Tuesday, July 15, 2014

SPX Daily Chart Rising Wedges Negative Divergence in Place and Developing Standard Deviation Bands Tightening

The red lines for the indicators to begin July hghlight the negative divergence that wanted a spank down in price, which occurred. Last week, however, the VST juice with the RSI and MACD line (short green lines) wanted to see another price high (the MACD printed a hair higher after price had already come off the top; for firm neggie d you need the price high and the negative divergence in the indicator to be in place at the same time). So price printing inside the rosy red circle would create that matching or higher high satisfying that last bit of juice in the MACD line and RSI. As long as the indicators do not move above the rosy red lines in the right margin for the indicators, the neggie d would be in place and firm across all time periods creating a firm market top so a negative outcome ahead is very likely.

Note that the upper standard deviation band is 1985-ish so it would actually be beneficial formarket bears to simply print this 1985-plus number and be done with it. At today's HOD at 1983 that is so close to a matching high at 1985 that the case can be made that the high is in and this is close enough for government work. The pink arrows show how the standard deviation bands are squeezing in tight for a big move. The tight bands do not forecast direction only that a big move is about to occur. Interestingly, this gels exactly together with the major Bradley turn date tomorrow that forecasts this week, and a couple days next week, as a window for a market inflection point either strongly higher or strongly lower (Bradley dates do not forecast direction only that a market inflection point will occur).

The MACD line is already dropping even with price moving higher which is bearish. The RSI, stochastics and money flow will need to drop under the 50% levels to verify a bearish path ahead. The projection is for price to top out now or in the days ahead and head lower for the days and weeks and probably months forward. This currently printing 1970 level is key since it is yesterday's low. A downside acceleration will occur if it is lost. Price will likely seek the 20-day MA at 1965 and rising as an initial downside projection. The HOD today is 1982.52 round it to 1983 very very near the highs from seven days ago (a matching high) so it would not at all be surprising to see the markets roll over from here. Considering the seasonality factors with OpEx week typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high, and that the Fed Congressional testimony typically results in a bullish two-day period about 80% of the time, stocks may recover to print inside that rosy red bubble still yet. Nonetheless, the market top is at hand or likely very very near.

As this is typed, the SPX loses the 1970 so a downside acceleration of a few handles is forecasted, and occurs. LOD thus far is 1965.34 immediately dumping five handles once 1970 support failed. The SPX drops and bounces directly off the 20-day MA at 1964.78 (1965). Use the 20-day MA as a key market metric moving forward. Bulls win above 1965. Bears win below 1965. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.