The action over the last few months is analogous to the near empty tube of toothpaste. To get your money's worth, you start at the far end and roll the tube, or simply squeeze it evenly, all the way across to the opening so every last bit of toothpaste can be used. The monthly chart shows price creeping higher, with indicators in a sick cancerous sideways move, with very little life remaining but every last ounce of energy is being squeezed out of the markets right now. Once that is gone, the tube is empty. Drops out of rising wedges have potential to be very dramatic. Projection is down anytime, if not, topping in Q1 (Feb-Mar) should occur. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The more people call tops(demark, eliades, et al.), the higher the market continues to climb. Uncle Ben completely has the bears under control. Even Keybot has been long and strong for over a month now. When was the last time that happened? 1527 will happen this week...
ReplyDeleteVery good point Anon, that's the way it always seems to go. Keybot is long for seven weeks probably the longest in its five-year history. 1518 should lead to 1522. The December 2007 top is of interest at 1523-1524. With all that said, it would not be surprising at all to see a large drop. UTIL 470-ish is key, if utes weaken and lose 470, the downside will start to accelerate very strongly and sub 1500 will easily occur.
Deleteanon, glad you mentioned 1527; that is my preferred target for the spx to hit before a 30-50 point reversal starts, followed by another -5th- wave to my preferred 1550 target zone. after that we'll likely see a ~75 point correction; right to the mid BB as Keystone mentioned, because although the mid BB is at 1353, price will absiolutely NOT just fall from current levels to that. as we all know, and keystone also!, tops take time, markets role over before falling (hard) and during that time the mid BB will also climb higher. We're talking weeks here, so by then the BB will be much higher.
ReplyDeleteWhat also worries me about the bear case is that the BBs on the monthly are now expanding... that means price has some serious strength... time will tell though...
Good points Arnie. The rally is four years old from March 2009, a very long rally by historical standards. Typically a catalyst occurs, so, say if Spain lays an egg over the next couple days, or the Cyprus bailout, although tiny, will determine how bond holders are treated and ripple through for Europe moving forward, that may lay an egg, that is all it takes and we will be dropping thru 1500 and much lower in no time.
ReplyDeleteI agree, the upper 1400s need to re-tested for price to see if it likes to be really this far up.
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