By K E Stone (Keystone)
Coronavirus (aka COVID-19, covid, China Flu, China Virus,
Wuhan Flu, Wuhan Virus and various Greek alphabet names such as alpha, beta,
gamma and delta) has killed over 4,000,000 people around the world. The once in
a century pandemic has devastated every country on earth. Coronavirus was
likely released from one of the Wuhan Laboratories (all of the laboratories are
not known to the West), either accidentally or intentionally.
China refuses to cooperate with the world to find out the
origin of COVID-19. The communists know the truth and do not want to be held
liable for paying reparations to the entire world. A political spy novelist
could never imagine such a story line and yet this is the modern world in 2021.
The world is in wave 5 of the pandemic as the chart above
shows. Hopefully, it will fizzle out quickly and the downtrend can resume.
Southeast Asia, Africa, UK and eastern Europe, and Central America and Mexico,
are the current covid hot zones. The virus does ‘not go gentle into that good
night’ stealing words from Dylan Thomas.
On a positive note, the daily deaths around the world have
been in a downtrend since early May. The 7-day MA trend line for daily deaths
worldwide is at 7.6K deaths per day. That remains a sad, elevated number but it
is better than nearly twice that death rate 2 months ago. Now that daily cases
are rising worldwide again, however, deaths may level off over the coming month
and begin basing (moving sideways).
The jury is out on the United States wave 5 as the daily new
cases chart shows above. The daily cases have been on the upswing since
mid-June and both the 3 and 7-day MA trend lines confirmed the uptrend.
Friday’s daily cases were 18.4K the highest of the week but not dramatically.
The holiday weekend occurs so the data reporting and summations take a back
seat to hotdogs, beer and fireworks.
The numbers are expected to be low through the holiday weekend
and they are; 8.9K daily new cases on Saturday, 5.0K cases on Sunday (July 4th)
and 4.4K cases Monday (yesterday). This is a fantastic trend lower and smacks
wave 5 in the face before it has a chance to get out of the gate, however, the
data was expected to slump through the weekend.
The rubber meets the road this week as the data gathering
and reporting play catch-up from the holiday fun. The US daily new cases today
through Friday will likely dictate whether Americans have a happy, or sad,
summer ahead. Watch the 18.4K daily new case level for the US; the Friday high.
It will be serious trouble and wave 5 will be underway if the 18.4K cases are
taken out to the upside any day this week. If not, wave 5 will be a pig in a
poke and only amount to a covid pimple on Uncle Sam’s backside.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above. This is a great
chart. Deaths keep dropping. That is what we want; the deaths are dropping and
not the people. Note the huge spike in deaths at the start of the pandemic when
the old folks were dropping like flies. That first wave wiped out a lot of
people over 60 years old especially those with comorbidities such as diabetes
and heart issues. Wave 3 then wiped out any older person thinking they had beat
the devil. The wave 3 grim reaper also points his bony finger at the obese.
Every pound you are overweight increases your risk for dying from coronavirus.
When wave 4 hit, note what happened to the US death chart.
It levels off but the downtrend remains intact. This verifies the pundit
comments that even though daily cases may rise and create a new wave of
infections, the deaths do not rise anymore. The old folks, people with
comorbidities and the fatso’s, are dead now. Coronavirus performs the culling.
Darwin would call it the evolution of the species.
The 3 and 7-day MA trend lines for US daily deaths slope
downward and will hopefully tag zero. The 3-day MA drops to 55 deaths per day
the lowest since the start of the pandemic! The 3-day will move back up for the
next few days but a lower low below 55 in about a week will be even better
news. The 7-day MA for US deaths is down to 203 deaths per day; this needs to
keep dropping.
The death numbers are low so people believe their risk level
is low (even if you get sick you will not die) although this is likely true
only for the vaccinated folks. The unvaccinated folks must remain vigilant a
little while longer as regional outbreaks occur in the southern US and out
west.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) modelis at 602K US deaths. IHME adjusted
their chart presentations. The reported deaths are now charted, which are 602K
deaths, and also the excess deaths, now at 930K, running at about a 1.5 factor (930/602)
above the reported data. Excess mortality refers to the potential number of
deaths when accounting for other factors (which the IHME explains) in addition
to the reported deaths.
For example, the India death count is likely 2 to 5 times
higher than reported. This was common knowledge at the height of the pandemic
as the funeral pyres burned in the streets and the black smoke turned day into
night. India only reported hospital deaths not the people dying in the parking
lots or at home. Tragically, tens if not hundreds of thousands died simply
because there was no oxygen to aid their failing lungs. The world has to do a
better job with oxygen supplies; it is not rocket science.
Clicking the India tab on the IHME web site, there are 400Kreported deaths but the excess mortality projection is 1.1 million Indiansdead. This is a factor of 2.8 to 1 (1.1/0.4); roughly 3 times as many deaths
occurred in India as has been reported which is in line with the people
reporting from the streets.
The Worldometer data is at 621K US deaths, the Johns-Hopkinsdata is at 606K deaths and the CDC is at 603K deaths so all four data sources
are roughly cross-checking each other; 602K deaths, 621K, 606K and 603K. Over
600K Americans have been cut down by the Wuhan Virus. Coronavirus has changed most
lives on earth forever.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker reports new hospital admissionstrending lower; sort of. Over the last couple weeks, admissions were increasing
but now subside again during the holiday weekend. Hospitalizations flatlinedfor a couple weeks but now roll over lower on the lighter holiday data. No one
wants to go to the hospital on a holiday. Instead, you may as well enjoy what
might be your Last Supper and swig of beer.
The CDC hospitalization charts likely only dipped due to the
holiday so, like the daily new cases discussion above, give it a few days as
the data plays catch-up and the numbers line out. The sideways move and
leveling-off of the hospital data may indicate that the efficacy of the
vaccinations is decreasing over time.
Otherwise, the lower trend in admissions and hospitalizations
should continue even if it is a very gradual move lower. The July 4th holiday
arrives at an inopportune time since it plops down in the middle of the most
important sets of data that will gauge if wave 5 is occurring in the United
States, or if it is just a tiny insignificant blip that will be stripped of its
wave number.
President Biden failed to reach the goals of 70% of USadults vaccinated with at least one dose by Independence Day and having 160million adults fully vaccinated. Biden is the master at under promising and
over delivering, a technique employed by astute politicians, but as the ole
saying goes, ‘sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you’. No
one expected the vaccination rate to perform a cliff-dive more dramatic than a leap
from the cliffs of Krabi, Thailand. The drop in the vaccination rate sunk Joe’s
ship.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows the vaccination rate droppingto 556K shots per day in the United States. For the last few days, the rate
drops below 500K per day and lower to levels not seen since the vaccination
program began in December and January.
The Whitehouse, CDC, NIH, and everyone involved on the
medical side, are performing a full court press (basketball lingo which means
they are working hard and pressuring people as much as possible to get
vaccinated) to encourage people to take the shot (basketball lingo again) but
it is hard to hear this messaging over the rock and roll music playing at the
parties. Whitehouse spokesperson Jeffrey Zients proclaims, “We are doubling
down on efforts. If not vaccinated, get vaccinated.”
The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) provides insightful dataon vaccination trends. 86% of democrats are vaccinated compared to 61%
independents and 52% republicans. Sure enough, the least vaccinated states line
out as republican-leaning states and the most vaccinated states are
democrat-leaning states. The republican states, however, are getting a bad rap
because there are other factors involved.
Many new outbreaks are in rural areas where folks tend to
not get vaccinated because they are not around people often. Also, some of the
republican states have large portions of the black population that are not
getting vaccinated. Much of this is not due to availability but rather ongoing
mistrust after years of medical abuse with such atrocities such as the Tuskegee
Syphilis Experiments.
Left-leaning pundits blame the Neandertal, knuckle-dragging,
beer-bellied republicans for the low vaccination rates in the US but in truth,
people of all ethnicities, colors, religions and beliefs are vaccinated and
unvaccinated. As Rodney King said after he was beaten-up by the LAPD, “whycan’t we all just get along?”
The Whitehouse is targeting the young population 18 to 29
years old since only 55% of this group is vaccinated. The 30 to 49-year old’s
are not much better at 59%. Young people are carefree and want to live life and
have fun coronavirus be damned. The young are getting infected at a higher
percentage than other age groups which jives with the low vaccination rate data.
The young are also stronger and although they test positive for covid they tend
to not die or require hospitalization.
Young republicans and young blacks are two key areas of
focus for the US vaccination program. 29% of Americans say they are likely not
going to get the shot with 20%, 1 in 5 Americans, saying they will never take
the shot. They will ‘never break the chain’ as Stevie Nicks and Fleetwood Macwould sing years ago.
With almost 70% of Americans vaccinated with at least one
shot, and perhaps another 20% to 30% having natural antibodies, it is easy to
see that herd immunity brings the COVID-19 cases lower month after month. The
United States faces this perhaps final test with the India B1617 variant
(delta).
Conflicting information is standard fare for the pandemic
and most of the time the medical people themselves provide the different
guidance. Interestingly, some doctors are telling patients that have had
coronavirus and have natural antibodies to not get vaccinated while other
doctors tell them to get vaccinated. Conflicting messages create stress for
common folks grappling with daily life. Anyone on the fence about taking the
shot should talk it over with the doctor and the family and you will arrive at
the best decision for this point in time.
The VAERS (US Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System), ranby HHS, reports about 360K adverse reactions from vaccines, about 6,000 deaths
and about 30K serious illnesses. It cannot be stressed enough that these are
unverified numbers. There will be lots of time in the future to go back and dot
the I’s and cross the t’s but for now the numbers have to be viewed
objectively.
After about 3 billion vaccine doses administered around the
world, 180 million in the United States, even if 6K deaths are verified it is a
tiny percentage of the vaccine doses administered. Nonetheless, if it is your
Mom or Dad, or wife or husband, child, sibling, relative, or neighbor that dies,
it hits home. If you get the shot, there is a 0.0033% chance (0.000033;
6/180,000), 1 in 30,000, that you would die and remember these are unverified
numbers so the percentage is even lower.
Thus, weighing the vaccination risk properly, picture a
professional baseball stadium filled to capacity (these are smaller venues than
the humungous football stadiums). At the end of the game everyone files out of
the stadium through the same door receiving a vaccination shot. The data show
that after all those 10’s of thousands of shots, one person may die, emphasize
may. At least he had fun at the game before he keeled over.
Compare that risk to receiving the shot which removes any fear
of severe hospitalization (ventilation) and death from COVID-19. Some people
like to roll the dice and some like to play it safe. Everyone’s decision should
be respected.
Speaking of rolling the dice, UK Prime Minister Boris
Johnson must be a gambling man. Johnson is lifting coronavirus restrictions in
Britain on 7/19/21 now less than 2 weeks away. Boris must know when to holdthem, and when to fold them, as Kenny Rogers sings in The Gambler. Johnson
stares the rising UK daily cases in the eyes proclaiming that the clouds will
part and joyous times will begin on Monday, July 19, when all covid restrictions
are lifted.
The UK daily cases chart is show above. While Boris may be
planning a trip to Las Vegas, the chart shows 27.3K daily new cases in the UK
yesterday which is not good. Daily cases hit 27.6K last Thursday so the cases
are teasing a new high. If the daily new cases remain below 27.6K heading
lower, Johnson is a big winner on the gamble and the 7/19/21 reopening will be
a joyous gala with smiles all around. If, however, the UK daily new cases print
a higher high than 27.6K, then punch up through 30K, and perhaps much higher,
Boris will be the casino loser begging for more gambling chips providing
Buckingham Palace as collateral.
The UK active cases curve moves higher showing that
hospitalizations are rising. UK deaths remain in check. The Keystone Model
forecasts that the UK active cases curve will not flatten and roll over until
8/2/21; call it the end of this month. Thus, based on current information, the
caseloads in UK hospitals will be rising through the 7/19/21 reopening and then
trail off a week later if the daily cases do not move any higher after today.
Perhaps PM Johnson’s confidence is based on real-time information
not yet available to the public or the fancy Oxford models are forecasting a
roll over in the daily cases. It will be interesting times in England over the
next 2 weeks. On 7/19/21, the festivities will either honor Boris the Great, or
revile Boris the Boob.
Russia’s daily deaths chart is shown above. The country is a
mess. Russia’s daily new cases keep rising for the ongoing third wave teasing
towards all-time record highs. The deaths chart shows that these days are the
deadliest days of the pandemic. The Ruskies are dropping like flies under
dirtbag Dictator Putin’s leadership. Is the lackluster Sputnik V vaccine
efficacy dropping substantively over time? Vlad is in the basement of the new sprawling
palace he says is not his, hiding in the basement behind the gold-plated
jukebox machine.
Mexico’s active cases chart is shown above at the highest
levels ever. More Mexicans are sick and have ongoing health problems from
coronavirus than at anytime during the pandemic. This spells trouble at the US
southern border that is already a mess after President Biden took office.
Sleepy Joe opened the gates and told everyone to join the party. They did and
they are. Who does not like free booze, music and beautiful American women of
all shapes, sizes and colors? One American beauty is prettier and smarter than
the next.
US border agents say more migrants crossing the border are
testing positive for COVID-19. This is bad because the Peru C37 variant
(lambda) may be the culprit. Lambda, it just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it?
The incompetent WHO renamed the virus strains and variants Greek alphabet
letters. Don’t they have more important things to do? 80% of the deaths in Peru
are the C37 variant.
Colombia and Venezuela have been a pandemic mess for months
and the worry is that C37 is making its way north. Central America is in bad
shape with new waves wreaking havoc in El Salvador, Guatemala and all other
nations in that skinny stretch of land. Unfortunately, northward from there is
Mexico. It would be great if the international genomic testing could focus on
these nations to gauge the extent of the Peru C37 variant.
Delta variant may be yesterday’s news by Labor Day but the
big bad Lambda variant may be knocking at the door this Fall. The wolf used to
knock on the door in the nursery rhymes but now it is the lamb.
Indonesia is the new India. The Indonesia chart above reports
30K daily new cases the highest ever. About 560 Indonesians are dying per day
the deadliest days of the pandemic. All the charts have gone parabolic
(straight higher). Hospitals in the Jakarta and Java regions are overrun. Remember,
the biggest killer in India was the lack of oxygen. The Indonesian government
is diverting industrial oxygen supplies to hospitals and the health minister
says a lot was learned from India. Maybe not.
Neighboring nations, Japan, the US, Australia, anyone, should
send oxygen to Indonesia immediately and help them so the tragedy in India does
not repeat. Other nations said they were in good shape with oxygen, right
before it ran out and people started suffocating to death. The breathing
becomes slower and fainter over time as the brain dies. It is not a pleasant
path to nirvana.
Bangladesh’s daily new cases chart is shown above at 10K
cases per day the highest ever while deaths are over 150 per day the deadliest
days of the pandemic, and worsening. Bangladesh needs help. Conditions must be
horrendous.
Vietnam’s daily new cases are shown in the chart above
setting new records each day now at 1.1K cases and growing exponentially.
Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand need help combatting coronavirus. These
nations surrounding China are sicker than dogs and yet the communists are as
snug as a bug in a rug. The Wuhan Virus originates in China devastating the
world, but China walks away with barely a scratch and without any reinfection
waves. What is going on?
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 34.6 million. India is next with 30.6 million total virus cases.
Brazil, France, Russia, Turkey, UK, Argentina, Colombia and Italy round out the
top ten with the last two nations swapping places over the last week.
Coronavirus has infected over 185 million people worldwide. 4.0
million people have died from China Virus a sad, tragic and grim milestone for
the human race. Fortunately, 169 million global citizens have recovered from the
China Flu. 91% (169/185) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. This percentage had improved by about 7
points over the last 2 months but now drops off from 92% a week ago.
More young people may be getting sick but they must be
recovering faster. The 92% is the highest recovery percentage of the pandemic
and perhaps it now serves as a ceiling.
The world has learned a lot about COVID-19 over the last 1-1/2 years but
1 in 10 people that contract coronavirus around the world will remain sick a
long time, or die.
Worldwide, 2.2% (4/185) of the people that are infected with
covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months. 1 in every 46
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world will die, and this
number does not budge week after week even month after month. It is always
2.1%-2.2% and will not change. The global mortality rate is at an impasse for
months. It will be a great day if it ever decreases.
If 46 people in the world are placed into a room and told
they all have tested positive for covid, one will die. Everyone will look
around at each other assessing their chances. The majority of the 46 people
will be happy if they see a few obese folks. It is like the old bear joke. A
bear is about to charge two men. The one man is smiling the other is frozen in
fear. The panicked man asks why he is smiling because we have to try to outrun
this bear now charging. The smiling guy tells the fat guy, “I only have to
outrun you.”
2.4% (185/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 42 people on earth. The Wuhan
Virus has negatively impacted everyone on the planet in one way or the other.
The worldwide deaths from COVID-19 are over 4 million. More
people die this year from coronavirus than all of last year. China screwed the
world bigtime surely a crime against humanity. No wonder the communists will
not cooperate to find out the true origin of coronavirus.
In the United States, 34.6 million people are infected with covid.
621K Americans are dead. 29 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus. This
equates to nearly 84% (29/34.6) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number increases by about 6 percentage-points over
the last 2 months but now levels off. Like the world’s recovery rate above, the
US recovery rate may have met its ceiling as well at about 84%.
The US recovery rate is lower than the world’s because we
are all fatso’s. It is not fat shaming. Look at yourself in the mirror, nude,
without clothes, if you have the guts. You can do something about that and help
prevent yourself from dying of coronavirus or the flu if you start exercising,
at least walking, everyday, and eat less. Start by promising yourself that you
will never be a bigger pig with food than you are now. You will never eat more
sweets than you do now.
After a couple weeks, you will realize that you met that
goal of stabilization, you have succeeded, and now you can meet further goals
by slowly reducing and taking away from those goodies each week, just a little
bit of them, and increasing the exercise by a little bit. You will get there
and only excuses get in the way.
In the US, 1.8% (621/34600) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week, for multiple months, but the
vaccines are supposed to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not
budge month after month. It will be a big deal when the 1.8% drops lower.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is ongoing
for a solid one-half year. The death rate is at 2.2% globally which is higher
than the US reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less medical equipment such
as ventilators and oxygen tanks, less hospitals and less medical folks to work
at the facilities. And, also, of course, more people will die in poorer nations
than wealthier nations due to environmental conditions.
10.5% (34.6/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 10 Americans (1 in 9.5 to be
exact) have been stricken with coronavirus. The minority communities are
impacted disproportionately. This number remains relatively steady for several months.
The United States has 18.7% (34.6/185) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference. This percentage
was 22% several weeks ago so the drop is great news for the US but sadly, bad
news for other nations since their infection numbers are higher.
The US accounts for 15.5% (621/4000) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. The trend is slowly lower. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around
the world are Americans. A couple months ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are going
in the right direction for the US but that means proportionally more people are
dying elsewhere such as Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Africa
and Central America.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with active cases dropping dramatically, the
virus will be defeated, and healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart. However, several of these nations are dealing with nasty new outbreaks
and waves so no country is ever safe from the virus until it is eradicated
everywhere, or burns itself out.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last few months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will
not change since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic
in its approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. You see these
daily new cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically
show the 7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that
helps identify the trend.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily new cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if
it is within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the
daily new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new
case date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new
case peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that
you see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Flu story forward. The information in the Coronavirus Chronology articles
is vital to understanding the progress of the pandemic and knowing where the
hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire
pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is Article
47 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This forty-seventh article is published on Tuesday,
7/6/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. Feel
the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward.
All 47 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The handling of the pandemic suffers from a lack of chart-reading expertise
that can interpret the data. The last couple articles are linked below if you
want to come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days. The
Worldometer data is far superior for forecasting since it is updated more
reliably in real-time.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The peaks in daily new
cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the
Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curve represents
the maximum stress on healthcare workers.
The pandemic is not under control until the active cases
curve flattens and rolls over forming the bell shape. It will take longer for
the active cases charts to roll over to form the bell shape for those troubled
nations at the bottom of the list.
Haiti (Third Wave)
6/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever)
6/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave)
7/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart trying to flatten)
6/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
6/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart trying to flatten)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fifth wave)
6/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to flatten)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 6/17 and 6/22/21)
7/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
6/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve rolls over to form bell shape but give it a
couple days)
6/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 6/21 and 6/25/21)
7/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
6/27/21 New Case Peak Date
7/8/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to flatten and roll over)
7/1/21 New Case Peak Date
7/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 5 on 7/2 and 7/3/21)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of wave 4)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of wave 4)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of wave 5 on 7/1, 7/2 and 7/3/21)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of wave 4)
7/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of wave 5)
7/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever 7/3 and 7/4/21)
8/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/4/21 New Case Peak Date
8/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for fifth wave)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
daily cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve goes parabolic)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases of wave 3 over last 3 days)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
7/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 4 on 7/1 and 7/5/21)
8/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
As explained above, UK PM Johnson lays it all on the line proclaiming a reopening of the economy and ditching of all coronavirus guidelines in only 13 days and as of now they are the worst nation on the bad list above. Spain is added to the list and along with the UK and Portugal provide insight into the virulency of the India B1617 variant (delta).
Morocco is becoming infected with a new wave due to its
close proximity to Portugal and Spain. Ditto Algeria, Tunisia and Libya that
have rising cases so northern Africa is now a hot zone. The world is not
looking that good.
The Netherlands will likely be added to the bad list as
COVID-19 makes its way ashore, crawling through the tulips looking for the
Dutch boys and girls. The active cases curve needs to curl higher which will
firmly confirm the new wave higher. Ditto for the United States that is likely
beginning wave 5 and the active cases curve flattening and moving higher would
confirm trouble ahead.
Germany and Italy are not problem areas as yet. If they can
keep their borders tight, they may weather the delta storm unharmed. France,
however, is experiencing a small bump higher in daily cases and there is a high
likelihood that a new wave is beginning. COVID-19 is working northward from
Portugal and Spain into France while at the same time coming across the English
channel to the Netherlands.
Belgium and Sweden are okay right now without any signs yet
of rising cases but Denmark is deteriorating with a jump in cases over the last
week and the active cases curve now curling higher. Denmark will be added to
the bad list again and was the first nation to experience a mutation dubbed
‘Cluster 5’ that the Einstein’s at the WHO forgot to provide a Greek name (they
will give you a line that it did not fit some type of criteria; culling
millions of infected mink was not a good enough reason). Finland is reporting a
rise in cases the last couple weeks.
Brazil’s active cases curve rolls over which allows
President Bolsonaro to come out from under the desk to see if the protestors
are still in the streets. They are. Brazil’s healthcare system will improve
over the coming days and couple weeks but remains well tested.
Zambia is taken off the bad list above as its active cases
chart rolls over to form the bell shape and verify that conditions are
improving off the worst levels of the entire pandemic. Africa is getting hit
hard by coronavirus these days. Several nations are on the bad list above. The
terrible wave of infections in Africa started in Angola and Namibia, then South
Africa, on to Botswana and then up the eastern side of the continent.
Southeast Asia remains a mess with Indonesia, Malaysia,
Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Bangladesh in terrible shape.
The infections also move north into the stan’s of western Asia. Kazakhstan is
in bad shape and added to the bad list above the nation with the most outbreaks
over the last 1-1/2 years at seven waves. Kyrgyzstan is in trouble. Pakistan
will be added to the bad list next time as a new wave is likely beginning.
South Korea was a bright spot in handling the pandemic last
year but fools this year. Now they shamefully rally the population to try and
beat back the persistently-elevated caseload.
Israel reports 496 daily new cases the most since March as a
new wave is likely starting. Israel will likely be added to the bad list next
time. Iran’s daily new cases are ramping higher and it will be added to the bad
list next time. Ditto Iraq. The Middle East is getting battered by a new COVID-19
wave.
The northern hemisphere of the planet has more of its
populations vaccinated than the southern hemisphere and the summer season is
ahead which helps tamp down the virus spread. The southern hemisphere is going
into the winter season and will forecast what the northern hemisphere can
expect this Fall. Sydney, Australia, is in a lockdown due to an outbreak but
the numbers are improving.
The next list is the US states struggling with coronavirus
with the worst listed at the bottom. The states listed at the top may be more
to do with data issues. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the
peaks in active cases are provided as per the Keystone Model. The flattening
and roll over of the active cases curve forming the bell shape indicates the
virus is being defeated. America is happy with the summer weather that allows
more outside activities and social distancing to stop the spread of covid.
Kentucky (Continuous Wave) (data
is problematic; daily new cases are likely underreported)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over lower)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and actually heading higher which is problematic for
America; the daily cases may begin ramping higher to confirm the elevated
active cases)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over lower)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave 4/26, 5/3 and 5/14/21)
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten; give it a couple more days)
5/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
7/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
6/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases 6/25 and 6/30/21)
7/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
6/29/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 5)
7/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 5)
7/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 5 are 6/30 and 7/1/21)
7/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 5 are 7/1 and 7/2/21)
7/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
7/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 5 are 6/30, 7/1 and 7/2/21)
7/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Place Kentucky, Rhode Island, Maryland, Virginia, Idaho and Maine on the back burner because these states are on the bad list perhaps due to problems with their data reporting of daily new cases. It is impossible for active cases to rise when daily new cases fall for months. Something is likely amiss data-wise in these states.
Interestingly, California has the same issue but its daily
new cases are ramping higher to about 2K per day due to the outbreak in Los
Angeles County where officials are telling vaccinated folks to wear masks. If
California’s daily new cases move above 4K, about twice what they are now, that
will be serious trouble since it will confirm a new wave underway and justify
the elevated active cases curve for all of this year. These are bad
developments.
Florida is reporting a spike in daily new cases over the
last few days and will likely be added to the bad list next time. Florida’s
active cases curve may flatten and curl upward which would spell ugly trouble.
Hurricane Elsa is now battering the Florida Keys (that chain of islands off thesouthern tip of the state; Jimmy Buffett country) which will force people to
huddle together in shelters coughing on one another.
Pennsylvania remains in check without any significant
increase in cases. This is important because the Keystone State lifted the statewide
mask mandate on 6/28/21. Adding 8 days, a surge in daily new cases might be
expected today, give or take a few days. So far, so good. Watching Pennsylvania
first hand from the scenic Laurel Highlands, the stores are packed with
maskless people. The population has collectively decided to Hell with the
pandemic. Based on the vaccination percentages, it is obvious that many people
in stores are unvaccinated and not wearing masks but it has not created a surge
in cases as yet in Pennsylvania. The story will be written this week.
Ohio looks a bit shaky with daily new cases edging a hair
higher each day. Many of the state charts display an ugly look where daily new
cases are flat as a pancake but sneaking ever so higher by smidgeons while the
active cases charts are flat or forming a bottom and fully agreeable to curling
higher which would be extremely bad. It is scary how many state charts are set
up the same way.
The light data on the Independence Day weekend hit at a time
when the data is uber important in determining how the summer and beyond plays
out for the US. Each daily new cases number for the individual states and US as
a whole take on huge importance this week. Keep your fingers crossed for
falling daily new cases so the happy downtrends in the charts can continue.
Indiana and Mississippi are both reporting increasing cases
and will likely end up on the bad list next time. Nebraska is another worry as
cases sneak higher. Ditto Alaska and Wyoming.
Have you ever been to the Ozarks? Beautiful country as is
most of America with its scenic offerings. The Ozark Mountains, or Ozark
Plateau, covers Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma and the southeastern corner of
Kansas, each state with rising COVID-19 cases.
Vaccination rates are low in these states aiding the virus
spread. The summer heat also chases folks indoors to the air conditioning where
they breathe on one another. Perhaps the coronavirus is traveling with those
jugs of moonshine that change hands daily in them thar hills. The Ozarks are a covid
hot spot.
Kansas is another state showing a bump higher in daily new
cases with active cases also a hair higher. Hopefully, all these fledgling
waves 5’s die on the vine. Again, the daily new cases data is key this week.
Texas crosses the 3 million total cases milestone. Michigan
crosses the 1 million total cases threshold and the 21,000 deaths grim
milestone a double-whammy of tragedy. Arizona tags 18,000 deaths a somber
message discussed at the diner in Tombstone. Colorado exceeds 7K deaths. West
Virginia exceeds 2.9K deaths. South Dakota is over 2,000 dead. Massachusetts
crosses the 18K deaths grim milestone. Dying folks ask, “Don’t forget to put
roses on my grave,” as Mick would sing.
The 17 states listed above are in trouble although the
states at the top may be data problems. The worst states are Missouri,
Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Nevada, Alabama, Louisiana, Washington and
Hawaii. The Aloha State is seeking to reduce the travelers arriving as the
islands are overrun with tourists but restaurants and other businesses are not
fully open. Paradise sounds like long lines and traffic jams. Some of the tempers
are probably hotter than the lava from Kilauea.
The following states are also showing troublesome charts and
will likely be added to or adjusted in the bad list above next time; Alaska,
Indiana, Florida, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio and California. The 10 bad states
above have 6 more buddies ready to join the doom train (California is already
on the list). 16 states not looking so good with active cases rising confirming
new waves is a bad development.
The news is a bit worse because there is another dozen or
more states, with flat active cases curves, that are poised to catch a ride on
the doom train over the next couple weeks. The light holiday weekend data
creates a lull in the action but things will pick up at a far faster pace each
day forward. Pray that the daily cases drop, otherwise, America’s summer will
be ruined by a dark covid cloud that never goes away.
Israel reports that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is less
effective against the delta variant than prior coronavirus infections. The
preliminary study reports a decline in effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine over
time and since Israel’s vaccination program is months along, the study may be supporting
this hypothesis in the data. If so, it would lead to the use of booster shots.
The Israel study reports about 64% efficacy for the Pfizer
vaccine rather than the 94% previously touted a big enough gap to drive a truck
through. The Pfizer CEO throws his Prada shoe at the video screen. Sleepy Joe
Biden winces knowing that the Israeli study will further hurt the US
vaccination program.
On a happier note, the study reports 93% effectiveness at
preventing hospitalizations and deaths. Thus, the mRNA vaccine may be losing
its effectiveness as evidenced by rising caseloads but the people getting sick
are tending to not die and not need respirators. However, covid-long may be in
their futures.
Humorously, the next sales pitch for US vaccinations will
probably fear-monger the ‘covid-long’ outcome. The liberal networks will show
people sick for months after contracting coronavirus; their lives in shambles,
jobs lost, they are a burden to their family. They pray for forgiveness for not
being smart enough to take the shot.
The media video segments will be shown with sentimental
piano music playing softly in the background. Of course, long-covid patients
will be shown lying on the couch with Aunt Josie’s afghan draped over their
frail bodies. The vaccine video will end with the same message about getting
vaccinated ‘or this horror will happen to you’. The sick person will rhetorically
ask, “Why did I not get vaccinated?”
That may be a better approach than telling the unvaccinated
folks to get an mRNA vaccine that may only be 64% effective against the India
B1617 variant (delta). In fairness, the 64% efficacy is on par with or better
than most flu vaccines over the last couple decades.
At 3:00 PM EST, President Biden updates America on the
COVID-19 pandemic. He declares, "The virus is on the run. America is back." Biden proclaims, “Communities are at risk” where a large
part of the area remains unvaccinated. He says, “Your family and friends are at
risk if you are unvaccinated.” What if you dislike your family and have no
friends? The president pleads with America, “Do it for yourself and people you
care about and for your country.” Biden says 10 states are seeing spikes in
coronavirus cases. That jives with the list provided above although there are
probably a couple states that differ on each list.
Biden decrees that the push for vaccinations will continue
employing five different strategies. First, 42,000 pharmacies are open and you
can talk to medical professionals without any need for an appointment. Second,
the vaccines will be placed in the hands of doctors so people can receive the
shot from someone they trust in the office.
Third, similarly, the vaccines will be placed in the hands
of pediatricians since young folks, teens and children will be in the office
anyway requiring different vaccinations for back-to-school check-ups and Fall
sports. Fourth, vaccines will be made available at work places and at
facilities directly near work places. Fifth, mobile clinic units will be used
to bring vaccinations to anyone unable to leave the house or simply looking for
convenience. The mobile units are dubbed “surge response teams.”
President Biden calls for a summer of “hope and joy.” Sleepy
Joe declares, “We cannot get complacent now. Get vaccinated now! You can do
this. Please, please, get vaccinated. It is the patriotic thing to do.” Hey
unvaccinated Americans, did you know you are unpatriotic?
Medical professionals in the trenches say most unvaccinated
people simply do not want the shot. It is that simple. A noticeable portion of
unvaccinated folks will reference the fact that the vaccines are only approved
for emergency use and not officially approved. Some feel like guinea pigs
taking an emergency-only vaccine. In essence, the American people are the trial
group for the mRNA technology.
Further, some unvaccinated people will mention how large
numbers of CDC employees, doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals
are not taking the vaccines. This fact is kept hush-hush by the Whitehouse.
When the CDC is asked why the employees are not more universally taking the
vaccines, the officials say the vaccination status of employees is private and
they do not know the exact numbers.
An answer to the emergency use question is arriving this
month and it will be an official approval for one or both of the mRNA vaccines.
Pfizer/BioNTech was first out of the gate so they will likely receive official approval
first. The approval will kick out a leg of the vaccine skepticism stool but
folks will still try and sit on it and likely keep raising the issue about why
so many healthcare professionals are not taking the shot unless they are forced
to as a requirement of employment.
Unvaccinated Keystone is happy with the president’s remarks
and asks Nurse Goodbody if she is now willing to provide the shots in his
buttock cheeks in the privacy of the doctor’s office. It did cause a scene when
Keystone was starting to pull down his drawers while standing on the car seat
in the drive-thru site a couple months ago. Nurse Goodbody was very unhappy.
Biden says the vaccines will be provided to doctors directly
which will build trust. Keystone agrees 100% telling beautiful Nurse Goodbody
that ‘he trusts her implicitly’ and would like to receive the first shot in the
left cheek. Nurse Goodbody scolds Keystone for the umpteenth time exclaiming,
“You may trust me but I don’t trust you!” The pretty nurse says, “There will be
no shots in butt cheeks. It is the arm or nothing.” Once again, Keystone walks
away dejected and will continue to ponder the vaccination. Nurse Goodbody stops
him before he opens the door telling him the funny antics are appreciated and
perhaps the shot can be arranged next week in the office.
The US pandemic is a regional problem now. The
well-vaccinated states such as the US northeast, are in good shape without much
risk. The less-vaccinated southern states, and regions such as the Ozarks
mentioned above, and locations out west, are breeding zones for covid.
Springfield, Missouri, is slapped hard with infections. Ditto Los Angeles
County, California. The daily new cases in these locations and troubled states
above will verify how contagious and dangerous the India variant is, or is not.
The regional nature of the outbreaks focuses the need to
issue future guidelines and vaccination information on a county-by-county
basis. A main problem during the pandemic is the one size fits all approach
trying to provide guidelines for the entire country or statewide when a county-specific
approach is far better; in fact the only way after witnessing the last 18
months.
As the pandemic wanes, this becomes even more true where
areas of the US are extremely low risk while others locations are extremely
high risk. A county-by-county approach would handle these situations easily
when they arise without burdening surrounding regions not at serious risk.
Fingers and toes are crossed that the US daily cases will
roll over and die this week and the pandemic will fade. The CDC, NIH, US
government and others would be wise to start outlining and discussing a county-by-county
approach instead of the US-wide and state-wide mandates that gravely hurt the
economy and also causes mental harm since people are isolated that do not have
to be.
The medical folks should work out some details and implement
county directives as a test case to the public to see if it is well-received.
The list of all counties in the US are easily available in data bases so that
work is already done. There will be more pandemics and the response has to be
more pinpointed.
A Texas kids camp succeeds in sickening 125 children and
teens (6th to 12th grader’s) out of 400 people at an event. They should call it
Camp Covid. The participants return home to spread the virus in their
communities.
America walks on coronavirus eggshells this week awaiting
the daily new cases data that will be playing some catch-up after the long
holiday weekend. The pandemic lingers and over the coming days we find out is
the United States is in wave 5, or not. The beat goes on.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/7/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Sydney, Australia, is struggling to tamp down its ongoing outbreak with 27 new cases reported. The cases fell back for a few days but pop higher again. Coronavirus is a sticky bastard. Germany eases some travel restrictions with neighboring nations. Haitian President Jovenel Moise is assassinated overnight so a government now in crisis will have a tougher time at handling the pandemic like the Myanmar (Burma) mess. Haiti is a poor nation that deserves better. In an interview with Richard Quest on CNN media, WHO European Regional Director Hans Kluge proclaims, "It is not the time for uncontrolled openings." He thinks that European countries may be relaxing coronavirus restrictions too quickly. The UK is receiving a lot of attention with its decision to remove all covid restrictions and fully open the economy in only 12 days despite daily cases rising. PM Johnson's rationale is that daily cases may hit 100K (now approaching 30K) above the worst wave of the pandemic but hospitalizations are in check and manageable. He cites that the hospitalizations were 10 times current levels when cases were at the 30K-ish level last January and 5 times current levels compared to last Fall. Johnson's rationale is logical, however, a wild card would be the potential for the India B1617 variant (delta) to take off exponentially and surprise the Brit's with its potency. Johnson's basic idea is that with the hospitalizations no longer overrun, it is time for the country to get on with life and treat covid like the flu. The UK daily cases each day forward are key. If they creep higher, 30K, 40K, maybe 50K?, will Boris start singing from a different hymn sheet? The UK health minister announces plans to relax the quarantine guidelines. Anyone vaccinated, that is exposed to covid, does not have to self-isolate. The rule will also apply to unvaccinated children. The UK is full steam ahead with life coronavirus be damned. London Mayor Sadiq Khan, a progressive thinking chap, wants to maintain masks in the city. Other officials say that UK public transportation companies may want to continue imposing masks so the heat will remain on Boris as the countdown clock begins to the UK reopening celebration on 7/19/21.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/7/21, at 5:00 AM EST: There will be drama over the next 12 days as the UK awaits the reopening of the economy and ditching of all coronavirus guidelines. Thus, the UK data is the best place to start. Yesterday, the UK reports 28.8K daily new cases taking out the prior highs the highest cases of the current wave 4. The UK active cases curve is moving sharply higher so hospitalizations would be expected to increase. 37 Brit's die yesterday the deadliest day since April. A bead of sweat forms on Boris's forehead. Spain reports record high cases for the current wave that has been a rocket launch but Portugal daily cases remain in a sideways stasis. It is interesting that the India variant outbreaks in the UK and Spain are parabolic events where Portugal's battle is not. Is Portugal simply not testing as much? Netherlands reports a big pop in daily new cases over 2.2K yesterday. France reports 3.6K daily new cases the highest for this new wave starting. Where's Macron? Bueller? Macron? Bueller?
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/7/21, at 5:30 AM EST: Russia exceeds 140K deaths a grim milestone. Putin is eating caviar on gold-plated china washing it down with fine wine. 737 Ruskies die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Brazil crosses the 527K deaths grim milestone. 457 people die in South Africa the deadliest day of the current wave 3. Bangladesh reports 11.5K daily new cases the highest day of the pandemic with deaths the last 2 days the deadliest of the pandemic. Malaysia is at 800K total coronavirus cases. Dear Lord. Indonesia goes from tragic to horrific with daily new cases and deaths at the highest numbers ever. Countries need to step up and send oxygen to Indonesia whether they say they want it or not. The coming days are going to be Hell on Earth for Indonesia like the worst days of the India outbreak. Good luck, Indonesia. Myanmar and Vietnam are disasters on par with Indonesia. Southeast Asia is hammered relentlessly. Japan considers placing an emergency lockdown on Tokyo again with the Olympics beginning in a couple weeks. Japan is concerned about a bump higher in daily new cases and the 3 and 7-day MA's are sloping higher. However, Japan's active cases curve continues lower, although it may flatten, and the daily new cases for yesterday are only 1.0K cases. Japan would be smart to watch the 3-day MA of daily new cases which just placed a slightly higher high (not good) but it is coming back down right now. The 3-day MA will print a low over the next couple days or so and that low needs compared to the prior low at 1.2K cases on 6/30/21. If the 3-day MA comes down and takes out the 1.2K low, printing a lower low, Japan should not worry and a Tokyo lockdown is not needed. If, however, the 3-day MA fails to print a lower low, that is not good, and when the 3-day moves higher if it prints a higher high the Tokyo lockdown would be prudent.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/7/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 11.6K daily new cases yesterday a nice low number; we will take it. America is hanging in there. The next few days are pivotal in determining if the United States is in a wave 5 outbreak. Diagnostic testing company Quidel recalls its Lyra Covid-19 Assay test due to too many false negatives. You take the Lyra test and are told you do not have coronavirus so you head home skipping with joy, thanking the Lord, kissing children, shaking hands with neighbors, shooting a few quick baskets with the young kids at the playground, life is great, at home kissing the wife, the kids, the mailman is greeted, and extra garden tomatoes are given to the UPS driver, but the phone rings and the Quidel laboratory says the test is a false negative. False negatives are bad because you think you are okay but you are actually sick. It is a nasal swab test so the people are likely not sticking it up the schnoz far enough. Remember the first test when the pandemic started? The swab was 20 times the size of a Q-tip and you had to stick it so far up the nasal passages it tickled the brain.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 7/7/21, at 4:00 PM EST: A gay guy is savagely beaten and murdered in Galicia, Spain. Tens of thousands of citizens take to the streets in different cities protesting the senseless killing. With coronavirus cases rising like a rocket ship in Spain, and all these people in the streets, and most are younger, there will likely be many new infections a week from now. Judging from the crowds, one-third is maskless, one-third is wearing masks and one-third try to wear masks, but the face coverings are hanging off of chins, or draped around the neck or the nose is exposed. It is bad timing for the homophobic killing. In America, the nation continues splitting into the have's and have not's, the rich versus the poor, the noble elite versus the peasants, the privileged class versus the huddled masses, and now the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. Dr Paul Offit proclaims, "I think there are two Americas. There is the vaccinated America and the unvaccinated America, and I think the unvaccinated America is about to pay a price for that." Dr Fauci has also referenced the two America's. There is a plan bandied about by the Whitehouse to potentially knock on doors to get people vaccinated. A bit of advice is in order. Do not send people out to knock on doors because someone will get hurt. Many folks in rural areas do not appreciate strangers walking up on their land bothering them especially about a vaccination. So to avoid a tragedy, just do not do it. It is a stupid idea.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/7/21, at 8:00 PM EST: CNBC publishes an interesting article and analysis questioning the efficacy of the Chinese vaccines such as Sinpharm and Sinovac. Of six highly-infected nations (UAE, Seychelles, Chile, UK, Uruguay and Mongolia), five are using the Chinese vaccines which are not providing the protection expected. The UK does not use the Chinese vaccines. It makes you wonder what vaccine the communists are providing to the Chinese people. Obviously, it is something better. Never trust a filthy communist (CCP and PLA). The coronavirus vaccines in use around the world include Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, J&J, Sputnik V (Gamaleya), Covishield and the Chinese vaccines Sinopharm and Sinovac that are not approved for use in most Western nations. Novavax is pending approval in the United States. US doctors and television pundits are increasing the fearmongering rhetoric telling the unvaccinated people that they pose a risk to vaccinated people. The virus will continue to replicate and mutate which may reduce the efficacy of vaccines going forward. At the start of the pandemic, the major concern was overwhelming the healthcare system and this occurred in late December and January in the United States. This worry has passed, at least for now. Fauci says 99.2% of the people dying from COVID-19 are unvaccinated. The stat is likely embellished slightly but not too far off the mark. It is common sense. If the vaccines do what they are promised, which is take severe illness and death off the table, of course the deaths are in the unvaccinated folks. The obsession with shoving vaccines down people's throats has to stop or it will more seriously damage the US. Take the remaining vaccines in America and give them to the poor nations. If people do not want the shot, leave them alone. The official approval of the mRNA vaccines, instead of the ongoing emergency approval, will encourage people to get vaccinated. The military, universities, schools and businesses will tell the troops and employees to get down on their knees and roll up their sleeves once official approval is received which will be millions more Americans. It is a hard sell telling people to get vaccinated when healthcare professionals, doctors, nurses, medics and CDC and NIH employees do not want the shot (this information is kept hush-hush). It would be helpful if a study can pinpoint the exact percentages of these groups that have been vaccinated, good or bad. The reason the numbers are not touted is that they likely follow the general data in that only 40% to 70% of the people in the groups mentioned (doctors, nurses, CDC employees, etc...) are vaccinated when the Whitehouse and media want you to believe the participation is over 95%. It is not. Some unvaccinated folks do not want to take advice and direction from people that do not eat their own cooking.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/7/21, at 9:00 PM EST: 52% of the new coronavirus cases in the United States are the India B1617 variant (delta). The reason the Einstein's at the WHO changed the names of the virus mutations and variants to Greek alphabet letters, in the middle of the pandemic, was concern over labeling and stigmatizing countries negatively. Why does this concern appear now when the China Flu, China Virus, Wuhan Flu and Wuhan Virus names are bandied about daily all over the world? China provides lots of money to the WHO; perhaps it is the puppeteer and puppet, respectively. The average person does not assign any prejudice to a group of people based on a virus or pandemic name. Thinking otherwise is stupid. Names such as Spanish Flu, German Measles, Ebola (Ebola River), China Flu, Wuhan Virus and many others typically, and simply, identify the origin of the outbreaks. The progressive and liberal elite, mainly on the East and West Coasts, always want to properly educate the great unwashed Americans so stupid things like the Greek letters occur. Humorously, the India B1617 variant (delta) is in the news constantly, and every story begins with, "The Delta variant, first discovered in India." The reason the WHO is using Greek names is so the country of origin is not stigmatized and instead there is even a greater focus on the country. That is funny. Many people now call it the India variant. If the WHO would have not changed the virus names, and maybe did their actual jobs instead like investigate the Wuhan Lab leak origination theory (which is not going to happen since the WHO sleeps with the CCP each evening comingling on red satin sheets), the Delta variant would be referred to as B1617 and B16172 which is an agnostic name. The WHO has only succeeded in adding another layer of complexity to the virus names.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/8/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The UK is quickly coming up on 5 million total coronavirus cases and reports 32.6K daily new cases yesterday now over 30K. PM Boris Johnson clenches his buttocks on the news. The UK active cases chart is going parabolic like the daily cases chart so the hospital admissions should ramp higher. Johnson is probably busy with a party planner picking out crepe paper colors for the 7/19/21 celebration. Netherlands daily new cases take another strong leap higher. Damn. Portugal's daily new cases jump to 3.3K the highest of the current wave and perhaps take-off point for a parabolic move higher. The exponential moves higher are becoming a hallmark of the India variant as evidenced by the UK, Spain, now Portugal, the Netherlands is next and France after that. Europeans may want to rethink their travel plans. Japan reports 1.7K daily new cases with the numbers remaining in check. The 3-day MA for daily cases continues lower and needs to make the lower low which will be known over the next couple days. Also, watch the 1.8K daily new cases level since it is immediately problematic if this number is exceeded any day forward. These two metrics can be used to determine if an emergency should be declared for Tokyo and perhaps other regions which would result in an Olympics without spectators. The athletes should be the focus and making sure they can compete and remain virus-free and Japan has a detailed plan in place. The next couple days of data will tell the tale for Japan's path forward. There are no more words available to describe the tragedy in Indonesia. Each day is record after record. Indonesia reports 34.4K daily new cases the highest ever and 1,040 deaths, a horrific number, yesterday, the deadliest day of the pandemic. Bangladesh reports another day or record deaths. Mexico reports 8K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 3 that is starting to go parabolic. The United States better come up with a plan fast to handle the coronavirus spreading up through Mexico towards the southern US border. Texas would be first impacted but their daily new cases currently remain flat. Where's President Biden? Bueller? Sleepy Joe? Bueller? There he is eating pudding in the Whitehouse kitchen. He asks, "Where's my hat?"
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/8/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The assessment of a potential US wave 5 continues. The CDC says new cases, hospitalizations and deaths will stabilize which is a vague statement. Daily cases and hospitalizations have been moving sideways and deaths move gradually lower. The US reports 16.5K daily new cases above the 7-day MA trend line at 14.2K cases. The 3-day MA for US daily new cases comes down for a low at 10,922 cases which is great since it is a lower low than the prior low on 6/28/21 at 10,954 but the numbers are so tight you can only call it the same low. Thus, going back to the prior low for the 3-day on 6/21/21 at 9.8K cases reveals that the direction of new infections has an upward bias (bad). On the way up, see if the 3-day MA makes a higher high which would be very bad. There were 18.9K daily new cases on Friday, 7/2/21, the highest in recent days. If the 18.9K is taken out this week, the United States will be in wave 5. Oklahoma exceeds 7.4K total deaths with the daily cases edging higher in recent days. Missouri reports 1.7K daily new cases the highest for the current wave 5. This is bad. Springfield, Missouri, hospitals are overrun and patients are transferred to other facilities for treatment. Missouri should tell their healthcare workers to get themselves, and their family, ready physically and mentally for a busy month. Daily new cases bump higher in Idaho and Tennessee. Ditto Alaska that likely has problems on the way. Batten down the hatches, Alaska, a coronavirus storm is coming your way. Florida's daily new cases data is falling behind a few days. What are they sweeping under the rug in the Sunshine State? California reports 2.3K daily new cases the most since May. Missouri and California are adding a lot to the elevated cases US-wide. The worrisome aspect is that for the dozen or so troubled US states, as highlighted above in the state list, all show sideways moves or slight bumps higher in daily cases. When the UK B117 variant (alpha) smacked Michigan, that state was the epicenter that infected surrounding states and Ontario, but fortunately the brunt of the trouble stayed within Michigan. The India B1617 variant (delta) is flaring-up in many states; as if it is a dozen Michigan's beginning. Let's hope not.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/8/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Japan PM Suga delivers sour news that Tokyo and three adjacent prefectures are re-declared a state of emergency. This means the Olympics will not have fans in the stands at the Tokyo venues. Japan has to play it safe and does not want the Olympics labeled as a superspreader event a couple months from now. Nonetheless, we can watch the daily cases and see if the decision has merit. Events held outside of Tokyo will still have spectators. The main crux of the decree is to encourage people to stay home and watch the Games rather than venturing into Tokyo to spread the virus. And you know the best way to stop a party. Yes, you shut off the booze. The emergency order stops the sale of alcohol in bars and restaurants. Humorously, the officials know that most people will say to heck with going out because there will not be any booze to drink. How on earth can the girls get prettier, as the evening goes along, without liquor? The Tokyo state of emergency will continue through the Olympics. 30% of the new infections in Japan are the India variant. 15% of the Japanese are fully vaccinated. Japan's big mistake was sitting on its butt for a few months thinking the pandemic was in the rearview mirror when they should have been vaccinating people especially with the hope of holding the Olympics. Japan has righted the covid ship and the Olympics should be great fun.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/8/21, at 10:00 AM EST: Johns-Hopkins formally announces that the world has crossed over the 4 million deaths grim milestone. As a comparison, 4 million is the entire population of Los Angeles, California, which would have been wiped out in a few short months. A Georgetown University study receives media attention identifying five coronavirus infection cluster zones across the southeastern US. The report says the five under-vaccinated regions of the United States place the entire nation at risk. The study says the COVID-19 in these areas could mutate into variants that defeat the vaccines. Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and New Mexico are states of concern. The list matches the state list above very closely. Nevada and Utah should be identified as well but that would be a cluster out west and did not fit the narrative of the study. The fear mongering and doom and gloom is laid on thick by pundits trying to convince people to get vaccinated proclaiming that the less-vaccinated areas are variant breeding grounds that will extend the pandemic. They make the unvaccinated feel so dirty, and perhaps naughty. As Austin Powers says, "Oh, behave." The daily media fear mongering trying to force people to get vaccinated is at the point where it is hurting society more than it is convincing anyone to get the shot. Slavitt proclaims, "Delta variant is COVID-19 on steroids." HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra is taking a lot of blowback after his comment that "it is absolutely our (US government) business" to know who is vaccinated. Becerra says his comment is taken out of context but it is actually a clear and direct statement. Becerra releases a new comment (tweet) saying; "To be clear: government has no database tracking who is vaccinated." He says, "We want people to be personally and community responsible." The knocking-on-doors plan by Biden is also receiving pushback. Americans do not want someone knocking on their doors. The Whitehouse backtracks and says door-knocking would only be on a community level and only carried out with local trusted leaders. Whitehouse spokesperson Zients scolds the unvaccinated for not taking the shot. The CDC, NIH, FDA, WHO, US government and scientists, pundits, doctors and nurses knew from the start that about 20 to 25% of Americans do not want vaccinated and lo and behold, that is about what it is in July 2021. Do not blame the people that do not want a shot, blame the people in charge since they knew over a year ago that the vaccine hesitancy was going to occur and were not smart enough to factor that into the overall strategy and plan. The pandemic messaging remains a mess. No one single point person is in charge, but everyone is in charge providing daily decrees and mixed messages. Americans are tuning out as they turn the music up louder and get back to living life.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/8/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Singapore and Australia send oxygen and supplies to Indonesia to help with the horrendous virus outbreak. The Indonesians will never forget their great neighbors that are trying to help them in their time of need. Medical officials in America are alarmed about the reduced testing over the last couple months. Experts are discussing, and disagreeing, on an increase in virus testing in the US, including more tests for vaccinated people to gauge the number of breakthrough cases occurring. Some scientists and doctors say the testing is necessary, some do not. So much for science. A Yale study decrees that vaccinations have saved 279,052 people from dying and 1.25 million people from being hospitalized over the last 2 weeks of 2020 and the first 6 months of this year. Broad studies are easy to show whatever you want them to show. The pandemic has caused a lot of mental, emotional and physical strain and lasting damage that is difficult to quantify. During the time frame of the study, the actual numbers are roughly the same as the projections so lo and behold, the US only has one-half the hospitalizations and one-half the deaths it could have had, thanks to those glorious and wonderful life-saving vaccines, says the talking heads. The study is intended to encourage people to get vaccinated. In a CNN interview, Dr Jha says, "96% of physicians have gotten the vaccine." Jha is citing an AMA study released last month based on 'practicing physicians'. That can mean a lot of different things. If you took a poll about vaccinations, and only polled doctors working daily in the coronavirus emergency rooms, the 96% is not surprising. That number appears stretched, however, if it was based on all doctors. The study also describes the group of doctors polled as 'among all surveyed physicians'. The AMA is reputable but of course if you have a poll and only survey the doctors that agree with you, a large number would be expected. Other studies say only 40% to 80% of US doctors are actually vaccinated. The Journal of Nature says the virus variants may be resistant to monoclonal antibodies. Maybe means the scientists do not know. If unvaccinated and you become ill, like former President Trump, they can pump you with monoclonal antibodies and you will be good as new in a day or two. The study is trying to discredit this thinking since all the medical folks want people to get vaccinated. The report says a vaccine is better than natural antibodies and two shot are better than one. The latter is true but the former is questionable. Better is a subjective word.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/8/21, at 4:00 PM EST: Pfizer says it is developing a vaccine booster shot that targets the India B1617 variant (delta). Pfizer says efficacy for the mRNA vaccine drops off and a booster shot is needed about 6 to 12 months after the vaccination. Pfizer is seeking FDA approval for the booster and the vaccine will likely be available in August. Thus, people vaccinated in December and January would receive a booster in August, the February folks in September, etc.. Pfizer and the other pharma companies want to, and are entitled to, make money on the vaccines. The loss in efficacy pertains to symptomatic disease (mild coronavirus infections). The vaccine remains effective against severe illness and death. It will be a tough sell convincing people to take a shot when now it will be three shots. There will also be worldwide blowback if Americans are receiving three vaccine shots to save their fat arses when people in poor nations have not even received a single shot.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/8/21: Only a few hours after Pfizer says that booster shots are likely needed, the CDC and FDA exclaim, "Sacrebleu!" A rare joint statement says it is not conclusive that booster shots are necessary slapping Pfizer's wrist. The CDC and FDA do not want to scare people away from getting vaccinated since three shots are now likely needed over a several-month period. Even the folks that are fully vaccinated groan knowing they will likely need another shot in a couple months. The people that make and test the vaccine (Pfizer) say a booster is needed but the government (CDC and FDA) says no. Who do you believe? If your mechanic says the brakes and tires need replaced on your car before the long summer vacation drive begins, but the friendly neighbor guy eating a doughnut kicks a tire and says they look fine and there is nothing to worry about. Who do you believe?
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The world is in the wave 5 outbreak with daily new cases ramping higher daily. China screwed the planet. Deaths were holding steady, but alas, the worldwide deaths are at 8,849 yesterday taking out the high at 8,804 on 6/30/21. Unfortunately, the global deaths chart curve is basing, or leveling-off if you prefer, which is a precursor to a trend change higher and no one wants to see deaths on the rise, but they likely will for the world. As a side note, the television pundits continue describing a chart that drops, and then moves sideways, as 'plateauing' which is incorrect in chart lingo. When a chart curve is rising and then levels-off, that is called plateauing, but after a chart falls, and then levels off, it is basing, or leveling-off. The chart can break either way at this juncture (up or down) and if you say the chart is plateauing but the break is to the upside now the chart plateaued but heads higher. That is stupid. Capeesh?
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 4:30 AM EST: South Korea is a mess with the infections rising to 1.3K cases the highest ever. The once stalwart nation in handling the pandemic is now a carnival clown watching infections spin out of control. Seoul increases lockdown measures canceling public events and only allowing groups of two. Sydney, Australia, increases its lockdown restrictions. Aussies are only allowed to venture out for essential goods and not more than 6.2 miles (10 km) from home. Groups are limited to two people. Only about 11% of Aussies are vaccinated. The vaccine most used Down Under is AstraZeneca but after the side effects problems, folks become hesitant to take the shot. The Pfizer vaccine is better received but in limited supplies. The India B1617 variant (delta) is in 10 Africa nations but less than 2% of the population is vaccinated. WHO says the Delta variant is in 100 countries which is one-half of the world. Over one-half of the US cases are the Delta variant. In America, over the last 4 weeks, the India variant infections are doubling each week. The variant accounted for 1.3% of the US infections a month ago but a week later it climbed to 2.9% of the infections, then a week later 10.0%, then a week after that 26.1%, and now 51.7% of the US infections are the India variant. What occurs over the next week?! If you follow the rate of change between each number, the weekly change was a 123% increase in India variant cases a month ago, then a big 244% increase a week later, then a week after that the rate of change was up 161% and then over the last week up 98%. Note that the increase in cases is dramatic (bad) but the rate of change is going down for the last couple weeks (good). It is annoying that the United States has slacked-off on its testing program but resources were likely needed to administer vaccinations. The data and charts remain in flux after the holiday and with less testing. The assumption can be made that the US daily cases are likely a touch higher if the testing was carried out at the same pace. Any noise like this in the data should line out and dissipate over the coming days and week or two.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 4:45 AM EST: Japan reports 2.2K daily new cases the highest of a new wave starting. Japan made a good decision to impose the emergency measures in Tokyo through the Olympics. There was no choice. The UK reports 32.6K daily new cases higher than the prior day's 32.4K and the most since January. Boris wipes a few beads of sweat from his forehead. Italy, France, Belgium and Netherlands all report higher daily cases. The infections are spiking in Belgium and Netherlands. Europe is screwed. Malaysia reports 135 deaths the most ever. Indonesia continues reporting record infections and deaths. Thailand reports 75 deaths the deadliest day ever. How's that reopening of Phuket going? The world is not in a good place with wave 5 underway and increasing. New hot zones are popping up. Europe is slipping into the coronavirus soup and should adopt an all hands on deck policy right now. The US is on the rocky path of wave 5. Wave 4 looked really bad for the US, right before it petered out. One can only hope for a repeat. The old people in the US have either died or they are vaccinated. The virulence of the India B1617 variant (delta) is being assessed in real-time around the world including Europe and the US with the Peru C37 variant (lambda) on deck.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 19.3K daily new cases not a very good number for a Thursday and Friday's numbers (today) are typically the worst of the week. Damn. The 3-day MA trend line for US daily new cases prints a higher high at about 18K cases which confirms that an uptrend is in place and continuing which is wave 5. The average daily deaths in the US remain in that 200 to 250 range and needs to come down. 24 US states are reporting an uptick of 10% or more in new infections over the last week. This is not good and verifies the US wave 5. Missouri's daily new cases increase to 1.7K cases another high for its new wave 5. Springfield, Missouri, hospitals remain in crisis mode. The coronavirus deaths occurring remain low in number but nearly every one is an unvaccinated person. The young folks are sicker than in previous months and they are staying in the hospital longer. Oklahoma reports another spike in daily cases. Ditto Utah and Nevada that are deteriorating fast. While everyone is watching the southern states, Utah and Nevada are screaming 'over here folks, over here'. Indiana is another state that is experiencing a rise in cases but no one is watching. Cases creep higher in Texas perhaps due to the infections migrating up through Central America and Mexico. The daily new infections in Mexico are ramping strongly higher. Arizona crosses the 18,000 deaths grim milestone. Oh no! Terrible! Arkansas daily new cases spike to 1.2K the most since early February. Arkansas is a bigtime hot zone. 11 Arkansans die yesterday the most since March. Washington and Oregon states report bumps in daily cases. The United States is starting to look terrible. Cases rise in Alaska. America is in wave 5. LA County, California, reports 839 new cases up almost +160% over the last week and the test positivity rates are doubling. Officials are encouraging Latino's to get vaccinated. Every public announcement ends with 'get vaccinated'.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The pandemic continues taking an economic toll. Two-thirds of Americans have increased credit card debt and most have increased their credit card limits during the pandemic. Oy vey. 25% of Americans worry about making their next credit card payment. Double oy vey. Another news report says young people are placing more debt on credit cards to travel to friends and relatives weddings that were delayed due to the pandemic. Young folks want new outfits for the events and those purchases are going on credit cards. Are you folks stupid? Is that what society does nowadays so you can put your picture on Facebook like a jackass? God bless you. Understand that interest rates will begin moving substantively higher in the years ahead, so any debt that you are responsible will balloon greatly. You are destroying your finances for a bunch of junk and garbage that will be out at the curb a year from now. Don't do that.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/9/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The Peru C37 variant (lambda) is in 29 countries (15% of the countries on earth) and most prevalent in South America. 37% of the new daily cases in Argentina are the Peru variant. 81% of the daily new cases in Peru are the C37 variant. The Chinese vaccines, Sinopharm and Sinovac, are used extensively in South America and their efficacy is under serious scrutiny. What type of snake oil is China selling off the back of its coronavirus carnival wagon? Why are the vaccines working so well inside China? Are Chinese citizens given a different vaccine? Will China provide vaccine samples, that independent field personnel can obtain directly without interference, so they can be analyzed to see if the vaccines used in the mainland match the Sinopharm and Sinovac offerings given to the rest of the world? Of course not. Never trust a filthy lying commie. China has lied about the pandemic from the start, aided by WHO, and the communists will never cooperate with any investigations because they do not want to pay the world reparations for the likely Wuhan Lab leak.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 7/9/21, at 12:00 PM EST: The CDC updates its mask guidelines for schools saying vaccinated teachers and students do not have to wear masks but unvaccinated should wear masks. CDC Director Walensky, discussing the US, proclaims that the Delta variant's "rapid rise is troubling." As Yogi Berra said, "It feels like deja vu all over again." Remember when US wave 4 started and began gathering steam in late March early April? You probably do not and have trouble remembering what you ate for dinner last evening but that is when Walensky said she had the feeling of "impending doom." She received criticism since wave 4 immediately fizzled but at the time it did look like the charts were going to go parabolic. Instead the vaccines and natural antibodies started creating herd immunity limiting infections. Hopefully, the US wave 5, which is now a sick coronavirus train leaving the station heading higher, will roll over and die like wave 4. Walensky is concerned because the India variant (delta) infections are over 80% of the cases in some regions of the US. There is new concern that the Delta variant may spread to the point that some schools may not reopen.
Note Added Friday Evening, 7/9/21, at 5:00 PM EST: The booster shot controversy has legs. Media folks are getting worked up about the mixed messages. Pfizer, that makes and tests the vaccine, and has the data, says a booster shot is needed but the CDC and FDA says a booster shot is not needed. Here comes Dr Fauci appearing on CNN attracted to the bright lights like a moth. Fauci will only appear on liberal media outlets since right-leaning outlets would ask questions about the Wuhan Lab leak and funding the communist laboratories. Wolf Blitzer asks for clarity on the booster shot controversy. Americans are losing confidence in the vaccines since the scientists and doctors cannot agree. Fauci decrees, "Listen to the CDC." Fauci proclaims the CDC, FDA and NIH, now tagging his organization's namesake onto the acronym parade, is gathering data for when and if boosters are needed. He should use a top hat and cane while he is tap-dancing. Fauci stands on a soap box with index finger pointed skyward proclaiming , "The American public should take their advice from the CDC and FDA." Fauci's decree sounds like Yul Brynner only he forgot to say "so let it be written, so let it be done." The doctor says the Pfizer CEO called him last night to apologize for not providing the Whitehouse, CDC and FDA a heads-up on the news release about boosters the previous evening. Lord Fauci informs America that Pfizer knelt and kissed his ring. After Fauci lays all this groundwork telling everyone to follow the CDC that says no booster is needed, he says a booster shot is not ruled out. You cannot make the stuff up. You know what is coming. Dollars to doughnuts, a booster shot program will likely begin, perhaps targeting the elderly and folks with comorbidities first, in August or September. Pfizer is simply doing its job monitoring the efficacy of its vaccine and as its own data, and other reports such as the Israeli study, show that the protection is dropping off, it is prudent to develop a booster.
Note Added Friday Evening, 7/9/21, at 6:00 PM EST: Indonesia is using ivermectin in its fight against coronavirus which is a good idea since it helped in South America and elsewhere around the world. The US medical authorities diss ivermectin since they want everyone to only embrace vaccines but other countries do not have that luxury. Southeast Asia is hammered hard and should use all treatments available. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and Bangladesh are in the peak fight of the current wave. The booster shot controversy will not end in the States. The liberal-leaning networks such as CNN and MSNBC keep highlighting the correct observation that the states with the highest vaccination rates, such as Vermont and Oregon, voted democrat (for Biden against Trump) while the least-vaccinated states, such as Tennessee, voted republican (for Trump against Biden). However, there is more at play than meets the eye. The southern states with the low vaccination rates also have high black populations that are risk adverse to vaccines and it should be mentioned along with the political breakdown. The political pandemic rages on starting with the politicization of masks, then vaccines and now booster shots. By playing games, the CDC and Whitehouse only breeds mistrust. Tell the people the truth. If you had either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccine in December or January, it may be suggested in August or September that you also receive a booster shot, but that will not be known until more data is studied. What is so hard about telling the truth instead of those Pretty Little Lies?
Note Added Friday Evening, 7/9/21, at 10:00 PM EST: Everybody and his brother is weighing in on the booster shot controversy. The television pundits, medical organizations such as CDC and FDA, and even the European Medicines Agency (EMA), say boosters are not needed at this time but Pfizer, the company that makes the vaccine, says otherwise. The organizations tout that line because they want people vaccinated and telling them they need two shots then a third a few months later is a hard sell. It is bush league psychology. In a few weeks, all the same people will be telling you that a booster shot is needed. Medical professionals telling white lies about pandemic information only serves to destroy trust. The medical professionals should tell people that it is highly likely they will need a booster. Americans can handle it and the news will not significantly impact the vaccination program, if at all, plus the pundits will feel good about themselves for not lying or promoting half-truths that create confusion. Studies in the UK, Scotland and Canada are reporting about an 80% efficacy for the Pfizer vaccine. Part of the confusion over the need for a booster shot is relating the efficacy percentage to the various stages of illness including asymptomatic and symptomatic sickness, mild infection, hospitalization, severe illness, intubation and ventilation and death. If vaccinated, over time, there may be an increased chance that you become infected with coronavirus (after 6 months), but you would only exhibit mild symptoms at most, and the shots should continue protecting against severe illness and death.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/10/21, at 4:00 AM EST: As Don McLean sings in American Pie, "there's bad news on the doorstep, ... while Lenin read a book on Marx..." The US reports 27.2K daily new cases above the prior day's 25K cases and the day before that at 20K cases. The US wave 5 is confirmed and in progress. The 3 and 7-day MA's are trending higher confirming the uptrend. The 3-day MA prints a higher high. The bad news is the US active cases chart (the bell curve chart) which has leveled-off but tragically turns higher. The United States is not ready mentally for a new pandemic wave but it will punch them in the face anyway. On 7/6/21, Tuesday, the US was at 4.861 million active cases still in the downtrend although it had slowed to only a slight downward bias. On 7/7/21, there were 4.854 million active cases in the US. It is hoped that the active cases curve drops sharply to form the bell shape to verify that the pandemic has subsided but the United States chart has not been cooperating for a few weeks. Now we know why. On Thursday, 7/8/21, there were 4.859 million active cases sticking a shiv into Uncle Sam's ribs. On Friday, 4.866 million active cases are reported another higher high. The US active cases curve has stopped going down. This confirms the US wave 5 in progress. It is terrible news and will impact the US economy and kids and students trying to return to schools and universities. If the wave has legs, the US may be a mess in a few weeks perhaps not as much from coronavirus as the past waves but more so due to the economy slipping away again and families in disarray over what will happen as the school year begins. Yesterday, the US stock market, the S&P 500 Index, prints at 4372 the highest number in history. The Federal Reserve has printed money like madmen since early 2009 making America's wealthy privileged class filthy rich while the middle class disappears. Over one-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. Such is the crony capitalism system in its last throes. 366 Americans die from China Flu yesterday the most in 2 weeks. The outbreaks in the southern states and out west are worsening. 'What goes on in Vegas does not stay in Vegas' switching around the gambling city's tagline since infections are rising sharply and the vacationers are returning home with coronavirus. The mini-outbreaks in the US are turning into biggie outbreaks. The only hope is that the new US wave 5 will roll over and die quickly like wave 4 during March/April.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/10/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Japan's daily cases continue higher and the 3-day MA trend line prints a higher high. A new infection wave is confirmed in Japan as the Olympics begin in less than 2 weeks. Russia reports 26K daily new infections the most of the current wave 3 and deaths remain at record levels. UK daily new cases pop higher to 36K infections. UK PM Johnson will speak on Monday to report on the status of the 7/19/21 opening. Boris becomes faint after viewing the latest numbers. Spain crosses the 81K deaths grim milestone with daily cases continuing to skyrocket higher. The daily new cases in the Netherlands are a vertical rocket shot even more drastic than Spain's. Europe is in a new wave and will be a mess in a couple weeks. The tragedy in Southeast Asia continues. Indonesia is running out of oxygen and needs more help. Ditto Malaysia reporting 9.2K daily new cases the highest ever and 135 deaths the deadliest day of the pandemic. Thailand continues reporting record infections and deaths. Bangladesh crosses the 1 million total cases milestone and exceeds the 16K deaths grim milestone. 212 Bangladeshis die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Myanmar reports another day of record daily new infections and deaths. Infections in China are rising along the border with Myanmar. Cases are jumping higher in Pakistan beginning a new disastrous pandemic wave. Mexico reports 9.5K daily new cases the highest of the current wave. Mexico's rise in infections will impact the US southern border. The news is not good.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/11/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US reports 14.5K daily new cases yesterday. The weekend numbers, Saturday and Sunday, are typically the lightest data of the week. It is disappointing to see 15K cases when at least a sub 10K number is desired, even sub 5K. America is slipping down the coronavirus slope with arms flailing. 33 states are showing rising cases; this was 27 states only a couple days ago. 118 Americans die yesterday. Nevada reports the highest case counts since February. Missouri, Arkansas and Nevada are in bad shape as the virus spreads. Some Missouri hospitals are busier than at anytime during the pandemic and one hospital had to bring in additional ventilators. Americans are becoming sick with the India B1617 variant (delta) in greater numbers. Healthcare workers are once again shouting a word heard all too often last year; intubation.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/11/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The world cannot keep up with the chain of transmission of the India variant. Southeast Asia is a tragic hot zone remaining in need of help, oxygen and supplies. Indonesia offers free coffins to families that are burying a dead loved one. Thailand and Myanmar continue reporting the deadliest days ever with other Southeast Asia nations remaining at record deaths. South Korea reports 1.4K daily new cases the highest ever. Seoul imposes stricter lockdown measures but the covid horse has already left the barn. Japan's daily cases remain elevated but the emergency measures should tamp down infections over the coming days. Japan will become a large media focus over the next 5 weeks due to the Olympics. Russia reports 752 deaths the deadliest day ever. The UK reports 32.4K daily new cases for Saturday off the peak at 35.5K cases Friday but 4 consecutive days well above 30K cases. UK PM Boris Johnson speaks tomorrow providing an update on the planned reopening of the economy and removal of all mask and other guidelines on 7/19/21; next Monday. Boris is busy cleaning his top hat, cane and tap-dancing shoes. The UK charts are going parabolic and the sharp move higher in active cases warns that hospitalizations will be rising. Europe is in trouble as coronavirus spreads. The cases in the Netherlands skyrocket to levels only seen at the worst times of the pandemic. The Netherlands opened the bars two weeks ago but restrictions are back in place. Spain cases are also shooting vertical. France is in the process of opening bars and restaurants but are about to be slapped in the face. Wealthy Americans are bragging about plans to visit Paris but they will be flying into a coronavirus-infected nest this summer. European health officials say the younger folks are spreading the virus. Over the last few days, Cuba's daily infections go exponential. Cuba reports 7K daily new cases the most ever and 47 deaths the deadliest day ever. Cubans take to the streets protesting the escalating coronavirus, lack of opportunities and sick economy. Street protests do not happen in Cuba. The natives are getting restless around the world.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/11/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The CDC provides guidance on masking in schools. As Fauci said the other day, and the CDC repeats, and most parents would wholeheartedly agree, it is essential to get kids physically back in school this Fall. The 12 to 18 years old's, although eligible for a vaccine, are not vaccinated in high numbers. The kids participating in sports or having to meet school or university requirements got the shots but that initial activity is fading. Children under 12 years old are not eligible for vaccination so they are required to wear masks. The CDC says masks are not required for teachers and students that are vaccinated. A problem is how do you know who is vaccinated and who is not? The CDC recommends testing unvaccinated students once per week the first time testing is recommended in schools. Individual schools and universities will probably set their own rules. California plans to continue mask use in schools for all children. The Teachers Union (National Education Association and American Federation of Teachers) is powerful and in favor of stricter measures against coronavirus (which allows for an easier workday for teachers). In the US crony capitalism system, 94% of the funds the teachers union's donate to political parties are given to the democrat tribe. The teachers support democrat candidates that promote progressive agendas in the US education system. California teachers exercise their muscle. The masking and vaccination issues are heating-up as the start of the school year approaches.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 7/11/21: The booster shot discussion continues on the Sunday morning political talk shows. Lord Fauci appears on several left-leaning television and media outlets; he loves the excitement of the lights and cameras. The CDC, NIH and others are stressing to unvaccinated people that if you get the shot now, you will be good to 2022. The booster controversy started Thursday evening when Pfizer announced plans to seek approval from the FDA for a booster shot that focuses on the India B1617 variant (delta). An Israeli study reports loss of efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine after 6 months, especially in older people. The vaccine continues to protect against severe illness and death. The CDC and FDA issued a joint statement, slapping Pfizer's wrist, saying booster shots are not needed. The medical organizations are worried that the booster-talk will deter people from getting vaccinated. The CDC, FDA, NIH and US government want more data before deciding on boosters so this process would take at least another couple months. The India variant will likely be in decline in a couple months all over the world so it may be too late for the latest Pfizer concoction. Pfizer plans to meet with the CDC and HHS in a few days. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was first used on elderly folks and medical workers (doctors and nurses). These are the people that will likely first need booster shots perhaps in the September-October window. The UK is planning booster shots for people over 70 years old and Israel is planning boosters for the immunocompromised. The US will likely work towards providing booster shots this Fall focusing on seniors, healthcare workers and the immunocompromised.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 7/11/21, at 7:00 PM EST: You knew it was coming. A television ad is running in the US, especially in the less-vaccinated areas, showing an obese couple talking about contracting coronavirus. It is a pro-vaccine ad that is using negative reinforcement to encourage people to get the shot. The overweight husband says he went from sniffles to the ICU in 10 days. The couple says not getting the vaccine was the biggest mistake of their lives and now they are encouraging others to get the shot. Don't you love happy endings?
Note Added Sunday Evening, 7/11/21, at 10:00 PM EST: The annual CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) convention takes place this weekend topped-off with a speech from former, now further disgraced, President Trump. One of the speakers at the event, that provides red meat for the hard-core republican base, proclaims, "The government was hoping they could sucker the population into getting vaccinated and it is not happening." The crowd cheers. That is sick. Americans have many reasons for not taking the vaccine but the unvaccinated folks are not cheering for the country to fail with the program; only the sicko's at the CPAC event think that deranged way. The democrats cheered for Trump to fail and now the republicans cheer for Biden to fail. Crony capitalism crumbles as the two political tribes always place their self interests above what is good for the nation. The young people are smart as they register to vote and almost 50% of new voters choose to be independent casting away the republican and democrat stink. Good on them. Another speaker talking about vaccines says, "Leave us the Hell alone!" A wet behind the ears young guy spouts off about the door-to-door campaign for shots proclaiming that the "door to door mechanism...they will take your guns!" A sassy trim republican filly, Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert, shakes her money-maker on stage decreeing, "Don't come to my door with your Fauci ouchie (vaccine shot)." It sounds so sexy. The silver-haired white guys in the audience applaud uncontrollably as she sashays back and forth across the stage. The main event occurs a short time ago with King Donnie taking the stage in front of his most ardent fans; his loyal subjects. Kneel and kiss the ring. The showman proclaims, "The election was rigged" and King Donnie says he actually won the presidential election. Unbelievable. The sore loser cry baby continues whining unable to accept his loss. Donnie needs a shrink. Trump's mental focus is highlighted in Keystone's book, "President Trump's Final 80 Days," that chronicles the day before the presidential election 11/2/20 through the Biden inauguration on 1/20/21; all the sordid details including the predictable election results, the chaotic vote-counting, Trump whining, the Capitol riot and insurrection, impeachment and Donnie's ride off into the sunset. Trump's father told Donnie that if he ever lost anything in life he is a worthless piece of garbage and sh*t. Nice dad. No wonder the guy cannot accept the election loss. Every few minutes of every day, and every time Trump looks at his orange head in the mirror, he thinks about the loss and his dad standing over him calling him a loser and a piece of filthy incompetent trash. The orange-headed carnival clown needs a shrink. Delusional Trump continues the rhetoric about the election so the money and donations keep coming in to pay legal fees and other mounting costs as his businesses languish.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/12/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US reports 6.6K daily new cases a nice low Sunday number. The 3-day MA trend line for the US daily new cases is coming back down so it is key whether it makes a lower low, or not. If not, the uptrend and wave 5 remains in play. It would be great news if the 3-day MA prints a lower low but do not hold your breath; it will be known in a couple days. The India variant continues spreading in the southern US, out west, and the southern border states with Mexico are now at risk. Mexico is becoming scary reporting 9.6K daily new cases another record for the current wave. The UK remains challenged with PM Johnson planning to speak today about the reopening of the economy and dropping the coronavirus guidelines next Monday, 7/19/21. England and Italy play a championship football game last evening filling stadiums and streets with fans; Italy wins on penalties. The big game will likely be a superspreader event in the UK and in Italy. Young people are having a good time, all boozed-up, partying in the streets of both nations unconcerned about masking or social distancing. Boris had a nightmare last evening of the coronavirus chasing him past Buckingham Palace on 7/19/21. It is sad to watch Southeast Asia and the pain and suffering occurring across Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Coronavirus infections are running rampant in Iraq and Iran. Japan reports 2.5K daily new cases the highest for the current wave which is not good news with the Olympics only 11 days away. A new hot zone appears in northern Africa. Cases in Libya are skyrocketing. Ditto Algeria. Tunisia is in deep trouble with cases and deaths rising rapidly. The misery is infecting Morocco that sees a steady increase in cases. Sydney, Australia, reports the most infections in one day for the entire pandemic. Lockdown measures are extended.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/12/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Johnson & Johnson cannot catch a break reporting that 100 cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome (muscle weakness and tingling in the arms and legs and sadly, potentially, paralysis) are identified in vaccinated people. The numbers are tiny compared to the overall J&J shots administered and near the expected number of cases for society if the pandemic was not in play. Nonetheless, the side effect must be monitored and the FDA goes the full step requiring that a warning be placed in the vaccine instructions. The US military is losing patience with troops that do not want vaccinated (about 40% of the soldiers). Officers and enlisted soldiers are being pressured, forced mentally and psychologically, to kneel and accept the shot. The Pentagon and Defense Department likely expected that the official vaccine approval would have already occurred, replacing the emergency approval, so they could force shots on the remaining troops. The commanders are not waiting and instead dragging soldiers into the backroom one by one, shining a light in their eyes, and beating them with a rubber hose, until they kneel and roll up their sleeve. The pandemic is taking crazy twists and turns daily. People are going wacko after dealing with coronavirus for 18 months and now the new wave 5 and increase in cases. Parents are under stress as the school year quickly approaches and coronavirus guidelines remain complicated.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 7/12/21: Despite the ongoing outbreak of the India B1617 variant (delta) in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson steps onto a soapbox proclaiming, "It is absolutely vital we proceed now with caution." Boris decrees, "This pandemic is not over." He further warns that coronavirus "continues carrying risk for you and your family." After those dire words, Johnson is all-in with the reopening of the economy and relaxing of all COVID-19 guidelines on Monday only 6 days away. Boris is banking on the fact that 90% of the elderly and most at-risk people are vaccinated. Johnson, the gambling man, walks over to the craps table, places the UK's future on the green felt, and rolls the covid dice.
Note Added Monday Evening, 7/12/21, at 7:00 PM EST: Israel says there is no reason to vaccinate everyone with a booster shot although a third vaccination may be helpful for people over 70 years old. In Europe, 50% of the population is fully vaccinated. European Commission President von der Leyen says by the end of the month, 90% of the new coronavirus cases in Europe will be the Delta variant. France mandates vaccines for healthcare workers, nursing home workers and anyone providing care for the elderly, vulnerable and frail. The big hand of government decrees that if you want to be a doctor, nurse or healthcare giver in France, get down on your knees and roll up your sleeve. Will some folks, that feel strongly about not being vaccinated for a multitude of different reasons, leave the profession, only resulting in less care available for the people that need it? If you push on a balloon in one spot, it pokes out in a different spot. Macron says special proof of vaccination will be required to participate in events or visit bars. France President Macron, channeling his inner Napoleon, decrees that mandatory vaccines may be forced upon all citizens in the coming weeks or months. An unvaccinated Frenchman, standing by the Eiffel Tower, raises his fist in the air exclaiming, "Sacrebleu!"
Note Added Monday Evening, 7/12/21, at 10:00 PM EST: Pfizer, the CDC and FDA meet to discuss the booster shot controversy. Both sides say the meeting was productive but that is what people always say after meetings. The after-meeting acoustic performer was told not to play Kumbaya. The WHO is in an uproar complaining that much of the world remains unvaccinated while wealthy countries plan booster shots. Comments from the WHO do not carry much clout since they lay in bed with the Chinese communists each evening. The push to get US citizens vaccinated continues. The endless diatribe of vaccination messages falls on deaf ears at this stage and only serves to further divide the United States. If the India B1617 variant (delta) was not currently wreaking havoc in the US with wave 5, the vaccination rhetoric would not be as heated. Humorously, the vaccinated people keep hounding the unvaccinated folks to take the shot not because of their sincere concern for their fellow man, but instead for their own self-interest. If the variants continue mutating into new forms, the vaccines may be rendered ineffective. This is why the vaccinated people are endlessly badgering the unvaccinated to get the shot; they are more concerned about saving their own *ss and making sure they did not place mRNA into their body for naught. Of course, it is a deadly serious subject but it makes you laugh. Humans are selfish animals based on past survival instincts. Humans are wired this way.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/13/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US exceeds the 623K deaths grim milestone. America reports 14.7K daily new cases for Monday below the 7-day MA at 20.2K cases (a good thing). The 3-day MA for US daily new cases moves lower and will print the important low over the next couple days that will determine if the wave 5 peters out before it gets going, or, if it begins to accelerate. US deaths are moving sideways no longer trending lower as per the 7-day MA trend line. America needs the downtrend in deaths to resume. Florida crosses the 2.4 million total coronavirus cases milestone and reports a spike in cases since late last week. The beachgoers are loving each other and coronavirus loves them. Oh no. California reports 2.9K daily new cases the highest since April. Rising cases in California will impact the overall US data to a greater extent than other states. Pennsylvania is looking good after lifting its statewide mask guidelines 16 days ago. Officials are pleased after the lifting of the mask mandate does not result in an increase in cases. Washington state reports an ugly jump in cases. Ditto Hawaii. Tourists flock to paradise bringing the ugly gift of coronavirus. Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri remain challenged. Oh no. Mississippi reports 796 daily new cases, almost 8 hundo, the worst since February. Interestingly, the US hotspot is along the Great Mississippi River. The COVID-19 relationship with water cannot be ignored. Over these many months, outbreaks typically begin around the major port cities. Coastal countries and coastal US states are hit harder with the virus over the last 1-1/2 years. The UK B117 variant (alpha) spanked the UK; an island nation. Michigan, a land of lakes and waterways, was the epicenter of the Alpha variant in the US. The Delta variant prefers to ride the Delta Queen along the Mississippi. Future research must address the frequency of COVID-19 occurring in and around water areas including oceans, lakes, rivers, swamps and docks. From a particle size analysis perspective, tiny covid particles are piggy-backing rides on dust and water vapor particles so perhaps coronavirus has more rides available in regions with waterways? The PhD's can ponder that one. Nevada, and especially Las Vegas, health officials are begging people to get vaccinated. FEMA and the coronavirus federal surge teams, that President Biden mentioned in the speech the other day, are descending on Vegas to provide help.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/13/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Brazil's situation improves with the active cases curve rolling over to form the bell shape. President Bolsonaro comes out from under his desk to tell a handpicked crowd of supporters that he has the pandemic under control. Protestors remain in the streets calling for Bolsonaro's resignation. Conditions remain dire in Russia but Dictator Putin prohibits the state-run press from reporting on the misery. Spain's daily new cases pull back from the obscene highs at the tail-end of last week. Individuals and businesses are exercising more caution. Greece reports 2.9K daily new cases the most for the current wave. It is easy to see that the vacation spots are generating outbreaks; the beaches of Portugal, Spain and Greece. The lovely ladies in their colorful swimwear are a siren call too intoxicating for the men to resist. Coronavirus rides the waves of love. The Netherlands redoubles efforts to tamp down on the massive spike in new cases. Dutch officials apologize for reopening businesses since it has only led to disaster. Netherlands may challenge its record high in new cases from last December if the virus keeps spreading out of control. The cases in the Netherlands grow from 8K to a big 52K cases week on week. The Dutch know how to have fun but COVID-19 likes fun, too. Europe is slipping down the covid rabbit hole but with a little luck, perhaps the outbreak can fade quickly. It all depends on the data over the coming days and week or two. Indonesia reports 40.4K daily new cases the highest ever. Deaths remain elevated. Indonesia, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asia nations are fighting the peak of the pandemic right now. Mexico crosses the 235K deaths grim milestone.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/13/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Five states are accounting for the majority of new cases; Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Nevada. 36 US states show rising cases, 4 states show a drop in cases and 10 states are steady. The United States is in wave 5 of the pandemic. Doctors say that most of the new cases are unvaccinated people. Young and middle-aged folks in their 30's, 40's and 50's are accounting for most of the cases. Over 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 are unvaccinated people. This would be expected if the vaccines do what they say. The CDC and others are not providing information on the number of breakthrough cases (people that test positive for coronavirus after vaccination). This information should be released to the public. US Surgeon General Murthy says requiring vaccines for healthcare workers is a reasonable request. Of course he does. He says more data is needed before a decision occurs about booster shots. Murthy says if anyone feels sick, even with mild symptoms, they need to seek medical attention and testing immediately regardless of whether you are vaccinated or unvaccinated. This statement is telling; there are probably more breakthrough cases occurring (likely resulting in mild or no symptoms) than expected. If a journalist has access to the big shots, ask the CDC if there is detailed data available on the number of breakthrough cases occurring (positive tests, asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations, deaths). If so, why is it not released, and if not, why are you incompetent?
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/13/21, at 10:00 AM EST: The UK government reports 36,660 new coronavirus cases for today. Where's Boris? Bueller? Boris? Bueller? Over the last day, European leaders are spouting-off about the pandemic and increase in cases creating angst and confusion. German Chancellor Merkel encourages people to get vaccinated and says the Deutschland will not mandate vaccines. France moves further toward mandating universal vaccines.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/13/21, at 11:00 AM EST: California backtracks on its mask mandate for all children in school and instead says individual school districts can decide their own path forward. California is receiving lots of blowback from parents that are extremely concerned about their kid's physical, mental and emotional health wearing masks in school. The CDC says masks are not required for vaccinated people 12 years and older. New York City schools continue to not 'follow the science', requiring mask use for all students. Mayor DeBlasio will feel the heat like California officials and probably buckle at some point forward. Democrats control New York. This is why Casanova Cuomo remains governor in the midst of ongoing scandals such as the nursing home debacle early on in the pandemic resulting in thousands of unnecessary deaths. Cuomo was busy self-promoting himself and sealing a book deal as COVID-19 killed New Yorker's. America's crony capitalism system is corrupt to the core only serving as a daily playground for the dishonest and amoral republican and democrat tribes. Several states are allowing school districts to set the coronavirus rules which is a good approach since local people know their local community and its needs not the federal government. Seven states have passed legislation preventing the mandating of masks and banning vaccine requirements in public schools; Indiana, Arkansas, Montana, Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama and Florida. Coronavirus cases are rising in these states (sans Montana). The latest US weekly data shows 46 states with rising cases. Not good.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/13/21: 25% of the kids between 12 and 15 years old are fully vaccinated, 1 in 4, the lowest percentage of all age groups. The data indicate that parents are apprehensive about their children receiving the vaccine. When the mRNA vaccines were approved for younger folks a few weeks ago, the kids active in sports enthusiastically received the shots since it meant that they could participate. Other children are vaccinated due to school requirements. Some families with Mom, Dad and the kid, or nowadays Mom and Mom and the kid, or Dad and Dad and the kid, may want vaccinated since the household is then all squared-away and would not need masks around each other. The pundits in the media discuss the anticipated official approval of the vaccines each day. Most doctors and scientists expect the low vaccination rate to improve once the official vaccine approval replaces the emergency approval currently in place. The pundits have discussed the potential decoupling of cases from the hospitalizations and deaths over the last month. Not so. The US hospitalizations are increasing after the daily new cases rise, as is always the case for the last 1-1/2 years. The vaccines, however, will cut down on the deaths so hopefully the Grim Reaper remains decoupled from the cases and hospitalizations. The CDC COVID Data Tracker displays the cliff-dive of the US vaccination rate. If it was a stock chart, you would have lost all your money. Based on the 7-day average, the US vaccination rate drops to 370K shots per day from the peak at 3.4 million shots per day in early April. Over the last 3 months, the US vaccination rate crashes -89% [(3.4-0.37)/3.4]. Taps are appropriate. As the vaccination rate collapses, hospital admissions and hospitalizations increase. The pundits have suddenly gone quiet about the decoupling of cases and hospitalizations. The majority of new patients are unvaccinated folks but the CDC and other officials are not releasing detailed data on the number of breakthrough cases. The new wave 5 outbreak in the US is labeled as a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Of course the majority of the patients are the unvaccinated but the numbers remain sketchy without the breakthrough data provided. 20 US states have over one-half of the population vaccinated which means 30 states do not.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 7/13/21, at 5:00 PM EST: A top Tennessee vaccine official, Dr Michelle Fiscus, is fired from her position after she posts a message reminding doctors and healthcare workers that the law (Tennessee) allows 14 to 17 year old's to get vaccinated without parental approval. The politicians in the republican-leaning state go ballistic since the message does not fit their narrative. Officials do not want the public informed of the law which holds true for all vaccines administered in Tennessee so they fire the messenger. Fiscus has a good lawsuit; the ambulance-chasing lawyers are likely knocking at her door now competing to represent her legal case. The United States and the world gets nuttier each day. Everyone wants to protect their little thiefdoms. The CDC says 58% of the new coronavirus cases in the US are the India B1617 variant (delta). People become sicker as politicians play baby games. In an interview with Greta Van Susteren, former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta (liberal) says vaccines should be mandatory for the military. Panetta, HHS Secretary Becerra and France President Macron are mandate lovers.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/14/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The UK reports 36.66K daily new cases yesterday the highest of the current wave 4 and an ominous number (666). Boris is sweating profusely as he picks out party favors for Monday's festivities. Hospitalizations are rising so the UK, like the US, are realizing that the link between daily new cases, and hospitalizations following along a couple weeks later, continues. There is no decoupling. Sadly, UK deaths pop to 50 the deadliest day since April. It would be horrible news if the decoupling is not in place for deaths as well. The UK is the test case for the Delta variant so if deaths rise in England, as the hospitalizations rise, as the daily cases rise, the same will likely occur worldwide, including America. London Mayor Khan decides to maintain masking on public transportation going against PM Johnson's grand reopening plans of optional masking. Holy smokes! Spain reports 44K daily new cases a rocket launch into the stratosphere blowing away any past numbers of the pandemic. The Euro football matches are creating the big jump in infections; the stadium crowds are superspreader events. Remember, England and Italy played the championship game a few days ago so using Spain as the example, cases will likely spike wildly higher in the UK and Italy in the coming days. Football revelers joyously waving banners and flags while swigging down beer are now doubled-over trying to breathe realizing that they will have to call a doctor. The UK and Italy hospitals would be wise to immediately staff-up hospitals and stock-up on PPE and other supplies. Get your game faces on and we are talking covid not football. 780 Russians die from the China Flu yesterday the deadliest day ever. The Ruskies are dropping like flies but no one cares since Dictator Putin prevents the media from informing the world. Indonesia and Malaysia are the epicenter of the pandemic worldwide with infections and deaths remaining at record levels. Bangladesh is in terrible shape with people dying in the streets. Cases continue rising in Sydney, Australia, and the lockdown is extended to 7/31/21. The population is unhappy. The natives are getting restless. Free people find it difficult to be confined. Communists are used to living in their tiny home jail cells. Speaking of communist dictatorships, Cuba infections and deaths from covid are at record levels. Street protests are not permitted in the communist state but thousands march anyway. 100 people disappear taken away by Cuban police. They will be jailed, tortured and probably killed. The protests will only increase infections and create more coronavirus misery and death. The China Flu may be the catalyst that creates an overthrow of the communist dictatorship. About 10% of Aussies are vaccinated according to the WHO. Infections rise in the New South Wales region. In the Middle East, Iraq is dealing with the highest number of infections for the entire pandemic. Sadly, a tragic fire at an Iraqi hospital takes 92 lives. A sparking electrical wire ignites oxygen cannisters. As people run for their lives, the ceiling caves-in trapping dozens that burn to death in a horrific funeral pyre. The bodies are burned beyond recognition. Families are in shock. Rather than the electrical wire story, the fire was likely started by a jackass smoking too close to oxygen tanks. Don't do that.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/14/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The US reports 28.9K daily new cases. Sunnavab*tch. That is bad. Real bad. Almost 30K daily new US cases is the highest since mid-May. Oh no. The 3-day MA for US daily cases comes down for the low and moves higher again; the low is a higher low not a lower low so the uptrend and America's pandemic wave 5 is in full swing. The 7-day MA is at 23.9K cases, call it 24K, pointing higher, so any daily case numbers sub 24K will be great news but everyday the new cases exceed 24K is another nail in the US covid coffin. US deaths edge a touch higher at a 241 deaths per day average. Dear Lord. Arkansas is a rocket ship of infections with 1.5K daily new cases yesterday the most since early February. 15 die in Arkansas a significant jump and the most since March. Cases rise in Mississippi. The Mississippi State Department is censoring Facebook and other social media posts on the basis of COVID-19 misinformation. However, who decides what is misinformation? These are troubling times. The chronology continues to be shadow-banned by social media and their algorithms. Nevada reports nearly 900 new cases. Coronavirus is joyfully hopping from bed to bed in Vegas and not following the city's signature tagline instead proclaiming, 'what happens in Vegas (coronavirus) is not staying in Vegas'. Oregon reports 2,800 total deaths from COVID-19 and cases are rising. Washington state reports a rise in cases. Here we go again with the ports on the West Coast. Infections are likely rising as goods change hands around the waterways. Oh my. Maine has been strutting around with its chest puffed-out one of only a handful of states that are not seeing a rise in cases, until yesterday. Maine reports 65 daily new cases the highest since last month. Maine jumps into the covid-infected waters pushing the lobsters aside. Indiana reports a jump in cases. Florida reports elevated daily cases for 6 days running. Oh no. This is big. Big as the state of Texas. The Lonestar State reports 3.6K daily new cases a substantial jump the highest since April. The infections from Central America and Mexico move north with the migrants and through everyday border trade. This is not good. Oh, for Pete's sake. California reports 3.5K daily new cases the highest since early April. California, Texas and Florida are heavily-populated states and increased COVID-19 caseloads strengthen the United States wave 5 uptrend which is a bad thing.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/14/21, at 11:10 AM EST: Dr Aileen Marty comments on the rising cases in Florida on CNN media. She says if things do not change, the pandemic will get worse. Marty is especially worried about the new virus outbreak causing long-covid cases. The longer the pandemic continues, simple math dictates that there will be more long-covid cases. Buy stock in oxygen companies. Arkansas is experiencing a scary exponential rise in COVID-19 cases. Officials lash-out at social media blaming 'misinformation' and 'conspiracy theories' for the rise in cases. Maybe the boogey-man, too. The officials blame the internet for deterring people from getting vaccinated which is creating the rise in infections in Arkansas. Maybe the jackasses should consider their own inept management of the pandemic. Only 35% of Arkansans are fully vaccinated and only 43% partially vaccinated.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 7/14/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Pretty teenybopper pop singing star Olivia Rodrigo performs a public service announcement (PSA) encouraging young people to get vaccinated. Older folks ask, "Who dat?" The young age demographic from 12 to 30 years old are not taking the shots like other age groups. The current coronavirus illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are mainly occurring in unvaccinated people but the statistic is meaningless without detailed data from the government concerning breakthrough cases. They have the data they are simply not providing it to the public. Perhaps a disturbing story out of Mississippi provides clarity as to why the detailed breakthrough data is not provided. As reported during an interview on MSNBC media (liberal-leaning network) with NIH Director Dr Collins, who is involved in the Wuhan Lab leak scandal along with Dr Fauci, '7% of the deaths in Mississippi are vaccinated people'. REPEAT. 7% OF THE DEATHS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE VACCINATED PEOPLE. Right away, the question is if these were coronavirus deaths or if there were comorbidities involved such as chronic heart and lung issues or cancer. The breakthrough data is needed so people can make informed decisions. Mississippi State Health Official Dr Thomas Dobb says there is "tragedy on the way" because of "a surge in cases in kids." Dobbs urges all Mississippians to get vaccinated. Dobbs tweets; "Pretty much ALL cases in MS (Mississippi State) are Delta variant right now (the current data shows over 80% of the tests are the India variant (delta)). Vast majority of cases/hospitalizations/deaths UNVACCINATED. 7% of deaths in vaccinated worrisome - we are allowing too much circulating Delta to reach our most vulnerable." Mississippi says 7 children are in ICU with 2 on a ventilator. The pandemic becomes more complicated. America needs to know details about the 7% of deaths in vaccinated Mississippians. Officials tell people to get vaccinated since 93% of the deaths are unvaccinated folks and the children are now becoming sicker. The Mississippi news must be hitting a nerve with the Whitehouse because Surgeon General Murthy announces plans to speak tomorrow. Vaccines are seen as the only way out of the pandemic so Murthy will use every trick in his bag including pulling an uninfected rabbit out of a hat trying to encourage folks to get vaccinated. The left-leaning media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC) in the US is setting-up tomorrow's Murthy show by running stories blaming right-leaning media (Fox News, Newsmax, OANN) for vaccine misinformation and conspiracy theories. However, the liberal media dubs itself as the king decider of what is misinformation and what is not. America is in a sick place. Vaccines may not be the complete panacea. Herd immunity has been kicking in for America over the last few months since many people have had covid which creates natural antibodies. The India B1617 variant is creating angst in the US currently but wave 5 may quickly roll over and die like wave 4. Murthy's talk will be interesting tomorrow to see if he further fuels and fans the political pandemic flames. Fauci says children over 2 years old should wear a mask. Parents pull their hair out because it is difficult to keep a mask on a child plus studies show masks negatively impact their physical (headaches, teeth problems, etc..), mental and emotional development.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/14/21, at 7:00 PM EST: President Biden finally reaches the goal of fully vaccinating 160 million Americans. He was only about a week late so he can be given credit. Trump missed the goal of having 20 million people vaccinated by the end of 2020 but the orange man did achieve the goal by the last day of his presidency on 1/20/21 and deserves credit. America forgot how to work in a united way. The race divisions, ethnic divides and police problems escalated in the US under former President Obama's watch which ironically was when everyone expected race issues to improve. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that only 67.8% of US adults are inoculated with at least one shot. Biden may never reach the 70% goal. The Whitehouse needs the official approval for the vaccines so the military, businesses, schools and universities can shove the shots down the soldiers and employees throats. That decision will send the number quickly over 70%. Most doctors and medical pundits expected the official vaccine approval by now. About 184 million Americans, 56% of the population, have at least one dose of an emergency-approved vaccine coursing though their veins.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/14/21, at 9:00 PM EST: Charlotte, North Carolina, is employing vaccine teams into neighborhoods to knock on doors. Activists say the program is targeting homebound individuals. Why can't the homebound people that need help simply call them on the telephone? They can. Door to door vaccination lobbying is a big mistake. Someone is going to get hurt or killed. A stupid official says he is trying to make it easy "for people to get this shot" but ironically he may actually end up making it easy for someone to get shot. Knocking on city doors is not a good idea but rural doors is even worse. People living in rural areas cannot rely on police if there is trouble since it takes too long for them to arrive. Therefore, most have guns for protection and will not take kindly to a jackass showing up on the property asking about vaccination status. The door to door situation is not going to end well. Charlotte can serve as a test case for the door to door nonsense and if someone gets hurt, the blood is on the government's hands. South Carolina disagrees with its northern neighbor. Governor McMaster says the "the decision to get vaccinated is a personal one for them to make and not the governments." Ohio republican Governor DeWine signs a bill disallowing vaccine mandates at schools and universities. The door to door vaccination stuff will only serve to further divide the country and create more social unrest and violence. Perhaps it is Our Destiny.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/15/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Sadly, the world reports 555K daily new cases the highest since May. The China Flu continues spreading around the planet. The UK reports 42.3K daily new cases exploding above the 40K level now looking at 50K. Spain sees a huge jump in cases due to football games so the UK cases, especially among young people, surely have lots more upside ahead. Spain's Catalonia region implements a curfew. PM Johnson is hoping that opening the economy and removing all covid guidelines in 3 days will not result in more hospitalizations and deaths. Johnson believes that COVID-19 can now be handled like the yearly flu and people can get on with life. UK health officials have doubts. Boris is rolling the covid dice each day hoping for a big payoff. Dirtbag Dictator Putin sets another new deadly record. 786 Ruskies die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. The Netherlands reports 10.4K daily new cases another high for the current parabolic wave and highest since December. Netherlands reimposes work from home requirements that were only removed a couple weeks ago. This is a great demonstration of clueless leadership. Europe faces a difficult summer ahead. France is preventing unvaccinated people from entering bars or restaurants. France is using a "health pass" to allow entry but only if vaccinated or having proof of a negative test. A Frenchman standing outside a cafe, holding a wine bottle in one hand and cigarette in the other, complains that he is not able to buy baguette. What is the world coming to? Sacrebleu! Morocco cases leap higher the most since December so northern Africa is engulfed with a new COVID-19 wave. Southeast Asia remains a hotspot, ditto south and southeastern Africa, ditto Central America and Mexico. Authorities on each side of the US southern border are feverishly working to vaccinate Mexicans and Americans. The US wants to set up a firewall to stop the spread north especially if it is dominated by the Peru C37 variant (lambda). Thailand crosses the 3K deaths grim milestone. Myanmar is covid Hell on earth with cases spiking above 7K per day. 145 die in Myanmar, previously known as Burma, the deadliest day of the pandemic. Indonesia reports 55K daily new cases the highest ever. Malaysia reports nearly 12K daily new cases the highest ever. South Korea is a pandemic mess. Once the model for the world last year on how to handle the pandemic, South Korea now reports daily new cases above 1.6K the highest ever. As cases rise, testing and tracking programs quickly lose effectiveness. Botswana daily cases set new records. Deaths in Africa are rising at an alarming rate. Melbourne, Australia, goes into lockdown as cases rise. Nearly everywhere you look, the coronavirus news worsens.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/15/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 35.4K daily new cases. Drat. This is terrible. The US active cases chart is curling higher an ominous development. Wave 4 performed the same way before it petered-out so hope springs eternal. Sadly, US deaths are showing an upward bias. As per the Keystone Model, if the daily new cases number yesterday is the peak for the current wave 5, it targets 8/12/21 as when the US active cases curve will flatten and roll over lower again. Thus, US hospitals, especially in the southern and western states, should staff-up and tell healthcare workers to expect to be busy this month and into the first week of August. The US funeral director's order a few more coffins. California reports 3.9K daily new cases another record for the current new wave and not seen since March. Florida reports 6.4K daily new cases the highest of the current wave and most since April. Where's republican Governor DeSantis that wants to be president in 2024? DeSantis? Bueller? DeSantis? Bueller? DeSantis brags that he did the best job of handling the pandemic. Well, get off the can and keep handling it, dude. Tennessee reports 816 cases the highest since May. North Carolina reports nearly 1K daily new cases yesterday the highest since May and sadly crosses the 1 million total cases milestone. North Carolina activists are knocking on people's doors asking their vaccination status. "Your vaccination status, please," sounds a lot like the scary trope that changed the world many decades ago, "Your papers please."
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/15/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Surgeon General Vivek Murthy speaks from the Whitehouse briefing room as the push to get Americans vaccinated continues. Murthy proclaims that misinformation and disinformation about the pandemic poses an "imminent and insidious threat to our nation's health." Dude, if you want to reach common people do not use ten-dollar college words. Murthy's job is to identify misinformation and correct it in real-time but instead he provides platitudes and politically-charged rhetoric. It is not helpful. Murthy says, "Millions of Americans are still not protected against COVID-19, and we are seeing more infections among those who are unvaccinated." He says two-thirds of Americans (KFF data) that "are not vaccinated either believe common myths about the COVID-19 vaccine or think some of those myths might be true. Myths like you can get COVID-19 from the vaccine, which is absolutely not true." Why isn't he and other pundits saying this every day on television instead of the vaccine shaming, fear-mongering and spewing negative rhetoric at unvaccinated folks? He says, "Simply put, health misinformation has cost us lives." Again, why then are you not identifying each item of misinformation and correcting it daily on television? People need repetition before the information sinks into their brains. Murthy proclaims, "Nearly every death we are seeing now from COVID-19 could have been avoided." He should also state that most of the deaths are fat people and those with comorbidities. You do not want to contract coronavirus if you are overweight. Murthy says an advisory report is provided that explains how to dispel misinformation (he decides what is misinformation and what is not) about coronavirus. He says that coronavirus information is based on "the best evidence at the time." This is a convenient way of never accepting responsibility in the future. It is difficult to understand how Murthy's speech will do any good but at least he is trying. The US government knew going into the vaccination program that 20% of the population would not take the shot. Lo and behold, about 20% do not want the shot. Duh. That is failed leadership for not planning for what you knew would happen. The India B1617 variant (delta) has everyone in a tizzy but it would be best to let things play out for a week or two. The US wave 5 may roll over like wave 4. There is herd immunity occurring in the country. There are unvaccinated people in the northeast US states, that have the highest participation in the vaccination program, and cases are remaining subdued (it does not matter that some people chose not to get vaccinated). 68% of Americans have at least one shot. Between 10% and 30% of Americans have natural antibodies from having covid although some of these folks have gotten vaccinated either as an extra safety measure or because they simply did not know they had coronavirus (asymptomatic). Thus, 78% plus of the US population has antibody protection which is a great argument for herd immunity. People need to take a chill pill and give the data a few days or week or two. The pandemic is already 1-1/2 year along in the States and 2 years along in communist China, where the horror started, so a few more days are no big deal.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/15/21, at 2:00 PM EST: The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox baseball game is cancelled after six Yankee players test positive for coronavirus. These are breakthrough cases. Hey CDC, where's the detailed breakthrough data for the United States? Inquiring minds want to know. Early reports say the Yankee breakthrough cases involve both the J&J and mRNA vaccines. Los Angeles County, California, reinstates the mask mandate in all indoor settings regardless of vaccination status. Other areas of the US may follow. The promise was always to get the shot and then you do not need a mask, but in LA it is get the shot and still wear a mask. RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus), that typically infects children in the winter season, is spreading among kids in the summer. Pediatricians says the change in quarantine and masking guidelines opens the children to RSV infections (susceptible hosts) and some may have slightly weakened immune systems. RSV has been absent during the pandemic like regular flu cases since everyone was masked for 15 months. Two pig farms in Germany confirm cases of ASF (African Swine Flu). German daily new coronavirus cases are running above 1.5K for the last 2 days. Remember how the ASF outbreaks and COVID-19 outbreaks went hand in hand at port cities of several west coast African nations a few months ago? It is interesting that wherever ASF surfaces, COVID-19 tends to appear as well.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/15/21, at 4:00 PM EST: Sadly, the Biden administration spits on the Constitution and First Amendment Right to Free Speech. Pressroom Secretary Jen Psaki says the administration (Whitehouse staff and HHS) is working with Facebook and other social media companies to flag problematic (in their political minds) posts that spread misinformation and disinformation on coronavirus. The country is lost when the US government joins corporations in censoring what individuals are allowed, and not allowed, to say. It is sick but not surprising as the crony capitalism system crumbles away. Beware the government-industrial-military complex. The US First Amendment: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." The United States government admits on July 15, 2021, that it is working with corporations to censor information. It is a sad day.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/16/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The world is about to tag 190 million total China Flu cases around the world. China screwed the planet with the Wuhan Virus. 563K world citizens contract COVID-19 yesterday the highest of the current wave and most since May. The misery continues. The 7-day MA trend line for worldwide deaths is dead flat deciding to either break up (bad), or down (good). Brazil crosses the 539K total deaths grim milestone but at least the latest virus wave is subsiding. President Bolsonaro is in the hospital the last few days with hiccups and stomach issues. He is likely acting to seek sympathy from the protesters in the streets demanding his resignation. Politics is Hollywood for ugly people. Among all nations, Bolsonaro may be the most incompetent leader at handling the pandemic over the last 1-1/2 years. Everyday is another deadliest day for Russia and yesterday is no different. The UK covid saga continues with 49K daily new cases occurring yesterday. The illnesses from the football games are starting to kick-in, perhaps accelerate, as Prime Minister Johnson finalizes the cake selection (Devil's food) for the grand UK reopening and casting away of coronavirus restrictions starting Monday. 63 UK citizens die yesterday as the deaths keep increasing. The UK said cases had decoupled from hospitalizations and deaths. Not so. The UK active cases chart curls higher which verifies the rise in hospital admissions. Deaths follow along after the hospitalizations so nothing has changed during the pandemic only the magnitude of the deaths should remain below prior waves. Mexico reports 12.1K daily new cases another spike higher. The vaccination program at the southern border is helping the Texas-side but the Mexican-side is challenged. The data on the Southeast Asia pandemic epicenter is depressing each day. Indonesia and Malaysia report record cases. Oxygen is needed across Southeast Asia and Africa. The human death and misery inflicted on the world by communist China is multi-century historic. Once the world heals, all nations will unite, and the CCP will pay.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/16/21, at 3:30 AM EST: Japan crosses the 15K deaths grim milestone with the Olympics only a week away. Two broadcasters test positive. USA basketball player Bradley Beal tests positive for covid and is out of the Olympics. The negative talk around the Olympics from newscasters and politicians is disappointing. People should shut their trap and let the athletes compete. Japan daily new cases pop to 3.2K so the naysayers have more fuel for their negative rhetoric. Japan has lots of safety measures in place so the athletes should be fine. There is a change to the medals ceremonies. Instead of the medal placed around the neck of a winner, a tray will be handed to the winner and they will place the medal around their neck themselves. Many athletes probably prefer this anyway considering the pandemic but the naysayers complain about the change. The negative folks are complaining that fans are not allowed to attend the games but a couple weeks ago they complained that fans were allowed to attend. Polls say 8 of 10 Japanese are not in favor of the games. Once the competitions begin, the negative talk will fade. Humans are adult cry babies these days.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/16/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US exceeds 624K total deaths from the Wuhan Flu. US deaths average 262 souls per day as per the 7-day MA that moves higher (bad). More bad news. America reports 36.7K daily new cases for yesterday the highest of the current wave 5. Cases are rising in all 50 states verifying the ongoing wave 5. The Friday data (today) is typically the highest of the week so this time tomorrow we will know if the 40K level is tagged. The US started to report sub 10K days for daily cases but that is on hold as the India variant plays out. California reports 3.4K daily new cases off the 3.9K cases from the prior day. Direction matters so there is a glimmer of hope that the current wave, due to the Delta variant, may be manageable. Texas shows the same behavior with elevated cases but off the prior day's peak. The vaccination firewall at the southern border may be helping Texas but cases inch higher in New Mexico and Arizona and jump higher in Mexico as mentioned above. Florida is bad news reporting over 7K daily new cases yesterday the highest of the current wave. Florida's active cases curve curls higher (bad) and deaths are rising. Governor DeSantis must be sleeping. Pennsylvania, that has been doing great, now reports a spike in cases. Missouri cases are at record levels for the current wave. Ditto Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Washington and North Carolina. Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oregon and other states remain challenged going into the weekend.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/16/21, at 8:00 AM EST: The major media outlets report on the sad news of a 30% increase in overdoses during the pandemic. Experts cite the isolation of the pandemic as a major reason for the deaths. Speaking of misinformation, the overdose death messaging in the United States over the last 5 years has been problematic. Vital pain medications such as hydrocodone (Vicodin) are stupidly taken away from chronic pain patients in the backlash against pain medications. The addicts are not dying from heroin, cocaine, meth or other dangerous drugs (generally); it is fentanyl. China (the filthy CCP) flooded the southern borders with fentanyl over the last decade which is orders of magnitude more powerful than heroin or morphine. A huge number of the overdose deaths are due to the drug mix containing fentanyl. The addict is dead when the fentanyl snakebite hits their veins. The overdose situation in the US the last few years is due to fentanyl. The addicts simply want to get high and do not want to die. They do not know what they are putting in their veins. A couple years ago in the local area, a sister went looking for her brother and found him lying on the side of the road. When she turned him over, the syringe was still sticking out of his forearm. Fentanyl strikes again. The pandemic has created depression and stress in people's lives but you have to buck up and handle it. If you do not, no one else will. As pretty and talented Margo sings in Letting Me Down, "everybody's lonely." Moderna is placed into the S&P 500 Index (the US stock market: SPX). MRNA stock rallies over +10%. The wealthy dance with glee.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/16/21, at 2:00 PM EST: President Biden is asked about Facebook and social media companies posting information about coronavirus (that may deter people from getting vaccinated). Biden decrees, "They're killing people. They're killing people."
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