Tuesday, June 24, 2014

SPX 2-Hour Chart Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence

The bears are smacked in the teeth again as is always the case. On the 2-hour yesterday, the neggie d wanted to see a smack down and weakness but the long and strong MACD line in the VST wanted another high in price and voila, over the last few candlesticks that scenario plays out (reference the previous SPX 2-hour chart). Note that now price is higher but the MACD line is clearly negatively diverged. The red and maroon lines show near universal negative divergence across all indicators and time frames currently. The RSI is trying to print a higher high in the VST and will probably succeed thus price likely needs from one to three candlesticks (from two to six hours) again to top out and begin a more extended down move. The projection would be for equities to top out today due to the negative divergence and move down towards the lower trend line at 1955-ish.

The SPX prints a new all-time intraday record high at 1968.17. The 20-day MA at 1941.08 and rising needs back tested. Note that the 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bears made a run lower yesterday to try and create an 8/34 MA negative cross but fell flat on their face. Bears got absolutely nothing without the 8/34 negative cross on the 30-minute SPX chart.

The dollar/yen moves higher to 102.14 well off the lows under 101.90 only a couple hours ago. Banzai! The rise in the dollar/yen up through the 102 pivot reflects a weaker yen so the US stock market moves higher. Market bears need to push the dollar/yen under 102 to introduce equity weakness today, otherwise, they got nothing. The BOJ, Fed and other central bankers are the market. Traders are drunk off Fed wine, staggering around the trading floor buying any stock that has a ticker symbol, and then kneeling in front of the Fed shrine in the corner praying for continued stimulus and easy money. Everyone sings, "for she's a jolly-good fellow" to honor Fed Chair Yellen; the QE Queen. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:05 PM:  VIX is flat and TRIN is at 1.35 firmly in the bear camp today despite the higher stock market. Equities should weaken today, otherwise, the TRIN needs to drop under one and head down towards 0.9 and 0.8.  Dollar/yen 102.12. The SPX is 1966.37. The SPX HOD at 1968.17 remains in place thus far. Markets float sideways at elevated levels since the dollar/yen remains buoyant. The status is quo. The bulls are cruising occasionally slapping the bears in the face for fun and 100% confident that stocks will never sell off.

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