Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 6/18/14; FDX; FOMC Decision, Forecasts and Yellen Press Conference

Stockcharts is down so Keystone cannot post charts. The sideways market drama continues into the FOMC decision and statement this afternoon. Keybot the Quant remains long. Watch RTH 59.00 since the Keybot algo considers it the most important influence on market direction currently. Also JJC 37.59. The RTH is well above 59 creating upside in equities. JJC begins today at 37.26 and copper trades flat. The bulls need JJC 37.26 to move the SPX to and up through new all-time highs at 1951-1956. So watch copper as a key market parameter. Bears need weaker retail stocks. If the RTH loses 59 and the SPX loses 1934 and both remain bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side.

Global bellwether FDX beats on EPS and the top line and is up +3.6% pre-market but surprisingly the joy does not help futures. CAG hits a snag dropping -4.4% so the ag space is worth watching today including DBA, AGU, MOS, MON, POT, CF, IPI and others. The FOMC decision is 2 PM EST. Fed Chair Yellen's press conference and Q&A begins 2:30 PM. Markets will react to the news bites. Mortgage Applications plunge over -9% this week so homebuilders are worth watching.

For the SPX starting at 1942, the bulls only need two points, to touch the 1944 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur to 1949 in very quick order. Then price will decide to test the 1951-1956 all-time highs, or not. The bears need to push under 1934 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1935-1943 is sideways action and may be likely considering Yellen will not bring the tablets down from on high until 2 PM. Reference Keystone the Scribe's site for the chronology of daily market events. The dollar/yen is 102.15 off the 102.25 level that pumped the NIKK higher overnight. Bulls should be able to keep the stock market buoyant if the dollar/yen stays above 102. Under 102 and the market bears will rule. Interestingly, copper slips a touch negative.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.