Thursday, December 31, 2020

3,880 AMERICANS DEAD FROM COVID-19 ON 12/30/20 DEADLIEST DAY EVER; OVER 350K AMERICANS DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS THIS YEAR; Pandemic Spiraling out of Control; 360K AMERICANS DEAD FROM COVID AS 2021 BEGINS


by K E Stone (Keystone)

3,880 AMERICANS DIE FROM COVID-19 ON WEDNESDAY, 12/30/20, THE DEADLIEST DAY EVER OF THE ENTIRE PANDEMIC. 350,778 AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS THIS YEAR.

The 7-day MA (moving average which smooths out the data so a trend can be identified) hooks skyward again which is not good. US hospitalizations are over 125K another record.

The US reports 235K daily new cases on 12/30/20. All the record highs in daily cases occur over the last 26 days with only five days higher than the lofty 235K. There were 256K daily new cases on 12/18/20 the highest ever so watch this number closely. If it is exceeded any day forward, get down on your knees and pray.

Meanwhile, folks are partying during the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Today is New Year's Eve so folks will be drunk as skunks in a few hours cavorting all night long. Many will search for their clothes in the morning and wonder if all the fun and sex and partying was worth the risk of getting covid. They say yes. What can you do? Humans need lovin'. New Zealand kicks off the celebrations with fireworks as the clock crosses midnight minutes ago. The wine is flowing like water. Let the global superspreader events around the world begin.

To help boost your immune system and protect yourself and your family, TAKE ZINC AND VITAMIN D-3 DAILY! Check with doc but he/she will tell you to go for it. Stay away from people! Talk with them on the phone or computer or from 15 feet (4.6 m) away. 

The chart above is provided by Worldometer, a great site for coronavirus data, and annotated by Keystone.

The Johns-Hopkins and COVID Tracking Project sites are also great places for covid data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is the go-to site for the latest death projections. The current projection is for 567K dead Americans by 4/1/21. There are 350K Americans dead now. People are becoming numb to the numbers. As Joseph Stalin said in 1923, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths a statistic." IHME says the deaths will be at 459K on 2/1/21 only a month away. The United States may hit 100K dead per month in January. Hope not.

Here are the US hospitalizations as per the COVID Tracking Project. There are 125,220 people hospitalized with covid in the US the highest ever.

Here is the US vaccinations map as per Bloomberg 3.1 Americans have received the first dose. They are moving in the right direction. 12.4 million vaccine doses are distributed across the United States so a golf clap is in order. However, we have to get those doses in arms. Chop chop.

Keystone's real-time chronology of the pandemic continues with the last Article #29 published on 12/27/20 and the standard daily updates continue into the next Article #30 to be published on 1/7/21 give or take a day or two.

Article #28 was published on 12/17/20.

All the articles in the ongoing coronavirus series explain the virus simply so anyone can understand the pandemic. Charts are provided to help explain the seriousness of the pandemic and hopefully, in the future, show how the virus is defeated. For now, however, that is not going to happen. Things are going to get worse and January and February will be the worst months of the pandemic.

Note Added Saturday, 1/2/21: Today is a palindrome; 1221. On 12/29/20, 3,716 Americans were wheeled into the morgue due to covid. Some of the morgues are full so stiff bodies are placed in refrigerated trucks at the edge of the office parking lot, next to the dumpster. On 12/30/20, 3,880 Americans die from covid the worst day ever. On 12/31/20, 3,539 Americans bite the dust before they can ring in the new year. Yesterday, the first day of the glorious year, 1/1/21, 2,259 Americans kill over from COVID-19. The peak in US daily new cases is 255,809 on 12/30/20. Taking off 8% as per the Keystone Model, is 235,344. Sadly, the US active cases chart continues higher and higher with no flattening in sight let alone rolling over lower. If cases do not exceed 235,344, America remains in the game to possible flatten the active cases curve in a couple weeks. Two of the last three days, US daily cases are a hair under 235K knocking at that door of trouble; but not yet. Keep your fingers crossed. It is pitiful that the best case scenario now is for the active cases curve to flatten and potentially roll over in 2 or 3 weeks, but this does not account for the Christmas and New Year's surge. The US can hang in there as long as the daily new cases do not exceed 235K, but don't  hold your breath.

Note Added Sunday, 1/3/21: The news is not good. The numbers are continually updated and 241,171 daily new cases occur on 12/31/20 which is above the 8% leeway provided by the Keystone Model. Ditto 1/2/21 that reports over 236K daily new cases. America is screwed. It is going to get ugly. Adding 28 days to 1/2/21 is 1/30/21. The US active cases curve will not flatten until the end of January and not potentially roll over lower until the start of February. It gets worse. This does not include the rise in cases that will result from the holiday parties, or gatherings, as the refined class like to say. Hunker down folks. January and February will be the worst months of the pandemic. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Trump is busy trying to strong-arm a Georgia official into changing the vote count of the presidential election. The president is not doing his job. 360K Americans are dead from covid on his watch and all he can say is that he thinks the numbers are fake. Trump is in office for 17 more days.

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