CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand; SPX Prints All-Time Record High at 3678; Get Outta Dodge

The CPCE put/call ratio prints the unprecedented uber low numbers (highest call-buying in history) for several months signaling rampant complacency and a substantial stock market top at hand. Get out of the stock market on the long side and don't look back. Toss that dough into cash and let it sit there for a few months. The stock market is going to take an ugly turn for the worse and the current highs in stocks will likely not be seen for many months, or years, forward. If you are new to investing and stock trading, get out or you are going to get hurt. Do not be surprised if a flash crash event occurs.

The multi-month uber lows in the put/calls are stunning to look at in the chart above; mind-boggling. This behavior simply does not happen. The stock market is bloated beyond recognition. The SPX prints an all-time record high at 3678.45 and new all-time record closing high at 3662.45 on Tuesday, 12/1/20. The S&P 500's pant's seams and shirt buttons are about to pop due to the 11-1/2 years of obscene feasting on central banker easy money cookies and pie. The stock market is now gorging itself on the last of the fiscal stimulus cake leftover from this year.

Walk away, no, run!, and don't look back. As Sheriff Matt Dillon said on Gunsmoke decades ago "You get outta Dodge." The stock market is best played from the short side going forward. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long so it will be key when the quant flips short. Economic and market history is unfolding before your eyes in real-time. You have a front row seat. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/3/20, at 4:35 AM EST: Stocks remain elevated not knowing which way to turn. Over the last two days, the SPX prints an all-time high at 3678 and an all-time closing high at 3669. The happy hype around vaccines and fiscal stimulus continue. The bulls keep promising wine and roses ahead. GS analyst David Kostin promises investors the world going forward forecasting the SPX to tag 3700 by year end (19 trading days remaining in 2020), 4300 by the end of next year and 4600 by the end of 2022 (within the next 25 months). On average, Kostin believes the S&P 500 will gain a 1,000 points in 25 months or 40 points per month for the next two years straight. That qualifies as uber bullish. Bob Shiller, the Nobel Laureate, a typical two-handed economist (on one hand...then on the other hand....), says, "Stock prices may not be as absurd as people think." Shiller's CAPE ratio is at levels where other stock market tops occurred but he obviously goes against his own data. That is funny. The party is in full swing. Here, have a swig of Fed wine, it's good stuff; it gives you liquid courage to buy stocks. Are you having fun at Party Town? Everyone wants to rock 'n roll all night, and party every day. Hey, whazzzat? Did you hear that? It sounds like someone is locking the exit doors. Hey, where did that Keystone guy go? He was standing here a minute ago.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 12/3/20, at 6:35 PM EST: Stocks roll over on news that the Pfizer vaccine will not meet distribution goals this month. The SPX prints an all-time high at 3682.73, call it 3683, and ends the day at 3666. The happy hype around vaccines (sans Pfizer/BioNTech) and fiscal stimulus continue. The bulls keep promising wine and roses ahead. The AAII bearish sentiment reading is 22.7% the least bearish, since January, when the stock market was topping-out. At the same time the bullish sentiment is over 49% when 38% is the typical average. The AAII is a contrarian indicator. In other words, the crowd is typically wrong and right now the bulls are partying like its 1999, as Prince would sing, and the bears doubt anything bad will happen either, the bears have capitulated and joined the bull party. It never ends well when everyone is partying on one side of the boat; the Sloop John B can't hold all the bulls.