By K E Stone (Keystone)
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two
secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan (most think there is one lab but there are
actually two), has infected nearly 55 million people around the world killing over
1.3 million souls. Lay those deaths at Dictator Xi’s feet; he is responsible. The
CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet. 38
million people have recovered (70%; 7 in 10 people in the world that had covid
have recovered).
The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has
attacked and sickened 11.4 million Americans (3.5% of the 330 million US
population; 1 in every 29 US citizens have been infected with COVID-19), the
highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 252 million United
States citizens. That is a lot of moms and dads, grandmothers and grandfathers,
daughters and sons, neighbors, minorities and disadvantaged folks; over a
quarter-of-million Americans dead from the China Virus. Nearly 7 million Americans
have recovered (61%; 3 out of every 5 Americans that had covid have recovered).
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth
(21%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19%) of the deaths.
China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting
its own economy. The communist nation is relying on its 1.4 billion population
to drive its domestic economy while the rest of the world cleans up Dictator
Xi’s filthy virus mess. China, specifically the CCP, owes the world restitution
for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 11.4 million followed by India (8.8 million), Brazil (5.9), France
(2.0), Russia (1.9), Spain (1.5), UK (1.4), Argentina (1.3), Colombia (1.2), Italy
(1.2), Mexico (1.0), Peru (937K), Germany (802K), Iran (762K), South Africa
(751K), Poland (713K), Belgium (536K),
Ukraine (536K), Chile (531K), Iraq (519K), and Indonesia is up to 467K total
covid cases. Iran worsens leapfrogging South Africa. France leapfrogs Russia on
the list (becomes worse). The UK, Italy, Germany and Belgium each jump two
spots higher on the list with the pandemic worsening across Europe. Poland
jumps three spots on the list verifying the tragic toll on its citizens
recently. Ukraine moves two spots higher on the list.
The Brit’s may need to turn away the fish and chips at the
pub and instead stay home until the acceleration of the virus subsides.
Likewise, to halt the spread of coronavirus, the German’s may need to forego
the sauerkraut and beerski’s at the year-long Oktoberfest party. The French
will have to reduce their intake of baguette, wine and cigarettes at the local
café and the Italians must postpone all large wine and spaghetti parties.
Mexico joins the infamous 1 million-plus total cases club
that now has 11 depressed members. Peru will be over 1 million total cases in
three weeks which will make the list an even dozen. There are 20 countries that
have over 500,000 total coronavirus cases.
The US is in a third wave. The new peak in new cases on 11/13/20
is used to target the peak in active cases for 12/11/20 which represents the maximum
strain on healthcare workers and medical equipment). The simple Keystone Model
is described below and uses a 28-day period between the peak in new daily cases
and the peak in the active cases. America’s next chance to flatten the active
cases bell curve chart is mid-December.
The US daily new cases chart shown above highlights the
11/13/20 all-time record high cases for the pandemic at 188K. The 7-day moving
average has gone parabolic (vertical; exponential). The daily new cases pull
back the last couple days so the 7-day MA will likely spike sharply downward in
a day or two. If the daily new cases can flatten and head lower from here, the
active cases chart will flatten out in mid-December. If the new daily cases
continue increasing and God forbid, they move above 200K per day, America is
screwed.
The US active cases chart show above is the key chart for
‘flattening the curve’ and creating the ‘bell-shaped curve’. The blue line
shows the current trajectory of the active cases rising during the first wave
at a gentle slope but more sharply vertical during the second wave and now parabolic
on the third wave. The orange dotted lines show that for each time the active
cases chart started flattening and potentially rolling over to create the bell
shape, and verify that the virus was being defeated, the pandemic instead
accelerated, sending the active cases chart higher, smacking and slapping
Americans in the face each day, disrupting their lives and creating fear of
sickness and death. If you are at peace with yourself, you will never fear
death.
Humans enjoy close contact with each other sharing laughs,
stories, music and memories. The pandemic strips that enjoyment from all our
lives. The blue dotted line in the active cases chart is the current path of
the pandemic with the chart peaking and flattening out on 12/11/20 and then
rolling over lower to create the bell shape. The virus is going to be with us
into next year no doubt about that. As long as the daily new cases do not
exceed that horrific 188K number, the blue dotted-line will become reality,
however, if the daily new cases ratchet higher, perhaps over 200K per day, that
will create the red dotted-line which represents pain, misery and disrupted
lives for months to come. President Trump says vaccines will be available to
patients and healthcare workers by the end of the year and early 2021 while
shots may be available to the general public in April 2021 and later.
The US deaths chart above continues worsening. The latest
projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is 320K
US deaths by 1/1/21 and 439K dead by 3/1/21. The IHME says if Americans became
more diligent and focused on mask-wearing and social distancing, the projections
could be reduced significantly. Keystone curve-fits the ongoing trajectory of
the US death curve and projects 350K dead by 3/1/21 and hopefully a leveling
off afterwards.
The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating
covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus,
with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on
the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these
days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the
deaths will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher. Dr
Frieden says America can reach 2,000 deaths per day and he urges caution for
Thanksgiving.
Folks 69 years and older remain the most susceptible to covid
especially those with diabetes and respiratory illnesses. The 1918 Spanish Flu
took 675K lives in the United States. Will the 2019 Chinese Flu ever approach
that number or sadly exceed it? America is 37% of the way there. Coronavirus
has created one-third of the deaths of the 1918 Spanish Flu, and the count
continues higher. No doubt the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, is the worst
pandemic in the United States in over 100 years.
The Japan daily new cases chart is shown above. The daily
cases are at record levels the last couple days with only one prior day,
8/3/20, higher. Remember when Australia, South Korea and Japan were touted as
the countries doing the best job at defeating the virus? Not anymore. Australia
is hanging in there although news reports over the last day say outbreaks are
occurring in the south again. Japan and South Korea are in third waves now. These
two nations were the shining stars at battling coronavirus but now are
schlumping around with other countries in the covid quagmire. Japan and South
Korea show increases in the daily new cases as well as active cases charts. The
pandemic is a mess all over the globe, except where the filthy disease started;
China.
The Sweden daily new cases chart is shown above. Sweden was
in the news for several months concerning their covid response plan that
avoided lockdowns, however, the Swedes are in the covid soup like everyone else
these days with new cases spiking to the highest ever on 11/11/20. Sweden is
discussed more below after the nation list.
Europe and North America are mired in the coronavirus
pandemic. The misery for America is ramping up currently and citizens sense the
trouble since the store parking lots are packed this weekend. People are
developing the hoarding mentality again like earlier in the year. Supplies are
disappearing off store shelves forcing merchants to limit the number of
purchases.
Walmart, Dollar General, Kroger, Wegmans, Publix and many
others are reinstating limits on key items like hand sanitizer, paper towels
and toilet paper. Walmart begins counting customers in stores to limit the
people to about five customers per 1,000 square footage which equates to about
20% capacity. The medical community is encouraging Americans to avoid crowds on
Thanksgiving and instead celebrate only with your immediate family. Retailers
are noticing customers buying smaller bundles of items for smaller dinner
parties. Domestic turkeys dance with glee hoping that their lives will be
spared this year since families may opt for eating a small chicken instead.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more
data and information are available to push the story forward. This is Article 25
in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This
twenty-fifth article is published on Sunday, 11/15/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic,
the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning in March
2020 and sooner, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad. This is
not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion
occurring and recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening
the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States;
Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave
Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally
Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19
Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in
Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell
Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a
Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,
Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the
Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K
Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;
Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes
in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,
Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress
Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;
AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21
published on 10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to
Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;
Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases
Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,
Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including
US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,
Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into
COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely
Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on
10/14/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent
days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a
couple days.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any
country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent
the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors
the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date
of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active
case bell curve will then peak in 1 to 4 weeks later depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for
communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China,
since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in
their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan
are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave
(although Japan and South Korea are descending into a third wave covid quagmire
right now and the jury is out if either can resolve the latest outbreak in the
11-day period).
If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like
the US and many other Western nations, non-authoritarian, the active cases will
peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to
the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when
the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell
curve where the strain on the medical systems and personnel is at a peak).
Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to control
a pandemic. Interestingly, Russia President Putin must be an incompetent
dictator since the pandemic is spinning out of control. Perhaps he wants to
trim the elderly populations so they are less of a burden on the Ruskie
government.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple
weeks after the new cases increase (which makes the days and few weeks ahead
appear ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain
under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the
worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare
system. Other semi-recovered patients
are sent home or to other medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted
in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system.
Some patients continue therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this
continues to require medical staff and supplies.
The crisis America faces in the days ahead is the dwindling
healthcare workforce. Many healthcare workers have become sick with covid, and
many have died. Hospitals are running at capacity in several states and will
only become more strained into Thanksgiving. Lack of beds is one problem but a
more important issue is the lack of medical staff available in America. Perhaps
nursing students will have to be pressed into duty to perform some of the more
mundane hospital tasks so the experienced nurses can focus on the seriously-ill
patients, a trial by fire for the would-be nurses, if you will. Retired nurses
have to worry about contracting the virus so even if they want to help it is
difficult to do so.
Time will tell if Biden’s thin frame can grab the covid bull
by the horns and wrestle it to the ground but the country is out of time.
America needs to start thinking outside the box, to use a worn-out cliché,
because Trump sure is not getting the job done. Donnie sits back each day
admiring all his eggs in the vaccine basket while coronavirus spirals out of
control in the near-term. Americans are anxious and starting to hoard again.
The United States needs leadership. Trump is golfing.
The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the
active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The
term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US
active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations,
deaths or any other virus charts. It is a shame that the Whitehouse virus task
force, politicians, health officials, media, doctors and scientists cannot
explain these concepts to the general public.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where
28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like
now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.
Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is now
11/13/20 rising exponentially. America is in a third wave of the virus, or
third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Adding 28 days to 11/13/20
is a target date of 12/11/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and
hopefully begin to roll it over lower to create the bell shape. This date is
pushed forward if the new cases keep printing new highs. The increase in new
cases has to decrease before there is any hope that the medical systems and
personnel will receive relief about four weeks in the future.
A somber Thanksgiving is ahead on 11/26/20. Doctors and
scientists are telling folks to cancel their holiday plans and instead try to
stay isolated to help tamp down this third wave plaguing America. Thanksgiving
is going to be depressing; you are going to see ugly things (covid) on the
television screen. The US may not flatten the active cases curve until
mid-December, as per the Keystone Model, so Christmas is already not looking
all that great either. Ditto New Years. By the end of the year, everyone, not
just the poor folks and those of color, will know a family member, friend,
relative, or guy down the street, that has died from covid.
The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India, Brazil
(but big spike in new cases on 11/11/20), Colombia (but new cases are
elevated), Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar,
Panama (but new cases elevated), Philippines (data is messy), Egypt (may be
trouble ahead), Kuwait (may be trouble ahead), Oman, Guatemala, China (the
bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Australia, Venezuela,
Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic data), Israel,
Iraq (trying to bend over its active cases curve but it remains shaky), UAE
(data is problematic virus is likely worsening), Uzbekistan, Ethiopia (may be
trouble ahead), Nepal, Argentina, Switzerland, Czechia and Lebanon. The last
five nations shown appear on the happy list this week for the first time in a
while but will need ongoing monitoring to see if they fall apart again. For
now, all the countries listed in this paragraph are doing better at handling
the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may
or may not be reporting truthfully).
It is disheartening to see South Korea and Japan slip off
the happy list above and fall back down into the covid sad list of nations
below. These two countries, with a cooperative and virus-hardened population
that helps tamp down the virus quickly and efficiently, are now in big trouble
with third waves underway. South Korea’s new cases are the highest since
September. A mentioned above, time will tell if South Korea and Japan can roll
the active cases bell curve chart over in 11 days, or not.
Australia and New Zealand have to serve as the best examples
for handling the pandemic. China also has control over the virus but screw them
since they are the bioterrorists that created this global coronavirus pandemic
that has murdered a quarter-of-a-million Americans. Taiwan is an excellent
shining example of handling the virus but in fairness, it is easier to control
an outbreak as an island nation.
The Dominican Republic falls-off the list above and begins
its second wave. Indonesia reports a tragic spike in new cases the highest ever
over the last two days and begins a second wave. The charts are looking
terrible for so many nations. Coronavirus is highly contagious. The data is
starting to look so depressing that the end game may be when everyone on the
planet contracts covid. Of course, by the time herd immunity would occur,
millions of people would be in caskets.
The magic range for herd immunity is 60% to 80% the higher
the better. For the US, right now, wetting the index finger and holding it in
the air, there may be about 10% that have had covid, or had it without knowing
they had it, and the vaccines are expected to cover at least about 50%
depending on how well the shots are received by the public, the US remains in
shaky territory, even at the April 2021 mark when most of the general
population should have access to a vaccine. Covid may be around well into 2022.
Heaven forbid if America is going to go full-fledged 1984
(George Orwell) and force citizens to take the vaccine to boost the participation
level; that will surely launch a civil war in America. Too many folks are
looking at coronavirus with rose-colored glasses. This covid nightmare will
play out longer than anyone expects and require moral, ethical and social
decisions that will impact American’s liberty, freedom, and its psyche,
forever.
In the days ahead, due to the increasing load of covid
patients, hospitals may have to ration care and begin deciding who lives, and who
dies. Uncle Ted, Aunt Rosalee or Brother Shaq, or even beloved grandma, may be
the body lying on that gurney in the hospital hallway, or worse, staged by the
front door next to the cigarette receptacle, coughing up phlegm, gasping for
life’s precious breath, praying that someone can provide help.
The 37 worst global hotspots, that have not yet flattened
the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems),
based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards the bottom of
the list are in the heat of the covid battle currently. China’s deadly coronavirus
is murdering thousands of innocent souls each day.
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 4/10, 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; Ireland has failed to flatten the active cases
curve in the 11-day time frame like the first wave so now it is a 28-day
country as per the Keystone Model; Ireland is the first country that handled
the virus quickly early in the year, but cannot repeat their success for the
current second wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/8/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked; data is sloppy)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/23/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/13/20)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest since September)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever this month)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever at 188K!!!)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases days ever are 8/3/20 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases days are 8/3/20 and 11/14/)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever this month)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever this month)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases days are 8/3/20 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/20/20 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in November)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/8 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Ireland has the dubious distinction of being the first nation that originally handled the virus quickly and efficiently (11-day average between the peak in the new cases chart and peak in the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model) but cannot stop the current second wave in the same time frame now slipping into the range of other nations that are having difficulties handling the virus (28-day average between the peak in the new cases chart and the peak in the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model).
Conditions in South Korea and Japan are deteriorating so it
will be interesting to see if they can handle the latest wave quickly, like in
the springtime, or not. Australia maintains a flat profile for its daily new
cases and active cases charts so it is one of the rare examples of success in
fighting covid. Southern Australia, however, is experiencing five flare-ups so
time will tell if the land down under maintains their happy path forward. China
and Taiwan have handled the virus well. Ditto Singapore.
Europe remains a mess although Poland and Czechia improve
slightly in the big picture (from terrible to bad). Poland reports record
deaths yesterday. Spain receives a spike in new cases that hints the situation
is going from bad to worse. Conditions in Croatia may be deteriorating. Austria
is imposing further lockdown measures as hospitalizations increase. Greece is
closing primary schools and nurseries. Italy is requiring additional regions to
go into lockdown as the virus worsens.
Remember the controversy surrounding Sweden that did not
mandate a lockdown earlier this year instead favoring a herd immunity approach?
Many Swedes have chosen to mask-up and social distance by their own accord so
the non-mandate was never a true test of what would happen if a country did not
lockdown in any way. After many months, Sweden is in the same pickle as all the
other European nations experiencing a record spike in new cases over the last
few days. Reference the chart above.
Europe is doing everything it can to keep schools open.
European nations are tightening restrictions on citizens to try and stop the
spread of the contagious killer. Resistance to lockdowns are increasing across
the continent. Anti-lockdown demonstrations result in violence in Frankfurt,
Germany. Protesters in an anti-mask group, that were required to wear masks if
they demonstrated, face-off against protesters in an anti-anti-mask group (pro
mask). It’s ridiculous. Riot police step in to break up both groups with water
cannons. The natives are restless.
In Armenia, a fire in a covid ward of a hospital takes
lives. The fire was probably caused by one of those cheap, faulty, poor-quality
Ruskie ventilators that are catching fire. You get what you pay for. Mexico
sadly crosses the 1 million total cases milestone as explained above.
Indonesia, that seemed to have a handle on things for a few weeks, are now
slipping down the covid rabbit hole again.
Russia and Ukraine are in horrible shape the worst in the
world. Hey Dictator Putin, are you still going to kiss Dictator Xi’s butt after
China releases the covid bioterrorism murdering-off your Russian people? Putin
is going to have his hands full in the coming days; the Ruskies are dropping
like flies.
For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below
with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain
on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The worst 20 states for total
virus cases, from highest to lowest, are Texas the worst state, California,
then Florida is the third worst state, followed by New York, Illinois, Georgia,
North Carolina, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
Missouri, Indiana, Minnesota, Alabama, Louisiana and Virginia. Wisconsin jumps
three spots on the list (worsening). Arizona and Alabama each drop two spots on
the list improving by a hair.
During the prior months, several states were successful at
flattening the curve and creating the bell shape on the active cases chart, but
these states have now succumbed to the dark side again with covid infections rising
and their active cases curves curling upwards for another wave. A week ago,
Georgia and Louisiana were the only two states that had a dropping active cases
curve but now they are back in the covid soup again with new cases rising and
the active cases starting to move higher.
Below is a listing of all 50 US states that have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active
cases rise with another wave. The pandemic spreads from 35 troubled states in
the list below to all 50 states, the entire nation, in only 54 days. Trump
addresses the pandemic in the long-term with vaccines but he forgot about the
short-term. Conditions are deteriorating into Thanksgiving. America is starting
to freak-out again like the springtime.
The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their
new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all of America is in the
same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs. Anincrease in new
cases lead to higher active cases and hospitalizations which then lead to more
deaths. The United States is following Europe’s lead into COVID-19 Hell.
Hawaii (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since Sept)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/5/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is choppy and messy)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of third wave)
12/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/6 and 11/12/20)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is messy)
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is problematic)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 7/26, 8/2 and 11/13/20)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave thus far)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of second wave)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/13/20)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in July and November)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of second wave 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since April peaks)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is problematic)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (data is messy)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
The ‘highest new cases ever’ notations for each state are jaw-dropping and proof positive that the Trump administration blew the handling of the pandemic bigtime. 40 states are reporting the highest daily new cases ever. The other 10 are at record numbers of daily new cases for the current wave. 25 states report record hospitalizations. America is screwed and citizens sense the trouble ahead so the hoarding begins. Will stress and panic raise their ugly heads?
Texas is the first state to pass 1 million total cases and
does this before California that has a far larger population. Mobile morgues,
which are refrigerated tractor trailer trucks that will temporarily house dead
bodies, pull into El Paso, Texas, where they are dropping like flies. In Los
Angeles, the large testing facility at Dodger Stadium remains busy servicing
from 700 to 1K people per day.
A second wave is now hitting Navajo Nation. The Native
Americans were walloped hard early in the year but then kept infections at bay
during the summer. Unfortunately, the situation takes a turn for the worse
again with new cases rising in Navajo Nation. New cases are also rising in
Puerto Rico and Guam. It seems everywhere you look there is a problem.
Colorado Governor Polis says people planning to meet in
large groups over the Thanksgiving Day and weekend are playing Russian roulette
with their lives and the lives of others. Polis says people not quarantining for
two weeks before they meet relatives on the holiday are holding “a loaded
pistol to grandma’s head.” He is trying to stop the coronavirus outbreak in the
Rocky Mountains and is clearly worried about the path ahead. He says, “That’s
where we are.” Anyone wanting to join others in a Thanksgiving Day celebration should
have started quarantining two days ago. Few are likely following these
guidelines. People in Europe and North America are suffering pandemic fatigue
with some thinking out loud about getting the virus instead of living a
depressing zombie existence. Important philosophical and social questions will
require answers going forward.
New York Governor Cuomo and five other northeast states
convene an emergency meeting to coordinate their coronavirus pandemic response.
New York may shut down schools starting tomorrow. The pandemic is a complete
mess. Trump should try and right the covid ship during his last 66 days at the
helm, otherwise, the USS Coronavirus is going to hit a reef.
For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the
active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days
to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active
cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed
the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date,
that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project
the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The
states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare
workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and
medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Be
patient with these folks since most of them are likely burned-out.
“Project Warp Speed” continues to speedily develop a
vaccine. The positive Pfizer news with the new mRNA vaccine sent the US stock
market to all-time record highs. Moderna is expected to release information
this week on its mRNA vaccine and analysts are expecting more happy news like
Pfizer. Both companies are expected to receive emergency use approval by the
end of the year. Officials are saying the general public may not be in line for
the vaccine until Q2 and Q3 of next year. Healthcare workers, patients, first
responders and nursing home workers and patients will receive vaccinations
before anyone else.
The fiscal stimulus bill remains up in the air. Millions of
Americans cannot pay their bills so the economic problems and hardships will be
stacking-up going forward. The upper middle class and elite privileged class
have skated through the covid mess this year effortlessly but the huddled
masses, the lower middle class, poor, disadvantaged and people of color have
been royally screwed. These folks work the jobs in the industries that are
locked down. If they do work, they are at high risk for exposure to covid. The
elite politicians that control the crony capitalism system in America, that dine
on the finest cuisine and sleep on satin sheets each evening, take their time
at providing fiscal stimulus for poor, disadvantaged and lower middle-class families
in dire straits, many facing eviction.
54 million Americans are currently suffering through food
insecurity. At the southwestern Pennsylvania food banks, we see the need
stronger than at anytime in recent years. People comment that they never
thought they would ever be in a food line but they are grateful that at least
someone shows that they care.
The baby game of President Trump refusing to concede the
election that occurred almost two weeks ago is getting old. Cry Baby Donnie
stirs up demonstrators in Washington, DC, last evening, which results in
violence, and then he blames the left-leaning factions for the mayhem. Trump is
preventing a smooth transition for the Biden administration which is a first in
the history of the United States. Trump want to go into the history books as a
sore loser. By refusing to concede and at the same time obstruct Biden’s entry
into government, the president stacks-up all his accomplishments on the Oval
Office carpet, stands over the sizable pile, straddles the documents, squats,
and takes a dump on it all. Trump’s behavior over the last week soils his legacy
but he must be more concerned about making money over the coming years and
handling his financial and legal problems.
Trump is likely brainstorming ways to monetize the 72
million people that voted for him. The US is controlled by two competing
political tribes and the politicians, corporate executives and other leaders
and officials pick a side, and pledge allegiance to that tribe above the
country. President-Elect Biden is developing his own mass distribution plan for
vaccines and other treatments since Trump will not provide access to the key information
as part of the transition of power.
Biden is planning to meet with the vaccine makers in the
days ahead. He says a complete lockdown like early in the year is an option
only to be used as a last resort. The president-elect is finalizing details on
his new COVID-19 plan; however, President Trump remains president and in
control of the covid response until 1/20/21 when Biden will take over. Trump
may take action against China and/or Iran before he leaves office in 66 days.
Donnie is on the golf course thinking about it.
The coronavirus news continues at a fast pace. UK PM Johnson
self-isolates after he is potentially exposed to coronavirus. Johnson was
deathly sick a few months ago with covid and is lucky he did not croak.
In the states, more stores are limiting the quantities of
purchases as the population begins hoarding again like earlier in the year. The
US faces tough sledding ahead, into the winter months, as the pandemic rages
out of control. Trump plays several rounds of golf over the last few days
perhaps more focused on his own future than the nation’s. Perhaps that is why
he lost.
Note Added Monday Morning, 11/16/20, at 6:00 AM EST: US
stock futures are up about +1% continuing higher off all-time record highs on
the happy vaccine talk from Pfizer. Analysts and traders expect more happiness
from Moderna this week that is using similar mRNA vaccine technology to
Pfizer’s. MRNA stock jumps over +4% in the pre-market as investors salivate
over potential positive vaccine news. PFE gains +2%. BNTX +3%. JNJ +2%. BioNTech
is in partnership with Pfizer and CEO Sahin proclaims that the vaccines and
treatment could return life to normal next winter but “this winter will be
hard.” Dr Fauci compares the presidential transitioning period to “passing a
baton in a race” and hopes that President-Elect Biden will begin receiving
coronavirus task force information.
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