New Home Sales data was far better than expected, ditto Consumer Confidence. The SPX popped but then collapsed at the 10 AM pivot. RTH moved above 45.54 at the opening bell as anticipated so the bulls were happy. The financials are hurting today. Pay close attention since financials are what everyone expects to lead the continued rally. XLF lost the critical 17.21 bull-bear line in the sand this morning which should lead to strong market selling. However, the bulls are fighting back and the XLF bumps along 15.18-15.23. Look for the potential flush lower with the XLF from here which would immediately drag the broad markets lower. TRIN is 1.33 verifying that the bears are in control today. The 10-year yield is 1.85% stepping lower into further disinflation and deflation. WTIC oil popped above 93 but is now well below again. The euro is 1.3055. The SPX is moving sideways today. The LOD is 1485.01 after the 1488 level failed. Keystone took profits on the EWG short trade exiting the position. Germany should continue to trend lower, will consider reentering short.
Note Added 2/26/13 at 11:56 AM: Note the XLF printing 17.23; market bulls are mounting a come-back, now 17.24. Time will tell. The SPX LOD at 1485.01 holding the sturdy 1485 support level, for now. Market direction depends on XLF 17.21 right now, bulls win above, bears win below. VIX is 18.01. The SPX:VIX ratio is 82 starting to move down towards the critical 68 level which will require watching in the coming days.
Note Added 2/26/13 at 12:38 PM: The XLF is printing 17.32 firmly back in the bull camp; the bulls knew what to pump. The SPX now recovers printing 1493. VIX is 17.28 maintaining elevation above 15.70.
Note Added 2/26/13 at 1:28 PM: XLF is 17.27 so the bulls are hanging in there. VIX is 17.28. TRIN is 0.99 not favoring bulls or bears today. Whichever way the TRIN moves off of 1.00, the broad indexes will move opposite (TRIN down = markets up and TRIN up = markets down).
Note Added 2/26/13 at 2:47 PM: TRIN down to 0.86 so SPX up to 1496. XLF 17.31. VIX 16.98. AAPL punched under the 440 that Keystone has been harpin' about for the last three weeks or so. A tradeable Apple bottom, for a long, should appear at 420-440. Keystone bot IAG, a gold miner, opening a new long position. IAG displays attractive positive divergence on the weekly and daily charts.
Note Added 2/26/13 at 3:42 PM: The SPX near the highs of the day at 1498. TRIN 0.84. VIX 17.02. XLF 17.36. Keystone bot REE, a highly speculative and dangerous rare earth play, opening a new long position. REE is somewhat thinly traded with about 300K shares traded today thus far. REE, and other rare earths, such as MCP, are set up or are setting up with attractive positive divergence.
KS, what's your opinion on SPX, from a broad perspective, not necessarily focusing on one technical indicator or another: SPX languishes at 1490 (+/- 1-3 points), I know that 1490 is very important. If the trend gets below 1490 and stays there 1474 is on tap. If 1474 fails, 1450 is on tap.
ReplyDeleteCould this fact (stagnant markets around 1490) be some kind of sign of a coming up trend? Or due to coming facts (sequester, possible government shut-down in March) the market wants to be sure (more bearish power, more shorting money flows) it wants to go below 1490 ?
What's your opinion ...let's say for 1 or 2 weeks from now?
Thank you,
V.
The SPX daily chart shows weak and bleak indicators so even if a bounce is printed for today downside should resume, and we are so close to the 50-day then 1478 should be touched. Then the important 1459-1465 zone. So the best guess, to use wide ranges, at this juncture in time, perhaps a move down to 1459-1476, then bounce and come back up to 1505-1531, then roll over for extended down moving forward, with the SPX moving down through the 1400's as we move through spring and summer. The general weak global economy will likely disappoint everyone moving forward.
ReplyDelete@ KS:
DeleteThank you.
With slightly different numbers that was also my opinion.
So seems like we have now under construction the big multiannual top.
For sure it will take months of sideways in a certain area but... it will worth the wait ... a big short after the Peak is in .... and a big long starting in 2014 or 2015.
It will be quite a show :).
V.
KS, thanks for explaining whtt Bb and ES is, just wondering what time zone you send the comments in , as i dont see KS comments until later in the day, so the time you post it is not when i see the comments, i am based in the UK.
ReplyDeleteAlso the web page is a little slow, was wondering if the ads you have on the side eg. amazon books causes the page to be slow,when i scroll down it frames the page slower, like the screen is trying to catch up and i think it is cause of the icons on the side for book purchses etc. that maybe causing the slowness.
Things are posted at all hours 24/7 so there is no rhyme or reason as to when. Keystone typically does work in the early East Coast hours, watching the European markets and the Asian round-up, before U.S. markets open. A few S&P handles never makes much difference. Keystone is much more interested in you and others learning to fish rather than eating a fish dinner. If you learn to fish, you can have a fish dinner at anytime.
DeleteBlogspot is GOOG's program for bloggers and they made a switchover in 2012 where it now limits performance in all browsers except for GOOG Chrome. Updates were always done in Internet Explorer browser but that had to be abandoned since it can no longer function properly due to Google's actions. Therefore, sounds like your sticking problem may be similar. Download Google Chrome and use that as the browser for this and Keybot's site and see if that helps you. Also find your command for viewing the site with text only which would eliminate all the colors and simplify the presentation and probably speed the loading.
Given the low NYMO and the VIX spike, KS's target of 1510 retrace looks likely here. Plenty of time for resuming the downtrend in a week or two.
ReplyDeleteThe weak and bleakness shown on the daily SPX chart this morning hints at more weakness only after a brief pop, like today and tomorrow and then down again, so further downside may be on tap before the move back up. The 1459-1476 zone is a landing area. XLF will tell you the answer, now at 17.30. If XLF stays above 17.21, the indexes will float higher towards 1500, when XLF 17.21 fails, we will drop much lower probably into the zone mentioned.
DeleteThanks, KS. I am assuming a drop below 15.60 on the VIX will act in tandem with XLF above 17.21...?
ReplyDeleteWell, the XLF moved back above 17.21 in the afternoon on Tuesday so this helped the bulls recover. VIX remains above 15.70 helping bears. So, if bullish, you want to see the VIX under 15.70 (and yes, the XLF will be well above the 17.21). If bearish, you want to see the VIX stay above 15.70. Then, to gain bear fuel, the XLF 17.21 failure will create a market leg lower, and then, if UTIL loses 469, another strong market down leg will occur.
ReplyDelete