The holiday is over. All that remains of the President's Day cake is George Washington's left ear and Lincoln's hat. Copper is key this morning as shown in the prior charts. Watch JJC 46.50 as a bull-bear line in the sand. The broad indexes will sell off if JJC loses 46.50 which appears to be on tap. UTIL 468.08 is also important today. If both the JJC 46.50 and UTIL 468 levels fail, Keybot the Quant, Keystone's trading algorithm, will likely flip short. Keybot has been long since 12/31/12. For the SPX today, starting at 1520, the bulls need to create a new intraday high for 2013 today at 1524.69, if so, the upside will accelerate to test 1531. The bears need to push under the strong 1514-1515 support level to accelerate the downside. Friday's action tested this critical support and the SPX bounced. A move through 1516-1523 is sideways action. The 10-year yield is 1.99%. Under 2% is equity bear-friendly, above is equity bull-friendly. WTIC oil is testing the important 95.50 level (reference last weeks chart; type 'WTIC' into the search box above) this morning and has now bounced and sits near 96. Up oil = up markets. Down oil = down markets.
The Housing Market Index hits at 10 AM so markets may experience a stutter step. As mentioned on the weekend, the housing sector is uber important this week and will likely decide if the broad indexes top and roll over, or, if the upside continues. There are several companies reporting earnings this week in the housing sector so their guidance forward is key, the earnings will surely show blowout numbers. The Housing Starts are the most important economic number this week at 8:30 AM tomorrow. DELL and HLF earnings will provide drama today after the bell. Pay attention to the copper (JJC), utilities ($UTIL), volatility ($VIX) and retail (RTH) sectors today. The Sequestration is only ten days away. President Obama will make a speech this morning concerning the automatic spending cuts, using the firemen as props.
NAHB Housing Index falled? Cooper is in free falling? China reduced the free accesible money? Oil is weak?
ReplyDeleteWho the "F...annie and Mae" cares ? :D?
We have to see new all time highs in the central banks pumped markets :) ...soon (1-3 months) we will be there :)!
"Heil" Bernanke and thank you for this market! :)
I feel very wealthy already :) ... "a la Weimar" ! :D!
V.
this is how a bubble is created ...just like the tulips thing in Holland (century.16)
Deletethe road to hell is paved with good intentions , isn't it so?
:)
V.
KS, what do you think about the thesis that chart patterns trump indicators, especially in strongly trending markets?
ReplyDeleteI ask because many indicators have been negative for a while, while, during the same time, the main indices have been in nice bullish parallel channels.
The negative divergences are creating the pull backs but it is the Fed pumping that keeps inflating markets. We are at an interesting juncture. The economic data is lackluster, copper now dropping for a couple weeks, oil is lackluster, but traders are optimistic, the German sentiment blew out estimates this morning but their auto sales and manufacturing withers away. The Fed has the strong hand, that is what the action currently shows but that should end with weak commodities. So it is basically some short duration mixed signals due to all the central banker intervention. The copper weakness is a game-changer but the markets do not care, very interesting.
ReplyDelete