Sunday, July 30, 2017

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 7/31/17

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 7/31/17. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For the S&P 500 in history, the all-time record high print is 2484.04 on 7/27/17 and the all-time closing high is 2477.83 on 7/26/17. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2017, the intraday high is 2484.04 and closing high is 2477.83. For 2017, the intraday low is 2245.13 from the first trading day of the year on 1/3/17 and the closing low for the year thus far is at 2257.83 on 1/3/17. For 2016, the intraday high is 2277.53 on 12/13/16 and closing high at 2271.72 on 12/13/16. For 2016, the intraday low is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low for 2016 is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 is 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and closing low for 2015 is 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

The SPX price remains above the 20-day MA above the 50-day MA above the 100 above the 150 above the 200. Ditto with the weekly chart with the 20-wk MA above the 50-wk MA above the 100 above the 150 above the 200. The moving average ribbons are stretched to the upside indicating that price needs a mean reversion lower. The S&P 500 has not touched the 20-week MA, now at 2404, since last November when President Trump was elected. The 20-week MA will need back tested as well as the 50-week MA at 2297 at some point forward.

The Federal Reserve finally acknowledges the lack of inflation last week. This hints that the Fed will not raise rates again this year but the FOMC sticks to its projection of at least one more hike this year. The bond market does not expect a rate hike until March 2018. After this development last Wednesday, 7/26/17, the US dollar fell lower to a 93-handle sending commodities such as oil, copper and gold higher, and commodity and energy stocks higher, which in turn sends the broad indexes to new all-time highs. The central bankers are the market.

As the US dollar index pops, the euro drops. This causes angst across the pond since the stock indexes in Europe will drop if the euro rises. ECB President Draghi will talk down the euro which should create a relief rally in the US dollar. Draghi plans to attend Jackson Hole Economic Forum 8/24/17-8/26/17 and will speak. Draghi’s speech in 26 days will move markets.

For Monday, 7/31/17, the end of the month (EOM), the bulls are going to register another winning month. July began at 2423 so the bulls should be able to remain above here to close out the month. The monthly charts receive new data points after the Monday trade.

The bulls need to push up through 2474-2475 and the door is open to test 2478 resistance the all-time closing high. If 2478 is taken out then price will seek 2484 the all-time high. The S&P 500 printed above 2480 but did not yet close above 2480. Keystone’s 80/20 Rule says 8’s lead to 2’s and 2’s lead to 8’s. If the SPX closes a day or two above 2480, the pathway is open to the 2520-2530 level. Thus, the bears need to make a stand now if they want to create market negativity.

The market bears need to push the SPX under that 2464-2465 support level and price will then seek the 2459-2461 support. If this level fails, an important knock-down drag-out big-time decision is on tap at the 2449-2454 support gauntlet which includes the record highs from June, the 20-day MA at 2452 and the very important short-term market signal the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2451. If 2451 fails, the stock market will be in trouble and begin falling like a rock. A move through 2465-2473 is sideways action for Monday, 7/31/17. Generally, the bulls are not worried about any little pull back unless the SPX drops below 2454.

The strongest support/resistance is 2484, 2478, 2475, 2473, 2468, 2464-2465, 2459-2461, 2453-2454, 2449-2450, 2442-2443, 2436, 2431, 2428, 2419, 2415-2416, 2412, 2404, 2400-2401 and 2394-2396.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser. The data is current up through 7/30/17.

2484.04 Previous Week’s High
2484 (7/27/17 All-Time Intraday High: 2484.04) (7/27/17 Intraday High for 2017: 2484.04)
2483
2482
2481
2480
2478 (7/27/17 All-Time Closing High: 2477.83) (7/27/17 Closing High for 2017: 2477.83)
2477
2476
2475
2474
2473.53 Friday HOD
2473
2472.10 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2472
2468
2465
2464.66 Friday LOD
2464
2461
2460
2459.93 Previous Week’s Low
2459
2457
2456
2454 (6/19/17 Intraday High: 2453.82)
2453 (6/19/17 Closing High: 2453.46)
2451.76 (20-day MA)
2450.55 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2450
2449
2446
2443
2442
2439
2436
2435.19 (50-day MA)
2434
2432
2431
2428
2426
2423.31 July Begins Here
2423
2419
2416
2415
2412
2406
2404.24 (20-week MA)
2404
2402.16 (100-day MA)
2401 (3/1/17 Intraday High: 2400.98)
2400
2396 (3/1/17 Closing High: 2395.96)
2394
2390
2389
2387
2382
2380
2378
2375
2373
2370
2369.49 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2368
2365
2363
2361
2359
2357
2356
2355
2353
2351
2349
2345
2343
2342
2340
2338
2336
2335
2329
2326.05 (10-month MA)
2322.26 (200-day MA)
2322
2311
2300
2299.98 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal; the cliff)
2299
2298
2297
2296.69 (50-week MA)
2296
2293
2290
2289
2286
2285
2281
2280
2279
2278 (12/13/16 Intraday High; 2277.53)
2277
2275
2274
2273
2272 (12/13/16 Closing High: 2271.72)
2271
2270
2269
2268
2265
2263
2260
2258 (1/3/17 Closing Low for 2017: 2257.83)
2254
2252
2249
2245 (1/3/17 Intraday Low for 2017: 2245.13)
2241
2239 (12/30/16 Closing Low: 2238.83)
2238.83 Trading for 2017 Begins Here
2238
2234 (12/30/16 Intraday Low: 2233.62)
2214
2213 (11/25/16 Intraday and Closing High: 2213.35)
2212
2211
2210
2209
2207
2206
2205
2202
2200.53 (20-month MA)
2200
2199
2198
2195

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