3671. Stocks continue higher. Mnuchin must be throwing dollar bills in the air proclaiming that fiscal stimulus will fall from the heavens forever, well, at least until 1/20/21 when he loses his job but fear not, Yellen, Queen of the Doves takes over next and she will try to provide mountains of fiscal stimulus (only if the two Georgia Senate elections go the democrats way on 1/5/21). VIX 20.33. VIX LOD is 20.00 so watch to see if a 19-handle prints. 

Note Added 12:40 PM EST: SPX 3666. VIX 20.42. Come on boys, flush the b*stard. It's the afternoon and Daylight's Fading. They're jammin' AMZN higher to keep the indexes elevated but its like trying to pass around a Sumo wrestler in a mosh pit.

Note Added 1:40 PM EST: Wheee! Whooopie! President-Elect Biden introduces his economic team and nominates Janet Yellen, Queen of the Doves, as the next Treasury Secretary. Yellen begins speaking and the crowd goes wild. Easy money begins falling from the rafters The SPX rocket launches from 3666 to 3675 almost at the all-time record high. The bulls are buying stocks hand over fist to prove their loyalty to Yellen and the Keynesian way of life. The VIX is a bit soggy but remains steady and begins higher again now at 20.35 and climbing. That's funny. The stock market keeps moving euphorically higher but the VIX is not moving any lower intraday. One of them is wrong. The SPX 2-hour chart above remains negatively diverged but the bulls are trying to squeeze the RSI a bit higher over the last couple hours to try and keep the turd floating into the closing bell.

Note Added 1:49 PM EST: Oh my. This is hilarious. Wharton economics Professor Jeremy Siegel is on Bloomberg and he is always Mr Bull so the crowd goes wild again. Siegel promises big earnings beats next year which means perpetual stock market joy. Wheeee! Whoopie! SPX 3674. VIX 20.38.

Note Added 1:54 PM EST: SPX 3672. VIX 20.40.

Note Added 2:04 PM EST: SPX 3674. A new 2-hour candlestick begins and the neggie d remains. Blow on it and it should fall over. Price is teasing that all-time high at 3676.22. VIX 20.35. We are now in the month of December. The November Rain never came, instead we see rainbows and candy canes;  now, perhaps A Long December begins.

Note Added 2:12 PM EST: SPX 3675. VIX 20.43. The last 65-minute trading segment begins at 2:55 PM EST so watch to see if a boatload of sell orders hit in that 2:50 to 3:00 PM window, or not.

Note Added 2:16 PM EST: SPX 3678. VIX 20.42. The SPX rocket launches higher. Yellen cleared her throat and it sounded like she said stimulus so the bulls are buying with reckless abandon and the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3678.45 at 2:16 PM EST. Floor traders break out in song praising the Glory, Majesty and Power of Heir Yellen. The VIX is not as excited and holds steady at 20.44 instead of dropping.

Note Added 9:16 PM EST: Sell programs came into the market late-day but the joy and hype for vaccines and fiscal stimulus rules the day. The SPX ends the day up 41 points, +1.1%, to 3662.45 a new all-time record closing high and 3678.45 is an all-time high. Sound the Seven Trumpets!.

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