Monday, April 18, 2016

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The central bankers are very active over the last month with the ECB pumping stocks, followed by the Fed, then the Easter bullish seasonality helped, then another Fed pump and now the ECB is on tap again on Thursday. The printing press is powerful. After each pump, the 2-hour chart has to reset to price-in the artificial juice. The stochastics are overbot and the RSI is near overbot. The red lines show a rising wedge (bearish) with price in the apex now. The red lines show the indicators in universal negative divergence over the one month and one week time frames, however, the bulls keep fighting to create a tinge of strength more with the MACD line (tiny green line).

The chart favors the bears and a spankdown would be expected to begin at anytime. If the MACD and/or RSI lines squeeze out a bit more near-term lift, that would delay the top for two candlesticks, about 2 to 4 hours. So stocks would be expected to top out anytime between now and sometime tomorrow morning. The low CPC put/call from last week hints that a substantive high is at hand so this may form an allegiance with the neggie d described and finally give the bears a turn at bat.

ECB President Draghi is shining up his money bazooka and is in standby to create higher stock markets on Thursday with his Keynesian firepower. Reference the SPX S/R missive for the support and resistance of interest. The 2089 was strong overhead resistance and price poked through so 2093-2094 is the next strong R. HOD is 2093 so the bulls bumped their heads up against this resistance. It would be a logical choice for an area for price to top out. If 2094 gives way, 2099 is the next resistance target. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:57 PM EST:  The SPX tests the strong 2093-2094 resistance with about one hour of trading remaining. It is time for price to bounce, or die. The bulls are trying to sneak the RSI higher to extend the top for a couple more hours.

Note Added 6:49 PM EST: The SPX ends the day at 2094 to maintain the drama and intrigue.

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