Friday, November 6, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds 118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe Under Lockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US Presidential Election Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins Reports America Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows Tests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K Highest Ever; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President Trump Refuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million; Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically Above 184K on 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24




 

By K E Stone (Keystone)

On Friday, 10/30/20, the United States surpassed 100K new coronavirus cases in one day. In fact, that day’s total was 101,541. Many of the biggest spikes occur in the new cases data on Friday’s probably because of the way the hospitals and other facilities report and tally the data. The Johns-Hopkins data missed the 100K print by a whisker that day at 99.9K but should catch-up to the Worldometer data any day, and today is that day.

At this writing on Thursday, 11/5/20, Johns-Hopkins reports 103K coronavirus infections on 11/4/20 the first time above 100K ever. The Johns-Hopkin data catches-up to Worldometer, but look at what is coming. Katy bar the door! The Worldometer data reports 108,352 new cases on 11/4/20 and a humongous 118,319 new virus cases in the US today, 11/5/20. This is where the Johns-Hopkins data is headed over the coming days. The Friday data, 11/6/20, will be key to see if it is a big new cases day. The increase in new cases leads to an increase in active cases and hospitalizations and then deaths.

The US new cases chart above shows the record-setting new cases above 118K on 11/5/20 which signals trouble ahead for the United States of America. The US is walking down the same thorn-ridden Primrose path as Europe. The new cases and 7-day moving average (MA) of new cases are at record levels indicating more pain ahead. The bar chart is going parabolic (vertical). Stock your pantry.

The increase in new cases over the last month leads to more active cases and the bell curve chart above turns exponentially (parabolic; vertical) higher instead of lower to create the bell shape. That’s a shame. America will be lucky at having another chance to flatten the active cases bell curve chart later this month into early December (current projection is for the active cases curve to top-out on 12/3/20 if the new cases high today, 11/5/20, is not exceeded). If the new cases continue rising the red line takes over and the curve does not flatten until the first of the year. Hopefully, if the country can flatten the curve again, say in three weeks, it does not blow it like all the other times before (orange lines).

Western nations are falling into a lockdown to lockdown rut. A country may impose a lockdown and then the virus infections decrease so everyone quickly returns to their old ways interacting socially and hugging, kissing and squeezing. What else is life for? But this behavior leads to another spread of the virus that leads to another lockdown. Repeat this pattern over and over. Countries, like the US, are in this never-ending cycle funk staggering from lockdown to lockdown without getting a handle on the virus.

COVID-19 can only be defeated in a stepwise process and it involves extensive testing, tracing, tracking and quarantine. One of the problems is the lack of support for poor folks that are infected or come into contact with someone infected. They cannot afford to stay at home and if they are asymptomatic, they are going to go to work and the virus spreads. Countries have to first stop the spread of the virus and unfortunately it can only be accomplished by lockdown-style requests or rules. Obviously, the communist, fascist, socialist and authoritarian states can impose lockdowns easier and with force which snuffs-out the virus faster than free-spirited Western nations.

The virus needs to be controlled to where the test positivity rate drops below 5% and preferably below 3% and even lower. This is the level where proper tracing and tracking can begin. People must be immediately isolated if they test positive as well as all the contacts. The government will have to figure a way to help common folks pay their expenses if they are expected to sit inside their house and watch television for two weeks. This is the only stepwise approach that will work. Over time, the new cases will dwindle to zero. However, if America keeps relaxing the fight against COVID-19 once another wave rolls through, the next wave is sure to come along. Do Americans have the resolve and stamina to move forward with the stepwise approach? This is where you need a strong leader that can help people understand the pandemic in simple terms and persuade them to follow him/her to the virus-free Promised Land.

The active cases chart is depressing since you can clearly see how the virus could have been controlled back in June, and then again in September, by flattening and rolling the curve over to create the bell shape. But instead, Americans choose to par-tay, attend campaign rallies, participate in protests and hurry back to work and school. This leads to the third coronavirus wave in the US and children are infected at the highest level yet (11% of the current coronavirus cases are children).

The virus news is not good, and getting worse by the day, so it will be interesting to see if a potential Biden administration can right the ship. The US presidential election vote counting continues since 11/3/20 and it appears that Joe Biden will likely defeat President Trump but it is not cast in stone as yet.

The US death chart is running strongly higher without hinting about rolling over. Listen up. By Christmas, all Americans will know someone that died of covid. Up to now, the minority groups, and poor and disadvantaged folks, usually of color, have fallen dead at a greater rate than people of means. The virus now infiltrates all levels of society and social class be it rich or poor. America may view the pandemic differently in a month or two as it penetrates all walks of life. Perhaps empathy and compassion will arrive as holiday gifts for the world this season? In Europe during the Black Plague, carts were pulled through town while the body gatherer’s chanted, “Bring out your dead.”

The IHME model estimates 347K dead by 2/1/21 if a universal mask rule is implemented (blue line). The current IHME projection is for 397K to be dead by 2/1/21 (purple line). The IHME worst case scenario, where mandates are eased and people are doing what they want, estimates 514K dead Americans by 2/1/20 (red line). The Keystone Model extends the current death curve behavior and estimates about 320K dead by 2/1/20. The treatments are better than when the virus was first discovered and many of the infections now are children and young people that can beat back the virus easier. Hopefully, that will keep the death rate low. Authorities are quick to remind everyone that if the majority of the population would wear masks, 100K lives could be saved over the next two or three months.

China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected nearly 49 million people around the world killing 1.24 million souls. Nearly 35 million people have recovered (71%; three-quarters of the people that had covid have recovered; about 3 in 4). The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 9.9 million Americans (3% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 33 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering 240K United States citizens. That is a lot of moms and dads, grandmothers and grandfathers, daughters and sons, neighbors, minorities and disadvantaged folks. 6.3 million Americans have recovered (64%; two-thirds of Americans that had covid have recovered; about 2 of 3). The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the United States. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (20.0%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19.4%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting their economy. The communist nation is getting back to normal while the rest of the world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at 9.9 million followed by India (8.4 million), Brazil (5.6), Russia (1.7), France (1.6), Spain (1.4), Argentina (1.2), Colombia (1.1), UK (1.1), Mexico (944K), Peru (912K), Italy (825K), South Africa (731K), Iran (655K), Germany (605K), Chile (517K), Iraq (490K), Belgium (468K), Poland (467K) and Ukraine (430K). France and Germany leapfrog two slots higher sinking deeper into covid Hell. Mexico worsens leapfrogging Peru. The UK moves two slots higher as the virus spreads. Italy worsens moving three positions higher. Belgium and Poland appear on the list so conditions are worsening dramatically in these two countries. Europe is discussed in more detail below. There are now nine nations in the 1 million total cases camp. Mexico will make it an even 10 but hopefully they do not get there.

The US is in a third wave. The new peak in new cases on 11/5/20 is used to target the peak in active cases (maximum strain on healthcare workers and equipment) 28 days hence, as per the Keystone Model, which is 12/3/20 (America’s next chance to flatten the active cases bell curve chart).

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, actually 12 days since the US presidential election drama is creating lots of drama this week, and more data and information are available. This is Article 24 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-fourth article is published on Thursday, 11/5/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth occurring and recorded in real time.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on 9/24/20.

The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected; Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on 10/4/20.

The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers; Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.

The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America; US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10 Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23 published on 10/24/20.

The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data is about 3 to 5 days ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data, sometimes more. This is why some of Keystone’s forecasts in the coronavirus series of articles appear prescient. You will hear about and understand a coronavirus pandemic trend here first followed by the mainstream media playing catch-up a few days later.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave.

If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like the US and many other Western nations, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve). Western nations live more feely so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Interestingly, Russia President Putin may be an incompetent dictator since the pandemic is spinning out of control. Perhaps he wants to trim the elderly populations so they are less of a burden on the Ruskie government.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system.

The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is now 11/5/20 taking out the prior record high. America is in a third wave of the virus, or third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Dr Fauci seems to prefer calling it the initial wave but no one is buying that one; call it the third wave. Adding 28 days to 11/5/20 is a target date of 12/3/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and hopefully begin to roll it over lower. This date is pushed forward if the new cases keep printing new highs. The United States will celebrate a somber Thanksgiving on 11/26/20 since the virus will not be under control. Everyone, not just the poor folks and those of color, will know a family member, friend, relative, or guy down the street, that has died from covid by Christmas.

The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India (problematic data), Brazil, Colombia (although there may be trouble ahead), Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Philippines (data is messy), Egypt (may be trouble ahead), Kuwait (may be trouble ahead), Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Australia, South Korea (may be trouble ahead), Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic data), Israel, Iraq, UAE (data is problematic) and Uzbekistan (problematic data). Oman, Indonesia and Ethiopia are added to this list as their active cases curves drop lower and new cases subside.

Pakistan blew it since its new cases and active cases are once again on the rise beginning a second wave. Pakistan is moved from the list above to the one below. Ditto Kazakhstan. Surprisingly, Japan sees a rise in new and active cases so they are in the covid soup again, starting a third wave, so the island nation moves to the list below. The Japanese are cleanliness freaks so how can coronavirus be on the spread there again? It is an extremely contagious virus.

The 39 worst global hotspots, that have not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems) provided. The nations towards the bottom of the list are the worst at handling the difficult battle against the contagious covid virus. China’s deadly coronavirus is murdering thousands of innocent souls each day.

Moldova (Second Wave)
10/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart continues higher)
 
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; Ireland has failed to flatten the active cases curve in the 11-day time frame like the first wave so now it is a 28-day country as per the Keystone Model; Ireland is the first country that handled the virus quickly initially, but cannot repeat their success for the current second wave)
 
Nepal (Second Wave)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; chart may have peaked 10/24/20; data is problematic)
 
Argentina (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 10/23/20)
 
Mexico (Second Wave)
10/24/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave 10/17 thru 10/24/20)
11/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/8 and 10/20/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 6/24 and 10/21/20)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Switzerland (Second Wave)
11/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
11/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Czechia (Second Far-Larger Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/20/20, 10/11/20 and in November)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belize (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Japan (Third Wave Starting)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases highest since April)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/3 and 11/5/20)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/4 and 11/5/20)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Albania (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Poland (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
 
Austria (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
France (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Italy (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Romania (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Lebanon (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
United States (Third Wave of Original Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 11/4 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Ukraine
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Armenia (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/23 thru 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Georgia (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Pakistan (Second Wave Starting)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave 11/4 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Kazakhstan (Second Wave Starting)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

 

Europe is a mess. Greece imposes a national lockdown to try and stop and contain the virus. Italy is in a red zone lockdown for several regions that involves 16.5 million people (Italy is a 60 million population). Protestors set fires in the streets. Spain implements strict lockdowns.

As mentioned above, Belgium and Poland are hot spots. Hospitals are stretching their limits in Belgium so much so that some COVID-19 patients are airlifted to Germany for treatment. Belgium’s health minister has decreed for one month that they are “no longer in control” of the infections. Belgians are dropping like flies. Poland reports its highest deaths in one day at 445 souls. Russia and Ukraine are pummeled by the virus week after week.

Denmark identifies a new strain of coronavirus in its mink population. The UK places travel limitations against Denmark. China is complaining that foreigners traveling to China continue to bring the virus and create small outbreak clusters. China best not look for sympathy since they created the mess after releasing the coronavirus bioweapon.

For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The worst 17 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are Texas the worst state, California, then Florida is the third worst state, followed by New York, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, Alabama, Indiana, Virginia and Louisiana. Wisconsin and Missouri are additions to the list. Texas, Illinois, Tennessee, and Alabama move higher on the list (these states worsen). Wisconsin and Ohio leapfrogged Pennsylvania (they worsened). Missouri leapfrogged Alabama. Michigan now appears on the list so things are not going well up north. Indiana also moves up on the list.

The 2 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Georgia (but new cases print a one-month high and rising) and Louisiana. Other states had been successful at flattening the curve and creating the bell shape on the active cases chart, but they have now succumbed to the covid quagmire again; 48 states in all and it is troublesome that so many are printing either all-time highs in new cases or record highs for this recent wave. This successful list, which now only contains 2 states and one is shaky, was 3 states 12 days ago, 6 states 22 days ago, 11 states 32 days ago and 15 states 42 days ago. America is sliding down the covid rabbit hole.

Florida joins the losers list below after beating the virus back successfully for a few weeks. The new cases are the highest since August and the active cases curve is beginning to curl higher. A dark cloud is forming over the Sunshine State as it begins its third wave. No one yet realizes that Florida is going to get hit again with coronavirus but in a couple-three weeks, all Floridians will know. Washington, DC, the District of Columbia, moves higher with new cases and active cases.

Below is a listing of the 48 US states that have failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active cases rise with another wave. This list of sick states was 47 states 12 days ago, 44 states 22 days ago, 39 states 32 days ago and 35 states 42 days ago. Do you see the trend? The pandemic grew from 35 troubled states to nearly all 50 states, the entire nation, in only 42 days. At the same time the states that were doing a good job handling the virus, by flattening the active cases curve and rolling the chart over lower to create the bell shape, was 15 states 42 days ago and that has dwindled to two, may as well call it nothing. America is in deep virus trouble and it is going to get worse going into Thanksgiving. Conditions are deteriorating.

The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but nearly all the states listed below are in the same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs today, 11/5/20. The United States is following Europe into COVID-19 Hell. This coronavirus wave across Europe and North America is going to be nasty.

Virginia (Second Wave)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (but chart moves higher)
 
Alabama
10/24/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 7/23, 9/25 and 10/24/20)
11/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Alaska (Second Wave)
10/25/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
South Dakota (Second Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/30, 10/31 and 11/5)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Wyoming (Third Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/1/20 New Case Peak Date
11/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Connecticut (Second Wave)
11/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Washington (Third Wave)
11/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Kansas (Third Wave)
11/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy and problematic)
 
New Mexico (Third Wave)
11/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Jersey (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Hawaii (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since Sept)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases chart is rising)
 
Missouri
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/15, 11/3 and 11/4/20)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/12/20
 
Tennessee (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/23, 10/25 and 11/4/20)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Mississippi (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Minnesota (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
West Virginia (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Maine (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy)
 
Delaware (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since August)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Nevada (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
North Dakota (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New York (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Maryland (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of third wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
Indiana (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arizona (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Vermont (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
California (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Oregon (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Texas (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 11/4 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Oklahoma
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/29 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Kentucky
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/24 and 11/2 thru 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arkansas
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Utah (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Idaho (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases on 11/4 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Montana (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/30 and 11/5/20)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Florida (Third Wave Starting)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave thus far)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Hospitals in several areas around the US such as El Paso, Texas, and in Wisconsin, are bursting at the seams. Temporary shelters are erected to help with the overflow of patients. Air Force medical specialty teams are deployed to El Paso to help halt the outbreak.

That is a list of 48 US States in the throes of a contagious pandemic. It is terrible and shameful that the mighty United States is in such horrible shape nearly a year into the pandemic (China and Asia were dealing with covid this time last year). The majority of states will not have a chance to flatten their active cases curve until the end of November into early December. When you mix in cabin fever in winter time, Americans are going to go bonkers. The US can watch Europe across the pond because whatever happens there is coming to our shores with a couple week or so lag.

With the presidential election undecided although it looks like democrat Joe Biden will win, it is unknown how President Trump will handle the virus as he potentially exits stage right on 1/21/21. Trump campaigned on saying the virus is no big deal, we are ‘rounding the corner’ and covid is ‘going away’ so how will he handle the fact that the pandemic is spreading again under his watch? It is difficult to play down 1,000 American deaths per day and a total body count over 241K and growing. The American voters thought that was a bit much and potentially have given Donnie his pink slip at least in part due to his poor handling of the pandemic.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Virtually hug a caregiver; they may be the ones caring for you or a loved one a few weeks from now.

On Monday evening, Election Eve, 11/2/20, Dr Birx, who is Dr Fauci’s right-hand colleague, proclaims, “We are entering the most concerning and deadly phase of this pandemic.” Birx pushes back at the president that keeps saying the US is rounding the corner (it’s not true). She said more days in excess of 100K new cases are coming. Trump says she is saying this before the election to hurt him in at the polls.

Dr Gottlieb warns that the US may enter a sustained period where the deaths substantially exceed 1,000 per day. In the US, children account for 11% of the coronavirus cases and many scientists and doctors say the number is likely much higher. This is the highest number of children infected this year.

“Project Warp Speed” continues to speedily develop a vaccine. The Regeneron treatment that successfully treated President Trump will be made available to as many as 300K people by January and there will be substantially more cocktail doses available in 2021. Regeneron is found to be effective in treating covid at its initial onset and in the early stages of the disease although it is less effective once the patient becomes very ill.

Authorities are concerned in the US that after a vaccine is proven effective and distributed around the nation, few will want to take it. It will get very ugly in America if the government thinks about forcing people to receive the vaccine; the US is not Russia.

With the US presidential election up in the air, the fiscal stimulus bill remains up in the air. As sickening as it is, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Leader McConnell pick up where they left off each unwilling to further compromise on the fiscal stimulus bill. With millions of people already seeking food at the food banks and unable to pay rent, and coronavirus worsening across the United States, things are about to go from bad to worse.

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 11/6/20, at 3:55 PM EST: Johns-Hopkins reports an eye-popping 121,890 new cases on 11/6/20. Dear Lord. This number blows away the Worldometer new cases at 118K on 11/5/20. These are horrible records and a sad day for humans. Who is steering the USS coronavirus ship that is headed for the jagged reef? Commander Trump or Captain Biden? Or is it the blind leading the blind? Oh-no. The Worldometer data is posted. Please sit down for this one. THE US DAILY NEW CASES HIT 132,540. The pandemic is about to smack Americans in the face. The Johns-Hopkins data spiked sharply higher and now the Worldometer spikes higher as well. That is a tough number to swallow; over 132K Americans became infected with covid today. Just think how many are missed. And all those folks are somebody's mom or dad, or son or daughter, or grandpap or grandmother or neighbor, coworker, or friend. Dr Gottlieb says, "120 thousand cases are not 120 thousand cases. We are probably, at best, diagnosing one in five cases right now." Gottlieb concludes that the US new daily coronavirus cases are at least half a million. Gottlieb forecasts major trouble ahead for the US. President Trump needs to leap into action and begin handling this new pandemic wave as quickly as possible.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 11/7/20: Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows tests positive for COVID-19. If Biden is awarded the presidency (he leads the ongoing vote count in the four remaining key states but President Trump will not concede), he would take over a coronavirus-infected Whitehouse. Meadows has been attending events in recent days and numerous videos and pictures surface showing him without a mask. He knew he was sick. The folks in the pictures have flown back to different states after the events. Several news reports say he tried to keep the news about his positive test quiet and away from the press. Another Trump campaign aid also tests positive. Two weeks ago, Meadows proclaimed that the Trump administration was "not going to control the pandemic." Perhaps he should have and he would not be sick.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 11/8/20: Coronavirus cases top 50 million around the world. Over the last year, China's communist party (CCP) has murdered 1.26 million people around the globe with the release of their covid bioweapon. US cases are over 10 million with over 243K dead. Over 56K Americans are hospitalized; this was only 40K a week or so ago. Hospitals in South Dakota are overwhelmed with doctors and nurses now bussed-in from out of state. Did you have fun at the Sturgis motorcycle rally? 1,031 Americans died of covid yesterday and 1,244 the day before that, 1200 before that and 1,187 dead on Election Day, 11/3/20. The deaths are above 1K for five days running a streak not seen since the peaks of the first and second waves. America needs a federalized response to coronavirus. Trump lost the election because of COVID-19; the pandemic is Trump's Waterloo. America has a lot of hurt ahead especially after seeing the crowds and celebrations after Joe Biden is declared the 46th POTUS yesterday just before lunchtime (infections are rising exponentially now and will continue considering all the human interaction). President Trump the sore loser is eating sour grapes and refusing to concede. Biden said he is appointing scientists and experts to his covid task force. Biden takes the pandemic more serious than Trump but the president remains in office until 1/20/21 when the president-elect then becomes the president, and Donnie becomes a common man again.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/9/20, at 7:00 AM EST: US stock futures explode +4% higher on news that Pfizer's vaccine prevents 90% of covid infections. The Dow futures are up 1,300 points. The SPX futures are up 112 points. VIX 24.05.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/9/20, at 8:00 AM EST: US stock futures are running wildly higher on the vaccine news. The Dow gains over +5% and S&P 500 over +4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index futures, however, are flat. Russell 2000 small cap futures catapult +7% higher. Trump tweets; "STOCK MARKET UP BIG, VACCINE COMING SOON. REPORT 90% EFFECTIVE. SUCH GREAT NEWS!" Utah declares a state of emergency as the pandemic rages out of control. Secretary of HUD Ben Carson tests positive for coronavirus after he attended the president's election-night get-together one week ago. Chief of Staff Meadows was infected with the virus and attending the same event as well as a couple other individuals. The Whitehouse is a coronavirus nest. Sleepy Joe is on the phone right now scheduling the fumigators.

Note Added Monday, 11/9/20, at 8:00 PM EST: US stocks rally on the session with the major indexes printing new all-time record highs, but fade away into the closing bell. Cyclical stocks catapult higher. Airlines soar +30% higher. Hotel companies are over +20% higher. Entertainment, travel, tourism, gambling and drug stocks print huge gains. Banks and cruise lines cruise higher. PFE (Pfizer) jumps +8%.  BNTX (BioNTech) leaps +14%. MRNA (Moderna) gains +7%. MRK (Merck) ends flat. JNJ (Johnny John) +3%. The Dow was the big winner up +3% on the day. The S&P 500 gains +1.2%. Small caps are the big winner up +3.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq loses -1.5%. The stay-at-home stocks crash on the vaccine news. PTON (Peloton) collapses -20%. ETSY -17%. AMZN (Amazon) -5%. NFLX (Netflix) -9%. GRUB (GrubHub) -11%. Docusign (DOCU) -15%. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/10/20, at 4:14 AM EST: The initial euphoric high off the Pfizer vaccine news is fading. As shown above, 3% of the US has been infected with covid. The Pfizer study has 43K people so about 1,300 people should have become infected but there are only 94. The bulk of the infected patients had the placebo. If one-half of the 43K had the placebo, about 650 people would be expected to be infected. This hints that the study has mostly middle-aged healthy white people enrolled but the data indicates about 60% are white and 40% of racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds (whatever that means). The vaccine is two doses which may be difficult for people to embrace. The immunity comes on about 28 days after the vaccine. Humorously, you can already hear the doctors telling you, as you lay on the living room floor sick as a dog, that you must have had it (flu or covid) before you got the shot. Another unknown is how the vaccine helps with severe illness and how it protects over the long term. Piling on more Gloomy Gus and Negative Nancy stuff, the vaccine has to be maintained at -94 (negative) degrees Fahrenheit (-70 C) when it is transported so special suitcases will be used as it is flown to the areas of need. There remains many unanswered questions and there will be more information released on the Pfizer vaccine in about three weeks or sooner. The UK is cautiously optimistic on the Pfizer vaccine and has ordered 40 million doses. The covid pandemic is spinning out of control in France. Bed capacities are at capacity. France's economy is taking a big hit which creates ripple affects around the globe. The vaccine news creates optimism for next year and forward, however, the pandemic is escalating in Europe and the US right now with new cases going parabolic. The near-term is the big worry but everyone is whistling past the graveyard. Americans will feel it in another week or two and perhaps panic like the springtime and empty the store shelves of every paper towel and toilet paper roll. Some folks are letting their guard down on the happy vaccine talk at the worst possible time. Families feeling more optimistic may be more prone to celebrate Thanksgiving together now which would only increase the virus cases in the near term. The United States faces a tough covid period into year-end and, independent of the human toll, the pandemic will likely hit the economy hard.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 11/11/20: Veterans Day/Armistice Day/Remembrance Day. An interesting date; 11112020. Eli Lilly receives emergency use approval for its therapy. The vaccine and treatment news is positive but the new cases continue spiking higher. Worldometer data indicates 135,653 new cases today. Dear Lord. Johns-Hopkins reports 136,325 new cases today a record high and above the Worldometer data which is surprising. 100K is already a distant memory and it only occurred days ago. 1,346 people die of covid today the highest number of daily deaths since 8/18/20 three months ago. Hospitalizations are above 61K the highest of the pandemic. America needs a president to take control of the mess. Vice President Pence is in charge of the Whitehouse Task Force for the virus, that never seems to meet, and he is going on vacation. You cannot make the stuff up. Pence cancels the vacation because of the optics but says he wants to aid the president on the election challenge rather than address the pandemic. New Jersey imposes new restrictions on its residents as the pandemic rages out of control Newark is under a 9 PM EST curfew. Pennsylvania new cases are running higher. Globally, France is a mess now with hospitals at capacity and the health chief warning the public that the worst is yet to come. Lebanon goes into a lockdown. The luster comes off the Eli Lilly rose as the FDA places restrictions on the use of its therapy and is concerned about its manufacturing plant. The Pfizer CEO Bourla sold $5.6 million in PFE stock on the price pop on Monday. Isn't that nice. He placed that trade in action in August and the price target triggered the sale. Now you don't think he knew more about how their vaccine was progressing than the public knew, do you? Be glad that America's rigged crony capitalism system is crumbling now; the sooner the better.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 11/11/20: President Trump appears at a ceremony at Arlington but does not talk to the press. President-Elect Biden attends a small ceremony at a Korean War memorial. Greece is the latest European nation congratulating Biden on the election win and welcoming back more decisive American leadership. The US is a covid nightmare. Wisconsin is advising residents to stay home; their hospitals are overrun. Michigan is restricting the size of groups. Iowa is imposing mask mandates. Illinois is imposing travel restrictions and Michigan is placed on their list. New York City tells citizens thee is one last chance to top the virus and people must "act now." Texas covid cases exceed 1 million. In South Dakota, 1 in every 1500 residents are in the hospital. US hospitalizations jump 10% in the last five days. The cars are stacked side-by-side and bumper-to-bumper at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, with people waiting for a free coronavirus test. The pandemic is worsening by the hour in the United States. It's a mess. Who's steering the ship? Where's Trump? Pence? Trump? Bueller? Where's Ferris Bueller? Trump must have taken the day off. Two more folks around the Whitehouse become sick from the virus; the infected covid nest sickens more victims. One guy is an associate of Rudy Giuliani who is running the president's legal team alleging voter fraud during the election over a week ago.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/12/20, at 4:00 AM EST: The US descends into covid Hell. The Johns-Hopkins data reports 144,133 new cases yesterday. It's out of control. The Worldometer data reports 142,906 cases yesterday and 142,212 the day before. America is falling into the same morass as springtime. Hospitals are at capacity and completely overwhelmed in nine states. Scientists and doctors did not expect this to potentially happen until well into wintertime. Pennsylvania new cases are at record highs with 200 people on ventilators. Over 65K people are hospitalized in the US. Darkness descends on the holidays and Trump is MIA. Republicans may be viewed as obstructionists and blamed for the bad pandemic stuff coming our way. King Donnie may be losing interest in the job now that he was given his walking papers. President-Elect Biden selects Ron Klain as his chief of staff and vows to address the pandemic as the top priority when he takes office. President Trump remains holed-up in the Lincoln Bedroom refusing to concede. Republican politicians supporting the president's claims of voter fraud and some Trump voters flock to the Newsmax cable news network (more to the right than Fox News) to cheerlead each other and opine how they were cheated in the election. In Denmark, the controversy over culling 17 million mink continues. The Chinese virus was accidentally, or purposely, released from one of the two Wuhan bioweapons laboratories. The story from the CCP is that the virus infected a bat that infected a human. If this is the case, coronavirus has gone from bat to human to mink and back to human. Vaccines will be playing catch-up forever considering all the mutations that will likely occur going forward. A huge fear of coronavirus mutations may be the 2021 story. Scientists and doctors are avoiding the discussion of mutations since they do not want to make the population more gloomy and depressed about the virus than it already is. Japan sets record for new coronavirus cases (Japan is called out in the article above). Additional luster is off the Pfizer vaccine rose as people in the study claim that they know they received the vaccine and not the placebo because they got very sick for a day or three with chills, headaches, nervousness and hangover-type symptoms. Humorously, like the old saying goes about the yearly flu shot, 'get the shot, get the flu', now it will be, 'get the shot, get the covid'. Russia claims their vaccine is 92% effective (after Pfizer said there's is 90%). Americans are taking notice of the pandemic's drastic turn for the worse. The pandemic surge will hurt the economy both short-term and long-term. The hit in the near-term is obvious as people will spend more time at home again. The long-term impact is more worrisome for the economy since the never-ending pandemic waves cause people to become anxious and pullback on their spending and instead start saving more. This behavior can tank an economy. State governors are realizing that they may have to impose strict lockdowns again like springtime but fear the wrath of the population that are having trouble supporting themselves and at the same time suffering pandemic fatigue. The CDC says wear a mask to protect others and yourself (for months they were saying the mask was to protect others). The virus is aerosolized floating in the air in enclosed places for as much as a few hours; stay away from public restrooms. Watch those gas pumps as well. The previous article showed the map of the US and how the virus hotspots are the worst along the major interstates and highways throughout America. Perhaps the virus stays on those metal pump and pump handle surfaces for several hours so use the hand sanitizer, and caution, when fueling-up. Keep taking the immunity-boosting supplements daily like zinc, vitamin A, C, D-3, and turmeric, of course, after your doctor says its cool (which he will).

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/12/20, at 7:00 AM EST: The US is in COVID-19 Hell and scientists and doctors are suggesting that people remain at home and forego the Thanksgiving (Thursday, 11/26/20) celebrations. Durations and exposure leads to more infections. If people meet, use masks, stay as far away from each other as possible, crack a few windows open, keep the number of people low and shorten the time together. Humorously, after all that, why not just stay at home and say forget it; maybe that is what they want. Where's shy Donnie? The walls are closing in around him. The pandemic worsens. Ironically, Trump was in charge two weeks ago making fun of Biden for having mental problems and hiding in the basement but after the election, Sleepy Joe rises to power and King Donnie is the one with emotional/mental issues and hiding in the Lincoln Bedroom. CNN commentator Dr Sanjay Gupta calls the pandemic a "humanitarian disaster." Ohio Governor DeWine, a republican, is imposing more mask orders and may shutdown bars, restaurants, fitness centers and other businesses next week. No one has learned. If the pandemic is this bad right now, proceed immediately with a plan because each passing hour the virus spread becomes worse. Good luck America. Happy Thanksgiving. At least the turkeys are happy this year.

Note Added Thursday, 11/12/20: The Worldometer data shows 161,541 new daily coronavirus cases. Dear God. The United States crossed 100K new daily cases less than two weeks ago and now on the way to 200K per day. Dear Lord. COVID-19 is an extremely contagious virus. America's daily new cases are rising in 44 states; the entire United States is a hot spot! US deaths are 1,190 today. Two days ago, 1,484 Americans died of covid the most since early August and April/May. Using the Keystone Model above, if the new cases peak now (which is probably unlikely), adding 28 days, projects that the active cases bell curve chart will not flatten, and then potentially roll over lower, until 12/10/20. Get used to living with the virus well into 2021. We're screwed.

Note Added Thursday, 11/12/20: Texas joins the 1 million virus cases club with California. Chicago, Illinois, is advising residents to stay at home since the hospitals are getting overrun. The Utah virus positivity test rate is above 23%. US hospitalizations are the highest ever. US healthcare workers are stressed-out with no relief in sight. New Jersey and other states are placing restrictions on bars and restaurants. Local and national sports games and events are being cancelled with more frequency. Parents are becoming more concerned about the virus spreading in schools and universities. Dr Tom Friedman says covid will be with the US "through 2021" and beyond. Dr Fauci is doubtful that the US will eradicate the virus. Fauci says the US will learn to maintain control over the virus that will become more "endemic" than "pandemic." Where's Donnie Trump? The president tweets that that he was cheated in the election. Corey Lewandowski, one of the presidents lackeys and involved in the legal fight to try and prove voter fraud, tests positive for coronavirus. The Whitehouse covid infection nest sickens another. This is two people involved with the legal team headed by Rudy Giuliani that are now sick with covid. Giuliani is no spring chicken at 76 years old and has been interacting with the infected people.

Note Added Thursday, 11/12/20: Dr Osterholm says if the US went into lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks, that would likely control the pandemic. Nobody is in the mood to hear this. Lives are already in shambles (not the wealthy elite or upper middle class) due to the weak economy with millions jobless. Osterholm provides input to Biden's virus task force so the republicans seize on the comments and shout that the democrats are going to shut down the country like they told everyone before the election. None of this baby stuff is helpful. The country is lost. Biden distances himself from the Osterholm remarks and afterwards, the doctor walks back the comments watering-down the need for a lockdown. As described above, the US remains in this vicious circle jerk of opening the economy, people become more sick, so the economy has to retract and businesses pull back, the sick count drops so the economy is reopened, people become more sick, so the economy...… over and over again. Who will provide leadership to pull America out of this tragic cycle of despair?

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/13/20, at 4:30 AM EST: Europe is living the covid nightmare. Italy, France, UK, Spain and Russia are in excess of 1 million cases. Mexico will join that infamous club shortly. The virus is out of control in Russia with today and three days ago printing the highest new daily cases ever above 21K. Ruskies are dropping like flies with deaths at the highest peak ever today with 439 Russians succumbing to covid. Conditions are worsening in Japan that initially handled the virus well. Canada is experiencing coronavirus outbreaks due to the Thanksgiving  Day celebrations. Part of the current US outbreak is being traced back to Halloween parities and events. The US left-leaning media says people involved with the current coronavirus task force say Trump refusing to concede will result in more COVID-19 deaths. No wonder Americans are confused and fed up with the disjointed and chaotic pandemic mess. Both political parties are spinning narratives to help their tribes with total disregard for what is good for the nation as a whole. The misinformation spewed by corrupt politicians, compromised media personalities and other television and internet talking heads results in a divided United States, a mentally, emotionally and physically sick, and exhausted, America. This is when an enemy would strike. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says, "We're not going back to the same economy." Powell says the future economy will be 'leveraged to technology' but unfortunately that does not help the rampant joblessness among the huddled masses. President Trump remains in hiding after the election refusing to concede to President-Elect Biden.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/13/20, at 8:00 AM EST: America will have to search its soul in 2021 and make a major decision on privacy, liberty and the rule of law. Vaccines will be available but if they are not welcomed by the public, what happens next? Worries increase that governments, yes, even the United States, may force citizens to get vaccinated. That will not end well if it is pursued. However, Americans may not be allowed to board airplanes, or trains, or busses, or even perhaps cross state borders, without proof that you took the vaccine; it becomes the Mark of the Beast and Bible prophecy is fulfilled. Most brush the idea aside but if the virus lingers on through 2021 with no end in sight, while the US economy is in recession if not depression, desperate governments, like desperate people, will do desperate things. China's dirtbag communist system rates its citizens on a social scale and that limits access to job opportunities and events and dictates your class in society; the Mark of the Beast already exists in this sick commie world. In China, to exist, you must kneel each day and kiss the CCP ring; Big Brother is watching. Vaccine drama will dominate 2021.For those of you that think the US government would never force vaccinations on people, news hits the wires from Ticketmaster, a company that sells tickets for all US concerts and sports events. Ticketmaster wants to be everyone's master developing a plan to not allow entry to events to anyone that does not show proof of taking the vaccine (the Mark of the Beast) or providing a negative test certification from the last three days before the event. It's already started.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/13/20, at 9:00 AM EST: Fauci becomes America's school marm saying that the "independent spirit" of the nation has gotten in the way of handling the pandemic and it is time to "do what you're told." Fauci preaches that the virus can be brought under control if Americans use masks, socially distance and wash their hands. Americans are trying to do the right thing but are confused at receiving different messages from different people for many months. There needs to be Federal coordination but Donnie is under the blankets in the Lincoln Bedroom, with only his orange head exposed, watching Fox News, and sipping a cup of hot cocoa he cradles in his small hands. Barron keeps telling dad that he will have to put on his big boy pants and face the music (concede). The coronavirus rages out of control.

Note Added Friday, 11/13/20, at 1:00 PM EST:  President Trump plans to speak later this afternoon from the Whitehouse concerning the coronavirus. Reporters anxiously await a chance to ask if he will concede the election loss and if he plans to cooperate with a smooth transition to President-Elect Biden. Former chief-of-staff John Kelly says delaying the presidential transition "could be catastrophic to our people regardless of who they voted for."  The US stock market rallies higher with the S&P 500 printing a new all-time record closing high at 3585. The Dow prints a new record closing high at 29480. Equities run higher on the vaccine hype and expectations for lots more fiscal (US government) and monetary (Federal Reserve; central banks) stimulus. The easy money pumps stocks higher which greatly rewards the wealthy class as it has for a solid 11-1/2 years (since QE 1 was implemented to save the stock market and protect the rich in March 2009). The upbeat news from Pfizer, and expected equally happy mRNA vaccine news from Moderna next week, drives stocks higher into the weekend. The wealthy class dances with glee at the higher stock prices while the huddled masses struggle with structural unemployment and the escalating pandemic. The class war begins.

Note Added Friday, 11/13/20, at 4:25 PM EST:  Trump begins speaking from the Rose Garden taking a victory lap for the vaccine progress under Operation Warp Speed. Pfizer is touted as a great success and Trump takes a swipe at the CEO for saying the vaccine development was not part of Operation Warp Speed. Trump says the CEO made an "unfortunate misrepresentation....an unfortunate mistake" because the pharmaceutical giant was given $1.9 billion. Trump is incorrect. Pfizer did not take any government funds in developing its vaccine but did take $1.9 billion for future manufacturing and distribution of the vaccine. Trump wants to claim credit for the vaccine success but Pfizer did that on their own with their own money. The other pharma and biotech companies are taking money for vaccine development. The president says vaccines will be available to the general public by April. The sickest patients, those at high risk first responders and healthcare workers will receive the vaccine first. Trump says the vaccine will be distributed to all states except New York singling out Cuomo for convening his own panel to approve the vaccine. This baby political stuff could have been handled in the back rooms but the US government is dysfunctional. Trump is going to want to settle a lot of scores before he leaves office. Trump is not displaying his typical swagger. His hair is gray. Is it dyed gray or is that the natural color and he has been dying it blonde all these years? Concerning coronavirus, the president says he expects "the numbers to go down quickly." What?! Trump does not address the current situation with the pandemic escalating out of control. He's out of touch. The president continues talking and says 'quickly, in a manner of months'. Only in Donnie's brain does the word quickly mean months and months of time. In Trump speak, the numbers will go down quickly which means they will go down over several months. Trump unequivocally states, "This administration will not go, under any circumstances, to a lockdown." Trump almost trips up acknowledging Biden as the next president and administration, but instead says, "who knows which administration it will be? I guess time will tell." He keeps playing the baby concession game. Dr Moncef Slaoui, scientific head of Operation Warp Speed, discusses the vaccines. General Gustave Perna, chief operating officer of the operation, discusses logistics and says the states will have to come up with vaccine distribution plans. Alex Azar, HHS Secretary Alex Azar speaks shamelessly praising the president; he obviously received instructions to perform the public Trump stroking. Everyone wants to hear from the president on other matters and not listen to the butt-kisser's. Vice President Pence speaks next at 4:53 PM. Mikey praises Trump and says, "It takes a visionary to start Operation Warp Speed." You can always count on Pence to kneel and lick Trump's shoes. Pence proclaims that all PPE and medical equipment needs are met for every single patient and hospital across America for all of this year. Pence decrees, "Help is on the way, right around the corner." There's that 'round the corner' phrase again only Pence is saying it instead of Trump. Again, Trump and Pence are tone deaf; people want to hear what is the plan for right now, this minute, as the virus spirals out of control. Trump thanks Pence for his efforts and says, "Thank you everybody. Thank you very much." With that, the president walks back to the Oval Office with Pence trailing one step behind. Trump disappoints everyone and does not take any questions. That is because he knows the first question will be asking why he will not concede.

Note Added Friday, 11/13/20, at 7:00 PM EST:  The US economy will take a hit into year-end and early next year due to the accelerating virus outbreak. Trump has failed on the coronavirus testing. The president had months to set up rapid testing which will help children and young people returning to schools and universities as well as adults trying to physically return to their jobs, but America falls short. The pandemic remains a mess and it is on President Trump's watch. Italy reports 40,902 new virus cases another record.

Note Added Friday Evening, 11/13/20, at 8:00 PM EST:  An alarming 130 secret service agents are in quarantine after testing positive for covid or they have been around the infected individuals. The agents have become ill from exposure at the coronavirus-infected Whitehouse nest or on the road at the Trump campaign rallies. It's funny; people become ill because they had to feed the president's ego. That's why Trump lost the election; his inept management of the pandemic. All of the president's eggs were always in the vaccine basket. Secret service agents also became sick after the president's joy ride to wave to supporters when he was supposed to be in the hospital room recovering from the virus. Trump placed ego ahead of safety for the people sworn to protect him. Pennsylvania does not plan a recount. Trump is losing his voting challenges in the courts in Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Note Added Saturday, 11/14/20, at 2:00 AM EST:  Johns-Hopkins reports 153,496 new coronavirus cases on Friday the 13th another record. Worldometer reports 183,527 new covid cases yesterday. The number takes your breath away; 184K Americans becoming sick with covid every day. Dear Lord. 19 states are at record coronavirus hospitalizations. 68K people are hospitalized in the US for covid. Trump's pandemic dysfunction continues since he brags about vaccines available to the general public by April, but does not provide direction or comments on the escalating coronavirus outbreak happening in real-time. The acceleration of the pandemic to the worst numbers yet proves Trump's failure at handling the virus. America, you're on your own. Very soon, every American will know someone who is infected with covid, or who has died from the virus, even white folks. The blacks have been infected with covid at twice the rate of whites over the last months. Oregon imposes strict limits on businesses, retail stores, fitness centers and places of worship to try and stop the accelerating spread of COVID-19. Americans will probably descend into the March-May hoarding mindset this weekend as they realize the pandemic is worsening. Store shelves will be emptied. Paper towels and toilet paper do not have a chance.

Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 11/14/20:  The "Million MAGA March," as it is dubbed, in front of the Whitehouse and on Washington, DC, streets, is well-attended by thousands of Trump supporters. President Trump was rumored to speak at the event but instead his motorcade drives through part of the crowd on the way to his Virginia golf club. Trump waves to the fans through the sealed vehicle window looking like royalty waving to his most loyal subjects. Trump had to be laughing his orange flabby butt off on the golf course thinking about all those folks in Washington, DC, supporting him while he blew them off and is golfing instead. That's hilarious. The Washington crowd is the inverse of the Biden crowd on the prior weekend when the president-elect sealed the electoral college victory (not according to Trump). 90% of the Trump crowd is not wearing masks as compared to the week before when 90% of the Biden crowd were wearing masks. The United States is a divided nation after 12 years of divisive politics by Obama and Trump.

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