The euro and SPX move in lock-step. Euro up = markets up. Euro down = markets down. The blue line is the euro and the green line is the SPX. Note the euro now up inside the purple rising wedge. The SPX has moved up inside the green rising wedge. Rising wedges are bearish patterns. Everything comes to a head now waiting for the ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference tomorrow morning (red circle). Japan and the U.S. are printing dough like there is no tomorrow while Europe watches like a deer in the headlight. Some say the recent strength in the euro points to good times ahead and an economy that is recovering. Not likely. The euro is being pumped by Draghi the Magician and as long as the euro is up, the markets are up. Draghi will probably not cut rates tomorrow, however, if he as so much as hints in a sentence that he must look to weakening the euro to spur growth, the euro will plummet and so will equity markets. If Draghi stands pat and put on a good front of confidence saying all is fine, the euro will remain buoyant and so will equities.
Note how the euro and SPX move in lock-step but the euro was on top until the wild upside SPX orgy to start the year when the fiscal cliff can-kicking was announced. The euro spends time under the SPX recently but the hype and bullish euphoria in the markets right now is overriding the euro strength. Tomorrow will tell the tale. Today's market action may be flat since Drahgi will decide the fate of all trades in the morning providing a thumbs up, or down, for the euro, and the U.S. equity markets will follow. ECB Decision is 7:45 AM EST not the 7:30 shown in the chart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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