Monday, June 16, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA is under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA moves higher to create a potential positive 8/34 cross that will place the bulls firmly in the driver's seat and send markets higher towards the all-time highs again.  (the positive 8/34 cross occurs see below). As highlighted this weekend and this morning, the 1940 and 1942 resistance levels are key and serve as a critical bounce or die level. The SPX is now deciding whether to bounce, or die. Considering the upward thrust, the market bears must send equities lower immediately to prevent the positive 8/34 cross, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit.

The green lines show long and strong indicators across the board so several candlesticks of upside would be expected which is bull-friendly. The key will be whether the 1942 R holds, or not. The indicators want matching and higher highs in price even after price may pause and relax a couple or more handles lower. A few candlesticks would be required to create neggie d and potentially an overbot RSI (stochastics are already overbot) to create a top so this is about one to three hours time which takes trading into this afternoon.

If the blue path plays out and the strong 1942 R holds, the bears win and push price lower to 1929 and 1923-1924. If purple path occurs, price pokes up through 1942, the bulls are going to push higher to 1949-1951 and perhaps another test of the all-time highs at 1951-1956. As this is typed, the 8 MA moves above the 34 MA, 1936.24 versus 1935.83, respectively, signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead and the bullish outcome described above. The bears are trying hard to push the SPX lower to negate the 8/34 cross. Bears got nothing unless they regain the negative 8/34 cross.

If the bears reverse the 8/34 cross it has to be with a sharp move lower in the SPX price within the next one-half hour or so; a subtle move lower will not help the bears. Thus, if the SPX does not drop hard within the hour, the bulls may simply run higher into Fed Chair Yellen's circus and sideshow on Wednesday afternoon. SPX HOD is 1941.15 not yet testing the strong 1942 R exactly and now printing 1939.07. Check that; 1938.96. The bears are trying to create the sharp move lower. Can they? The 1942 resistance level provides the market answer today. is information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:19 AM:  "Weeeelllll, doggies," as Jed Clampett would say, look at the bears try their best to create a downdraft sending the SPX under 1934, now almost eight points off the high. This price action will curl the 8 MA lower to attempt a reverse of the positive 8/34 cross. The market theatrics and drama is non-stop keeping bulls and bears on their toes.

Note Added 12:09 PM: The SPX moves lower to print a 1930 handle and bounces. The 8 MA is curled downwards but the 34 MA is moving lower as well so the bears are having trouble reversing the positive 8/34 cross. Bulls may want to travel higher to test the strong 1940-1942 resistance level as discussed above. The price action may be creating a sideways vibe through 1929-1942 into Wednesday. Nonetheless, bulls win above 1942 and bears win under 1928-1929. The 8 MA on the 30-minute chart is 1935.91 and will obviously move lower for a potential negative 8/34 cross if price stays below moving lower. If the SPX moves above 1936, the bears are folding and the bulls will run to the 1942 R and potentially 1949 R. Bears will maintain negative pressure if the SPX stays under 1935 moving lower. The retail sector remains the key influence on broad index direction currently. Watch RTH 58.98; price is under creating negativity. If the RTH moves above 58.98, the fix is in and the bulls will run equities higher. Bears can maintain negative market pressure if RTH stays under 58.98. Keybot the Quant remains long but is in position to flip short and will likely make the move to the bear side if the SPX drops under 1928.

Note Added 12:24 PM: The SPX is above 1936 so the bulls likely want to go back to 1940-1942 for another test of this critical resistance. Markets may play sideways games until the Fed on Wednesday afternoon.

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