Monday, July 21, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Sideways Channel Standard Deviation Bands Squeezing in Tight

The struggle for market control continues with the bulls and bears fighting over the 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute. The red and green circles show the recent bear and bull crosses, respectively. Last Thursday's big loss created a negative 8/34 cross favoring bears but the Friday recovery created the positive cross and happy bulls but today's weakness creates a negative 8/34 cross ushering in market selling for the hours ahead.

The fight continues, however, since the 8 MA and 34 MA are only pennies from each other and the bulls are trying to create the positive 8/34 cross. The SPX is staggering sideways through the 1968, 1973 and 1976 S/R levels (see prior message for support and resistance levels). Price pokes up through 1973 R so the 1976 R is now in play. The 20-day MA is 1968.69 which forms a confluence with horizontal support and provides this level with serious street cred. Thus, price stumbles through the sideways 1968-1976 channel deciding which side it wants to break out from. Bulls win above 1976 and will send price higher to the 1980 R. Bears win big under 1968 which will quickly drop price to the 1960-1961 level for a critical bounce or die decision.

The indicators show a sideways chart pattern. Use the 50% and zero levels to gauge which side is winning. The RSI is a touch in favor of bulls above 50%. The stochastics, however, favor bears under 50%.The histogram and MACD line hug the flat zero line. The standard deviation bands (green lines) show another tight squeeze so a commitment on a strong directional move is likely on tap this afternoon or first thing in the morning. The green arrows show prior squeezes which result in 20-point moves one way of the other. Tight bands tell you a sharp strong move will occur but does not tell you what direction. Watch the 8/34 cross since it constantly identifies the winner moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:53 PM:  SPX 1975. The 8 MA on the 30-minute is 1970.87 and 34 MA 1971.58 so the bulls are pushing to create a positive cross with the 8 MA moving higher and the 34 MA sloping lower. Bears must create market weakness right away or they will fold like a cheap suit into the closing bell. The VIX is 12.64 dropping sending stocks higher. TRIN 1.05 a hair on the bear side of one. Bears must hold that 1976 R.

Note Added 3:39 PM: The bulls keep pushing higher with SPX at 1975 knocking on that 1976 R door. VIX 12.67. TRIN is down to 0.84 favoring the bulls and helping create market lift. The pending very sharp move described above is perhaps on tap for tomorrow's opening bell. The price action is sideways directionless like a drunk staggering along Times Square on a Saturday night. The ADX for the 30-minute chart is down at 12 showing no trend up, or down, in price whatsoever. Copper trades higher today moving JJC higher which helps the stock market bulls. Volatility is the key market direction driver currently; VIX 12.95 is the bull-bear line in the sand. At VIX 12.67 the bulls receive upside juice. Bears need the VIX above 12.95 then the bears need to turn a sector such as retail, financials or copper bearish to establish sustainable market selling. Right now, the bears are weak and need to push volatility higher to show they got game. The bears will receive a small feather for their caps if they can keep a lid on the markets by holding the SPX 1976 resistance.

Note Added 3:53 PM: SPX 1974. VIX 12.70. TRIN 0.91.

Note Added 3:56 PM:  Dollar.yen 101.39 so the slight increase in this currency pair from 101.30 this morning (weaker yen) helped create the market lift off the bottom today.

Note Added 4:01 PM: The bears are happy they held SPX 1976 resistance but the bulls are very happy they keep VIX under 12.95 since this will allow them to win tomorrow.

Note Added 4:07 PM: Netflix misses by a penny with 1.15 EPS and beats by a tiny hair on top line revenue with $1.34 billion versus $1.33 billion estimated. Traders push NFLX +2% higher on the knee-jerk reaction blessing the in-line results. As time goes on, NFLX keeps leaking lower, +1.5%.... +1.2% .... +0.8%..... hurry-up, buy a movie to help them out.

Note Added 4:14 PM: Chipotle is a hot tamale reporting 3.50 EPS trouncing the 3.06 estimate. Top line revenue is $1.05 billion versus the $990 million estimate. Sales are increasing with increasing traffic and increasing ticket prices. The popular restaurant is running on all cylinders. CMG gains +8%. Burrito’s are big business.

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