Equities remain elevated near all-time highs but the bears fight back today. Thursday was the big market down day, followed by the big recovery day on Friday, and now more weakness today. The VIX above 13 creates market negativity. If VIX drops under 13, equities will recover. Bears win if VIX stays above 13 and moves higher going forward.
The SPX starts the week at 1978 and fell like a stone at the opening bell. The bulls need only two points today, to touch the 1980 handle and this resistance will immediately give way with price running to test the all-time highs at 1985-1986 in very quick order. The bears need to push under the very strong 1960-1961 support level to accelerate the downside which will be substantial if this strong support fails. Even more interesting is that an air pocket exists between 1949 and 1928 so the 1949-1951 support level would be the last chance for the bulls to hold back the selling. A move today through 1962-1981 is sideways action to begin the week which is occurring.
The SPX is printing 1970 as one-half of Monday's trade is over. Note that today is a fight for the critical 20-day MA at 1968.44. Bounce or die. Bulls must hold this 1968-1969 level or failure will occur. Bears need the SPX under the 20-day MA as soon as possible. The bears need to move the SPX under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1957.44 to lock in sustainable multi-day and perhaps multi-week and longer downside for the stock market.
As this missive was typed, the VIX drops under 13 and is now down at 12.88 so stocks recover. SPX is 1972.31 now down only 6 points on the day. The 1973 offers up strong overhead resistance. If this should give way, price will seek the strong 1976 R next. The SPX bounces off the 20-day MA today so the bulls are content with the price action.