Sunday, June 15, 2014

Support, Resistance (SPX S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 6/16/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 6/16/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX prints new all-time highs above 1950. The bulls create a strong upside three-week rally running from 1860 to almost 1960, nearly 100 handles, +5%. Stocks pull back during the middle of the week last week but bounce again on Friday.

The SPX needs to back test the 20-day MA at 1918.07, and rising, and each day that passes this need increases. This is also the center band of the standard deviation bands which needs touched since price has violated the upper band. The 1923 is very strong support so if that fails a test of the 20-day MA is guaranteed. In a day or two the 20-day will be at the strong 1923 support which would set up an important bounce or die price test from this confluence.

The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is 1934.46, the 34 MA is 1936.39 and price is 1936.16, so the bulls may be able to create a positive 8/34 cross, and, if so, the bears will fold like a cheap suit. The bears must maintain the negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute and this will be tested tomorrow morning. Bulls will win if price remains at 1936 moving higher. Bears will win if price drops below 1934 and moves lower.

The SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1909.97 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. This multi-day indicator shows the bulls remaining in control. The market bears need to push price under 1910 to signal sustainable and extended downside selling. In general, bulls are fine above 1910.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1936, the bulls only need one point higher, to push up through 1937 and price will quickly accelerate to the moderate resistance levels at 1940 and 1942. A push through 1942 sends price higher to test the strong 1949 resistance. Watch to see if the S&P futures are positive overnight, if so, the bears are in trouble.

The bears need to push the SPX under 1928 to accelerate the downside. There is a confluence of support at 1923-1929. If price loses 1928, the test of the critical 1923-1924 support occurs next. The 20-day MA will likely be up towards this 1923 level at that time as well. The bounce or die decision from 1923-1924 will be extremely important. Failure at 1923-1924 will send price to 1910-1912 for another critical support test that determines the sustainable and extended path forward for markets. This is why bulls remain fine above 1910-1912. Below 1910-1912 is where the bears take firm hold of the markets. Failure at the 200 EMA at 1910 will quickly send price into the 1800's. A move through 1929-1936 is sideways action to begin the week.

Markets may idle sideways until the FOMC Rate Decision, Forecasts and Press Conference on Wednesday starting 2 PM EST. Fed Chair Yellen will take Q&A after she reads the tablets brought down from on high telling the markets how to trade. The Fed, BOJ and other central bankers are the market. Housing Starts on Tuesday morning are very key. Equities may create a major market pivot point on Wednesday afternoon which creates a multi-day and multi-week path forward.

1956 (6/9/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1955.55) (6/9/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1955.55)
1955.55 Previous Week’s High
1951 (6/9/14 All-Time Closing High: 1951.27) (6/9/14 Closing High for 2014: 1951.27)
1950
1949
1947
1945
1942
1940
1937.30 Friday HOD
1936.16 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
1936
1931
1929
1928
1927.69 Friday LOD
1926
1925.78 Previous Week’s Low
1925
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1923.57 June Begins Here
1923
1920
1919
1918.07 (20-day MA)
1917
1914
1912
1910
1909.97 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
1907
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1894
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1889
1888.75 (50-day MA)
1886
1885
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1882
1880
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1874
1872
1871
1868
1867
1865.67 (20-week MA)
1865
1862.60 (100-day MA)
1862
1859
1855
1853
1852
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1844.75 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1843
1842
1841
1840
1839
1838
1837
1835.03 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1835
1832
1831
1828
1827
1824
1820
1816
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)
1810
1809.93 (200-day MA; not tested for 19 months extremely odd behavior)
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1808
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1806
1805.75 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1803
1801
1800
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1796
1793
1791
1789.79 (50-week MA)
1788
1785
1783
1782
1781
1777
1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)
1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)
1770
1768
1763
1762
1759
1756
1752
1748

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