Monday, November 16, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/15/20; US Reports 188K Daily New Cases Highest Ever; 40 US States Report Highest Daily New Cases Ever; US Coronavirus Cases Top 11 Million and Deaths Exceed 251K; 29 Worst Countries Include Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Turkey, United States, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea; Europe and North America in Various Lockdown Stages; Global Coronavirus Cases Near 55 Million and Deaths Exceed 1.3 Million; President ‘Sore Loser’ Trump Refuses to Concede to President-Elect Biden Almost 2 Weeks After Election Threatening the Transition of Power and New US COVID-19 Response Plan; Medical Staff Shortages; Americans Begin Hoarding Again; CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY; US Coronavirus Cases Exceed 12 Million; US Reports 192K Daily New Cases Highest Ever; US REPORTS OVER 204K DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US DEATHS EXCEED 260K; US DEATHS TOP 2K IN 1 DAY; Coronavirus Article 25







By K E Stone (Keystone)

China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan (most think there is one lab but there are actually two), has infected nearly 55 million people around the world killing over 1.3 million souls. Lay those deaths at Dictator Xi’s feet; he is responsible. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet. 38 million people have recovered (70%; 7 in 10 people in the world that had covid have recovered).

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 11.4 million Americans (3.5% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 29 US citizens have been infected with COVID-19), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 252 million United States citizens. That is a lot of moms and dads, grandmothers and grandfathers, daughters and sons, neighbors, minorities and disadvantaged folks; over a quarter-of-million Americans dead from the China Virus. Nearly 7 million Americans have recovered (61%; 3 out of every 5 Americans that had covid have recovered).

The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the United States. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (21%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting its own economy. The communist nation is relying on its 1.4 billion population to drive its domestic economy while the rest of the world cleans up Dictator Xi’s filthy virus mess. China, specifically the CCP, owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at 11.4 million followed by India (8.8 million), Brazil (5.9), France (2.0), Russia (1.9), Spain (1.5), UK (1.4), Argentina (1.3), Colombia (1.2), Italy (1.2), Mexico (1.0), Peru (937K), Germany (802K), Iran (762K), South Africa (751K),  Poland (713K), Belgium (536K), Ukraine (536K), Chile (531K), Iraq (519K), and Indonesia is up to 467K total covid cases. Iran worsens leapfrogging South Africa. France leapfrogs Russia on the list (becomes worse). The UK, Italy, Germany and Belgium each jump two spots higher on the list with the pandemic worsening across Europe. Poland jumps three spots on the list verifying the tragic toll on its citizens recently. Ukraine moves two spots higher on the list.

The Brit’s may need to turn away the fish and chips at the pub and instead stay home until the acceleration of the virus subsides. Likewise, to halt the spread of coronavirus, the German’s may need to forego the sauerkraut and beerski’s at the year-long Oktoberfest party. The French will have to reduce their intake of baguette, wine and cigarettes at the local café and the Italians must postpone all large wine and spaghetti parties.

Mexico joins the infamous 1 million-plus total cases club that now has 11 depressed members. Peru will be over 1 million total cases in three weeks which will make the list an even dozen. There are 20 countries that have over 500,000 total coronavirus cases.

The US is in a third wave. The new peak in new cases on 11/13/20 is used to target the peak in active cases for 12/11/20 which represents the maximum strain on healthcare workers and medical equipment). The simple Keystone Model is described below and uses a 28-day period between the peak in new daily cases and the peak in the active cases. America’s next chance to flatten the active cases bell curve chart is mid-December.

The US daily new cases chart shown above highlights the 11/13/20 all-time record high cases for the pandemic at 188K. The 7-day moving average has gone parabolic (vertical; exponential). The daily new cases pull back the last couple days so the 7-day MA will likely spike sharply downward in a day or two. If the daily new cases can flatten and head lower from here, the active cases chart will flatten out in mid-December. If the new daily cases continue increasing and God forbid, they move above 200K per day, America is screwed.

The US active cases chart show above is the key chart for ‘flattening the curve’ and creating the ‘bell-shaped curve’. The blue line shows the current trajectory of the active cases rising during the first wave at a gentle slope but more sharply vertical during the second wave and now parabolic on the third wave. The orange dotted lines show that for each time the active cases chart started flattening and potentially rolling over to create the bell shape, and verify that the virus was being defeated, the pandemic instead accelerated, sending the active cases chart higher, smacking and slapping Americans in the face each day, disrupting their lives and creating fear of sickness and death. If you are at peace with yourself, you will never fear death.

Humans enjoy close contact with each other sharing laughs, stories, music and memories. The pandemic strips that enjoyment from all our lives. The blue dotted line in the active cases chart is the current path of the pandemic with the chart peaking and flattening out on 12/11/20 and then rolling over lower to create the bell shape. The virus is going to be with us into next year no doubt about that. As long as the daily new cases do not exceed that horrific 188K number, the blue dotted-line will become reality, however, if the daily new cases ratchet higher, perhaps over 200K per day, that will create the red dotted-line which represents pain, misery and disrupted lives for months to come. President Trump says vaccines will be available to patients and healthcare workers by the end of the year and early 2021 while shots may be available to the general public in April 2021 and later.

The US deaths chart above continues worsening. The latest projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is 320K US deaths by 1/1/21 and 439K dead by 3/1/21. The IHME says if Americans became more diligent and focused on mask-wearing and social distancing, the projections could be reduced significantly. Keystone curve-fits the ongoing trajectory of the US death curve and projects 350K dead by 3/1/21 and hopefully a leveling off afterwards.

The healthcare professionals know a lot more about treating covid now than months prior. Many older folks most susceptible to the virus, with preexisting conditions, have croaked. Vaccines and other treatments are on the way in 2021. Young people are becoming proportionally more infected these days and they tend to remain asymptomatic and recover faster. Perhaps the deaths will trail-off for these reasons rather than accelerate higher. Dr Frieden says America can reach 2,000 deaths per day and he urges caution for Thanksgiving.

Folks 69 years and older remain the most susceptible to covid especially those with diabetes and respiratory illnesses. The 1918 Spanish Flu took 675K lives in the United States. Will the 2019 Chinese Flu ever approach that number or sadly exceed it? America is 37% of the way there. Coronavirus has created one-third of the deaths of the 1918 Spanish Flu, and the count continues higher. No doubt the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, is the worst pandemic in the United States in over 100 years.

The Japan daily new cases chart is shown above. The daily cases are at record levels the last couple days with only one prior day, 8/3/20, higher. Remember when Australia, South Korea and Japan were touted as the countries doing the best job at defeating the virus? Not anymore. Australia is hanging in there although news reports over the last day say outbreaks are occurring in the south again. Japan and South Korea are in third waves now. These two nations were the shining stars at battling coronavirus but now are schlumping around with other countries in the covid quagmire. Japan and South Korea show increases in the daily new cases as well as active cases charts. The pandemic is a mess all over the globe, except where the filthy disease started; China.

The Sweden daily new cases chart is shown above. Sweden was in the news for several months concerning their covid response plan that avoided lockdowns, however, the Swedes are in the covid soup like everyone else these days with new cases spiking to the highest ever on 11/11/20. Sweden is discussed more below after the nation list.

Europe and North America are mired in the coronavirus pandemic. The misery for America is ramping up currently and citizens sense the trouble since the store parking lots are packed this weekend. People are developing the hoarding mentality again like earlier in the year. Supplies are disappearing off store shelves forcing merchants to limit the number of purchases.

Walmart, Dollar General, Kroger, Wegmans, Publix and many others are reinstating limits on key items like hand sanitizer, paper towels and toilet paper. Walmart begins counting customers in stores to limit the people to about five customers per 1,000 square footage which equates to about 20% capacity. The medical community is encouraging Americans to avoid crowds on Thanksgiving and instead celebrate only with your immediate family. Retailers are noticing customers buying smaller bundles of items for smaller dinner parties. Domestic turkeys dance with glee hoping that their lives will be spared this year since families may opt for eating a small chicken instead.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the story forward. This is Article 25 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-fifth article is published on Sunday, 11/15/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning in March 2020 and sooner, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring and recorded in real time.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on 9/24/20.

The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in Hospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a Disappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwest and Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K Americans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected; Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress Continues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on 10/4/20.

The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers; Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.

The twenty-third article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United StatesReports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the ActiveCases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump SaysCoronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, RhodeIsland, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas,Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma,Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated toInterstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus SpreadingRapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23 published on 10/24/20.

The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe UnderLockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US PresidentialElection Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins ReportsAmerica Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff MeadowsTests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K HighestEver; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President TrumpRefuses to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million;Pfizer Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188Kon 11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.

The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple days.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will then peak in 1 to 4 weeks later depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave (although Japan and South Korea are descending into a third wave covid quagmire right now and the jury is out if either can resolve the latest outbreak in the 11-day period).

If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like the US and many other Western nations, non-authoritarian, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve where the strain on the medical systems and personnel is at a peak). Western nations live more feely and independently so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Interestingly, Russia President Putin must be an incompetent dictator since the pandemic is spinning out of control. Perhaps he wants to trim the elderly populations so they are less of a burden on the Ruskie government.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum stress on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key and will increase a couple weeks after the new cases increase (which makes the days and few weeks ahead appear ominous) but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities, or nursing homes, and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. Some patients continue therapy for months on an out-patient basis and this continues to require medical staff and supplies.

The crisis America faces in the days ahead is the dwindling healthcare workforce. Many healthcare workers have become sick with covid, and many have died. Hospitals are running at capacity in several states and will only become more strained into Thanksgiving. Lack of beds is one problem but a more important issue is the lack of medical staff available in America. Perhaps nursing students will have to be pressed into duty to perform some of the more mundane hospital tasks so the experienced nurses can focus on the seriously-ill patients, a trial by fire for the would-be nurses, if you will. Retired nurses have to worry about contracting the virus so even if they want to help it is difficult to do so.

Time will tell if Biden’s thin frame can grab the covid bull by the horns and wrestle it to the ground but the country is out of time. America needs to start thinking outside the box, to use a worn-out cliché, because Trump sure is not getting the job done. Donnie sits back each day admiring all his eggs in the vaccine basket while coronavirus spirals out of control in the near-term. Americans are anxious and starting to hoard again. The United States needs leadership. Trump is golfing.

The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts. It is a shame that the Whitehouse virus task force, politicians, health officials, media, doctors and scientists cannot explain these concepts to the general public.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is now 11/13/20 rising exponentially. America is in a third wave of the virus, or third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Adding 28 days to 11/13/20 is a target date of 12/11/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and hopefully begin to roll it over lower to create the bell shape. This date is pushed forward if the new cases keep printing new highs. The increase in new cases has to decrease before there is any hope that the medical systems and personnel will receive relief about four weeks in the future.

A somber Thanksgiving is ahead on 11/26/20. Doctors and scientists are telling folks to cancel their holiday plans and instead try to stay isolated to help tamp down this third wave plaguing America. Thanksgiving is going to be depressing; you are going to see ugly things (covid) on the television screen. The US may not flatten the active cases curve until mid-December, as per the Keystone Model, so Christmas is already not looking all that great either. Ditto New Years. By the end of the year, everyone, not just the poor folks and those of color, will know a family member, friend, relative, or guy down the street, that has died from covid.

The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India, Brazil (but big spike in new cases on 11/11/20), Colombia (but new cases are elevated), Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Bolivia, Qatar, Panama (but new cases elevated), Philippines (data is messy), Egypt (may be trouble ahead), Kuwait (may be trouble ahead), Oman, Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Australia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic data), Israel, Iraq (trying to bend over its active cases curve but it remains shaky), UAE (data is problematic virus is likely worsening), Uzbekistan, Ethiopia (may be trouble ahead), Nepal, Argentina, Switzerland, Czechia and Lebanon. The last five nations shown appear on the happy list this week for the first time in a while but will need ongoing monitoring to see if they fall apart again. For now, all the countries listed in this paragraph are doing better at handling the pandemic than the nations listed below (based on the data which nations may or may not be reporting truthfully).

It is disheartening to see South Korea and Japan slip off the happy list above and fall back down into the covid sad list of nations below. These two countries, with a cooperative and virus-hardened population that helps tamp down the virus quickly and efficiently, are now in big trouble with third waves underway. South Korea’s new cases are the highest since September. A mentioned above, time will tell if South Korea and Japan can roll the active cases bell curve chart over in 11 days, or not.

Australia and New Zealand have to serve as the best examples for handling the pandemic. China also has control over the virus but screw them since they are the bioterrorists that created this global coronavirus pandemic that has murdered a quarter-of-a-million Americans. Taiwan is an excellent shining example of handling the virus but in fairness, it is easier to control an outbreak as an island nation.

The Dominican Republic falls-off the list above and begins its second wave. Indonesia reports a tragic spike in new cases the highest ever over the last two days and begins a second wave. The charts are looking terrible for so many nations. Coronavirus is highly contagious. The data is starting to look so depressing that the end game may be when everyone on the planet contracts covid. Of course, by the time herd immunity would occur, millions of people would be in caskets.

The magic range for herd immunity is 60% to 80% the higher the better. For the US, right now, wetting the index finger and holding it in the air, there may be about 10% that have had covid, or had it without knowing they had it, and the vaccines are expected to cover at least about 50% depending on how well the shots are received by the public, the US remains in shaky territory, even at the April 2021 mark when most of the general population should have access to a vaccine. Covid may be around well into 2022.

Heaven forbid if America is going to go full-fledged 1984 (George Orwell) and force citizens to take the vaccine to boost the participation level; that will surely launch a civil war in America. Too many folks are looking at coronavirus with rose-colored glasses. This covid nightmare will play out longer than anyone expects and require moral, ethical and social decisions that will impact American’s liberty, freedom, and its psyche, forever.

In the days ahead, due to the increasing load of covid patients, hospitals may have to ration care and begin deciding who lives, and who dies. Uncle Ted, Aunt Rosalee or Brother Shaq, or even beloved grandma, may be the body lying on that gurney in the hospital hallway, or worse, staged by the front door next to the cigarette receptacle, coughing up phlegm, gasping for life’s precious breath, praying that someone can provide help.

The 37 worst global hotspots, that have not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted below. The projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems), based on the Keystone Model, are provided. The nations towards the bottom of the list are in the heat of the covid battle currently. China’s deadly coronavirus is murdering thousands of innocent souls each day.

Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever are 4/10, 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
11/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; Ireland has failed to flatten the active cases curve in the 11-day time frame like the first wave so now it is a 28-day country as per the Keystone Model; Ireland is the first country that handled the virus quickly early in the year, but cannot repeat their success for the current second wave)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
10/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/27/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Poland (Third Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Armenia (Second Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
France (Second Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
11/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart may have peaked; data is sloppy)
 
Belize (Second Wave)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Mexico (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Austria (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/13/20)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Dominican Republic (Second Wave Starting)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest since September)
11/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever this month)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Italy (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
United States (Third Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever at 188K!!!)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Japan (Third Wave Underway)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases days ever are 8/3/20 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
South Korea (Third Wave Underway)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases days are 8/3/20 and 11/14/)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Albania (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever this month)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever this month)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Indonesia (Second Wave Starting)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases days are 8/3/20 and 11/14/20)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Moldova (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/20/20 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Romania (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever in November)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Pakistan (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Kazakhstan (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/8 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Georgia (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Ukraine (First Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Ireland has the dubious distinction of being the first nation that originally handled the virus quickly and efficiently (11-day average between the peak in the new cases chart and peak in the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model) but cannot stop the current second wave in the same time frame now slipping into the range of other nations that are having difficulties handling the virus (28-day average between the peak in the new cases chart and the peak in the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model).

Conditions in South Korea and Japan are deteriorating so it will be interesting to see if they can handle the latest wave quickly, like in the springtime, or not. Australia maintains a flat profile for its daily new cases and active cases charts so it is one of the rare examples of success in fighting covid. Southern Australia, however, is experiencing five flare-ups so time will tell if the land down under maintains their happy path forward. China and Taiwan have handled the virus well. Ditto Singapore.

Europe remains a mess although Poland and Czechia improve slightly in the big picture (from terrible to bad). Poland reports record deaths yesterday. Spain receives a spike in new cases that hints the situation is going from bad to worse. Conditions in Croatia may be deteriorating. Austria is imposing further lockdown measures as hospitalizations increase. Greece is closing primary schools and nurseries. Italy is requiring additional regions to go into lockdown as the virus worsens.

Remember the controversy surrounding Sweden that did not mandate a lockdown earlier this year instead favoring a herd immunity approach? Many Swedes have chosen to mask-up and social distance by their own accord so the non-mandate was never a true test of what would happen if a country did not lockdown in any way. After many months, Sweden is in the same pickle as all the other European nations experiencing a record spike in new cases over the last few days. Reference the chart above.

Europe is doing everything it can to keep schools open. European nations are tightening restrictions on citizens to try and stop the spread of the contagious killer. Resistance to lockdowns are increasing across the continent. Anti-lockdown demonstrations result in violence in Frankfurt, Germany. Protesters in an anti-mask group, that were required to wear masks if they demonstrated, face-off against protesters in an anti-anti-mask group (pro mask). It’s ridiculous. Riot police step in to break up both groups with water cannons. The natives are restless.

In Armenia, a fire in a covid ward of a hospital takes lives. The fire was probably caused by one of those cheap, faulty, poor-quality Ruskie ventilators that are catching fire. You get what you pay for. Mexico sadly crosses the 1 million total cases milestone as explained above. Indonesia, that seemed to have a handle on things for a few weeks, are now slipping down the covid rabbit hole again.

Russia and Ukraine are in horrible shape the worst in the world. Hey Dictator Putin, are you still going to kiss Dictator Xi’s butt after China releases the covid bioterrorism murdering-off your Russian people? Putin is going to have his hands full in the coming days; the Ruskies are dropping like flies.

For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The worst 20 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are Texas the worst state, California, then Florida is the third worst state, followed by New York, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana, Minnesota, Alabama, Louisiana and Virginia. Wisconsin jumps three spots on the list (worsening). Arizona and Alabama each drop two spots on the list improving by a hair.

During the prior months, several states were successful at flattening the curve and creating the bell shape on the active cases chart, but these states have now succumbed to the dark side again with covid infections rising and their active cases curves curling upwards for another wave. A week ago, Georgia and Louisiana were the only two states that had a dropping active cases curve but now they are back in the covid soup again with new cases rising and the active cases starting to move higher.

Below is a listing of all 50 US states that have failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active cases rise with another wave. The pandemic spreads from 35 troubled states in the list below to all 50 states, the entire nation, in only 54 days. Trump addresses the pandemic in the long-term with vaccines but he forgot about the short-term. Conditions are deteriorating into Thanksgiving. America is starting to freak-out again like the springtime.

The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all of America is in the same pandemic trouble with new cases hitting record highs. Anincrease in new cases lead to higher active cases and hospitalizations which then lead to more deaths. The United States is following Europe’s lead into COVID-19 Hell.

Hawaii (Second Wave)
11/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since Sept)
12/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Mississippi (Third Wave)
11/5/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is choppy and messy)
 
Oklahoma
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
11/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Tennessee (Second Wave)
11/9/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Connecticut (Second Wave)
11/9/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Wyoming (Third Wave)
11/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Georgia (Third Wave)
11/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of third wave)
12/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Idaho (Second Wave)
11/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Vermont (Third Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Mexico (Third Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
South Dakota (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Washington (Third Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
11/12/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/6 and 11/12/20)
12/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Kansas (Third Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy)


Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Alabama
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Louisiana (Third Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever are 7/26, 8/2 and 11/13/20)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arkansas
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Utah (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Florida (Third Wave Underway)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave thus far)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
California (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/13/20)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Texas (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever in July and November)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Maine (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Delaware (Third Wave)
11/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/11/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Alaska (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Nevada (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Oregon (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/12 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Arizona (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
North Dakota (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New York (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of second wave 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
New Jersey (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since April peaks)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Maryland (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Indiana (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 11/13 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Kentucky
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
West Virginia (Third Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for third wave)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is messy)
 
Minnesota (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Montana (Second Wave)
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

The ‘highest new cases ever’ notations for each state are jaw-dropping and proof positive that the Trump administration blew the handling of the pandemic bigtime. 40 states are reporting the highest daily new cases ever. The other 10 are at record numbers of daily new cases for the current wave. 25 states report record hospitalizations. America is screwed and citizens sense the trouble ahead so the hoarding begins. Will stress and panic raise their ugly heads?

Texas is the first state to pass 1 million total cases and does this before California that has a far larger population. Mobile morgues, which are refrigerated tractor trailer trucks that will temporarily house dead bodies, pull into El Paso, Texas, where they are dropping like flies. In Los Angeles, the large testing facility at Dodger Stadium remains busy servicing from 700 to 1K people per day.

A second wave is now hitting Navajo Nation. The Native Americans were walloped hard early in the year but then kept infections at bay during the summer. Unfortunately, the situation takes a turn for the worse again with new cases rising in Navajo Nation. New cases are also rising in Puerto Rico and Guam. It seems everywhere you look there is a problem.

Colorado Governor Polis says people planning to meet in large groups over the Thanksgiving Day and weekend are playing Russian roulette with their lives and the lives of others. Polis says people not quarantining for two weeks before they meet relatives on the holiday are holding “a loaded pistol to grandma’s head.” He is trying to stop the coronavirus outbreak in the Rocky Mountains and is clearly worried about the path ahead. He says, “That’s where we are.” Anyone wanting to join others in a Thanksgiving Day celebration should have started quarantining two days ago. Few are likely following these guidelines. People in Europe and North America are suffering pandemic fatigue with some thinking out loud about getting the virus instead of living a depressing zombie existence. Important philosophical and social questions will require answers going forward.

New York Governor Cuomo and five other northeast states convene an emergency meeting to coordinate their coronavirus pandemic response. New York may shut down schools starting tomorrow. The pandemic is a complete mess. Trump should try and right the covid ship during his last 66 days at the helm, otherwise, the USS Coronavirus is going to hit a reef.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Be patient with these folks since most of them are likely burned-out.

“Project Warp Speed” continues to speedily develop a vaccine. The positive Pfizer news with the new mRNA vaccine sent the US stock market to all-time record highs. Moderna is expected to release information this week on its mRNA vaccine and analysts are expecting more happy news like Pfizer. Both companies are expected to receive emergency use approval by the end of the year. Officials are saying the general public may not be in line for the vaccine until Q2 and Q3 of next year. Healthcare workers, patients, first responders and nursing home workers and patients will receive vaccinations before anyone else.

The fiscal stimulus bill remains up in the air. Millions of Americans cannot pay their bills so the economic problems and hardships will be stacking-up going forward. The upper middle class and elite privileged class have skated through the covid mess this year effortlessly but the huddled masses, the lower middle class, poor, disadvantaged and people of color have been royally screwed. These folks work the jobs in the industries that are locked down. If they do work, they are at high risk for exposure to covid. The elite politicians that control the crony capitalism system in America, that dine on the finest cuisine and sleep on satin sheets each evening, take their time at providing fiscal stimulus for poor, disadvantaged and lower middle-class families in dire straits, many facing eviction.

54 million Americans are currently suffering through food insecurity. At the southwestern Pennsylvania food banks, we see the need stronger than at anytime in recent years. People comment that they never thought they would ever be in a food line but they are grateful that at least someone shows that they care.

The baby game of President Trump refusing to concede the election that occurred almost two weeks ago is getting old. Cry Baby Donnie stirs up demonstrators in Washington, DC, last evening, which results in violence, and then he blames the left-leaning factions for the mayhem. Trump is preventing a smooth transition for the Biden administration which is a first in the history of the United States. Trump want to go into the history books as a sore loser. By refusing to concede and at the same time obstruct Biden’s entry into government, the president stacks-up all his accomplishments on the Oval Office carpet, stands over the sizable pile, straddles the documents, squats, and takes a dump on it all. Trump’s behavior over the last week soils his legacy but he must be more concerned about making money over the coming years and handling his financial and legal problems.

Trump is likely brainstorming ways to monetize the 72 million people that voted for him. The US is controlled by two competing political tribes and the politicians, corporate executives and other leaders and officials pick a side, and pledge allegiance to that tribe above the country. President-Elect Biden is developing his own mass distribution plan for vaccines and other treatments since Trump will not provide access to the key information as part of the transition of power.

Biden is planning to meet with the vaccine makers in the days ahead. He says a complete lockdown like early in the year is an option only to be used as a last resort. The president-elect is finalizing details on his new COVID-19 plan; however, President Trump remains president and in control of the covid response until 1/20/21 when Biden will take over. Trump may take action against China and/or Iran before he leaves office in 66 days. Donnie is on the golf course thinking about it.

The coronavirus news continues at a fast pace. UK PM Johnson self-isolates after he is potentially exposed to coronavirus. Johnson was deathly sick a few months ago with covid and is lucky he did not croak.

In the states, more stores are limiting the quantities of purchases as the population begins hoarding again like earlier in the year. The US faces tough sledding ahead, into the winter months, as the pandemic rages out of control. Trump plays several rounds of golf over the last few days perhaps more focused on his own future than the nation’s. Perhaps that is why he lost.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/16/20, at 6:00 AM EST: US stock futures are up about +1% continuing higher off all-time record highs on the happy vaccine talk from Pfizer. Analysts and traders expect more happiness from Moderna this week that is using similar mRNA vaccine technology to Pfizer’s. MRNA stock jumps over +4% in the pre-market as investors salivate over potential positive vaccine news. PFE gains +2%. BNTX +3%. JNJ +2%. BioNTech is in partnership with Pfizer and CEO Sahin proclaims that the vaccines and treatment could return life to normal next winter but “this winter will be hard.” Dr Fauci compares the presidential transitioning period to “passing a baton in a race” and hopes that President-Elect Biden will begin receiving coronavirus task force information.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/16/20, at 7:00 AM EST: Moderna announces good news as expected claiming 94.5% effectiveness with its mRNA vaccine. It is a better percentage than Pfizer’s vaccine and it does not have to be stored at as cold a temperature making distribution easier. MRNA catapults +10% higher. PFE -2%. BNTX -8%. US futures leap higher. The S&P 500 Index futures are up +1.2% and the Dow futures re up +1.8% within a hair of the 30K milestone. More record highs are ahead for the stock market on the vaccine hype. The screen printers were up all night printing the “Dow 30K” hats for handing out on the exchange floors today. European indexes jump +1% to +3% higher. The rich get richer and the poor poorer in crony America land of the have’s and have not’s. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock and only stand by and watch the wealthy dance with glee as the rigged markets move higher. The coming class war in America will be a doozy.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 11/16/20: Fauci says the mask and social distancing guidelines should be followed even after the vaccine is administered to the population. People are scratching their heads and asking why? Isn't the idea behind vaccines that America can get back to normal faster? Fauci is likely worried about when the herd immunity will kick in with the mass vaccinations and as described above, if the public does not welcome the shots (the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two shots spaced about three weeks apart) as outlined above. The virus may linger far longer than anyone expects before the country can get to that 60% to 80% herd immunity level. The stock market, doctors, scientists and media cheerlead the vaccines as the Second Messiah. Is that overconfidence misplaced? The mRNA technology is new and nobody knows if there is a latency period involved where problems develop in the body over time. The vaccine may create health issues later on in life. Perhaps young people will only prefer to date others that have had, or have not had, the vaccine, depending on what group they choose. Those concerned about the mRNA technology changing their bodies and perhaps impacting the bloodline may prefer to not date someone who took the vaccine. The mRNA technology targets neural transmitters and scientists fooling with neural tissue is scary. Let the doctors, scientists and media personalities touting the vaccine all be filmed, one after another, receiving the vaccine shots if they want to instill public confidence. It is unknown how long the protection from covid would last. The virus will mutate and nobody knows how that will impact vaccine efficacy moving forward. The vaccine may be useless on a mutation of the virus. Who knows what nano particles, heavy metals (flu shots use thimerosal which is mainly mercury that goes into your body and does not come out) and how the new technology will impact the body's DNA. There are many unknowns ahead with vaccines, but America, and especially stock traders, are giddy over the vaccine hope that others may call hype. The S&P 500 Index prints a new all-time closing high at 3627. The Dow prints an all-time high at 29964, and new all-time closing high at 29950 coming within 36 points of the Dow 30,000. New York screen printers continue producing the "Dow 30K" hats and shipping them to trading floors for distribution when the ticker prints 30,000; perhaps tomorrow. President-Elect Biden speaks and is asked what will happen if President Trump continues prohibiting a smooth transition of power. Biden proclaims, "More people may die,... if we don't coordinate." Trump remains holed-up in the Lincoln Bedroom refusing to come out and continuing to say he was cheated and the election was rigged.

Note Added Monday Evening, 11/16/20: The CDC reports 194,600 new coronavirus cases for Thursday, 11/12/20, the highest number ever. Worldometer reports 188K new cases on Friday, 11/13/20. Johns-Hopkins reports over 177K new infections on Friday. All three data sets peak in these recent days at 175K to 195K new daily cases. Pray that these large obscene numbers subside as they are over the last couple days.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/17/20, at 12:30 AM EST: Today is the ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF COVID-19. On 11/17/19, the state-run South China Post reports the first article mentioning the pneumonia-like illness afflicting people. Folks in Italy were getting sick last Fall as well. The world is in a bad place one-year later and once the pandemic has been defeated, it will be time for nations to band together and go after China for their nefarious deed in releasing covid. The communists owe the world restitution, and more, for their bioterrorism and crime against humanity 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/17/20, at 1:30 AM EST: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, imposes coronavirus restrictions on citizens that will run through the end of the year. Indoor gatherings of unrelated people are banned (the local government knows they cannot enforce such a ban), indoor dining is prohibited (more restaurants will go bankrupt) and gyms, fitness centers, museums and libraries will be closed. The draconian lockdown also includes bowling alleys, theaters, casinos, arcades and concerts, in other words. Philly folks have no life for the next couple months. Washington state bans wakes and funerals and places limits on local sports organizations and teams. Oregon bans large indoor gatherings. Michigan places limits on gatherings. New Jersey places further limits on gatherings. Costco retail stores are requiring all customers to wear masks even those with underlying health conditions. Airlines are reducing flight schedules from USA to UK due to covid disruptions. Government health officials are encouraging work-from-home (WFH) bringing back memories of the pandemic from earlier this year. Dr Gottlieb is excited about the vaccines and says the pandemic could end next year. Dr Slaoui, who chairs the president's Operation Warp Speed effort to fast-track vaccines, says, "Clearly, we would hope there is no disruption because of the transition (Trump to Biden power transfer on 1/20/21)." Russia's covid outbreak is spinning out of control. Russia daily new cases hit another record yesterday at 22,778 cases. Russia's active cases, hospitalizations and deaths charts have gone parabolic. Dictator Putin is protected within a bubble as the Russian citizens succumb to the covid killer one by one. The western Asia, eastern Europe and Middle East area is a highly infectious zone including Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Hey idiot Putin, where's your 92% effective vaccine? How come your people are becoming sick with covid at the highest rate to date with many dropping like flies? Ruskies will have to put the borscht and vodka aside and stop gathering for a few weeks to try and gain control of the pandemic. Russia is a key laboratory test going forward as its nation becomes completely consumed by covid; there will be economic and societal impacts the Kremlin will need to address.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/17/20, at 8:00 AM EST: Tokyo reports the highest number of new virus cases ever. Sweden imposes a limit on gatherings to eight people, closes gyms and libraries, and tells citizens to stay home and not attend parties. London closes stores and bars. Chancellor Merkel says the coronavirus pandemic is stabilizing in Germany. She pats herself on the back proclaiming that her lockdown measures are succeeding at halting the virus. The active cases curve continues higher for Germany so she is wrong but perhaps the curve will begin to flatten over the coming days. Poland reports over 600 deaths in the last 24 hours. South Australia imposes a six-day lockdown as an outbreak occurs in Adelaide. Australia is one of the few nations in the world that have beat back covid. The pandemic is spinning out of control in Bulgaria. Thousands take to the streets in Berlin to protest against the draconian lockdown rules imposed on society. Protesters throw rocks and bottles at the police who respond with water cannons. After dark, protesters shoot fireworks at the police which light up the sky in front of the Brandenburg Gate. In the States, the test positivity rate climbs over 10%. Over 73K people are hospitalized. Pennsylvania residents are told to wear masks indoors including inside their homes which draws immediate backlash, ire and laughter. Ohio imposes a voluntary curfew at 10 PM EST each evening which is also met with ridicule. Law enforcement says they will not enforce the guideline. New Orleans cancels Mardi Gras celebrations through 2021. The Iowa, North Dakota and Utah governors reverse course and now impose mandatory mask use. The states need to get on the same page but this is only accomplished by federal leadership, however, President Trump continues sulking about his election loss and claiming voter fraud. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, 87 years old, tests positive for coronavirus. Lucira Health receives FDA emergency approval for an at-home COVID-19 test. It requires a nasal swab that is placed in the unit and 30 minutes later the test reads positive or negative. The test is under $50 but that remains too much for poor and disadvantaged folks. Fauci says at least 75% of the population will likely need vaccinated for the US to arrive at an immunity level where normal life returns. This is an extremely important statement and will come into play bigtime in 2021. If Americans do not trust the new mRNA technology that Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are pimping, the US is screwed; coronavirus will likely remain a part of out lives through 2021 into and perhaps through 2022. The US stock market closes at record highs.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 11/18/20, at 7:00 AM EST: Pfizer says its vaccine is 95% effective, a couple percent more than last week's report, edging-out Moderna at 94.5% effective. Both of these effective rates far exceed anyone's expectations. President Trump continues hiding in the Whitehouse refusing to concede the election.

Note Added Wednesday, 11/18/20: Shamefully, photo's surface showing California Governor Newsom at a French restaurant laughing it up with his buddies, all mask-less, having fun, and as it turns out, a couple of the folks attending the party were health officials. You cannot make the stuff up. These people must be nobility since they lecture and dictate rules to everyone daily, telling people how to live their lives, while they do not follow any of those edicts. America is in the New Gilded Age a la the 1920's. The United States is the land of the have's and have not's. The elite say follow out decrees, you little huddled masses pieces of garbage and trash, you deplorables, do as we say not as we do. Legislators from Texas, Washington state and California fly to Hawaii for a 'conference' while they are placing restrictions on citizens in their jurisdictions at home. Pop culture celebrity Kim Kardashian and dozes of friends fly to a tropical island to par-tay and post pictures on social media. Considering the pandemic, the decadence of the rich is too much for even some loyal Kardashian supporters to take and they let the intellectually-challenged millionaire know via messages. The elite privileged class screwed the rest of the country over the last five decades destroying the middle class that used to be the fabric that held the country together. This is why the crony capitalism system is falling apart. If you listen closely, you can hear the class war approaching.

Note Added Wednesday, 11/18/20: The vaccine news is all the rage these days and 11/24/20, Tuesday, is a key date. CDC and other officials meet to decide and develop a priority list of who receives the vaccines first. The wealthy elite privileged class will have access to the vaccine but that will be swept under the rug hidden from public view. Nursing home patients and workers, doctors, nurses and hospital workers, medics, first responders, will be at the top of the list. The vaccines will not be available to the general public until April forward and many scientists cite Q2 and Q3 (April-Sept). If Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna produced as much of their two vaccines as possible, it would take three years to produce enough medicine to treat the entire world. Therefore, it is critical to have many treatments and therapies available. The more options the better. As a simple safeguard (check with your doctor), keep taking zinc, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin D-3 and turmeric each day to remain healthy and maintain a robust immunity system. The pandemic continues taking an economic toll especially for common people that cannot perform work from home on a computer. 11 million people remain unemployed in the US from the pandemic mess and 4 million of those folks are off for over 27 weeks! That is not good. The other 7 million jobless are called temporary layoffs, or furloughs, or other stupid words like that. Tell those folks the truth. Your job is done, sonny and girlie. Over. Fini. Gonzo. Accept it. Start looking for a new job or go in the direction of a new career immediately because sitting around waiting for a phone call from your old boss is not going to happen.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/19/20, at 6:30 AM EST: New York residents exceed the 3% positivity rate threshold set by the government so all schools go to remote learning until further notice. Minnesota orders bars, restaurants and gyms to be closed for a month. There are many bankruptcies occurring across America. Ma and Pa businesses in small cities and towns are falling like dominoes but they do not have a national sounding board so their cries for help and reform remain unheard. Over 80K people are hospitalized in America; this number was 60K only a week ago. Dear Lord. Do not get sick because if you do, your final breaths and view may be from your 6-year old Subaru in the corner of the hospital parking lot. The test positivity rates are ramping higher some to ridiculous levels. Pennsylvania testing is finding 23% positives. Arkansas hits the 10% positivity rate. South Dakota is the worst in the nation with a 56% positivity rate. Oh my. 3 of every 5 people tested in South Dakota are positive. North Dakota is the only state remaining that does not impose a mask mandate of some sort and it has more hospitalizations per citizen than any other state. They are efficient at spreading the virus. Live by the sword, die by the sword.


Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/19/20, at 7:15 AM EST: The mainstream media is touting the grim quarter-of-a-million US deaths milestone just crossed with the Johns-Hopkins data. The Worldometer data crossed this level a couple-few days ago and is at 256,311 deaths. 58,200 Americans died in the Vietnam War; covid is five Vietnam's. This is where the J-H data is headed next. It is a travesty that the best America can do is to have the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world. How did that happen? The mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic is President Trump's Waterloo and the election sends King Donnie packing. America is hoping that Sleepy Joe Biden can wake up and steer the covid ship to safety. The Oxford-AstraZeneca partnership reports positive results for its Phase 2 trials. AZN trades up +0.8%. The US stock market appears toppy the last couple days with investors perhaps selling on the vaccine news (they bought on the vaccine hope). WHO emphasizes that everyone around the world should have access to the vaccines. Dr Osterholm, prone to employ hyperbole, proclaims that this is the worst point in time for the pandemic. President trump and the leader of the task force Vice President Pence say any hospital or medical facility in the United States can have all the PPE they want. For months, the task force says this and for months nurses tell stories how they have to reuse masks and gowns and so forth because they cannot get PPE. Trump refuses to concede the election and is blocking a smooth transition of power to Biden. Scientists say the lack of a smooth presidential transition will likely result in more people ill and dying of coronavirus. The 911 Commission concluded that a better presidential transition (Clinton to Bush) may have helped thwart 911. Unemployment Claims rise faster than expected. Over 11 million people remain out of work.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 11/19/20: The CDC tells Americans not to travel during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and discourages spending time with people outside the family. The CDC says 298K people will be dead from covid by 12/12/20 only 22 days away. The US death rate is headed for 2K dead per day. President-Elect Biden conducts a press conference and says he has talked with many governors to coordinate his covid response. Biden is known for his empathy and he provides sympathy to the families that have lost loved ones; some of the ladies voted for Sleepy Joe for this reason running from Trump's bombastic authoritarian-style cold personality. Biden says Trump's lack of cooperation with the change in government is "damaging" and sends a "horrible message" to the world. He says Trump's comments and actions show "incredible irresponsibility." Donnie, hiding in the Lincoln Bedroom, tweets that Biden is "absolutely wrong." 

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/19/20: The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are in rare disagreement on how to spend the remaining funds in the emergency lending program. Uncertainty is introduced into the stock market and futures dip slightly lower. Vice President Pence conducts a coronavirus task force press conference for the first time since 7/8/20; that is shameful. The virus is spinning out of control so here comes Pence making an appearance to update America on covid for the first time in over four months; it's pitiful. Pence begins by showing empathy to the 250K souls lost to covid. No doubt he watched Biden's news conference and knew that he would have to lay it on thick as well. Pollyanna Pence paints a positive picture constantly touting the vaccines and therapies coming but blind to the tragedy unfolding right before his eyes. Pence does not take questions at the end of the presentation which leaves reporters yelling at Pence and his group as they slink off stage and disappear behind the door. The two weeks plus after the election is starting to take on a sick feel. Trump is damaging the nation by his claims of voter fraud with Rudy Giuliani conducting a long press conference claiming proof but not providing any substantive evidence. Giuliani's hair dye drips down his face as he speaks rehashing the same arguments about election observers not being allowed to view the vote counting when in fact they were. Giuliani touts a hundred affidavits from people that claim voter fraud. This sounds like a big deal but it is a scam. The affidavits are from the people that were banging on doors and windows during the vote counting demanding they be let in to observe the poll workers. Trump encouraged these disruptions before the election. The election process does not function that way. President Trump's motivations the last couple weeks may be revenge and sour grapes. Donnie has to accept the fact that the majority of the country did not want to look at his orange head every 10 minutes for the next four years. Trump is destroying his legacy. Republicans with presidential aspirations, such as Cruz and Graham, are enabling the president with the voter fraud saga which takes the USA down another peg internationally. In Michigan, Trump won by 10K votes in 2016 but Biden beat Trump by 160K votes this election. Donnie's ongoing temper tantrum is damaging the Trump brand name that now stands for cry baby and sore loser. The USA is circling the covid drain and getting sucked down into darkness. The US HITS THE 2K DAILY DEATH MILESTONE as per the Worldometer data. ON 11/19/20, THE US REPORTS 2,064 COVID DEATHS. Donnie is on the links yucking it up with his pals.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/20/20, at 2:00 AM EST: California issues a curfew which may be hard to enforce because the officials decreeing limits on the population do not follow the rules themselves. The WHO, citing a study by a British trade journal, differs with the FDA saying that Gilead's Remdesivir should not be used for treating covid patients. US coronavirus cases top 12 million so 3.6% of Americans have contracted coronavirus or 1 in every 28 people. Tragically, the Worldometer data prints another new high in daily new cases at 192,186 on 11/19/20. Johns-Hopkins reports 185,759 daily new cases so the data sets are tracking each other nicely. Dear Lord. Scientists continue learning more about COVID-19 each day and say that 1 in 4 people that contract the virus experience delirium (mental confusion and emotional disruption that impacts thinking, sleeping, memory and the ability to focus and concentrate). It makes you wonder if President Trump is still dealing with symptoms of his coronavirus illness.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/20/20, at 7:00 AM EST: Pfizer is filing for emergency use of its vaccine in December with the FDA. Moderna will likely seek the same approval. The FDA says it will meet and provide the approval around 12/8/20. People are complaining about the length of time it is taking but there is documentation and other safety hurdles required. The vaccine news is great but people are likely too bulled-up on the news. it takes about six weeks after the first shot of the vaccine to build immunity; it is a two-shot regimen and the immunity begins to develop after the second shot that is about three weeks after the initial shot. In September, only 50% of the country said it would take the vaccine. Right now, that has improved to about 58% willing to take the vaccine but that makes the herd immunity level at 60% to 80%, or higher, appear tricky. Some people are going to exhibit flu-like symptoms after they get the shots and these videos will go viral on social media. If people become skeptical, it may take a long time, such as all of next year, before you can vaccinate enough people. What happens when the USA is in this same spot one year from now, going into the new flu and covid season, but not yet vaccinating enough people to create herd immunity for the current strain of covid (which may mutate one year hence). It is great to be optimistic and sing a happy song but not when you are whistling past the graveyard where a couple dozen new graves are dug for the covid dead.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/20/20, at 11:00 AM EST: Florida Senator Rick Scott tests positive for coroanvirus and begins quarantining. Scott is having mild symptoms. He attended the election night bash at the Whitehouse which turned out to not be a joyous party and only served to infect people with the virus. Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy, and an aid to President Trump, tests positive for coronavirus so Rudy Giuliani will quarantine and this may hamper the ongoing legal path ahead for the voter fraud allegations. At least Rudy will now have time to find and order hair dye on the internet that does not run down the sides of his face. The Whitehouse remains a covid infected nest. 

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 11/20/20:The Whitehouse remains a covid infected nest. Trump's son, Donnie Junior, tests positive for covid. His girlfriend, the former Fox News commentator Kimberly Guilfoyle, had the virus three months ago. There are 10 senators that have been stricken with covid this year. President Trump speaks for the first time in a week. It appears he gained a few pounds probably from eating bonbon's as he hides in the Lincoln Bedroom. He is a broken man not as confident as he used to be; he avoids eye contact with the press. Trump blames big pharma for his election loss especially Pfizer and Moderna for holding back on the positive vaccine news until after the election. Trump thinks it would have made a difference for him if the vaccine news was released before 11/3/20. The companies have already said that the timeline simply worked out that way and they were not playing politics. King Donnie continues to decree that he has won the election but cannot maintain eye contact with anyone as he describes his alternate election dimension. "The campaign, which I won by the way, but, you know, we will find that out, aaa, almost 74 million votes, we had big pharma against us, the media against us, we had big tech against us, aaa, we had a lot of dishonesty against us." This sounds like part of the victory speech he had planned for election night, overcoming all odds to win, however baby Donnie, the sore loser, you lost. The current popular vote count is 79.7 million votes for Biden and 73.7 votes for Trump a 6 million spread; 74 million is a lot Donnie, but it was not enough, the other guy got 80 million. It is almost three weeks since Trump has taken any questions and he leaves the press conference after reading his prepared remarks. He was a media hound before the election. What happened, Donnie? He lost; that's what happened. President Trump is a lame, and mentally and emotionally-wounded, duck.

Note Added Friday Evening, 11/20/20: England is under lockdown until 12/2/20. Scotland bans travel to England and imposes its own lockdown measures. Coronavirus is spreading out of control in Russia. News sources say dirtbag Dictator Putin has cancer and Parkinson's Disease and probably plans to announce an exit from the Kremlin next year. Toronto, Canada, imposes a 28-day lockdown. PM Trudeau warns Canadians that the virus is serious and people need to avoid small groups and parties. Trudeau says, "We are really going to have to tighten-up again." The CDC says 59% of the coronavirus infections are caused by asymptomatic spread; this is why the virus is so difficult to control. Hospital medical staffs are spread thin. Earlier this year, cities would send doctors and nurses to other locations that needed extra virus help but currently, the entire US map is a red zone and medical personnel are stressed everywhere. Hats are off to the hardworking and dedicated nurses handling the sickness and death daily. Thank you for everything you do. Many Americans never experience a loved one, or another human, dying in their arms, it will change you forever, and nurses live that experience daily. All Americans deeply appreciate and honor your efforts. We need the nurses, doctors and medics to remain healthy since the next few months is going to be a nightmare on Elm Street as the horrific coronavirus bioterrorism continuously stabs America.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 11/21/20, at 2:00 AM EST: The vaccines will likely face social internet obstacles next year and the CDC, Whitehouse and medical community must get their messaging on the new mRNA technology, messaging RNA, correct from the start. There will be concerns that the vaccine permanently alters the DNA in human bodies. When this DNA talk goes viral on the internet it will be too late. People will not want to receive a shot that is going to change their DNA. A doctor was asked point blank the other day if the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines will alter human DNA. He could not say no. Laboratory tests currently indicate no changes in animal DNA but it remains a general unknown. If Americans panic about their DNA being potentially changed, the vaccine program will go down in flames. The medical community needs to immediately put together a simple diagram on how the mRNA technology works and unequivocally state that it will 100% not impact DNA. The only way to handle the DNA question is up front and now because once social internet gets a hold of it and people start to panic over what they are told, the vaccines do not have a chance and this virus will be with us for a couple-three years more. US states are recommending people travel only if necessary but the airports are busy with Thanksgiving travelers. Many Americans are no longer paying attention to warnings and guidelines since it has been a confusing and chaotic mess for months. People are deciding to live life and not worry about the virus. America is headed for extremely dark days ahead. 2021 will be ugly and the year will begin with people dropping like flies.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 11/21/20, at 6:00 AM EST: According to the Worldometer data, the UNITED STATES REPORTS OVER 200K DAILY NEW CASES. AMERICA REPORTS 201,434 CASES ON FRIDAY, 11/20/20, THE HIGHEST DAILY NEW CASES EVER. The Johns-Hopkins data reports an astounding 194,160 daily new cases. It is a sad day because this continuous parabolic ramp higher means sickness, mayhem, chaos, confusion, exhaustion, misery and death will be plaguing America in December and January. Are you ready? OVER 260K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM CORONAVIRUS as President Trump remains holed-up in the Lincoln Bedroom ashamed of his election loss. There are over 80K Americans hospitalized for covid and deaths have exceeded 1,900 people per day for the last three days. Americans are hoarding again with panic-buying of paper towels, toilet paper and disinfecting products. Shelves are going bare. Russia reports over 2 million total coronavirus cases a horrible milestone. Five nations are in the dreaded 2 million total cases club including the US, India, Brazil, France and Russia. COVID-19 has killed 35K Ruskies and yesterday's daily new cases for Russia is another new record high at 24,318 cases. Putin is sick with cancer and Parkinson's and the population is sick with covid. The vodka eases the pain.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 11/22/20, at 2:30 AM EST: Total global coronavirus cases are at 58.5 million approaching 60 million quickly. China's Wuhan Flu bioweapon has murdered nearly 1.4 million global citizens over the last nine months. It is hard for the mind to get a handle on those numbers (30 full sports stadiums where all the fan seats are filled with dead people). China does not care; they are filthy communists that have no respect for human life. The United States is at 12.5 million total COVID-19 cases and nearly 262K dead (five Vietnam's). Navajo Nation in the western US imposes a three-week lockdown to stop virus spread. The Native Americans were hit hard during the first wave of the pandemic in springtime but were spared during the summer not experiencing the second wave surge. Navajo Nation now feels the second wave while the country as a whole is in a third wave. There are 32 countries that have over 400 coronavirus deaths per 1 million population; United States, Mexico, Brazil, France, Spain, UK, Italy, Bolivia, Argentina, Columbia, Ecuador, Chile, Peru, Panama, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Romania, Czechia, Armenia, Moldova, Bahamas, Montenegro, Iran,  and Andorra (north of Spain). Peru and Belgium have the dubious distinction of having over 1K deaths per million people (1,072 and 1,337, respectively). Is there something special about the genetics in Peru and Belgium or perhaps the virus originally began spreading from these areas? Interestingly, the most deaths per million people occur in North America sans Canada, then from Panama in central America to South America, and also across Europe and especially southern Europe. The US was originally infected on the West Coat from China and Asia and then on the East Coast from Europe. New York got hit hard because of infected travelers from Europe. Perhaps the European virus mutated into a more deadly strain than the virus moving across Asia. The control of the US Senate depends on the outcome of two state elections in Georgia on 1/5/21 so America will remain in turmoil until then. Republican candidate Loeffler, that appeared with Vice President Pence in a rally yesterday, all were mask-less, tests positive for covid. It is comical. Most republicans keep saying masks are not needed, following King Donnie's lead and decrees, but one by one they contract coronavirus. The pandemic is spinning out of control. President Trump goes golfing again. Trump sat in virtually with G20 leaders yesterday but did not participate in a pandemic panel and instead hit the links. The guy lost the election because of his poor handling of the pandemic and Donnie now sends a signal that he just does not care anymore. G20 leaders opine about helping the poor countries receive vaccinations and pledge support but President Trump does not commit to the other nations. The president wants to see Americans receive the vaccine first. Food lines grow daily across America. People are waiting in line for hours to receive a cardboard box of groceries. The huddled masses are suffering while the elite privileged class, never missing a meal, pontificates about politics and the pandemic. Trump understands what it means to wait in line since he had to wait two minutes before teeing off.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 11/22/20, at 4:30 AM EST: Iowa hospitalizations have doubled over the last three weeks. Iowa shunned masks, instead puffing their chests out in support of Donnie Trump's worry-free coronavirus response, but many of those folks are now sick and the virus-infected state is promoting mask use. California begins its 10 PM to 5 AM local time curfew one of the stupidest ideas of the pandemic. If people go on about their affairs during the day, the infections will simply continue at the current rate; a curfew will do little to stem the tide. California is the land of fruits and nuts; the lawmakers appear clueless and uneducated about COVID-19. The American healthcare system is going to buckle come Christmas, New Years and early 2021. Obese Americans are stumbling around airports, highway rest stops and train and bus stations traveling for Thanksgiving ignoring the CDC and other guidelines recommending against nonessential travel. The pandemic is a mess this year and people do not know what to do so they are saying to Hell with it all and simply choosing to have fun. Citizens are coughing, picking their noses, and picking other areas, while adjusting masks that fail to cover exposed noses. We are screwed but what is extremely sad is that the healthcare workers are going to breakdown as the days and weeks play out. They are already burned out but only now beginning what will be Hell on Earth over the next two months. America must think outside the box, to use an old worn-out cliché. The restaurants are toast and so are those people's livelihoods. Why not transfer that workforce into nursing, those that are willing to give it a go, and the government could help with education costs. The US is getting old fast demographically and will need humongous amounts of doctors and nurses for the years ahead. In the short term, this does not help since a nurse can obviously not be trained in two weeks, but the restaurant workers can be employed at hospitals to do all the mundane tasks (stacking supplies, handling inventories, running to get whatever a nurse or doctor needs at anytime, cleaning rooms, answering phones, etc...) so nurses can be freed up to devote all their time to patients. Officials need to get these plans moving now because the US medical system will likely collapse as the clock turns 2021.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 11/22/20, at 11:00 AM EST: The FDA provides emergency approval for Regeneron for treatment in moderately sick patients. Regeneron helped Trump recover from his illness. Protesters take to the streets in California last evening after 10 PM local time to demonstrate against the curfew. The idea behind the stupid curfew decision is to slow and stop the virus spread, but humorously, albeit tragically, people are congregating together to protest and that action spreads the virus. One group of protesters are throwing their masks into a bonfire and chanting, "Burn that mask! Burn that mask! Burn that....." That is all the US needs is a new movement of mask-burning sweeping the nation. Oy vey. The US has completely botched the handling of the pandemic this year and the messaging remains confusing and chaotic each state doing its own thing.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/23/20, at 1:30 AM EST: Hong Kong reports a big spike higher in daily new cases so a third wave begins. Turkey reports the highest ever new daily cases at 6,017 and most covid daily deaths ever above above 135 per day for three days running. Dirtbag Dictator Erdogan is hiding the seriousness of the pandemic by watering down the statistics. Erdogan imposes limits on malls, markets and shops but these tame measures will not stop the virus spread. Turkey's economy is weak and now teetering. Forty years ago, Istanbul was a favorite American tourist destination. France President Macron says, "We're on a good path." New daily virus cases in France peaked on 11/7/20 so adding 28 days, as per the Keystone Model, targets 12/5/20 as when the active cases bell curve chart will flatten and the healthcare workers will see the patient load level off, and hopefully, then decrease. France needs to follow what they are doing for tow or three more weeks and they can tamp down the second wave. US total virus cases increase by 3 million in November alone. The Whitehouse task force proclaims that 70% of the US population will be vaccinated by May which will defeat the virus. What are they smoking? The problem this year is the pie-in-the-sky happy talk with no substance or details to ever back things up or to provide people direction. The virus is not going to be defeated by May. You are an idiot if you think that is going to occur. There will be hiccups on the vaccine roll-out and if social media labels the shots as dangerous, there may never be 70% of Americans willing to ever take the vaccine. Open your eyes, folks.

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/23/20, at 2:30 AM EST: AstraZeneca announces results of its vaccine testing claiming 70% effectiveness. Pfizer and Moderna report over 90% effectiveness for their new mRNA vaccines. The AstaZeneca vaccine can be stored in a normal refrigerator an advantage over Pffizer and Moderna. AZN trades down -2% in the pre-market. S&P futures pop a few handles up +21 but not as much as when the Pfizer and Moderna news hit on the prior two Monday's. The updated daily new cases for 11/20/20 is 204,179 the most ever in one day. On Friday, over 200K Americans were diagnosed with covid.

Note Added Monday, 11/23/20: The US medical system is under strain and things are going to get worse before they get better. The Cleveland Clinic reports nearly 1,000 healthcare providers sick with covid now quarantining and unable to help patients. Despite the strain on the healthcare system, Americans are traveling at the highest rate seen since the pandemic began. The Thanksgiving parties will spread the virus. The pandemic remains a complete mess. Americans, never receiving proper direction and guidance over the last few months, simply throw caution to the wind and decide to live life. This will not have a happy ending in December, January and maybe into February. Regeneron provides positive news saying that 300K doses of its treatment can be provided for the United States by January. This will help treat patients with moderate symptoms that are stating to worsen like President Trump when he was sick with covid before the election.

Note Added Monday Evening, 11/23/20: Stores are running out of hand sanitizer masks, paper towels, toilet paper, all the same things that occurred in the springtime. People are hoarding supplies again realizing that there may be trouble ahead. The CDC is cautioning folks that the vaccinations are "not going to be a walk in the park." Some people may feel sick after the shots but the flu-like symptoms and headaches typically dissipate after one day.

Note Added Tuesday, 11/24/20: California Governor Newsom and his family are in quarantine after exposure to someone with covid. New York opens a field hospital as the medical facilities become overrun with coronavirus patients. As more Americans become sick each day, and the death count increases, people busily make preparations to party all weekend long enjoying the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The US medical system will likely buckle as the new year begins.

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