Thursday, July 3, 2014

Keystone's Midday Market Action 7/3/14; ECB Decision; Monthly Jobs Report; Dow Prints 17K First Time in History

The ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected but changes the monthly meetings to six-week intervals. The euro dropped under 1.36 briefly. The dollar jumps higher. The dollar/yen is above 102 at 102.20. The Monthly Jobs Report is 288K jobs and a 6.1% unemployment rate. The consensus estimate was for 215K jobs with a range of 199K to 290K jobs and a 6.3% unemployment rate so the number hits the top of the range. The rate drops two ticks from last month’s 6.3%. Whisper numbers were for 300K jobs. Last month’s report was 217K jobs and is revised higher to 224K jobs. The big revision is April now at 304K jobs up from the originally reported 282K; April had a three handle. The average hourly earnings remain at a very feeble +0.2% rate signaling that inflation remains in check. The 288K jobs are the fifth consecutive month above 200K. The average hours worked remains flat indicating that companies are easily handling the work load with the current work force. The labor participation rate is 62.8% for the third consecutive month and remains at lows not seen since the 1970’s. The 288K jobs is a welcome number but the jobs created are low-wage, part-time and temporary jobs. The U-6 unemployment rate is down one-tenth to 12.1%.

The 10-year yield jumps to 2.69% now settling-in around 2.67% and the 2-year yield leaps to 0.53% settling-in around 0.52%. The Dow prints above 17000 for the first time in history. Gold drops 17 bucks, -1.2%, to 1315 but is recovering. Ditto silver that was down -1.7%. The market bear are running for cover once again. The joy is choreographed perfectly from the other day when the Dow fell just short of 17K. Yesterday was a sideways move to continue the drama and then today the 17K prints after a joyous jobs number; the scenario is an ideal plot for a made-for-tv movie.

The bulls remain in full control. The market bears need RTH 59.12 and/or GTX 5030 or they got nothing. The bears are trying their hardest pushing GTX down to 5064 about 30 points from where they need to be to stop the bull party and lock in the market downside. The SPX 2-hour chart continues to top out as it takes a couple or few candlesticks to absorb the news this morning. The SPX daily and weekly charts will receive additional juice today due to the upside thrust to help keep the markets elevated for a few days. Today is an early close so the clock runs out in a couple hours at 1 PM EST. Trading will not resume until Monday morning, 7/8/14.

Note Added 11:08 AM:  GTX 5058. Bears have not given up; they keep pushing commodities lower to try and stop the bull stampede. TRIN is under one down at 0.79 insuring that the bulls will have a happy finish today. Yesterday the low TRIN was a signal that markets would remain buoyant, and they did. The two days of low TRIN readings indicate that markets should print a near-term top today or Tuesday. The VIX is down to 10.49 which also insures a happy bull day.

Note Added 4:50 AM: Keystone made corrections to the latest missives where trading resumes on Monday not Tuesday as previously stated. The holiday is today, Friday, Independence Day and US markets are closed. The bulls kept the party going into the early close at 1 PM yesterday with SPX printing a new all-time intraday high at 1985.89 and new all-time closing high at 1985.44. The Dow prints above 17K. Most traders are raping the long side especially since Fed Chair Yellen said stocks are undervalued. Why a Fed head would make such a comment remains a mystery but none the less the upside market orgy continues. Traders are simply exploiting the easy money conditions in play with most planning a quick exit once the confidence is lost in the central bankers. This is not healthy market behavior. The RSI on the 2-hour chart sneaks higher so the bulls are going to maintain the current SPX levels for a few more hours with the expectation remaining that equities will top out on Monday, perhaps Monday afternoon, or Tuesday morning. Bulls added some very short term juice with the upside thrust and momo yesterday. The higher dollar and effect on commodities will be key next week. GTX is 5064. Bears need GTX 5030 to stop the broad market rally. The SPXA150R explodes higher to 89. At 90 and above, it is a gift to short the markets; 89 is close enough so scaling into short positions here on out is a prudent strategy.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.