NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40 MA Cross Cyclical Bull Market

The bulls slapped the bears in the face over the last two weeks sending the NYA above the 40-week MA, a critical overall stock market cyclical signal. Price is above the 40-week MA signaling a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market ahead. The bears better work to send the NYA lower pronto or they will receive a summer of pain as the bulls celebrate on the beach. The cyclical bear market began last July and ended two weeks ago.

If you are a longer term trader, you need to follow the 150-day MA slopes for the SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT, the UPS 20/50-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to figure out the cyclical market path ahead. All seven indicators are charted this evening so scroll back to review the charts or type the ticker symbol into the search box at the right to bring up the chart.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's are sloping higher, the SPX is above the 12-month MA and the NYA is above the 40-week MA all cyclical bull market signals. The RUT 150-day MA is sloping negatively and the UPS 20/50 cross is negative maintaining cyclical bear market signals. When all seven of these signals are in the same camp, you will be completely sure that stocks have chosen that direction forward for the weeks and months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Quarterly Reminder

It is time for the Quarterly Reminder;

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Remember to help your local food banks since there are lots of folks that are hungry in society; some are too proud to ask for help so the food bank is one discreet way they can receive aid. Children need food in their bellies to learn properly. Go through your kitchen cupboards and load canned goods into a bag and donate it to your local food bank; lots of people would appreciate receiving that style of beans or perhaps creamed corn that you no longer prefer.

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Major Indexes Moving into Cyclical Bull Market Patterns with 150-Day MA's Sloping Higher

Keystone warned that a cyclical bear market had begun for stocks in August of last year. That is when the 150-day MA slope turned negative. It is a very useful signal for all of your stock trades. If you are long a stock or index, you want the 150-day MA sloping upwards; if is not, your trade is in serious trouble. Conversely, if you are short a trade, you want that ticker to display a negatively-sloping 150 to prove your path is correct; if the 150-day is sloping higher and you are short you are in trouble.

There are four major indexes you want to monitor. Of course the big kahuna, the S&P 500, the SPX, is the key broad market index. Professional traders use the SPX as the key index. The Dow Industrials, INDU, DJI, the Dirty Thirty, are 30 blue chip, dividend, multi-national stocks, the big boys on the block. The Dow is what the general public follows and historic data decades back pertains to the Dow. The COMPQ is the Nasdaq Composite which provides insight into tech, biotech and high-flying stocks. The RUT is the Russell 2000 that provides insight into the small caps.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ charts show that the 150-day moving average's are sloping higher beginning over the last two or three weeks sending stocks into a cyclical bull market pattern. This is a strong punch in the bear's face. The small caps are the last hold-out that will either confirm the bullish upside joy, or, instead cause the other three indexes to reverse and turn negative again. The RUT moves above its 200-day MA today a big victory for bulls and slap to the bear's face. The Russell price is above the 150-day so by definition this will curl the 150 higher. Bears need to send the RUT lower pronto.

Note that pesky RUT 150-day MA. It is not sloping higher yet. The cyclical (weeks and months) bear market remains in play for small caps ever since late last summer. Monitor the 150-day MA slope for the RUT going forward as well as the fight at the 200-day MA. Each day that the RUT stays above the 200-day is another nail in the bear's coffin. The RUT 150-day MA slope will either confirm that the stock market negativity selling will resume, as it does now, or, the 150 will flatten out and then slope higher to prove that the overall stock market has turned around and is now in a full-fledged bull market pattern.

If you are a longer term trader, you need to follow the 150-day MA slopes for the SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT, the UPS 20/50-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to figure out the cyclical market path ahead. All seven indicators are charted this evening so scroll back to review the charts or type the ticker symbol into the search box at the right to bring up the chart.

The SPX, INDU and COMPQ 150-day MA's are sloping higher, the SPX is above the 12-month MA and the NYA is above the 40-week MA all cyclical bull market signals. The RUT 150-day MA is sloping negatively and the UPS 20/50 cross is negative maintaining cyclical bear market signals. When all seven of these signals are in the same camp, you will be completely sure that stocks have chosen that direction forward for the weeks and months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Upper Band Violation

The SPX daily chart is setting up negatively with the rising wedge and overbot stochastics. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators that want price to receive a smack down. The green line for the RSI shows long and strong juice remaining in the very near term so a jog move may be needed (one day down one day up then down) but overall the chart wants to see a price drop begin at anytime.

The collapses out of rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The pink arrows show the tight standard deviation band squeezes. In February, price was squeezed out lower hitting the lower band then recoiling higher to the upper band in late February. Right now, price is squeezed out higher, and hits the upper band. Will it perform the mirror image fractal of February? If so, price would now recoil lower towards the lower band at 2025. At a minimum, the middle band at 2059 is in play since the upper band has been violated.

The ADX is at 18 which is quite surprising. An ADX above 25-ish says a downward move in price is in a strong downtrend, or, an upward move in price is in a strong uptrend. As the stock market tanked to begin the year falling into the 2/11/16 bottom, note that the ADX was rocking and rolling between 30 and 40. This firmly verified that the downward move in price was a strong trend lower. Then the rally began and the ADX petered out and falls under 25-ish. The bears knew in late February that the strong down move in the stock market was over.

It is surprising that the ADX is not above 30 right now. For the robust move higher in stocks over the last two months and all the euphoria, you would think it is a strong trend higher. Nope. The ADX is even at a lower value than two weeks ago when April started. The big rally in stocks is not a strong uptrend. The volume today is on the low side so there is no conviction for bulls to take stocks higher. Much of the move higher in stocks is frustrated shorts covering creating bull fuel. The catalyst is the central bankers always anxious to pump stocks with promises of easy money.

The low CPC put/call from last week has hinted that a market top is at hand. This gels with the chart above, and the previous 2-hour chart, that are agreeable for a pull back to begin. Watch the RSI to see if the bulls can keep the rally alive for another day or two. ECB President Draghi plans to fire a money bazooka on Thursday morning promising more easy money. The central bankers are powerful and may paint the tape green. If the chart negativity plays out as described, perhaps Draghi drops his money bazooka on the floor in a couple days and it is exposed as shooting blanks.

The SPX stopped at the 2093-2094 resistance. A move higher will take price to 2099 next. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The central bankers are very active over the last month with the ECB pumping stocks, followed by the Fed, then the Easter bullish seasonality helped, then another Fed pump and now the ECB is on tap again on Thursday. The printing press is powerful. After each pump, the 2-hour chart has to reset to price-in the artificial juice. The stochastics are overbot and the RSI is near overbot. The red lines show a rising wedge (bearish) with price in the apex now. The red lines show the indicators in universal negative divergence over the one month and one week time frames, however, the bulls keep fighting to create a tinge of strength more with the MACD line (tiny green line).

The chart favors the bears and a spankdown would be expected to begin at anytime. If the MACD and/or RSI lines squeeze out a bit more near-term lift, that would delay the top for two candlesticks, about 2 to 4 hours. So stocks would be expected to top out anytime between now and sometime tomorrow morning. The low CPC put/call from last week hints that a substantive high is at hand so this may form an allegiance with the neggie d described and finally give the bears a turn at bat.

ECB President Draghi is shining up his money bazooka and is in standby to create higher stock markets on Thursday with his Keynesian firepower. Reference the SPX S/R missive for the support and resistance of interest. The 2089 was strong overhead resistance and price poked through so 2093-2094 is the next strong R. HOD is 2093 so the bulls bumped their heads up against this resistance. It would be a logical choice for an area for price to top out. If 2094 gives way, 2099 is the next resistance target. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:57 PM EST:  The SPX tests the strong 2093-2094 resistance with about one hour of trading remaining. It is time for price to bounce, or die. The bulls are trying to sneak the RSI higher to extend the top for a couple more hours.

Note Added 6:49 PM EST: The SPX ends the day at 2094 to maintain the drama and intrigue.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Index Daily Chart Battle to Retake 200-Day MA

The RUT is at an important pivot as this message is typed. Price and the 200-day MA are each at 1131.50-ish. The Russell will either bounce or die from here and take the entire broad market with it. Note how price has used the 20-day MA a support on the way up and is now trying to regain the 200-day MA not seen since last August. The other three major indexes, SPX (S&P 500), INDU (Dow Jones Industrials) and COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite), are all above their respective 200-day's so it is a very big deal as to whether the small caps join the upside party, or not. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:19 AM EST: The RUT is at 1132.57 moving higher and poking a stick int he bear's eye. This battle should continue. Watch it closely over the next couple days.

Note Added 11:14 AM EST:  Bulls are running with lower volatility and higher copper. Softer oil prices are ignored. The RUT is at 1134.40 and the HOD is above 1135; price popped after regaining the 200-day. The SPX is testing the strong 2089 resistance right now so that is worth watching (see previous SPX S/R missive); the 2093-2094 R is next if price pokes up through 2089. The SPX prints a new high for the year.

Note Added 2:28 PM EST: The RUT is at the high of the day above 1138.  The bulls are punching the bears in the face. The SPX pokes up through 2089 so 2093-2094 is targeted and the high is 2093 thus far. Price will seek 2099 if the 2093-2094 resistance gives way.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 4/18/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 4/18/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For 2016, the intraday high for the year is 2087.84 on 4/14/16 and the closing high for the year is 2082.78 on 4/14/16. The SPX begins the week at 2081 up +1.8% on the year and about 20 handles higher on the month thus far.

For 2016, the intraday low for the year is 1810.10 on 8/11/16 and the closing low thus far for the year is 1829.08. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

For Monday, 4/18/16, with the SPX starting at 2081, the bulls need to push above 2083 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2076 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2077-2082 is sideways action to begin the week but since it is such a tight range, a winner will likely be chose. S&P futures are -8 so the bears want to test that 2076 level at the opening bell. The 2071 and 2067 are very strong support levels.

The SPX has exploded higher over the last month due to the central banker intervention especially the ECB and Federal Reserve. Price is playing around at the highs from November and December of 2014. The highs for the year thus far printed last Thursday and note that on Friday price bumped its head against the closing high for the year and could not venture higher. The 2081-2084 level is a strong resistance gauntlet. If price pops up through it will run to the strong 2089 R.

Price is very extended above the moving averages and desperately needs to back kiss levels. Golden crosses are occurring in sectors such as XLB and XLI but as Keystone often laments, a golden cross typically leads to a near-term pull back just as a death cross typically leads to a temporary rally. The CPC put/call printed an uber low 0.60-ish last Wednesday hinting that a near-term top is at hand.

The SPX was testing the important 12-month MA at 2031 three weeks ago and the bulls won. That price move results in the sideways to sideways higher move afterwards. Bears got nothing until the 20-day MA at 2056, and rising, is tested and fails. That 2056-2061 support area is key so if that fails the bears will be in business. Above this range and bulls are not too worried.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest S/R is 2093-2094, 2089, 2079-2084, 2071, 2067, 2061, 2057, 2046, 2038-2040, 2032, 2017-2023, 2011, 2002, 1997, 1993 and 1985-1988.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2114

2110

2109

2104

2103

2102

2100

2099

2097

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2093

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2089

2088 (4/14/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2087.84)

2087.84 Previous Week’s High

2086

2084

2083.22 Friday HOD

2083 (4/14/16 Closing High for 2016: 2082.78)

2081

2080.73 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2080

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2077

2076.31 Friday LOD

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2074

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2072

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067

2065

2064

2063

2061

2059.74 April Begins Here

2057

2056.46 (20-day MA)

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053

2052

2050

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)

2044

2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here

2042

2040

2039.74 Previous Week’s Low

2038

2037.64 (20-month MA)

2037.29 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2034

2032

2031.93 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

2030

2029.47 (50-week MA)

2023

2022.97 (100-week MA)

2022

2021.27 (10-month MA)

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2017

2014.02 (200-day MA)

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

2001.97 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

1998

1997

1995

1994.29 (100-day MA)

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1990.13 (50-day MA)

1989.18 (20-week MA)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1987

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1980

1979

1978

1977

1973

1970

1969

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1961

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1948

1943

1942

1937

1936.97 (150-week MA)

1936

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1920

1917

1914

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1873

1872

1870

1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)

1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)

1865

1862

1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)

1855

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1841

1840

1839

1835

1831

1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)

1828

1827

1824

1820.72 (200-week MA)

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)

1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796

1793

1791

1788

1785

1783

1782

1781

1795.13 (50-month MA)

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts Signal Near-Term Market Top

Trader complacency is rampant with the low CPC yesterday at 0.62. And why wouldn't traders be complacent? The Fed wine is flowing like water. Bulls have benefited from the ECB pump in March, then the Fed pump, then the positive seasonality with the Easter holiday, and then another Fed pump. The central bankers are the market. The bears have been ripped off over the last three weeks due in large part to the power of the central bankers.

The CPC moves steadily lower for the last three months indicating more and more complacency occurring as stocks move higher and higher off the 2/11/16 low. The CPC put/call was highlighted in mid-March, which did result in a pull back in stocks but if you blinked you missed it. The SPX lost only 20 points and recovered as Draghi and Yellen continue to promise to drop money from helicopters forever. For that low mid-March print at 0.68 for the CPC the pull back in the SPX would have been expected to be about 30 to 100 handles and only a paltry 20 occurred.

Fear and panic sets in when the CPC is above 1.20 and this is where market bottoms occur since everyone is far too negative. You always buy when there is blood in the streets and the CPC above 1.20 tells you that the blood is flowing with carnage everywhere. The market bears have been jipped for three weeks. Note the CPC moved higher to 1.15 but did not even get above the 1.20 threshold to place a proper market bottom. Nonetheless, stocks catapult higher riding the white wings of the Yellen dove, a new species of bird that can print money.

So stocks move choppy sideways with an upward bias and the SPX prints at 2083 for the last couple days. Okay, now what Einstein? Stocks should place a top at anytime, any hour, any day forward due to the uber complacency verified by the low CPC; the top may be in now. The SPX should drop from 30 to 100 handles over the coming days or week or three once the selloff begins. Since the bears were jipped over the last three weeks, they may fight back with a vengeance. The standard expectation would be that stocks will sell off until the CPC moves above 1.20. At that time, it is time to scale out of shorts and start moving into longs.

It will be interesting to see if the bears can now bite off their pound of flesh in the near-term. The CPCE put/call ratio is at 0.68 not quite as low as would be expected to reinforce the CPC's low number above. However, the CPCE is in a very uncharacteristic tight sideways chop and has not moved higher to properly identify a firm market bottom in the last three weeks (just like the CPC) so it is very open to stocks selling off in the near-term until fear and panic is created. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side shortly after this morning's opening bell at SPX 2056. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side in these choppy, saw tooth, sideways markets. Watch GTX 2146, NYA 10120 and XLF 22.14 to determine broad market direction. All three flipped bullish this morning and prices remain above these key levels identified by Keybot. Bears can only stop the stock market upside by moving one of the three parameters into the bear camp. GTX is leaking lower down to 2152. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

USD US Dollar Index Daily Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Dicvergence

The US dollar index daily chart is set to launch higher due to positive divergence, a falling wedge and oversold conditions. Considering the daily chart, a long position can be placed on the dollar right now scaling in expecting a bottom in the dark green circle. Keystone does not hold any trades on currency right now but a long play such as UUP or short against the FXE may be considered for this week. The long dollar trade is more attractive than short euro. The USD will likely bounce and rally over the next couple weeks but then likely roll back over to the downside again to honor the weakness on the weekly chart indicators.

So as the consensus of market participants lament early this week that the US dollar index will continue lower with no end in sight, the opposite is highly likely. The USD will likely print a low this week and stage a nice sharp recovery rally in this daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.