Sunday, July 9, 2017

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Monthly Chart for Last 35 Years; Expansion Pattern

The 10-year yield came down for another matching low last year and that marked a nice bottom for yield as evidenced by the positive divergence in play which sent yield higher. Yield is not yet up to the 3% level from early 2014 but the indicators such as RSI and stochastics are already printing above prior highs indicating more upside strength is available for yield.

Yield popped above that blue trend line and then came back for a back kiss since that trend line is important since 2006. Yield successfully back tests the blue line and bounces to 2.39% to end last week.

Note the purple expansion pattern that started back in the mid-1980's. Yield respects the pattern and may venture higher to tease around the top rail at 3.00%-3.25%. For such a long downtrend the expectation is a lot of sideways ahead as yield stabilizes after an over 30-year note and bond rally (higher prices lower yields). The consensus on Wall street proclaim that inflation is here and the 10-year will be above 3% this year. All those same people have said the same thing before. Yield may have enough spunk for 2.7%-2.8% but there is likely a lot of sideways action ahead. A dip under the blue line will send yield lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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