UTIL is at 472.49 three points short of 475.49 the bulls need to continue the upside fun. Thus, markets are churning along the strong 1509 S/R. The president announced some budget news this morning and the SPX jumped a few points higher to a HOD at 1510.18 short of the previous intraday and closing highs, so far. The 8 MA just pierced up through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute indicating bulilsh markets for the hours and days ahead so the games continue in this fickle market. The SPX price is moving down again so watch this 8/34 cross closely today. The move today is sideways remaining inside the 1497-1512 range, so far. SPX S/R is 1517, 1514.41 (intraday high for 2013), 1513.17 (closing high for 2013), 1511, 1509, 1505, 1503, 1500, 1498, 1495, 1489, 1485.45 (20-day MA), and 1485. The 1511 R has held price back so far.
The potential short-term H&S for the SPX is of interest (as discussed in the comments section yesterday with the e-mini's). Over the last six or seven days, the H&S shows a head at 1514, neck line at 1496, which yields a target of 1478. Watch price closely today; the right shoulder is now formed as the SPX is printing 1508. The H&S would be negated if price moves above 1513-1514. If price starts to fall today towards the neck line, and fails at 1495-1496, the downside target becomes the high 1470's. The TRIN favored the bears earlier in the session but now prints 0.93 favoring the bulls. The 10-year is 2.01%, above 2% so the equity bulls are happy. The euro remains elevated so markets remain elevated. VIX is 13.75 unable to hold 14. WTIC oil 96.83. Yields are up, euro is up, and oil is up so markets are up. Copper is flat which helps keep a lid on markets.
Great timing with the XHB charts this morning considering that TOL is downgraded. TOL chart is same as XHB so adapt the same technical analysis which is bearish. Watch the potential short-term H&S for the SPX, and the 8/34 MA cross described above. The utilities are key. Bulls win with with UTIL 475.49, bears win with UTIL 467.65. Today's action is a sideways malaise so far.
Note Added 2/5/13 at 1:42 PM: SPX is coming up to test the 1513-1514 highs. The time ahead also determines if the H&S pattern is in play, or not. UTIL is 473.58 two points under the 475.49 bulls need to continue the market upside.
Note Added 2/5/13 at 3:46 PM: The SPX printed a HOD at 1514.96 which takes out the previous intraday high for the year shown above. Watch the closing price in relation to 1513.17. UTIL is 472.61 three points under the important 475.49 the bulls need; in fact they are losing a little ground. UTIL 475.49 will be uber important tomorrow. TRIN is 0.83 which guaranteed the bullishness today. Keystone shorted RTH opening a new short position (short retail). Beautiful negative divergence on weekly and daily charts.
Note Added 2/5/13 at 3:56 PM: Keystone shorted more RTH.
Note Added 2/5/13 at 4:01 PM: The SPX took out the yearly intraday high by 55 cents, double nickels, for a new intraday high for 2013 at 1514.96, but the bulls could not produce a new closing high, finishing today at 1511.29, two points under the closing high for the year at 1513.17. Minute and hourly charts are set up with negative divergence with the matching and slightly higher high in the SPX; you know the drill from the last few days, this should usher in weakness tomorrow. Overnight risk reenters markets now and no one is pricing it in. Europe, Japan or China may lay an egg on any given evening here on out that would affect U.S. markets before the open. UTIL closed at 472.52 three points away from the critical bull-bear line at 475.49. Here comes Snow White, Pluto and Goofy, but those are just the floor traders, not Disney officials. DIS earnings in a few minutes.
Note Added 2/5/13 at 4:18 PM: The Mouse House beats on top and bottom lines, but only by a hair on each. DIS bounces one percent in AH's trading.
Hy KS,
ReplyDeleteSorry for extra-posting here yesterday. :) Just got very...let's say... communicative yesterday under the influence of some ..liquids. :).
I have an idea for you: depending on the volume of the internet traffic on your blog do you think that a poll on a weekly or monthly basis would be a good idea? Something like : " what's your feeling for next week : bullish or bearish?" with polls results visible.
Regarding that H&S I guess it will be negated, the right shoulder gets too extended already.
The target 1520-1527 as a topping target remains for me as on this Friday or next Monday-11.feb.13.
One more thing: on 10.feb.13 a new chinese Horoscope : the year of black snake :). I've read a JP Morgan report on stocks behaviour in Snake's years..very interesting.
oh, 1929 was also a year of Snake ... love those years! Everything is smooth and shiny and the next day it's the hell on earth!
If you check an yearly/monthly chart of VIX great moves might be expected this year :).
Love Snakes :) .... guess Snakes love VIX :D
V.
That is interesting that the Snake was in 1929 as well. China data hits Friday then the week-long celebration will begin for New Year's. This site strives to be objective and call the action as the charts dictate, so a poll may reflect the readership, half bulls and half bears. Sometimes polls, or site traffic is a better indicator if the site is a perma bull site or a perma bear site, then the traffic would serve as an indication of sentiment. Your e-mini H&S remains in play, top two days ago for the head is 1510. It's close to negating the pattern but there is always leeway. It may be the Quasimodo H&S where the right shoulder and head are at similar heights, like the hunchback of Notre Dame. The triple top in the SPX in Sept-Oct was a funkier H&S.
ReplyDeleteQuasimodo H&S? I didn't knew about that. I've googled that and learned more. You know a lot of things, I have to say. I've learned today something new.
DeleteThank you,
V.
Quasimodo H&S is a bit of a joke V. Quasimodo was the Hunchback of Notre Dame, the famous novel and several movies were made as well. The main character was Quasimodo who would ring the bell tower. He had a horrible hump back. So the way price came up today to place the right shoulder (if it holds), Keystone jokingly calls it a Quasimodo H&S since the right shoulder and head are at the same relative level. Tomorrow is a big day, SPX either punches higher gaining UTIL 475.49 to confirm the SPX 1520's ahead, or collapses falling thru 1500 in quick order.
Deleteok KS. And it UTIL 475.49 resist, and the price lowers, can you approximate now what are the lines in the sand for UTIL and JJC that might trigger a "short" stance for Keybot the Quant ? And maybe a level of SPX where this stance change might appear? I know that those are relative levels and can change from one day to another , but I'm just curious.
Deletethank you,
V.
@ KS: for exemple, one of my lines in teh sand for a turn of the markets it's the yield for US 10ybonds - at 2,4-2,5% a strong lower reaction (as yield and as spx levels) should be very visible on charts.
DeleteV.
@ KS:
DeleteI know that spx usually tops with double tops or head and shoulders patterns. What i'm seeing now it's alike a megaphone topping pattern. And this usually announces a reversal. is it a megaphone here or it's just an illusion?
Thanks,
V.
So how long does the bull orgy continue?
ReplyDeleteWatch UTIL 475.49 closely, for the next leg higher for the broad indexes, the bulls must go thru UTIL 475.49, it held today, if it holds, the markets have very limited upside and should turn down.
DeleteI think the market will continue to go up unless it goes down.
ReplyDeleteKS, would the last three days of action constitute a bearish stick sandwich?
ReplyDeleteKS, is there only a daily timeframe for util,no hourly , how do u monitor the util more frequetly live?
ReplyDelete@ KS, all:
ReplyDeletehttp://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/428/6039/original.jpg
(credits for this pic go to a guy called V2 from another blog)
the very proof that this market is not acting naturally and is driven by a bunch of algo-bots, acting only on predefined mathematical formula and predefined acting levels. That's why sometimes the good news / or the bad news are not considered and the stock price keeps going on.
Just a guess, so to speak....
V.
For UTIL, you can follow it in real-time with $UTIL on any platform. Stockharts requires a membership to access the minute and hourly charts. Nonetheless, you can follow the daily chart on stockcharts, and simply refresh the daily chart often and at least you are receiving the current print.
ReplyDeleteThe advantage of Keybot is that it trades on 1's and 0's taking emotion out of the game and it has been long for five weeks now since the end of 2012. This is an interesting time for markets, the main event, the ECB rate decision, is only 24 hours away now. The move in the euro will move global markets this time tomorrow, it will be a circus. Draghi is getting a haircut today to prepare for his Andy Warhol fame in the morning.