Thursday, June 26, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The bulls staged a come back yesterday finally pushing up through 1956 resistance, then 1958 then attempted the break at the strong 1960 R, that would lead to new all-time highs, but failed. Price drops back under the 1956 support and 1951 support and now dances around the 1949 support. The bounce from the LOD at 1944.69 today is exactly off the 20-day MA at 1944.26 that has needed back kissed for several days.

The 8 MA is 1952.78 so as long as price stays under this level, and heading lower, bears are fine. If the SPX moves above 1953 and higher that is the first hint that the bears are going to fold like a cheap suit. SPX is at 1949.49.

The green lines show the positive divergence that formed after the strong price drop at the opening bell that creates the bounce. The MACD line is leaking lower, however, hinting at another trip lower. Further, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts hint at one more trip lower so a move down to test the 1940-1944 support area again is a reasonable expectation. The bears have no oomph. Copper, retail and many other sectors and parameters remain strongly bullish. RTH came down to tease the 59.04 bull-bear line in the sand but bounced. This appears the best chance for bears to create extended downside if it occurs.

The new moon is tomorrow morning, through the night time hours, and markets are typically bearish about two-thirds of the time through the new moon so perhaps markets will place a mini peak higher today that will lead to the lower lows at 1940-1944 tomorrow. The VIX is 11.92 remaining low, under 12, helping bulls. TRIN is 0.98 dead flat not favoring bulls or bears today. Bears need RTH under 59.04 to prove they have oomph, otherwise, their adventure to the downside this week will be short-lived. RTH is at 59.25. The beat goes on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:01 PM: SPX is above 1952 exactly where the 8 MA is at on the 30-minute chart. Bears must keep SPX under 1952 and move price lower quickly, otherwise, the bears will crumble as price moves to 1953 and higher. TRIN 0.96. VIX 11.91. RTH 59.25.

Note Added 12:06 PM:  SPX is 1951.80. The bears keep trying.

Note Added 6:32 AM on 6/27/14 (Friday): The SPX kept marching higher into yesterdays closing bell. The Dow sits on its 20-day MA, so watch which way price pivots, and the SPX bounced off its 20-day MA at 1944.56 yesterday, so this key moving average may play a key role today and early next week. June began at 1923.57 and there are only two days remaining. A new moon peaked about three hours ago and equities are typically weak moving through the new moon. Window dressing does not appear to be in play for the month end, quarter end and first-half year end on Monday (EOM, EOQ2, EOH1) since everyone is already long the stocks that outperformed; there is no reason to reposition. The Fed wine is sending all stocks higher. The Russell Rebalancing today will introduce a lot of volume. Consumer staples are already hit the last few days and are shunned in favor of tech for this rebalancing so watch XLP and XLK. Market bears got nothing despite the market softness. Watch RTH 59.04. Bulls are fine as long as RTH stays above 59.04. Bears got nothing unless the RTH drops under 59.04. The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart above still signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead but the 8 MA is about to slice up through the 34 MA to signal bull fun and a run to the all-time highs again today. The market bears must begin Friday on the weak side and move the SPX under 1954 (the 8 MA on the 30-min) as quick as possible. If the SPX remains above its starting number at 1957, and floats higher, and touches the strong 1960 handle, bingo, this will launch the bulls into victory and new all-time highs into the weekend. Bears must keep the SPX as far under 1960 as possible. So bears need the SPX under 1954 from the opening bell and heading lower, and also RTH under 59.04, or they got nothing. If the bulls keep the SPX above 1955 from the start, they have a shot at rallying to the all-time highs in the high 1960's today. S&P futures are -5 three hours before the opening bell.

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